Questions on NEA/AFT Merger Prospects

While many in NYC speculated Randi's support of Hillary was aimed at procuring a cabinet position, I never bought into it. Randi's real ambition I believe is to lead the labor movement. A precursor of that would be a merger of the 1.4 million member AFT with the 3.4 million member NEA.

But is there any way Randi could end up leading a merged organization when the AFT is so much smaller?

We know there are significant differences - the NEA has term limits while the AFT has had only 4 presidents in 35 years.

The AFT is tightly controlled and has little democracy, with the UFT's Unity Caucus in NYC exerting control over the entire AFT through the Progressive Caucus, the national version of Unity. The NEA/AFT merger in NY State (NYSUT) has created a 600,000 bloc in the AFT and potentially the NEA.

Though I often disagree with Educational Intelligence Agency's Mike Antonucci, I respect his knowledge and opinions. (We spent a couple of days chatting in the press section at the AFT convention in Washington in 2004 - Mike though based in California, is originally a Bushwick guy from Brooklyn.)

With the ascension of Randi Weingarten as AFT president due to take place next week, I was wondering how strategies towards an NEA/AFT merger will emerge, so I sent him these questions:

Mike
I'm looking forward to your coverage of the NEA. Are you doing the AFT too? I cannot make it (I'm going to a Zombies concert in NYC and would rather see those zombies than the Unity drones in Chicago.)
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One of the issues of interest is how a merger will play out with Randi leading the AFT and I hope you might touch on some of these issues.

Can she emerge as the head of a merged union? Will she be at the NEA convention and play a prominent role?

We know that the AFT/UFT model has resistance in the NEA but can a Unity Caucus-like machine be implemented state by state?

What role does the 600,000 member NYSUT play? Is this a strategy to take the NEA from underneath? What about other merged states?

What role will the UTLA play - will their more militant/left political orientation emerge as a counter to Weingarten's collaborative model that has so set back the teacher union movement in NYC?

There are groups meeting in Chicago working on the peace and justice caucus and some people from ICE will be there.


Hi Norm:

I won't be in Chicago for a number of reasons, but I've noted your stories about George Schmidt and his struggles to get a credential. My getting one was never a slam dunk either, and would have been particularly difficult this time.

You ask a lot of good questions, but I can only definitively answer a few. First, yes, Randi could emerge as the head of a merged union, but only under term limits. Any merger would probably lead to a tacit agreement to alternate presidents - first Van Roekel, then Randi. But timing is everything. A merger attempt would have to get started almost immediately, because I guarantee Randi wouldn't stand a chance against Lily Eskelsen, who is much like Randi, only vastly more popular.

Also, I find it highly unlikely that a caucus system would ever catch on in NEA. Some states might try it and like it, but it would take ages for it to spread.

As for NYSUT and the merged states, the thing to watch for there is any attempt at NEA to change its representation rules for the merged affiliates. As you probably know, though NEA claims all the NYSUT members as NEA members, NYSUT only pays NEA dues and has voting representation rights for the former NEANY members. It's the same in Minnesota, Montana and Florida. But Minnesota, for example, has been merged for almost 10 years now. Eventually there could be a move for full representation. If that happens, the merged states would provide a huge voting bloc for national merger and could conceivably squeak it through.

We can all speculate, but that would be the trigger. Because I don't think NEA has any more votes for national merger today than it did in 1998.

Unless something amazing happens, there is only one thing to watch for at this NEA convention, and that's Van Roekel's acceptance speech on the last day. No one has any idea what he'll do as president, and he may not do anything. But if he has an agenda, we'll get the first hint of it then.

It's too bad you're not going to Chicago. I wanted you to say hi to Leo for me. : )

Regards,

Mike

Catch Mike's coverage of the NEA Convention starting today.