“Terrorist,” they screamed at Obama at a McCain rally. “Kill him,” some in the crowd were quoted as saying. These are people who are preparing for life after an Obama victory and are beginning to organize now. Economic pain for working people is not going to end on November 4th or even in January. Organizing fear and anger and attempting to direct it at a black president and a potentially progressive dominated congress is their plan. History has seen stuff like it before.If we are comparing the world to the Great Depression and we are roughly in the 1928 area with the major economic crunches to come, it is much more likely that whoever "wins" the election will be fairly helpless to do much other than to watch the economy spiral down to massive unemployment.
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In my opinion, only a New Deal WPA-like government supported massive job program could reverse course. Our infrastructure could sure use a little injection of capital instead of sending enormous sums to bail out Wall Street.
Remember, in the 20's and 30's, the Soviet Union was still viewed as heroic by many and the left was fairly strong. With the right wing anti-left, anti union ideology so prevalent today, there is little chance Obama, even if he wanted to, would get to set much of an FDR New Deal agenda. McCain doing so, of course, is out of the question.
If Obama wins, if he can't pull off FDR-type magic, it is likely he would be a one-term president as he gets the blame for not being able to stop the bleeding. Then Hillary Clinton gets to pick up the pieces for 2012.
Goin' Shoppin'
Some lessons of the 1920's and 30's: Remember how Germany printed money and they had hyperinflation, one of the keys to the rise of Hitler. See Reality-Based Educator over at NYC Educator today:
The Fed is going to start lending directly to businesses.
And where are they going to get the money from?
They're going to print it.
The Fed is going to start lending directly to businesses.
And where are they going to get the money from?
They're going to print it.
Of course in the Great Depression there was massive deflation. But given the choice today, government will choose inflation by printing money which might help disguise the problem.
But eventually, the population will get restless and move left. That is where repression comes in. [See Naomi Klein's "Shock Capitalism" for the chilling details.]
In the meantime, Palin polishes her act. Expect her to be around as a leading Republican presidential prospect for the next 20 years. It is almost inevitable that at some point she will be president.
In times of massive economic dislocation you end up with dictatorships and totalitarianism. And horrendous wars. (Iraq may prove to be a cupcake.)
People as late as the mid 30's laughed at Hitler. To those who laugh at Palin, beware. Imagine if Bill Clinton had ignored subpoenas, which Palin has done in Alaska over the firing of her ex-brother-in-law’s boss? All the seeds are in place in this country with extraordinary powers given to turn this into a police state.
A third term for Bloomberg? When will we see a president in crisis times calling for a repeal of the XXII Amendment limiting presidents to two terms?
As for me, my wheelbarrow is ready to be loaded with the money for that hyper inflated day when I’ll need to buy a loaf of bread.
There were about 1,000,000 marks to the dollar before Hitler was elected President of
ReplyDeleteGermany, and he and his cronies set fire to the Bundestag. This set in motion the groundwork leading to his takeover and horrific regime. We should be wary of "populist" candidates like Palin; she may be far more appealing than what's healthy for preservaton of democracy in this country. Your wheelbarrow reference reminded me of this; you needed wheelbarrows full of deutschmarks just to buy a loaf of bread back in 1930.
Will history repeat itself? One of my favorite stories about the Great Depression is the time New Yorkers prayed for snow in early December, I think, 1932. Prayers for cold weather during the Depression? Their prayers were answered when a large snowfall materialized. The city handed out 10,000 shovels to unemployed workers who were able to earn some money clearing the snow.
ReplyDeleteThese days I don't think snow shovels will do it. There would be too many heart attacks. FDR's program was the 3 R's: Relief, Reform, and Recovery. You hear about the first two from the
the presidential candidates and others, but what about Recovery?
Will recovery involve a restoration of the free market system as we have known it or some form of socialism? We remember that FDR was attacked from both the Right and the Left. He was criticized by the Left for saving capitalism, by the Right with undermining the free enterprise system.
However he did it, he moved the America closer to realizing her founding goals.
Robert
As you can tell Robert, I am pretty left leaning and have no compunctions about nationalizing certain institutions.
ReplyDeleteSure Roosevelt save capitalism and today I heard Steve Forbes complaining bitterly about what Roosevelt did. It did take a war to loosen the economy.
I question just how much of a free market system we have. Uncle Miltie Friedman's concepts are pure free markets and as Naomi Klein points out - a disaster where tried.
Look at England today which basiclly did their version of a bailout but by buying preferred stock in the banks, in essensce nationalizing them.
Congress had the same option - called a stock infusion but so far chose to hand over 800 billion for bad debt. That is due to ideological reasons not sound economic reasons. I heard on NPR Sunday that the stock infusion option was stuck in as an option for the Treasury Sect but we know Paulson would not use it.
Dear Edotesonline:
ReplyDeleteI think the standard verdict that Roosevelt's policies didn't end the Depression - and only WW II did - must be re-examined. Recently I was reading no less a luminary than Arthur Schlesinger (pere) and he believed Roosevelt had essentially ended the Depression. True, the economy was not fully recovered, but how could it have been? Powerful interests opposed his policies, and the world was moving toward war at that time. The 1937 2nd Depression, some say, was a credit strike of financial capitalists against the Roosevelt programs.
The vast majority of capitalists only want to produce and pay their workers and themselves. The danger comes from the politicians and the titans of finance and industry who own them and who are willing to sacrifice the national interest to the Moloch of money worship.
Naomi Klein has it wrong. It's pigheaded monetary policies and speculative debt that chokes off the free economy and leads to shock tactics by those who would perpetuate their game.
Robert
Robert
ReplyDeleteI was a history major and did study that era but some of it is hazy. Of course FDR turned the course in many ways but there is a limit as to what govt can do. when wars start they spark a boom. When they are over the real economic problems begin. Aftermath of WWI, WWII (I think), certainly Vietnam and now Iraq.
I think we do need to look at some European models of mixed socialism and capitalism.
The key to anything is to maintain ss much democracy and oversight as possible. Unfortunately economic dislocation leads to dictatorships and I feel this country will slip into that mode very easily if things get real bad. Can you see scapegoating of Jews for driving the economy down?
The Palin drones will lead the way.
Norm
I agree. Economic recovery is the chief question. After WW I the United States almost turned the European economy around with the Dawes Plan. We had a boom after WW II, but it was confined to Europe. The Cold War started under Truman, who caved in to Churchill's program to isolate the Soviet Union (the history is complex, but this is a main feature), and so the U.S. defaulted on the Roosevelt intention to end colonialism immediately and bring the post-colonial world into the world economic system as partners. In other words, the policy precedents for successful world development are there. We don't need to look for "socialism." We need a proper degree of government direction and intervention. FDR, in my opinion, provides the best model for the U.S. Other countries have their own models, some of which are more statist. But they, as societies, not us, have yielded to fascism, and scapegoating the Jews for their economic problems.
ReplyDeleteWe should remember that it was the conservatives in Germany, the Junkers of Prussia, who most despised and hated Hitler. U.S. conservatives are not anti-Semitic. The evangelicals are the strongest defenders of Israel. Those who would prop up their paper and privilege by any means on the backs of the populace by frightening everybody with cries of "disaster" if we don't save them are the culprits. Their unworkable policies will only exacerbate the crisis and pave the way for Depression, and then repression. That's Paulson and Greenspan (who still defends the derivatives which are destroying the financial system) and their favorite politicians, among whom we must number our own Mayor.
"U.S. conservatives are not anti-Semitic. The evangelicals are the strongest defenders of Israel."
ReplyDeleteThough a Jew, I am not one of those who look at everything from the "Jew is persecuted' point of view. But I do think evnagelicals must be anti-semitic by the very nature of the concept that if you are not Christian you are going straight to hell. They are pro-Israel as a bulwark against Muslims who are just as bad as Jews. They like that Israel is keeping the Holy Land safe for them to occupy when The Rapture comes. They state that Jews who convert will be saved.
Coming soon when people are out of work: blame the Jews for the mess - pick out the Jewish execs - remember they also think the Jews run the media, not realizing that the overwhelming number of Jews I know are viciously anti-Obama and voting for McCain. Typical - cut their own throats. They just need to see a nation run by Palin and her cronies before they see the light.