Monday, May 9, 2022

UFT Election 2022 is officially over: Norms Numbers - The Big If - Retiree Turnout

Monday, May 9, 8 AM  - The UFT election just officially ended. The vote count begins tomorrow at 8 AM. I intend to be there for the entire time.

And how about that party coming up win or lose. Celebrate the coalition and working together.

So this is my last chance to make a few predictions without having people call me a defeatist. I'm going to take a shot at making some educated guesses.One thing to note - newbies in UFT elections are always amazingly optimistic, while old timers are much more realistic. But we are warned not to share our true views so as not to discourage people. But with the election over, I can let loose.

I'm usually pretty good at predicting outcomes based on past history but this year things are different for a number of reasons, which I delved into in my 3 part "Why is this election different series:

Of course  the Winner is..... the garbage can caucus - people who throw the ballot in the garbage consciously or unconsciously  since non-voters will be an overwhelming majority. There's a new wrinkle this year I had never realized - enormous numbers of people who never got a ballot and never even realized there was an election going on. 

If turnout is as usual, look for a bigger win than expected for Unity. Less than in previous years, but in the 70% range. In 2016 Unity got about 40K votes and oppo got around 13k. That's a pretty big gap to close if turnout is the same.

The retiree vote is the focus of attention: 60k mailed out (How many actually got to people?) 2016 turnout 37%

The major hope for UFC has been that the 85% pro-Unity retiree vote won't hold this time due to MulgrewCare. But the question is how deep do Unity losses go? 

In order to look at potentials, we must start with a base and we use 2016 (2019 with 4 caucuses running was anomaly). In 2016 we had MORE/NA vs Unity as slate vs slate, with Solidarity not attaining slate status, but still in the race. Note the low turnout numbers, especially in the in-service divisions.

As you can see in the chart below from 2016 (thanks to Jon Halabi),  24,500 retirees voted and with the 23.5 max limit, each vote counted for .95ish.  Unity got 20K and oppo 4k. Unity got just over 20K from the entire working corps. So 50% of their vote was retirees.

So let's look at the possibilities in the retiree vote. In last year's retiree chapter election, just as the news of MulgrewCare was breaking, Retiree Advocate (RA) for just short of 7K (30%) and Unity got around 16K, compared to 2016, some serious slippage but way short of being a major difference maker in this election. There's too much ground to make up in the working divisions.  Turnout in 2016 was 37% so there's a chance for over 40%.

A key is turnout since anything above 24K will lean hard to UFC due to MulgrewCare. So retiree returns are a key. 

Ballots not received or put aside

I had been fairly optimistic of an increase in the 27-30K range, but in the past few days grew a bit discouraged.

I found that out last night when I called a former colleague to wish her a happy birthday and asked if she voted and she said "for what?" She never got a ballot. Now if there electronic voting like we requested, she still would have had time to vote before the Monday 8AM deadline.

I had the same issue with a retiree I met the other day who did have her ballot but thought she had time to mail it until Monday. Two lost votes for UFC. Unity sure knows what it is doing when it comes to vote suppression. My former colleague who is not union political said on tonight's call: They (Unity) sound like Republicans.

So let's call it an uptick in retiree vote output and let's add some Unity pissed off over MulgrewCare voting for UFC. Don't forget that Unity Caucus is massive, with retiree outposts all over the country pushing their propaganda. I'd bet one third of retirees have links to Unity. But if that 30% vote last year is a base, we have to see some expansion. Just how much above 30%? If it's 40% of retiree votes and say 26K vote, that gives UFC over 10K and Unity 16K, still too big a difference to make up. If it broke 14k Unity and 12K UFC, then it gets interesting. But in the real world it has to be bigger than 2016. Say 40-45%? That gets interesting.

The High School Vote: 22K mailed out, 7 ex bd seats at stake: 2016 turnout 20%

This is where UFC has its best chance. Unity has not won the high schools on its own since 1993 (they lost in 1991 and in 1985 too). They only won in 2007,10, 13 with New Action help. HS wins used to be as high as 3400 when the oppo was very strong in the then big schools, especially in Manhattan. But the big school breakup has helped drive down union interest, though that didn't help Unity much.

In 2016, when NAC switched sides, MORE/NA won with 2275. Add over 100 for Solidarity and we start with a base of 2,400. Unity got under 2100. So, starting with these numbers as a base, turnout is again the issue. If HS turnout is the same, it is a horse race, with UFC slightly favored. 

Unity ran a hard HS campaign

But this time Unity campaigned harder in the high schools than it has in 20 years. In the past they seemed content to give the hs to the oppo - 7% of the ex bd looks a little democratic - very little while 100% of the ex bd for Unity looks Russia like. But this time they want to stamp out the opposition or at least divide it. In 2016 a key block of votes came from Francis Lewis HS where I was involved in a GOTV campaign. With Arthur's switch to Unity, that will pull votes away from UFC in that large HS. Swap 100 votes and the election is even.

UFC also ran hard HS but did they GOTV?

But counter to that is that UFC also ran a hard HS campaign with a lot more people in a lot of high schools running in the election. The key is how well they did in getting the people in their own schools to vote. For me this is the great mystery. 

At times UFC people seemed more enamored of social media than the in school door to door GOTV. And don't forget that with the spring break and the limited time to get replacement ballots, the GOTV is up in the air. UFC HS people did go out and leaflet other schools, which I don't count on making as much a difference as rousing your own building. 

I really have no feel for how the GOTV went. If we win by a hair -- that is status quo - the usual election. If we win big - over 55%- that is a sign. Usually 5k HS vote. If it goes to 7K or above that is good for UFC. If 6K HS people vote, that would be a win for UFC. Maybe a bigger win than expected. If 5K it's 50-50. If god forbid it turns into a big win for Unity - say 55% -- then I leave this election scratching my head and retiree immediately from UFT politics.

If we lose the HS it is a bomb for UFC and I don't know if the coalition survives. After all that work and win nothing? People may just go back to their own caucuses, a win for Unity.  

Does turnout hit 30% or even 25?? That would be a potential big win for UFC, but could also reflect Unity increased turnout. 

Prediction based on word of mouth - narrow win for UFC besed on precedent and larger force in the hs. But low turnout would be a condemnation of election tactics.

One more note. HSVP Janella Hinds is popular but she can also get less votes than the UFC HS people out of the hs -- she would win due to non hs votes. Does it hurt her if UFC wins the HS? She is considered a strong contender for next UFT president, is popular with many high school teachers -- but they are not the majority of the union. See below for my comments on elem vp Karen Alford -- who by the way I was on a committee with back in 1999 when Randi set up a charter school committee under the chair of then Elem VP Michelle Bodden - than also a rumored Randi successor who disappeared into the UFT charter school with Mulgrew taking the role --- Randi's biggest mistake - among many.

Middle Schools - What is possible? 11k ballots out. 4 Ex bd seats, 2016 turnout 24%

These are only grades 6-8 schools and 4 Ex Bd seats on the line. 

Some people thought the middle schools were winnable this time. We certainly made it a point to flyer as many large MS as possible -- but as I've said, flyering has much less impact than having a person on site and I didn't see enough UFC middle school people to close the gap.

In 2016 Unity got only 1650 - 61% and oppo got only 860 for MORE/NA and almost 200 for Solidarity. If turnout goes up to 30%, can the oppo close the gap? It's a 600 vote difference so with big turnout is closeable.
Definitely Unity is favored here but I would expect a closer election - maybe 55% for Unity? If UFC gets in the 50-50 range, that ie an echo of 1991, the only time the oppo won both hs and ms.

Elemantary: 36k ballots, 26% return in 2016

I started this election telling people we could win the elementary schools if we formed a strong committee and worked target districts where we have strength. 

It didn't happen and there is not only no chance to win, but a potential big blowout for Unity. I saw some fire in the eyes in a few elementary people but mostly a flicker.

However, hope springs eternal. I was a proud elementary school teacher and often hear high school oppo people disparaging remarks - even some people wanted to break the high schools out of the union. But the turnout in elem was considerably higher than high schools.

Look at the 2016 numbers. Unity had over 7K votes - 74%. MORE/NA 2300 and Solidarity 200. That's a serious gap and my hopes were to close that down to a reasonable number that could be bridged in the next election. Unity CL and their district reps driving them dominate elementary - I'd bet every single mail box got a leaflet. Most didn't get UFC so have no concept there is a UFC. 

But let's play the output game. What if it goes over 30%? Increased output is better for UFC but with the relative weakness in elementary schools I'm not so sure.

Start with a Unity base of 7k and an oppo base of 2500. 5K would be a doubling and a victory of sorts for UFC if Unity stays at 7K or falls below. A drop to 5k for them would be a sign that despite no campaigning, the impact of Covid and the UFT response had a big effect. Plus other failures on the part of Unity.

One note - Elem VP Karen Alford is my pick for succeeding Mulgrew is the overall election goes bad for him -- like under 60%. And a big number in elementary schools looks good for her.

Functionals: 60K ballots, 2016 turnout 16%, Unity 75%

This is always a big win for Unity - and includes retirees who are counted separately. So this report is without the retiree vote ---

In 2016 Unity got about 7600 and the oppo about 2500, a major gap along the lines of elementary schools.

But a few things have happened in the functiomas. OT/PT elected oppos people. I hear social workers are pissed. Every secretary I met is unhappy. Paras are the big nut for Unity and their leader Shelvy Young is a dynamo - in fact if Unity were smart, she would be a great replacement for Mulgrew. Sooner rather than later.

Will returns go up? Even 20% would be a big move. 25% would close the gap. But I don't think UFC ran very much of an effective campaign aimed at functionals. Look for the usual big win for Unity - I'd take 65% for UFC as a win.

Summary

If we lose the HS it is a bomb for UFC and I don't know if the coalition survives. After all that work and win nothing? People may just go back to their own groups to avoid all the angst of building coalition consensus. 

A HS win would give UFC 7 Ex Bd with reps from all the groups. They'd have to work together. A long-shot win in MS would be massive with 11 dynamo Ex bd members and a base to build for the next election.

Sunday, May 8, 2022

Unity Caucus Election Violation at IS 44M as Unity Chapter leader mistreats UFC Retiree



Here is another example of an abusive Unity Chapter leader mistreating a UFT retiree, as if MulgrewCare was not enough mistreatment of retirees by Unity Caucus. I reported on the PS 107K story:

The chapter leader of IS 44M was even more over the top, violating numerous chancellor regs and UFT election rules -- and also happens to be a prominent Unity candidate. Just a few photos of her work at the school - with Unity posters all over the place.

Given that her actions could spark on investigation over these violations we are not using her name in this report.

The report is from retiree Sheila Zukowsky of Retiree Advocate, who has been active in UFT elections for the first time -- yes, due to MulgrewCare - as she explains in the excellent podcast with Noah on his excellent PD podcasts. It is a great listen:

I was interviewed regarding my aborted attempt to flyer the IS44M building for the podcast  "Professional Development: The New York City Teacher Podcast".

This is the link if you care to listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAmcTvxDHdU&list=PLxHXlMQexW5zerKJGi0jIh8zmMX6AlJnU&index=43




 
 
 
Here is Sheila's written report which will be incorporated into the general election complaint being filed by United for Change.
 
I entered the former IS 44 M building at 100 W 77 St, Manhattan, at about 2 pm on April 14, 2022 in order to distribute informational  flyers to UFT members working in the building for the UFT election ending on May 9, 2022.

When I entered the building, I saw each of the 3 doors in the vestibule all had Unity flyers on every one, plus two in the lobby: one on a pillar, and one on the the security guard's plexiglass partition facing the public,  which was the first thing I saw when I  walked through the vestibule doors intro the lobby of the building. 

I was startled by the display of electioneering materials that were prohibited by the Chancellor's Regulations which was apparently going on with the blessing of the administrations of the 2 separate schools that occupied the building. The posting of these materials were in clear violation of Chancellor's Regulation D-130, which specifically states in Section I. B. 3. that material supporting candidates or slates may not be posted or displayed in a school building except on union bulletin boards in areas closed to students.

I told the security guard who I was and why I was there,  She called one of the two schools, which was apparently MS 245 and spoke to someone looking to receive permission for me to enter. I was told to wait and someone would see to me shortly. A woman arrived in the lobby of the school who did not introduced herself as from M245 as as having been "pulled out of class" but did not introduce herself further. I assumed I introduced myself and stated what my business at the school was. I presumed my interlocutor was the principal, an assistant principal, or someone else involved in the management of the school.

She was polite and calm but nevertheless was persistent in arguing  with me about my right to distribute election flyers at the school. She repeatedly told me that I could not be there on "Department of Education time" although I explained that according to the Chancellor's Regulation D-130 I.C.3., this prohibition was relevant to DOE personnel only, and that I was not a DOE employee. Nevertheless, she continued to make the same argument over and over, until I offered to show her the Chancellor's Regulation in question as well as other documents affirming my right to distribute literature. At that moment, she relented, which indicated to me that she had been aware all along that she knew I had the right to be there but was attempting to wear me down in the hope that I would go away.   At that moment, she consented to allow me to distribute the literate but she said she would have to "watch me" while I was doing it.

It was only in getting to the 4th floor, where the school's office was located, that I found out she was not a school administrator at all but the school's chapter leader. I found this out when I asked her if the  schools' administrators approved of the  posting UFT electioneering material in the public areas of the school, as I knew it was in violation of the Chancellor's Regs, and that the school principals were supposed to enforce this prohibition, according to D-130, Section I, B., 7.

At that moment, I realized I was not speaking to a school administrator, as she replied, "Well, if you had been paying attention, you would have noticed my picture on the flyer since I am a chapter leader in this building".

When we got to the office where the mailboxes were located, she stood there, in the tiny office, watching me as I placed flyers in 3 mailboxes. Then she announced that she had to be at an assembly in 10 minutes, and insisted that I leave and give the flyers to the school secretary, who was sitting nearby, for distribution. 

Therefore the Chapter Leader again committed a violation of the Chancellor's Regs by asking the secretary to distribute the literature during Department of Education time, which, as a DOE employee, she was prohibited from doing.   

When I asked the secretary if that was ok, she just shrugged. It seemed to me that the secretary did not know or did not want to admit to me whether or not she should be taking orders from the Chapter Leader, especially orders which would have her violate the Chancellor's Regulations.

In all, I feel that during the episode described above, the following Chancellor's Regs in D-130, Section I, B were violated by the Chapter Leader and indeed, the school's principal:

1. The use of any Department of Education school during school/business hours by any person, group, organization, committee, etc., on behalf of, or for the benefit of any elected official, candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee is prohibited.

3.  No material supporting any candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee may be distributed, posted, or displayed in any school building except as noted in Section I.B.4 below:
 
4. Staff mailboxes and union bulletin boards in schools and district and central headquarters offices are to be used for the following purposes only:
(2) by the union for the dissemination of union-related materials. Toward that end, the union may:
a. Place materials advocating the election of a candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee in staff mailboxes.
b. Post materials advocating the election of a candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee on union bulletin boards located in areas closed to students.
7. The principal is responsible for ensuring that unauthorized material is not posted, distributed or displayed.

I would like this violation to be corrected.

Thank you,

Sheila Zukowsky
UFT Retiree Advocate Caucus

 

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Dear UFT Member of PS 107K - How Did The UFC Fliers Disappear? The Chapter Leader Did it

As I reported the other day, a contingent of Retiree Advocate were out in front of PS 107K in Park Slope to leaflet arriving staff with the same leaflet that the chapter leader had threatened to remove from the mail boxes - and apparently he did remove them, thus violating DOE and UFT and Department of labor election rules. I mean there was actually a chancellor's reg he violated. Try to imagine the sickness of these people -- taking stuff out of mailboxes.

The late George Schmidt told me a story about how the Unity Caucus version in Chicago used to do the same thing. So George actually mailed his newsletter through the post office - which is official US Mail and a federal violation for tampering. That year  - I think 2001 - he helped an oppo caucus win that election. If I'm still around for the next election and we raise funds we might try that for schools run by selected Unity scum.

Now my friends are kind-hearted and didn't mention his name. I wanted to but they pointed out we would be subjecting him to possible OSI investigations. Frankly, he deserves it but UFT members  don't rat others out no matter how despicable they are. By the way- Unity people have no such compunction and have actually been filing anonymous complaints against opposition people with OSI. Yes, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus. After the election we have so much delicious stuff to write about.

Here is Gloria's report on Facebook.

Electioneering at PS107K: How Did The Fliers Disappear?

Tuesday, May 3rd - bright and early. A contingent of UFT retirees from the United For Change coalition greeted staff at PS107K as they entered their school building after a long holiday weekend. Election fliers had been placed in all UFT member mailboxes the previous Wednesday, but the staff had not received them. 

That is because the school's Chapter Leader did not want United for Change fliers placed in staff mailboxes. He told our election volunteer that he felt that United for Change fliers would "influence" members about how to vote, and he threatened to remove our fliers from the school's mailboxes should he find them there. According to the teachers we spoke to on Tuesday morning, that is exactly what he did.
So, we showed up on Tuesday morning. In order to educate, rather than influence the staff, we attached the following note to the fliers we put in their hands:

 Dear UFT Member of PS 107,
        Last Wednesday, April 27 in the early afternoon, this flier about the current UFT election was placed in your school mailbox. It seems that you might not have received it. Therefore, today we are putting it directly into your hands.
      Thanks for your consideration,
       The United For Change/UFT Slate

We also made sure to visit the mailboxes after the school day started, and were able to provide the staff with additional information about the United for Change slate. Our reception at the school was overwhelmingly positive, and hopefully, we helped the UFT represented members of PS 107K to make well informed choices about the UFT election.

 

Thursday, May 5, 2022

Missing UFT Election Ballot? Fill out this form for our protest of the process that left so many without ballots

Let me remind you that electronic voting would have solved this and other problems. 

We have heard of a number of members who did not receive ballots for this year’s UFT election. Some members requested replacement ballots that did not arrive. 

If you did not receive a ballot for the 2022 UFT election, please take a minute to fill out this form: http://bit.ly/missingballot

Please spread the word by sharing with your friends, colleagues, and networks.
 

 

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

#UFTElections2022 - Unity Caucus Voter Suppression? Let me count the ways, Is it Time to Fire the AAA?



The ultimate vote suppressors are the Unity chapter leaders and the district reps who encourage them who are telling their principals or security to not allow us in to stuff mail boxes. Some have physically blocked people or threatened to pull our lit when we leave. There's one district where this has happened more often and the district rep is actually on the election committee. But we'll deal with those stories another time after the full complaint has been written up. Here a few picture of our protest at one such school. 


I went in to leaflet a school in Rockaway on April 27 and had a nice conversation with the secretary. She is close to retirement and I told her about MulgrewCare which she knew nothing about. I asked if she voted in the UFT election. She never got a ballot. Neither did her daughter she said. She asked how she could get a replacement and I told her the only way at this point was to go to 120 Broadway. This is 12 days before ballots are due. I'm pretty sure she would have voted UFC. Maybe  her daughter too. As I report below, in 2016 she would have been allowed to call AAA. Not this time. Maybe the expectation of a closer election led to the union leadership issuing "instructions" to the AAA. I must say, this is the first time I'm beginning to suspect collusion. And I'm not alone. If we win, would be pay AAA millions of dollars to run the election again, especially with electronic voting? The AAA has a dog in the race.

Wednesday, May the 4th Be With You

I've written about Unity Caucus voter suppression before:

UFT/Unity Election2022 Scams: Voter Suppression di... 

But I get increasingly agitated as stories come in.

We begin with the premise that lower vote totals favor Unity and while they mouth the words people should vote there are a bunch if suppression tactics.
The major one was refusing electronic voting - imagine if we had it. You don't get your ballot? Simple - go on line and vote. In fact we could have save loads of money in paper ballots. But I would have argued for a dual system. With electronic voting people could vote right up to the Monday morning deadline. 

Did I say Monday morning deadline? More on that later.

Stories keep rolling in about UFT members who did not get their ballots. The deadline to ask for a replacement was artificially restricted to the last day of the spring break. So UFC people who were going around their schools to ask if people received their ballots lost over a week. 

Think of it. Ballots sent out April 8 and last day of school before spring break was April 8 and expect a few days to get them. The last day of school before the break was Thursday April 14. 

I smell something fishy because we had never faced such restrictions before. We asked for an extension and they gave us one day. Monday April 25 5PM. We know of cases where people called an on one picked up. When they reached someone aftter 5 they were told too bad. You can come down and get a ballot in person but only on April 28 and 29th. 

There are even some suspicions that if a Unity person didn't get a ballot a behind the scene arrangment will be made. Stories are floating around but I can't say if they are true.

I can remember election years where people had weeks to get a replacement. The argument from Unity is that AAA said they couldn't guarantee the replecement would reach people in time if after April 25. But so what? If not in time it still gives them a shot.

James Eterno has written about suppression on the ICE/UFT blog:

How did the UFT do in the past on this issue? In 2016 a member could call for a ballot up to one week before the ballots were going to be counted. This is what we wrote in 2016 at election time on May 17 when ballots were due on May 25 to be counted May 26:

Tomorrow is the last day to call AAA at 1 800 529-5218 to get a duplicate ballot.

The UFT gave you up until one week before the election deadline in 2016 to request a ballot if you didn't get one but this year they need two weeks. That makes no sense as we have already shown the Postal service numbers.

There is only one possible explanation for the UFT making the deadline two weeks before ballots are counted to call for a ballot: Voter Suppression. 

In my view, the UFT feels a low turnout helps Unity Caucus, which is their major (really only) concern.

How many people did not get a ballot? We have no way of knowing.

Then there is the due date and time the ballot must be received by. Monday May 9 at 9 AM? Are they kidding? The morning of the day after a weekend? Shouldb't it be at the very least midnight so Monday mail delivery counts? And should it have been on a Monday at all? Imagine you mail it out tomorrow- Thursday -- almost no chance of it getting there. 

There are people who have not yet voted and if they don't do so today or tomorrow they have little chance of getting there on time.

I will demand a count of late ballots as a member of the election committee. I'd bet ballots will be coming in for days. Postmark should count.

The actual voting times when you think of school days where people work to get out the vote over the election period, assuming mail send out on April 8 should be received by April 12 was in reality a total of 3 working days before the vacation and zero time for replacements by mail. 

UFC people have been beating the bushes in their schools since spring break. For those who didn't get a ballot, too late. Some misplaced the ballot? Ask for a replacement? Too late. But there are people who still had the ballot as late as yesterday - let's face it - UFT elections are not primary on the minds of most people.

I'm not going to claim that these suppression tactics are enough to lose UFC the election. But they will affect the vote totals. And that is important. Even if we lose, there is a big difference if Mulgrew gets 80% of 60%. 

I'll get into my range of expected numbers later or tomorrow.

Check out Halabi's latest:

If Mulgrew wins…

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

#NPE2022Philly - Network for Public Education - Real Ed Reformers Strike Back Against Ed Deform Empire - Building networks of resistance

The Network for Public Education is alive and well after a few years of a pandemic related hiatus. The NPE is the wall of resistance and attracted about 300 people from all over the nation. We had 4 UFC candidates there. No one from Unity was there -- as expected. I mean why join the battle to defend public education, except to make pronouncement every so often?
Tuesday, May 3, 2022

I'm just recovering from a weekend with some of the best activists in the nation fighthing back against Ed Deform and I'm inspired. The only other NPE conference I attended was in North Carolina in 2016, ironically in the midst of another UFT election campaign. I posted two reports then:

This conference has been delayed for two years and I was hesitant to go to what could have been - of could be - a super spreader event. But I felt I had to go. And I'm glad I did (though I did have some aches and a few other potential symptoms yesterday - better today.) I don't have the energy today to post extensively but if you want to get the flavor check out the workshops offered. 

https://npeaction.org/conference-schedule/

What could be better than seeing Jamaal Bowman in action? And the treat of Diane Ravitch interviewing Little Steven Van Zaant on Sunday morning? There was so much more going. And Garry Rubinstein telling the Teach for America story -- his blog is known by people all over the nation: Gary Rubinstein's Blog

I got to meet and chat a bit with David Berliner, a major voice:  David Berliner - Wikipedia --  National Education Policy Center . I haven't read him yet but intend to.  Collateral Damage: How High-stakes Testing Corrupts American Education

Of course hearing the great Jamaal Bowman on high stakes testing was a treat. His co-presenter was Port Washington Supt Michael Hynes and he was dynamic and funny and I am now a big fan.
@MikeHynes5

I wrote back in 2016:

How can you go wrong getting to chat with Leonie Haimson, Carol Burris, Katie Lapham, Michael Elliot, Fred Smith and so many others I am blanking on. I hung out with Beth Dimino and through her got to hang with the amazing Long Island and Westechester NYSAPE/Opt-Out leaders like Terry Kalb, Lisa Rudley, Jeannette Deutermann.

Many of the same people were there. I had dinner with Leonie Friday night and we had a big crew hang out Saturday night at a Mexican restaurant and then the hotel bar where we witnessed Leonie's birthday at midnight. Leonie wrote on FB:

Thank you all! I had a great birthday at the annual Network for Public Education - NPE conference in Philly, getting drunk Sat. night with friends Lisa Platt-Rudley Jeanette Brunelle Deutermann Norm Scott Gary Rubinstein Jake Jacobs & others; then coming home Sunday on the train with Diane Silvers Ravitch.

Gary and Jake and Katie Lapham who was there are all candidates on the UFC slate -- fighters for public education. Need I tell you no Unity people were at the conference. 

These conferences are as much about making connections to build networks of resistance. I heard people from many states and even a guy who works for a Canadian teacher union and learned about the amazing organizing they are doing to fight back for public education. The clear message of the conference was that the deformers with right wing and Republican support are coming for the public schools and we are at the inflection point.

Here are just a few of the photos I took.


 

Michael Hynes, Lisa Rudley, Jamaal Bowman

Jeanette Deuterman




From Fred Smith who heroically drove down Saturday morning for the day.

Image
Long Island Opt Out's Deutermann, NYSAPE's Rudley, District 16's Rep. Bowman




Jamaal Bowman
Image
Hynes and Norm Scott sitting next to me

Thursday, April 28, 2022

NYT Article Eviscerates MulgrewCare: Medicare Advantage Plans Often Deny Needed Care, Federal Report Finds

....a patient had to wait five weeks before authorization to get a CT scan to assess her endometrial cancer and to determine a course of treatment. Such delayed care can negatively affect a patient’s health, the report noted.

What we've been saying all along for the past years. Unity hacks called protesting retirees lyers and shysters and mocked those going to court. Until they won. If you are a retiree and vote for Unity this is what they want to do to you. Sure, if you are healthy you might not notice much of a difference. When you get sick you will. 

But even more important, the neo-liberal Unity/UFT machine supports plans that will eventually eliminate Medicare altogether and then it's Katy Barr the door for the privatizers.

Investigators urged increased oversight of the program, saying that insurers deny tens of thousands of authorization requests annually.

UFT Election 2022: And the Winner is..... Don't be a member of the Garbage Can Caucus

The overwhelming majority of UFT active members in elections over the past two decades - over 75% - are collectively known as:
  • garbage can caucus - ballot goes into circular file
    DON'T BE ONE OF THESE VOTERS

  • I don't give a crap caucus
  • a plague on both your houses" caucus 
There are signs these caucuses will be the big winners in the current election.
 
A major hope of the United for Change coalition has been to Get Out the Vote while the main goal of Unity has been to mouth GOTV while doing what it could to suppress the vote by rejecting electronic voting (which is used in many other areas of the union, including chapter and SBO elections and limiting the deadline (already passed) for those who don't get ballots to get a replacement. 

Some Unity CL have been telling their principals to deny entry to UFC lit and I will be targeting them by name as info comes in and holding their district reps accountable. We have at least two reports of CL suppression in a district where the rep is on the election committee -- shameful.

I've always maintained that the long-term key to beating Unity is having strong activists in every division of the UFT in the schools. People who can rouse a sleepy electorate and get them to vote. 
 
While retirees are always the most motivated voters in every election - that was good for Unity in the past. This year they are once again the main activated base in the UFT who I believe will vote in its highest totals ever, but this time with a different twist due to MulgrewCare. Will the increased turnout go to Unity or UFC? I'm betting on the latter. But will it be enough to counter general in school apathy?

One candidate reported such a level of disillusionment and fatigue in her school that the UFT elections is not even a pimple on the radar of many.
 
UFC activists have been going around their schools and are finding that even this week, they are discovering many people who have not bothered to vote yet. One guy got 6 people to vote in the past few days. That bodes ill for the turnout if even in schools where someone has been talking about the election on a regular basis for months and people have not yet voted. There just aren't enough people doing that.

So even if there is an uptick from in school voters, the winner of this election might be the Apathy Caucus, which would actually be a win for Unity since Apathy is what they thrive on. Good for Unity and the center right Democratic Party, bad for the union and the membership.
 
Let's hope we are in for a pleasant surprise. Even if Unity wins, if the margins shrink due to turnout that is a move in the right direction. If working UFT member turnout is 25% -- that's a bummer for all. If retiree per centage of the vote is 50% of the total voters the future for the membership is even dimmer than it has been as the Adams/Bloomberg tandem ready for an all out attack on public schools and the promotion of charters.

Lydia on a Professional Development podcast
Meanwhile -- check this podcast out by one of my fave podcasters (I appeared on it twice) with one of my fave people who I bonded with during this election who I hope will be on the UFT HS Ex Bd:

A new Professional Development podcast episode dropped last night!

Lydia Howrilka:
"I was interviewed- thanks to UFC for coaching me in the specifics of transferring before the 2005 Contract!- and while I talk a bit about Solidarity and my own story, I try to throw jabs at Unity and endorse UFC in the process."

Please share on your Social media.

 
 

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

UFT/Unity Election2022 Scams: Voter Suppression disenfranchises members, Unity Backs E4E 6 Candidate WECU Scam with two full pages in NY Teacher in attempt to draw votes from UFC

The 2-page WECU spread is a violation of the terms of the election as laid out at the first committee meeting. We (the election committee) approved written documents with a vote. The documents state:

"Slates- Each caucus gets two facing pages...." "Independent candidate ads are 4.5 inches wide by 5.5 inches tall."

"Slate Voting- A minimum of 40 candidates for officer and executive board is required for a slate designation."

Who decided to change the rules that we approved as an election committee? It is really underhanded to unilaterally change the terms of the election at this point.

I've often maintained that if you scratch you will find E4E/WECU and Unity align on many issues. 

I should have gotten 5 other guys named Norm and run a NORM Caucus slate and get two full pages in the NY Teacher.  Damn, I missed my chance. But E4E/WECU did exactly that and Unity helped them - and ignored election committee rules.

"In my small school at least 5 people didn't get a ballot." - A CL

The confusion about getting ballot replacements is another Unity scam to suppress the vote as the deadline was 5 PM yesterday. Unity using AAA excuse about mail delivery is a phony vote suppression scheme. See Election BallotUFT/Unity Sqeezes People Into Tight Deadline

#UFTElection2022 - Unity doesn't want Turnout, Tur... 


ICEUFT Blog: UNITY'S VOTER SUPPRESSION CONTINUES - The Unity dominated UFT Election Committee rejected electronic voting or in-school balloting early in the election process for this year's UFT election. This is despite the fact that the Union uses electronic voting for SBO and Chapter Leader and Delegate elections. In addition, the UFT uses in-school balloting for contract votes.

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Call them the Unity Caucus scams of the 2022 UFT elections. 

Faux ballot replacement deadline

I wrote about the massive use of people who work for the UFT being paid by our dues using their positions to promote Unity. UFT Election 2022: Unity Caucus Theft of Service .... Example: Teacher goes for pension consulation and receives a Unity flyer from the consultant.  

And of course the faux deadline imposed supposedly by the AAA over the deadline for getting replacement ballots. I'm going to demand we get access to AAA lists of whose ballots were actually received by AAA. I'd bet thousands have been disenfranchised. A UFC rep went into a school to stuff boxes yesterday and spoke with the secretary who had not received a ballot. This was 3 PM. She told her to call me and get the number before 5 PM but I never heard from her. AAA is allowing people to get ballots in person at 120 Broadway on April 28, 29. Sure, tell her to go down from Washington Hts. The more I look over the years, the more I see AAA working as employees of UFT/Unity. After all, if UFC wins who knows? They may hire a different firm for future elections. 

More from Eterno at the ICE blog: Mulgrew as Mitch McConnel

In the latest round of UFT voter suppression, Unity again acts like the Republican Party which tries to make it more difficult to vote in state and national elections. For Unity, it wants to make it harder to vote in this UFT election. To add to the cumbersome mail-in ballot process, Unity today rejected a request from one of its candidates to delay the date when members can get a ballot if they had not yet received one by April 25. This came up tonight at the Executive Board when Mike Schirtzer asked about an extension to request a ballot. Ballots are not due back in the mail at the American Arbitration Association until May 9, 2022. Today is April 25 so that leaves two weeks to get a piece of mail from the AAA to a member's home and back if they have not received a ballot yet or if they were given an incorrect ballot or threw it out by accident. Is that enough time? Let's go to the numbers provided by the United States Postal Service: The United States Postal Service reported new delivery performance metrics showing the average time to deliver a mailpiece across the postal network continues is 2.7 days.

How did the UFT do in the past on this issue? In 2016 a member could call for a ballot up to one week before the ballots were going to be counted. This is what we wrote in 2016 at election time on May 17 when ballots were due on May 25 to be counted May 26:

Tomorrow is the last day to call AAA at 1 800 529-5218 to get a duplicate ballot.

The UFT gave you up until one week before the election deadline in 2016 to request a ballot if you didn't get one but this year they need two weeks. That makes no sense as we have already shown the Postal service numbers.

There is only one possible explanation for the UFT making the deadline two weeks before ballots are counted to call for a ballot: Voter Suppression. 

In my view, the UFT feels a low turnout helps Unity Caucus, which is their major (really only) concern.

For those who want read the Unity party line, here is Mike Schirtzer's Question about the deadline from Executive Board tonight. This is from a report from Nick Bacon of New Action who sat in and took minutes:

On election: UFT election. Mulgrew refuses to answer, says any questions on election must be sent to Carl Cambria (Unity Election Committee Chair).

Carl comes up. Mike asks: why is it 2 weeks before deadline this year to get a ballot delivered if it wasn’t sent to your house this year? It was 1 week before the deadline last election. Not to mention there wasn’t the spring break issue last time. Members who just got back from vacation and were told they have to go in person to AAA to get ballots in person. Is there anything we can do to extend that deadline?

Carl Cambria: AAA can’t guarantee extending deadline will allow ballots to get back in time. What we have done is allow teachers to go to AAA in person this Thursday Friday between 9 and 5 and submit ballots in person. Post office isn’t working at the same pace as last year, which is why we landed where we landed.

Only the most committed of voters would go down to lower Manhattan (unless they work in that area) to get a ballot. Imagine if you live way out of town as a retiree. Forget about it. Blaming AAA or the Post Office for this is rather lame and statistically wrong as the USPS reports a close to 90% on-time record. Unity is engaging in flat-out voter suppression.

By the way -- this is why I want Mike Schirtzer on the Ex Bd even if he is running on the Unity line - if UFC doesn't win any seats we at least have Mike there to ask questions, the only one we can rely on. And if UFC wins a partial victory by winning the high schools, Mike will at the very least be a partial ally.

E4E/WECU Scam

Educators for Excellence, the corporate funded anti-union 5th column* in the UFT, creates a faux caucus called WECU (We Exemplify Corporate Unionism - my interpretation)

They can't get the 40 people to run as a slate, so they come up with 6 candidates and get 100 signatures each to get on the ballot for Exec Bd at large positions. 

UFC on the  other hand has 400 candidates with an army of people going out to get signatures which takes weeks and weeks of work. So go open up the current editions of the NY Teacher and low and behold find that E4E - er WECU - gets two full pages equal to UFC.

I'm on the election committee and we drew lots for the two official slates' positioning in the NY Teacher ads. UFC drew second place in the ad positioning - meaning we get the last word. But in the NY Teacher it is WECU that gets the last word and UFC is in the middle. No consultation with the election committee but a unilateral decision by someone in the UFT/Unity hierarchy with the obvious intent of drawing votes away from UFC. 

Take this to the logical next step. In the next election I am running the NORM Caucus with 6 guys named Norm and get two pages in the NY Teacher. I also recruit 6 Bobs and 6 Mikes and 6 Jeans and we get 8 pages in the NY Teacher.  All we need is to get 100 signatures for each of our slates.

*A fifth column is any group of people who undermine a larger group from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or nation. The activities of a fifth column can be overt or clandestine.

 

 As we catalogue a list of election missteps designed to favor Unity, this one will be near the top of the list.These are not stop the steal issues if we lose but an attempt to shine a light on the misdeeds - something I should have added to my list of "what's different this election." We are publicly calling them out.

 

Monday, April 25, 2022

CALL AAA 800-218-5524 BY TODAY 5 PM - Last Call for Election BallotUFT/Unity Sqeezes People Into Tight Deadline

Eterno at the ICE blog

LAST CHANCE TO REQUEST A BALLOT FOR UFT ELECTION

The UFT election is ongoing. It is a mail-in ballot due Monday, May 9, 2022. Since so many people were away last week, it would seem that a deadline date of April 22, 2022, to request a ballot for the UFT Election is too early. However, April 22 is the date on some UFT election forms as the last day to call for a ballot if you didn't get one. 

On the other hand, the UFT website says the deadline date to request a ballot is today, April 25. Since people were on vacation last week, we believe you can request a ballot today. This is the exact wording on the UFT Website.

Didn't get a ballot?

Any member who has not received a ballot by April 18, or has received an incorrect ballot, should notify the AAA via phone: (800) 218-5524 (Monday - Friday 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. only) or e-mail: UlerioS@adr.org. Request for ballots must be made promptly – no later than 5 p.m. on Monday, April 25, 2022.

Here is the screenshot:

 
Another example of things going wrong. 
 
Some people are just becoming aware of the UFT election and realize they did not get a ballot and yet the deadline is today at 5 PM to call the AAA. She called and was told the deadline was Friday April 22. The UFT is sending out mixed information. Or they didn't tell the AAA the deadline was extended.

In a ridiculous decision the original deadline was Friday - during vacation week. We protested and they extended it to today. Gee, thanks for nothing.

I just got a call from a retiree who did not get a ballot -- a friend called her to remind her to vote and she realized she did not get it. So she called the UFC number -- which is linked to my phone and I called the AAA number and they are accepting requests until 5 PM today. Otherwise people can pick up a ballot in person at AAA 120 Broadway April 28 and 29. Check this out before you go: 800-218-5524.

I am calling the UFT election committee chair to ask for another extension. Ballots are due in 2 weeks and there's no reason they can't give people more time. 



Sunday, April 24, 2022

How UFT Election2022 is different? Reasons #5 Unity Suppresses democracy, #6 more people activated, #7 UFT seen as incompetent, #8 Social Media, #9 GOTV

Unity Titanic ad is a perfect meme for Unity campaign.

 
Sunday, April 24, 2022
Here is Part 3 of my series of reasons the 2022 UFT election differs from past elections. Previous posts covered reasons #1-4.

 Before going on, let me recommend the great Jon Halabi series on "What if UFC wins?" - the current entry relates to some of the issues below and is actually a supplement to how things have deteriorated inside the UFT:  

which leads to my own #5 reason for how this election is different.

#5  The suppression of democracy has reached new heights under Mulgrew and his henchmen and women and has sparked anger, frustration and a fervent move to the opposition, even by former supporters or neutral people.

Talk to some key people in the opposition like Nick Bacon and Daniel Alicea this time over what moved them into activism against Unity and their answer hinges on how they tried to become active in moving certain issues and were blokced at every turn through parliamentary measures to outright suppression. You might say that the rank and file doesn't give a crap about internal democracy in the UFT. And that is true. But people like them have a wide net of influence in their own schools and beyond. A year ago there were people talking abotu working with the leadership to craft a way to end mayoral control, taking Mulgrew's vague expression of dissatisfaction with mayoral control seriously. I told them that he and the UFT would always support mayoral control no matter what Mulgrew says -- watch what they do, not what they say. 

A recent article on the current state of the debate on mayoral control where Mulgrew calls for tweaks that amount to moving the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Michael Mulgrew, who heads the city’s teachers union, has called for fixed terms for PEP members and previously said he is in favor of mayoral control, but with changes. "We have been consistent in saying we support mayoral control, but our current system needs greater checks and balances and more avenues for meaningful parental input," Mulgrew said in a statement.

When key people realize that the leadership is often full of bullshit they can be moved to an extraordinary level of activism and become major influenceers. Though that has happened at times in the past when new stars arise (see Julie Cavnagh c. 2009-2013), this time there seems to be a lot more of them, each with a sphere of influence.

Even a mild dose of reform and democracy could have deflected or delayed some of them but Mulgrew and his tight circle chose to crack down and shut out any voices of opposition or criticism.

That has led to the next item.

#6 The large number of people activated compared to the past

Unity has always had an army and still has its army. Has it grown this year? Probably not. In fact we hear stories of shrinkage (see #1). On the other hand, I've seen an oppo army grow that is five- ten times from what I've seen in the past. Unlike the top tier of Unity which is office based (see Halabi brilliant post comparing the Unity and UFC Ex bd at large candidates top employ laden for Unity vs classroom teachers for UFC.-- United Federation of ________???.

Enthusiasm for union organizing -- people not just in election campaign -- but truly as a long-term project -- organizing = relationships 

 The number of distributors has allowed UFC to reach many more mailboxes. Of course Unity does what it always does -- use its union employee force to stuff every box in the city. (See my UFT Election 2022: Unity Caucus Theft of Service - District Reps are a Major culprit). 

So while Unity has remained the same, UFC has gone way beyond the past. But a key question: Does stuffing the boxes mean much? I never gave it much credit in the past. Unity stuffs every box -- maybe over 100K but actually gets a relatively few working UFT members to vote for them. If the oppo also stuffed every box I don't believe that would affect the outcome. though surely get some increase in votes. If this election is close and UFC loses we would take a look at that factor by checking the schools we flyered.

Historically Unity opponents didn't have the outreach to get to many schools and retirees have taken on the task from the different caucuses. New Action had the biggest group and hit many schools, yet their numbers over the years have not been good - they finished last in the 2019 election and I'd bet they had more leaflets out than the other caucuses. 
 
This year we carved the city up into areas convenient to where people lived. MORE and Solidarity and New Action had so much outreach we didn't have to blanket the city and acted as fill-in people.

Using the Titanic as an ad for Unity is very appropriate
  • The funniest example of Unity cluelessness is worth repeating

 #7 Poor service and bad decision making, neutralizing key Unity supporters
There is a perception that even things that used to work well in the union has undergone some deterioration.  And this runs throughout the union.
My friend in California called the union for a simple question for her taxes. She was told she'd get a call back. Two weeks later with no response she called again. Message taken - no call back. She stopped calling.
Calls coming in about  ineptness on multiple levels. Someone gets a pension consultation. The Unity person emails her a flyer promoting Unity.  This is the tip of the iceberg.
The Unity leadership at the very least used to be able to deliver fundamental services. People are noticing the decline.
#8: Social Media campaign
This is the first election where social media may make a difference. Unity has a big campaign but so does UFC with a strong media team with a strategy to hit back hard and fast at Unity. Given we relied on in school outreach in the past, this has the potential to reach a lot more people. Will it get out the vote? Which leads to - 
#9 - A Get Out the Vote campaign by both sides  - but UFC has the greater potential
We have understood that increased turnout helps the opposition and Unity attempts are aimed at its own base it seems. UFC also aims at its base but also has more people doing personal calling and outreach. I'm intrigued by how the numbers will look. I pointed out in #3 that I expect retiree vote to go up by 20-25%. If I'm wrong that will tell me something about the impact of the various campaigns over MulgewCare because if more people vote the majority will be against Mulgrew, though some will be due to an aggressive Unity campaign with Unity retirees- of whom there are many.
What some of us have detected is a lack of enthusiasm from some Unity people in the campaign and they are not rousing their own colleagues like they might have in the past. When Unity CL of major large high schools openly criticize Mulgrew I can't imagine how hard they are campaigning.

I know of a few cases where Unity asked people to run for certain position and they declined, with one of them running for a prominent position with UFC. That is a danger sign for a one party system.

If you want an idea for a GOTV on your part --

If you have your coworkers' personal email addresses or cell phone numbers, another option that might work would be sending them a digital flier. You can see all of the fliers that we have on social media at:




There is one new how-to-vote flier available at: http://bit.ly/ufcvote