NY Primary Analysis: Robert Jackson WINS over Mulgrew advisor and Charter slug, Wins for DSA Brisport (over Adams backed) and DSA Gonzales - and more info than you can handle

The Latine community appreciates authentic, genuine people. @RJackson_NYC is someone of integrity, honor and faith. There are not tricks or gimmicks. Pure love for community. We know when someone is not being honest abt who they are. Lo dejo ahí. ... twitter feed

“Today we really proved that socialism wins, we are not going anywhere, and we will not stop until we see a socialist slate across this city,” said González, a former intern for U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, as several left-wing elected officials, including State Sen. Julia Salazar and City Councilmember Tiffany Cabán, cheered her on. The Elmhurst native trounced Crowley 59% to 32%, according to preliminary city Board of Elections results. González’s wide margin came as a surprise to some volunteers, who thought that the flood of pro-Crowley independent expenditure committee spending in the final weeks of the race — much of it from the real estate industry — would make the contest close.... The City

Last night was a great night for public schools. Four out of our five endorsed candidates won their primaries: Jamaal Bowman, Robert Jackson, Cordell Cleare, and Gustavo Rivera... KidspacNY

The mainstream liberal media line has been that the center/right wins and slams the left - ie - Sean Patrick Maloney's big win over Biaggi - who for many reasons never had a chance and only ran because Mondaire Jones, who might have beaten Maloney from the left, chose to go way outside his comfort zone and finish 3rd in D 10 and preventing another left win there too.) But to me the massive win over Crowley - a Maloney wing candidate) is a big story too.

So, Big wins for Bowman, Brisport and Kristin Gonzales despite loads of anti-left money targeting the left...Progressives divide the vote and allow Goldman to win in D10 with 26%, Corp Dem Maloney wins big over Biaggi after screwing the left.... KidsPac celebrated Progressive educations wins of endorsees, Laments Loss to Dan Goldman - they endorsed Jo Anne Simon with Niou second choice - what if Simon votes went to her?

Sunday, August 28, 2022 -  EdNotesOnline celebrates its sweet 16 -- see our first two posts:

An attentive class size of three

Ednotes Online - August 31, 2006

WARNING: This report is very disjointed and repetitive as I've spent the past few days listening and reading every angle on the elections. I spent many hours listening to podcasts and reading many articles which I share here.

And new stuff coming in constantly - this deep dive dropped from Ross Barkan: Dan Goldman, Democratic Congressman: Money gets you far enough. -  

The rage directed against Dan Goldman, Democratic nominee for New York’s 10th Congressional District, is righteous and understandable and somewhat out of proportion, given what he actually believes. Goldman’s politics do not differ in any meaningful way from most of the New York City’s House delegation’s politics. He does not exist to the right of Hakeem Jeffries, Carolyn Maloney, Grace Meng, Adriano Espaillat, or Gregory Meeks. He will vote with Nancy Pelosi 98 or 99% of the time. He hates Donald Trump, he supports a public option for the Affordable Care Act, he wants to liberalize immigration policy, and he wants to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. The former Trump impeachment lawyer is an Israel hawk in the mold of Chuck Schumer. Like almost all the Democrats, he would authorize indefinite military aid to Ukraine.

If you are a progressive or socialist, Goldman is intolerable. If you’re tired of the somewhat empty brand of resistance-style politics that dominated the latter half of the 2010s—Goldman dedicated much of his victory speech to railing against Trump, as if every deficiency in the United States is the fault of a one-term president—he’s not the congressman for you either. There is talk of Niou running on the Working Families Party line in the general election, which would mean Jones vacating it first and the WFP deciding to throw the weight of their fundraising apparatus behind a candidacy that is probably doomed. 

With Niou coming within less than 2,000 votes of beating Goldman, there’s plenty of anger on the left, at least among those who follow politics casually. It is important to remember the hardcore members of the 

Democratic Socialists of America, and even their elected contingent in Albany, side-eyed Niou somewhat, regarding her as more performer than genuine advocate. She pays her own staff poorly and fought against affordable housing development in her district, taking up the NIMBY cause. Some, who prefer a class-based politics, disdain her overriding obsession with identity. She was not a Bernie Sanders backer in 2020, preferring Elizabeth Warren; she is much more left-liberal than socialist.

Also from Barkan: For New York, I wrote about the big progressive victories on Tuesday and the future of Jerry Nadler’s district.

Ross did an hour long great deep dive with Briahna Joy Gray: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxhSbKYtsOA. I learned more about the deep politics of the candidates - like the branded hard leftist Niou is not that hard left -- more Warren than Bernie -- and also some tricky political behavior. And also on Mondaire and why he had a better chance against Maloney - even if he lost he would be honored - like Biaggi is.

I recommend subscribing to Ross for a few bucks a month to support this kind of journalism: Political Currents by Ross Barkan.

And the NYT, Aug. 24: In N.Y. Primaries, a Fight for the Democratic Party’s Future:  

The party’s more moderate establishment declared victory, but a closer look reveals the battle for the soul of the party will grind on... https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/nyregion/maloney-biaggi-democrats-progressives-left.html

Breaking Points' solid election analysis on NY: Krystal interviews Huffpost reporter Dan Marans to break down the Florida and NY elections!  https://feeds.simplecast.com/_iafZVRs

At the very end, they discuss the increasing impact of DSA on NY city and now state politics - Gonzalez election adds to the growth -- he makes the point of a socialist fertile crescent being formed in northern Brooklyn and Northwest Queens. Around 10 members of NY state legislature are socialists.  There were none in 2018. I'm a DSA member - because of what they point out -- DSA is building the kind of infrastructure to challenge the Dem party at the neighborhood level and build from there - also an increasing bench of viable candidates - start at City Council, them state, then national. 

Working Family Party does not seem to build infrastructure and has to work to keep its line on the ballot. DSA has not reached a point where it would run on its own outside the Dems. Maybe never. But some segments on the left mock DSA for working in basic infrastructure to undermine Dem centrist machines and demand they abandon the strategy and form a third labor party. Good luck with that and all the left infighting. 

The big story nationally was the Pat Ryan Hudson Valley win (only for next 4 months) - they focused on his emphasis on the abortion issue which I thought would not be enough - I thought he also should have dealt with the Republican rejection on Insulin relief and other economic issues. 

Ryan Grim

@ryangrim

Everybody is (understandably) focused on how Pat Ryan, not a lefty, leaned into abortion rights to win his NY special election, but is missing another consequential dynamic.  Half (!) his ad buy went behind this anti-corporate monopoly price gouging spot:

"As Ulster County Executive I used my power to hold greedy corporations accountable….Big corporations have too much power, it’s time our families had more.” This is not Rahm Emanuel’s swing-district strategy.

So a left-leaning Bernie type attack on corporate greed resonates.

Another story was the Nadler big win over Maloney - probably due to NY Times endorsement, and most important for our interest, the NYT endorsed Daniel Goldman (Levi Strauss heir - worth $250M) - UFT stayed out of these two. I didn't care for either one.

UFT endorsements

They did endorse Maloney - boo, Bowman- Yea, Crowley- double boo, and Birsport - double yea, Gustavo Rivera - yea, Espaillat - who ran someone against Rivera who beat the Bronx machine - go figure, Cordell Cleare - yea (she worked for Bill Perkins in 2009 and helped us out in protests against Eva) - click the link above for full list. 

The bottom line on UFT endorsements - they don't endorse the left unless they are incumbents (Bowman, Brisport). The Jackson endorsement deserves a deeper dive - down below.

DSA big wins:

The big one was the massive defeat of Queens machine corp dem supported Elizabeth Crowley who loses every election she runs into a more progressive candidate. She was backed by big corporate money.  And the UFT.

Kristen Gonzalez: 57.03%  Elizabeth Crowley: 31.89% Mike Corbett: 6.35% 

UFT failed badly with a Crowley endorsement - they'd never go for a DSA unless forced by incumbency and an obvious winner. Now they are forced to endorse a DSA (gag for them) next time.

So UFT did endorse former NYC teacher and MORE member re-elected with a slam:   Jabari Brisport: 69.09% Conrad Tillard: 15.33% Renee Holmes: 13.60% 

 

Ironic --- they endorsed a former MORE. But then again Unity has a bunch of former MORE members.

Back to D10 - The left won the vote but lost the election.

I've had some level of personal contact with Bowman, Jackson and Cleare. I saw Rivera in person at the Sam Seder Majority Report back in March. KidsPac lament the Dan Goldman win in D 10: 

Our only disappointment was Dan Goldman's win in the new Congressional District 10. Goldman, who spent millions of his own personal wealth on his campaign and also received funding from the pro-charter Walton family, only came out on top because there were so many progressive candidates who split the vote. Yuh-Line Niou, whom we would have endorsed if it weren't for Jo Anne Simon's stellar record in education, came in only a two points behind Goldman, and hopefully will be able to run against him on the Working Families Party line in the fall.  

I met Jo Anne Simon at Leonie's house for the Skinny Awards (Robert Jackson and John Lui were also there getting awards) and she felt she could run because there was no risk to her as she's still in her current office. I liked her and she attended our Medicare rally. 

Are progressives too dumb to win?

But Goldman won with 26% of the vote - meaning 74% are saddled with someone they didn't vote for. Liberals want to talk about suppression of votes in Georgia? Start here in NY which is one of the worst states on elections. The chaos this time deserves a follow-up post.

The corporate anti-left liberal media (no, not a contradiction) brand a Goldman win along with Adams for Mayor as an anti-left win for the center. Fact is that a bunch of Adams supported people didn't win. 

If you look at the candidates, the progressive vote depending on who you count - were almost 70% of the vote - but let's subtract all but Niou and Jones were true progressives. They were 42%. I do blame for Mondaire for jumping into this race. If he hadn't, Niou would have dented Goldman, even if she split that vote with Carlina - who got so much money from who know where I didn't put her in the progressive wing - though she reps the next door district from my apartment and has spoken well at Murray Hill neighborhood meetings. Without Jones, the story today would be different - though you can't automatically count Jones votes for Niou.

I question the "what the hell" view of Simon's running - she got 3k votes -

Let's talk Robert Jackson and the UFT  and his charter supported opponent who worked as an advisor to Mulgrew while announcing and running AGAINST Jackson - I wrote a piece in March making the claim the UFT wouldn't endorse Jackson and got a call from the UFT asking for a correction - which I did --

I was wrong - UFT/Unity HAS NOT YET Endorsed Jackson/Vasquez Contest, UFT Staff Director Memo on Senate Race -  - March 19, 2022

Let me remind you of the UFT staff memo re their colleague running against Jackson-

....while no one is expected to make any financial contribution to Angel's campaign, we recognize that there are those of you who will choose to show him your support.  If you voluntarily elect to contribute to Angel’s campaign you must make the contribution by check, mailed from your home (or other non-UFT mailbox) directly to Angel’s campaign headquarters. You may not hand Angel a check on UFT premises or during UFT work hours. --- Leroy Barr, Anthony Harmon, Staff memo, March 10, 2022

Isn't the very presence of Angel Vasquez deep in the halls of UFT power an ad for his campaign? When trolling for funding, the very fact he is so close to Mulgrew increases his fundraising and dampens Jackson's.

Wait, wait -- It was OK for people being paid by my dues to work against Jackson and for a charter school slug? Imagine if one of those people said they agreed with an opposition reso at a DA -- bye bye. Vasquez earned almost 120K working for UFT, part of the time while running against Jackson. So don't give me bullshit and excuses about the late UFT endorsement for Jackson. 

Some Unity supporting slug was trolling me today on twitter bragging about UFT endorsement of Jackson - which came way too late - he claims they followed the usual endorsement policy which came way too late --- they set the schedule and could have at least made an early effort on Jackson who deserved better than to be treated like any other candidate.

- I wrote that his opponent was sitting down the hall from Mulgrew and on UFT payroll - while running. In essence, our dues money was subsidizing Vasquez. He's reported on leave from the UFT. I would call on the ex bd to rule he doesn't return. Go work for Eva.

Here's the Kidspac letter:

Dear Norm --

Last night was a great night for public schools. Four out of our five endorsed candidates won their primaries: Jamaal Bowman, Robert Jackson, Cordell Cleare, and Gustavo Rivera.

Jackson's and Rivera's wins were especially thrilling as they had hundreds of thousands of dollars in dark money spent against them by the charter school lobby -- mostly from three billionaires: Jim Walton, Daniel Loeb, and Paul Tudor Jones. Rivera also beat big spending by the Bronx Democratic machine and Jackson by Adriano Espaillat and his crew in Upper Manhattan, trying to build their own machine.

Our only disappointment was Dan Goldman's win in the new Congressional District 10. Goldman, who spent millions of his own personal wealth on his campaign and also received funding from the pro-charter Walton family, only came out on top because there were so many progressive candidates who split the vote. Yuh-Line Niou, whom we would have endorsed if it weren't for Jo Anne Simon's stellar record in education, came in only a two points behind Goldman, and hopefully will be able to run against him on the Working Families Party line in the fall.  

But last night was a night to savor and celebrate the wins of four terrific education champions who we know will continue to fight to strengthen our public schools in Albany and DC!

Here's the decent NYT article on the internals in the Dem Party - 

In N.Y. Primaries, a Fight for the Democratic Party’s Future

The party’s more moderate establishment declared victory, but a closer look reveals the battle for the soul of the party will grind on.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/nyregion/maloney-biaggi-democrats-progressives-left.html 

By Nicholas Fandos

Aug. 24, 2022

Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, a moderate Democrat from New York City’s northern suburbs, saw a clear-cut lesson in his lopsided primary victory Tuesday night over one of his home state’s brightest left-wing stars.

“Tonight, mainstream won,” Mr. Maloney, who also leads House Democrat campaign committee, declared afterward. “Common sense won.”

The 30-point margin appeared to be a sharp rebuke to the party’s left flank, which had tried to make the race a referendum on Mr. Maloney’s brand of leadership in Washington. A second, narrower win by another moderate Democrat, Daniel Goldman, in one of the city’s most liberal House districts prompted more hand-wringing among some progressives.

But as New York’s tumultuous primary season came to a close on Tuesday, a survey of contests across the state shows a more nuanced picture. Four summers after Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s surprise victory ignited Democrats’ left flank and positioned New York at the center of a fight for the soul of the Democratic Party, the battle has entered a new phase. But it is far from abating.

Mostly gone this year were shocking upsets by little-known left-leaning insurgents like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and a gaggle of challengers in Albany. They dislodged an entrenched block of conservative Democrats controlling the State Senate in 2018. Representative Jamaal Bowman defeated a powerful committee chairman in 2020. Those contests made the political left appear ascendant.

Two years later, though, the tension within the party appears likely to grind on, as progressives struggle to marshal voters into movements as they did during the Trump presidency. At the same time, the party’s establishment wing has regained its footing after President Biden and Mayor Eric Adams, avowed moderates, won the White House and City Hall.

“We are past that political and electoral moment,” said Sochie Nnaemeka, the director of New York’s liberal Working Families Party, said of the rapid gains of past election cycles. “The headwinds are a real amount of voter fatigue, economic malaise and just the pressures of everyday life.”

Ms. Nnaemeka and her allies still found reason to celebrate on Tuesday though, particularly over state-level contests. Kristen Gonzalez, a tech worker supported by the Democratic Socialists of America, won a marquee Brooklyn-Queens State Senate race over Elizabeth Crowley, despite Mayor Adams and outside special interests openly campaigning against her.

“Today, we really proved that socialism wins,” Ms. Gonzalez told jubilant supporters after her win.

As moderates backed by well-financed outside groups and well-known leaders like Mr. Adams sought to oust them, progressives also successfully defended key seats won in recent election cycles.

Among them were Jabari Brisport, a member of the Democratic Socialists, and Gustavo Rivera, another progressive state senator targeted by Mr. Adams. Mr. Bowman, whose district had been substantially redrawn in this year’s redistricting process, also survived.

“We had some really good wins,” Ms. Nnaemeka added. “Despite the headwinds, despite the dark money, despite the redistricting chaos, we sent some of the hardest working champions of the left back to the State Senate to complete the work the federal government isn’t doing right now.”

But in many of the most recognizable races, there were clear signs that those wins had limits.

Mr. Maloney provided moderates with their most resonant victory, defeating Alessandra Biaggi, a progressive state senator who was part of the 2018 insurgency, by a two-to-one margin. This time, she had the vocal backing of Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. She fiercely critiqued Mr. Maloney as “a selfish corporate Democrat with no integrity.” 

But she was drowned out by a flood of outside spending that came to Mr. Maloney’s aid, with attacks centered on her harsh past criticisms of the police. She struggled to quickly introduce herself to voters in a district she had never run in before. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former President Bill Clinton also openly lent their support to the congressman.

In the race for an open Democratic seat in New York City, Mr. Goldman, a former federal prosecutor, beat out three progressive stars in some of the city’s most liberal enclaves. All had once enjoyed the backing of the Working Families Party. And former Representative Max Rose, an avowed centrist attempting to make a comeback on Staten Island, handily turned back a primary challenger championed by activists.

The outcomes — along with Gov. Kathy Hochul’s yawning primary victory in June over a left-aligned challenger, Jumaane Williams — left leaders of the party’s more moderate wing crowing over what they see as a more pragmatic mood among the electorate in the aftermath of the Trump presidency.

“Common-sense, get-things-done, mainstream Biden Democrats have been winning all across the country,” said Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Brooklyn Democrat and House leader whose political action committee backed Mr. Maloney.

He added: “The voters are clearly supporting individuals who are getting big things done in Washington, D.C., and are committed to working with President Biden and his administration, not undermining it.”

Political analysts and Democratic operatives who run campaigns in New York offered competing explanations for the shifting electoral landscape.

After the upsets of 2018 and even 2020, incumbents and the outside groups that often fund them have learned how not to get caught flat-footed against underdog challengers. In many cases, they have shifted to the left on key issues, undercutting the ideological case against them.

Progressives, especially those on the far left, may also have simply already won many of the lowest-hanging electoral fruit in areas of Brooklyn and Queens packed with a diverse array of younger voters.

“What you’re seeing is that Democrats who do not define themselves as pure progressives are able to cherry-pick the most popular progressive ideas, adopt them as their own and use the rhetorical excesses of progressives to build up defenses,” said Bruce N. Gyory, a veteran political strategist trusted by some of the state’s top Democrats.

The question for progressives today, he added, was whether they could continue to build bridges reaching beyond their most fervent supporters, or fade as a major electoral force like the antiwar Democratic reformers of the 1960s and ’70s .

The left has tried to recalibrate, with mixed success. Their victories at the state and congressional level have often come when progressive groups consolidated voters behind single, viable challengers in fewer races.

But the strategy has not always worked. Mr. Adams, a former Republican who has disavowed his party’s left flank, won the mayor’s office last year in part because more liberal candidates cannibalized each other’s support, while he won over working class Black voters.

A similar dynamic played out on Tuesday in the 10th Congressional District, where three Working Families Party aligned candidates — Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, Representative Mondaire Jones and Council Member Carlina Rivera — ultimately split about 60 percent of the vote between them. Mr. Goldman, a Levi Strauss heir who made his name working on the first Trump impeachment, and took more moderate positions in the race, won with just a quarter of the vote.

“On the congressional side, we’re not there yet,” said Camille Rivera, a strategist who helped Mr. Rivera, a progressive state senator from the Bronx, successfully fend off a challenge from a moderate backed by the Bronx Democratic Party. Congressional races require speaking to a bigger electorate and are often shaped by outside money many progressives eschew.

“Organizing and educating voters and turning the tide on messaging takes years,” Ms. Rivera added. “There will be peaks, but that doesn’t mean every race will be like A.O.C. or Bowman.”

Nicholas Fandos is a reporter on the Metro desk covering New York State politics, with a focus on money, lobbying and political influence. He was previously a congressional correspondent in Washington. @npfandos