Healthcare - Medicare Dis-Advantage: Shortchanging the Patients While Enriching the Insurer - LEONARD RODBERG

This is the convoluted privatized system we have created in the name of encouraging "choice" in health plans for our oldest citizens....

Recognize the word "choice"? The exact argument used by the charter school industry to attack pub ed and in general use by all levels of privatizers going back to airline industry and big telecom re-regulation which always end up with higher consumer prices. 

We must ask why Mulgrew would want to institute a MedAdv plan when private insurance must make a profit, pay high salaries, engage in those Joe Namath ads, and have high overhead admin costs.

Nice summary of how MedAdv make money on the backs of traditional Medicare and the patients.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/08/30/medicare-dis-advantage-shortchanging-patients-while-enriching-insurer

Medicare Dis-Advantage: Shortchanging the Patients While Enriching the Insurer

There should be no out-of-pocket barriers to care when it is needed. The existence of these costs is why so many Medicare recipients opt for a private Medicare Advantage plan. However, this, and all such efforts to privatize the public Medicare program, harm patients and steal from the public purse. Medicare Advantage must be ended, and any new privatization efforts, like ACO REACH, must be opposed.

LEONARD RODBERG

Ding Dong: Dwarka Promotion may be relief to some at Bryant HS, But Augurs Poorly for the rest

OK folks -- time to start marking up those test scores. Relentless quest indeed. The return of the Bloomberg era with the Adams/Banks admin.

Monday, Aug. 29, 2022

Just two months ago, Georgia Lignou, a Bryant teacher and current UFT chapter leader, wrote a letter to Dwarka decrying pressure from administrators to promote students who skipped classes or did little or no work – and even some kids teachers had never even seen...“She was the one willing to do the dirty work,” said Sam Lazarus, a former teacher and UFT chapter leader. “It was not a happy place.”....NYP

Dwarka, with a $198,000 salary, will serve as deputy to Josephine Van-Ess, superintendent of the Queens South HS district, overseeing 29 schools. Bryant HS is in the Queens North district...NYP

Both Sam and Georgia ran with UFC in the recent UFT election. At least Bryant HS is out from under Dworka directly. But what kind of message does it send that someone who mistreats employees gets a big promotion? Many of us feel that the message is Bloomberg era threats by Adams and crew that anything goes, especially knowing that the UFT, as proven over the ten years of the Dwarka era, is fundamentally toothless.

The key issues have been pushing teachers to pass kids to keep stats up for school HS grads -- either they fall with a new admin that won't do the same or pressure will increase.

James Eterno has been on the Dwarka case for years.

DWARKA PROMOTION SENDS MESSAGE TO TEACHERS THAT THIS IS NOT A FRIENDLY DOE ADMINISTRATION

Sue Edelman got various kinds of reactions in her article on Bryant High School's not so teacher friendly Principal Namita Dwarka's promotion to Queens High School South Deputy Superindendent.... https://iceuftblog.blogspot.com/2022/08/dwarka-promotion-sends-message-to.html

And Arthur Goldstein also

DOE Promotes Nelson (While We Watch) - https://nyceducator.com/2022/08/doe-promotes-nelson-while-we-watch.html

Just when you think things can't get any worse, Chancellor Banks, perhaps suffering from geranium in cranium syndrome, finds one of the very worst principals in NYC (that's saying something), and promotes her. That would be Namita Dwarka of Bryant High School. Dwarka has been repeatedly accused of grade-fraud, social promotion, and other Big Fun things that, if you were accused, you'd find yourself facing dismissal charges. 

For years Dwarka has lingered about, like a stench you just can't wash or spray away. I've gotten messages and emails, heard stories, but nothing seemed to happen. Now something has, and if you didn't think Mayor Eric Swagger was Bloomberg 2.0, let this be your wakeup call. He took six million dollars from the charter lobby, and you can consider Dwarka's promotion a small down payment on what he owes back. .... 

So I don't have much to add other than an acquaintance was a supervisor at Bryant under Dwarka and was horrified at the Sue Edelman story in the Post on the promotion. Instead of one school suffering we have the prospect of 19 Queens HS dealing with Dwarka. 

NY Primary Analysis: Robert Jackson WINS over Mulgrew advisor and Charter slug, Wins for DSA Brisport (over Adams backed) and DSA Gonzales - and more info than you can handle

The Latine community appreciates authentic, genuine people. @RJackson_NYC is someone of integrity, honor and faith. There are not tricks or gimmicks. Pure love for community. We know when someone is not being honest abt who they are. Lo dejo ahí. ... twitter feed

“Today we really proved that socialism wins, we are not going anywhere, and we will not stop until we see a socialist slate across this city,” said González, a former intern for U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, as several left-wing elected officials, including State Sen. Julia Salazar and City Councilmember Tiffany Cabán, cheered her on. The Elmhurst native trounced Crowley 59% to 32%, according to preliminary city Board of Elections results. González’s wide margin came as a surprise to some volunteers, who thought that the flood of pro-Crowley independent expenditure committee spending in the final weeks of the race — much of it from the real estate industry — would make the contest close.... The City

Last night was a great night for public schools. Four out of our five endorsed candidates won their primaries: Jamaal Bowman, Robert Jackson, Cordell Cleare, and Gustavo Rivera... KidspacNY

The mainstream liberal media line has been that the center/right wins and slams the left - ie - Sean Patrick Maloney's big win over Biaggi - who for many reasons never had a chance and only ran because Mondaire Jones, who might have beaten Maloney from the left, chose to go way outside his comfort zone and finish 3rd in D 10 and preventing another left win there too.) But to me the massive win over Crowley - a Maloney wing candidate) is a big story too.

So, Big wins for Bowman, Brisport and Kristin Gonzales despite loads of anti-left money targeting the left...Progressives divide the vote and allow Goldman to win in D10 with 26%, Corp Dem Maloney wins big over Biaggi after screwing the left.... KidsPac celebrated Progressive educations wins of endorsees, Laments Loss to Dan Goldman - they endorsed Jo Anne Simon with Niou second choice - what if Simon votes went to her?

Sunday, August 28, 2022 -  EdNotesOnline celebrates its sweet 16 -- see our first two posts:

An attentive class size of three

Ednotes Online - August 31, 2006

WARNING: This report is very disjointed and repetitive as I've spent the past few days listening and reading every angle on the elections. I spent many hours listening to podcasts and reading many articles which I share here.

And new stuff coming in constantly - this deep dive dropped from Ross Barkan: Dan Goldman, Democratic Congressman: Money gets you far enough. -  

The rage directed against Dan Goldman, Democratic nominee for New York’s 10th Congressional District, is righteous and understandable and somewhat out of proportion, given what he actually believes. Goldman’s politics do not differ in any meaningful way from most of the New York City’s House delegation’s politics. He does not exist to the right of Hakeem Jeffries, Carolyn Maloney, Grace Meng, Adriano Espaillat, or Gregory Meeks. He will vote with Nancy Pelosi 98 or 99% of the time. He hates Donald Trump, he supports a public option for the Affordable Care Act, he wants to liberalize immigration policy, and he wants to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. The former Trump impeachment lawyer is an Israel hawk in the mold of Chuck Schumer. Like almost all the Democrats, he would authorize indefinite military aid to Ukraine.

If you are a progressive or socialist, Goldman is intolerable. If you’re tired of the somewhat empty brand of resistance-style politics that dominated the latter half of the 2010s—Goldman dedicated much of his victory speech to railing against Trump, as if every deficiency in the United States is the fault of a one-term president—he’s not the congressman for you either. There is talk of Niou running on the Working Families Party line in the general election, which would mean Jones vacating it first and the WFP deciding to throw the weight of their fundraising apparatus behind a candidacy that is probably doomed. 

With Niou coming within less than 2,000 votes of beating Goldman, there’s plenty of anger on the left, at least among those who follow politics casually. It is important to remember the hardcore members of the 

Democratic Socialists of America, and even their elected contingent in Albany, side-eyed Niou somewhat, regarding her as more performer than genuine advocate. She pays her own staff poorly and fought against affordable housing development in her district, taking up the NIMBY cause. Some, who prefer a class-based politics, disdain her overriding obsession with identity. She was not a Bernie Sanders backer in 2020, preferring Elizabeth Warren; she is much more left-liberal than socialist.

Also from Barkan: For New York, I wrote about the big progressive victories on Tuesday and the future of Jerry Nadler’s district.

Ross did an hour long great deep dive with Briahna Joy Gray: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxhSbKYtsOA. I learned more about the deep politics of the candidates - like the branded hard leftist Niou is not that hard left -- more Warren than Bernie -- and also some tricky political behavior. And also on Mondaire and why he had a better chance against Maloney - even if he lost he would be honored - like Biaggi is.

I recommend subscribing to Ross for a few bucks a month to support this kind of journalism: Political Currents by Ross Barkan.

And the NYT, Aug. 24: In N.Y. Primaries, a Fight for the Democratic Party’s Future:  

The party’s more moderate establishment declared victory, but a closer look reveals the battle for the soul of the party will grind on... https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/nyregion/maloney-biaggi-democrats-progressives-left.html

Breaking Points' solid election analysis on NY: Krystal interviews Huffpost reporter Dan Marans to break down the Florida and NY elections!  https://feeds.simplecast.com/_iafZVRs

At the very end, they discuss the increasing impact of DSA on NY city and now state politics - Gonzalez election adds to the growth -- he makes the point of a socialist fertile crescent being formed in northern Brooklyn and Northwest Queens. Around 10 members of NY state legislature are socialists.  There were none in 2018. I'm a DSA member - because of what they point out -- DSA is building the kind of infrastructure to challenge the Dem party at the neighborhood level and build from there - also an increasing bench of viable candidates - start at City Council, them state, then national. 

Working Family Party does not seem to build infrastructure and has to work to keep its line on the ballot. DSA has not reached a point where it would run on its own outside the Dems. Maybe never. But some segments on the left mock DSA for working in basic infrastructure to undermine Dem centrist machines and demand they abandon the strategy and form a third labor party. Good luck with that and all the left infighting. 

The big story nationally was the Pat Ryan Hudson Valley win (only for next 4 months) - they focused on his emphasis on the abortion issue which I thought would not be enough - I thought he also should have dealt with the Republican rejection on Insulin relief and other economic issues. 

Ryan Grim

@ryangrim

Everybody is (understandably) focused on how Pat Ryan, not a lefty, leaned into abortion rights to win his NY special election, but is missing another consequential dynamic.  Half (!) his ad buy went behind this anti-corporate monopoly price gouging spot:

"As Ulster County Executive I used my power to hold greedy corporations accountable….Big corporations have too much power, it’s time our families had more.” This is not Rahm Emanuel’s swing-district strategy.

So a left-leaning Bernie type attack on corporate greed resonates.

Another story was the Nadler big win over Maloney - probably due to NY Times endorsement, and most important for our interest, the NYT endorsed Daniel Goldman (Levi Strauss heir - worth $250M) - UFT stayed out of these two. I didn't care for either one.

UFT endorsements

They did endorse Maloney - boo, Bowman- Yea, Crowley- double boo, and Birsport - double yea, Gustavo Rivera - yea, Espaillat - who ran someone against Rivera who beat the Bronx machine - go figure, Cordell Cleare - yea (she worked for Bill Perkins in 2009 and helped us out in protests against Eva) - click the link above for full list. 

The bottom line on UFT endorsements - they don't endorse the left unless they are incumbents (Bowman, Brisport). The Jackson endorsement deserves a deeper dive - down below.

DSA big wins:

The big one was the massive defeat of Queens machine corp dem supported Elizabeth Crowley who loses every election she runs into a more progressive candidate. She was backed by big corporate money.  And the UFT.

Kristen Gonzalez: 57.03%  Elizabeth Crowley: 31.89% Mike Corbett: 6.35% 

UFT failed badly with a Crowley endorsement - they'd never go for a DSA unless forced by incumbency and an obvious winner. Now they are forced to endorse a DSA (gag for them) next time.

So UFT did endorse former NYC teacher and MORE member re-elected with a slam:   Jabari Brisport: 69.09% Conrad Tillard: 15.33% Renee Holmes: 13.60% 

 

Ironic --- they endorsed a former MORE. But then again Unity has a bunch of former MORE members.

Back to D10 - The left won the vote but lost the election.

I've had some level of personal contact with Bowman, Jackson and Cleare. I saw Rivera in person at the Sam Seder Majority Report back in March. KidsPac lament the Dan Goldman win in D 10: 

Our only disappointment was Dan Goldman's win in the new Congressional District 10. Goldman, who spent millions of his own personal wealth on his campaign and also received funding from the pro-charter Walton family, only came out on top because there were so many progressive candidates who split the vote. Yuh-Line Niou, whom we would have endorsed if it weren't for Jo Anne Simon's stellar record in education, came in only a two points behind Goldman, and hopefully will be able to run against him on the Working Families Party line in the fall.  

I met Jo Anne Simon at Leonie's house for the Skinny Awards (Robert Jackson and John Lui were also there getting awards) and she felt she could run because there was no risk to her as she's still in her current office. I liked her and she attended our Medicare rally. 

Are progressives too dumb to win?

But Goldman won with 26% of the vote - meaning 74% are saddled with someone they didn't vote for. Liberals want to talk about suppression of votes in Georgia? Start here in NY which is one of the worst states on elections. The chaos this time deserves a follow-up post.

The corporate anti-left liberal media (no, not a contradiction) brand a Goldman win along with Adams for Mayor as an anti-left win for the center. Fact is that a bunch of Adams supported people didn't win. 

If you look at the candidates, the progressive vote depending on who you count - were almost 70% of the vote - but let's subtract all but Niou and Jones were true progressives. They were 42%. I do blame for Mondaire for jumping into this race. If he hadn't, Niou would have dented Goldman, even if she split that vote with Carlina - who got so much money from who know where I didn't put her in the progressive wing - though she reps the next door district from my apartment and has spoken well at Murray Hill neighborhood meetings. Without Jones, the story today would be different - though you can't automatically count Jones votes for Niou.

I question the "what the hell" view of Simon's running - she got 3k votes -

Let's talk Robert Jackson and the UFT  and his charter supported opponent who worked as an advisor to Mulgrew while announcing and running AGAINST Jackson - I wrote a piece in March making the claim the UFT wouldn't endorse Jackson and got a call from the UFT asking for a correction - which I did --

I was wrong - UFT/Unity HAS NOT YET Endorsed Jackson/Vasquez Contest, UFT Staff Director Memo on Senate Race -  - March 19, 2022

Let me remind you of the UFT staff memo re their colleague running against Jackson-

....while no one is expected to make any financial contribution to Angel's campaign, we recognize that there are those of you who will choose to show him your support.  If you voluntarily elect to contribute to Angel’s campaign you must make the contribution by check, mailed from your home (or other non-UFT mailbox) directly to Angel’s campaign headquarters. You may not hand Angel a check on UFT premises or during UFT work hours. --- Leroy Barr, Anthony Harmon, Staff memo, March 10, 2022

Isn't the very presence of Angel Vasquez deep in the halls of UFT power an ad for his campaign? When trolling for funding, the very fact he is so close to Mulgrew increases his fundraising and dampens Jackson's.

Wait, wait -- It was OK for people being paid by my dues to work against Jackson and for a charter school slug? Imagine if one of those people said they agreed with an opposition reso at a DA -- bye bye. Vasquez earned almost 120K working for UFT, part of the time while running against Jackson. So don't give me bullshit and excuses about the late UFT endorsement for Jackson. 

Some Unity supporting slug was trolling me today on twitter bragging about UFT endorsement of Jackson - which came way too late - he claims they followed the usual endorsement policy which came way too late --- they set the schedule and could have at least made an early effort on Jackson who deserved better than to be treated like any other candidate.

- I wrote that his opponent was sitting down the hall from Mulgrew and on UFT payroll - while running. In essence, our dues money was subsidizing Vasquez. He's reported on leave from the UFT. I would call on the ex bd to rule he doesn't return. Go work for Eva.

Here's the Kidspac letter:

Dear Norm --

Last night was a great night for public schools. Four out of our five endorsed candidates won their primaries: Jamaal Bowman, Robert Jackson, Cordell Cleare, and Gustavo Rivera.

Jackson's and Rivera's wins were especially thrilling as they had hundreds of thousands of dollars in dark money spent against them by the charter school lobby -- mostly from three billionaires: Jim Walton, Daniel Loeb, and Paul Tudor Jones. Rivera also beat big spending by the Bronx Democratic machine and Jackson by Adriano Espaillat and his crew in Upper Manhattan, trying to build their own machine.

Our only disappointment was Dan Goldman's win in the new Congressional District 10. Goldman, who spent millions of his own personal wealth on his campaign and also received funding from the pro-charter Walton family, only came out on top because there were so many progressive candidates who split the vote. Yuh-Line Niou, whom we would have endorsed if it weren't for Jo Anne Simon's stellar record in education, came in only a two points behind Goldman, and hopefully will be able to run against him on the Working Families Party line in the fall.  

But last night was a night to savor and celebrate the wins of four terrific education champions who we know will continue to fight to strengthen our public schools in Albany and DC!

Here's the decent NYT article on the internals in the Dem Party - 

In N.Y. Primaries, a Fight for the Democratic Party’s Future

The party’s more moderate establishment declared victory, but a closer look reveals the battle for the soul of the party will grind on.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/nyregion/maloney-biaggi-democrats-progressives-left.html 

what’s the difference between a progressive and a liberal? Some on the Left Turn Against the Label ‘Progressive’ - nyt, Brian Lehrer

This is an important article for me since I am so deeply interested in the internal issues in the Dem party and the non Dem Party left. 

The reporter was on Brian Lehrer and that's worth a listen - Michael Harrington's son called in to say his father was a Dem Socialist who wanted to see fundamental means of production socialized -- controlled by the people but faced the reality and functioned as a social democrat.

The discussion goes way beyond the NYT article --covering classic liberalism as being free market, touching on the dominant Neo-liberalism of both parties from the 70s- today, the difference between social democracy and dem socialism. They don't go into the DSA vs Dem party which would better define the issues.

Democrats: What Labels Do You Use? - https://www.wnyc.org/story/democrats-what-labels-do-you-use

I did an ed notes piece on the Dem Soc vs Soc Dem issue but can't find it.

Some on the Left Turn Against the Label ‘Progressive’

Democrats ran away from being called “liberal” in the 1990s. Now, a new breed of intellectuals wants them to ditch the word “progressive,” too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/25/us/politics/progressive-liberal-term-defined.html

Education Town Hall at Flushing Public Library with John Liu - Will the UFT Make a Token Showing?

I don't raise the issue of the UFT truly fighting budget cuts -- they seem to think a showing of UFT bureaucrats is enough. They seem to fear mobilizing rank and file in this battle.

My wife received a missive from Paul King, our local slime Republican candidate for congress against Dem Gregory Meeks -- a lesser slime. King, who is misusing his presidency of the Belle Harbor Neighborhood association to promote his candidacy, focused on how bad schools are and how we need charters to solve the problem. King views any Dem as a socialist -- like he will attack corp Dem anti progressive Meeks, whom I didn't support in the last election, as a socialist. At least Meeks is not openly anti-union (though he will always support corporate interests). But Meeks too has had links to pro-charters. So we are getting it from both sides. But King is so slimy I have to vote for Meeks with more enthusiasm than I'd like. He is a big enemy of the squad.

The budget crisis is currently the spear point and dagger to the heart of public ed of the Adams admin attack on teachers, their union and public schools. That's why I'm schlepping out on the #7 train to Flushing tonight for this town hall. 

John Liu was one of the winners of Leonie Haimson/Class Size Matters Skinny Award for his work on class size. There is an ed war brewing reminiscent of the Bloomberg days, as I reported yesterday. 

Teacher Shortage Helps Right wing degrade ed requi... 

NYCDOE (Intentional) Budget Chaos - Ed Deform Plot...

James reported on the ICE blog:

REPORT COUNCIL-MAYOR NEGOTIATING ON SCHOOL BUDGET RESTORATION; SENATOR JOHN LIU TOWN HALL IN FLUSHING WEDNESDAY

This information came today from Class Size Matters leader Leonie Haimson.

1. Just a quick message to let you know that according to sources, the City Council is back at the negotiating table with the Mayor, pushing him to restore the school budget cuts. Let's hope they make a deal and soon!  

2. Sen. John Liu is having an Education Town hall this Wed. August 17 at 6 PM at the Flushing Library. Sen. Liu was the main sponsor of the class size bill in the State Senate and it's important that as many parents show up as possible to support smaller classes, as there is a small but vocal contingent of Queens parents who have been harassing him on the issue. Sign up at 

https://bit.ly/JohnLiuEducationTownHall

Where: Flushing Library at 41-17 Main St

When: 6:00 PM - 7:30 PM

Leonie will be there. Norm Scott will be there as should Camille and me and many others.

Teacher Shortage Helps Right wing degrade ed requirements like charter schools do - Teacher Cert Programs Will Die a slow - or fast- death

Some may be deluded into thinking society as a whole laments a teacher shortage but in reality it offers a golden opportunity for the right. I saw on the news about major shortages in Florida. Do you think DeSantis cares? In fact he loves it. Bring immigrant people from abroad from "safe" places -- The Philippines seems to have the right stuff for them. Then there are the military people. 

Remember the Bloomberg years --- attempts to undermine experience and qualifications. They don't want people who will push back or even know anything. Tell them there never was slavery and they will be OK. Climate change? Ha. 

The goal is to turn teachers into cheap labor and the less training required the more people available and they don't have to pay as much. Increase the supply and decrease the demand. A key is to get rid of union influence -- the answer is to use the bogus choice issue to create alt non-union schools to public schools. 

Calls for Teacher Quality are bogus -- "quality" = less experience, non-union and cheaper. The choice of Weisberg exposes the plan.

James Eterno wrote:

He has tapped Dan Weisberg — who runs an organization focused on teacher quality and handled labor issues under Mayor Michael Bloomberg — to be his top deputy. That move is likely to raise eyebrows with the city’s teachers union, which has previously clashed with Weisberg...Blogger Gary Rubenstein has it right on what we are up against. Gary's blog post is called, The Tip of the Weisberg.

Saturday, December 11, 2021

ADAMS-BANKS LOOKS LIKE A FOURTH BLOOMBERG EDUCATION TERM

And so that seems to be coming to pass.

To stay in their profession, said a union leader, educators need "professional respect" including fair pay and the right "to make teaching and learning decisions for their students."

‘Five-Alarm Crisis’: Us Has Shortage of 300K Teachers, School Staff

The Adams admin is lined up with the anti-public ed crowd. James closed that Dec 2021 article with:

We should be organizing and mobilizing our members and allies to take away the mayor's power over public schools which sunsets in Albany next June and has to be renewed by the State Legislature and Governor to continue. Are we going to start hearing again how busting teacher unions is the civil rights issue of our time? We could very easily end up steamrolled by Adams who on education looks to be planning a fourth Bloomberg term. 

Good luck with that. The so-called budget crisis is a spear point.

A Dim Fictional Climate Future Turns Non-Fiction: The Flooding of Los Angeles - NYT

Hey, all you anti-abortionists and climate deniers --- if unborn fetuses are protected how about protecting future fetuses over the next hundreds of years?

 

I'm a big fan of Kim Stanley Robinson sci-fi. The Mars trilogy, as in most of his books, deals with things that are theoretically possible based on understood science. They are long books and at times suffer from over information.

 

I am currently reading the latest, the very scary Ministry For the Future.   

The book follows an international organization named the Ministry for the Future in its mission to act as an advocate for the world's future generations of citizens as if their rights were as valid as the present generation's. Beginning in 2025...

 

 Yesterday I came to a section about a massive rainstorm in California that totally flooded the entire Los Angeles basin and the description of how it happened is echoed by a major story in today's NY Times where fact echoes fiction - the chances of this happening now stand at 1 in 50. Another degree rise and it becomes 1 in 30. 

In this context, the new climate bill looks pitiful especially when you delve into the details -- which I will do later or tomorrow.

Here is the frightening NY Times piece and of course the right wing will say the science there is made up.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/12/climate/california-rain-storm.html

Even the West Coast woke are not woke enough:

Such perils had lurked at Oroville for so long because California’s Department of Water Resources had been “overconfident and complacent” about its infrastructure, tending to react to problems rather than pre-empt them, independent investigators later wrote in a report. It is not clear this culture is changing, even as the 21st-century climate threatens to test the state’s aging dams in new ways. One recent study estimated that climate change had boosted precipitation from the 2017 storms at Oroville by up to 15 percent. 

 

 

Yet California officials have downplayed these concerns about the capacity of Oroville’s emergency spillway, which were raised by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Such extreme flows are a “remote” possibility, they argued in a letter last year. Therefore, further upgrades at Oroville aren’t urgently needed.

In a curt reply last month, the commission said this position was “not acceptable.” It gave the state until mid-September to submit a plan for addressing the issue.

His findings, from 1982, showed that major floods hadn’t been exceptionally rare occurrences over the past eight centuries. They took place every 100 to 200 years. And in the decades since, advancements in modeling have helped scientists evaluate how quickly the risks are rising because of climate change.

For their new study, which was published in the journal Science Advances, Dr. Huang and Dr. Swain replayed portions of the 20th and 21st centuries using 40 simulations of the global climate. Extreme weather events, by definition, don’t occur very often. So by using computer models to create realistic alternate histories of the past, present and future climate, scientists can study a longer record of events than the real world offers.

Dr. Swain and Dr. Huang looked at all the monthlong California storms that took place during two time segments in the simulations, one in the recent past and the other in a future with high global warming, and chose one of the most intense events from each period. They then used a weather model to produce detailed play-by-plays of where and when the storms dump their water.

Those details matter. There are “so many different factors” that make an atmospheric river deadly or benign, Dr. Huang said. 

In the high Sierras, for example, atmospheric rivers today largely bring snow. But higher temperatures are shifting the balance toward rain. Some of this rain can fall on snowpack that accumulated earlier, melting it and sending even more water toward towns and cities below.  

NYCDOE (Intentional) Budget Chaos - Ed Deform Plot to degrade public and promote private - in Spades

The Adams administration was “pleased” that the cuts — which the mayor has said were necessary because of falling student enrollment — could be reinstated, according to Amaris Cockfield, a City Hall spokeswoman.... 

 

 “School starts in a few weeks. Our students do not need a drawn-out court fight,” said Michael Mulgrew, the president of the United Federation of Teachers. “The answer is for the mayor to restore the cuts.” - NYT Aug 8 - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/10/nyregion/school-budget-cuts-new-york-city-appeal.html

Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022

 

I explain MulgrewSpeak to my wife

When my wife read the Mulgrew comment about the mayor restoring the cuts, she, who often ignores ed stuff, called me upstairs to ask with a wtf: - Mulgrew is calling for restoring the cuts?

 

Mulgrew syntax. I had to explain what he really meant. But therein lies a major problem - the inept UFT response to the cuts in general. It's all surface and no depth. But yes, Mulgrew syntax getting my wife's attention is worth noting.

I covered the Aug. 4 rally with a tepid UFT presence -

• Mayor Adams Ed Budget Crisis - City takes multiple hit(s) in court, Successful Rally at Foley Sq, UFT Officialdom makes token showing

Imagine if they were able to bring out thousands - remember how Eva Moskowitz did it -- she's awful but we could use a leader with that sense of fight. At Thursday night's PEP meeting the mostly opposition faction in the UFT had a major presence -- my take is the leadership know what's coming and is hoping to toss roadblocks in the way and use political pull to forestall things while fighting off a more militant opposition -- which is really helping the deformers - who if given a choice will take the UFT over militancy.

 

While there is much scratching of the head out there from the liberal community, we also see some hard head critical analysis of what is really going on -- which I signed onto even before Adams' election -- lurking behind it all is privatization, pro-charter and the benefits to the corporate controlled politicians of weakening the UFT. That the union either doesn't recognize that -hard to believe -  but you tell yourself all kinds of stories when you don't have the DNA mechanisms to fight what's coming down the pike -- in fact, echo that with the general inept response of the UFT partners -- the center/right corp Democrats. 

(Oh, and before you start cheering over the big bill just signed wait for my post taking a deep dive into what's really going on -- a bigger win for corporations than working people.)

 

This is an excellent analysis by DOENUTS:

Pay careful attention. This is how a manufactured crisis is developed. This isn't how you manufacture a crisis per se (that's because the folks who are trying to manufacture this particular crisis are clumsy and clueless. They underestimated the strength of community and parent and teacher groups and, frankly, they didn't do their fiscal or demographic homework before they tried to run this play from the ol' Edreform playbook). But you and I are getting a very good look behind the curtain in real time about how to create one. This is the work of edreformers. They are running the same (boring) play as they did back in 2007-2013. It may be hard to see because the play is still in its infancy but this is how they do it. This is how they get their new charters and no bid contracts for their favorite private sector buddies and cuts to protections for educators of all backgrounds.  This is how it begins. They manufacture a crisis inside of the schools. Only "private sector" ingenuity and "workforce efficiency" will be able to save us. In the meantime, parents see the results from all the manufactured and determine to move their children to private or charter schools. ....A Manufactured Crisis, The DOENUTS Blog

DOENUTS lays out the full scenario which in a follow-up he will compare to the Post office privatization moves. What he doesn't address is the UFT role in all this which he may well yet do. Just think of this -- the current charter schools situation in NYC  has reduced potential UFT membership by big numbers. Imagine if they break the cap -- the UFT will wither away over time.

I would say if we look beyond 2007, the game plan began to be sketched out in the 80s. And our own union under the Shanker leadership initially, played handmaiden thoughout the ed deform movement - get with it DOENUTS -- there's no reform in the corp version.

It dovetails with others' analysis that this is an attack on the public school system and a move to create favorable political situation for privatization. There is so much there I could post the entire piece -- and I may do so yet -- but go read A Manufactured Crisis.

He promises in part 2 to connect the strategy to the post office privatization moves -- make it so ineffective by starving it people beg for UPS. Maybe we can see a Part 3 on the medical world privatization where Medicare is at risk -- including the actions of our own leader pushing privatized MulgrewCare. Also see the video I posted from a newly elected Ex bd member.

• Video - Ronnie Almonte - Recently elected Ex Bd member -  Speech and Article: NYC Schools Deserve Budget Boosts, Not Cuts

Let me say this once and again -- while there is a plan lurking behind the project - the implementers are inept.

James Eterno at the ICEUFT Blog also has some thoughts,

SCHOOL BUDGET CUTS ARE ON AGAIN AS CITY WINS A ROUND IN COURT (Updated with Attorney Barbieri Statement) - The basics from Twitter on the city's victory in court today: Statement from Plaintiff's attorney:

As does Leonie - Class Size Matters

Statement on the Appellate Court decision yesterday - August 10, 2022

And then look at this one -- if they are cutting because we lost kids, how about 4k new migrant kids with more to come -- keep em coming Gov Abbott - you are undermining ed deform in NYC>

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/education/ny-scramble-to-enroll-asylum-seeking-kids-20220811-pepdihpitbc67he5ke3ibptvuu-story.html

NYC Education Dept. scrambles to enroll influx of migrant kids as school year approaches

Aug 11, 2022 at 6:04 pm

New York City’s Education Department is facing a logistical nightmare as the start of the school year approaches: registering potentially thousands of recently-arrived asylum-seeking kids for school in less than a month.

City officials estimate more than 4,000 migrants from Central and South America have sought refuge in New York and filled city homeless shelters in recent weeks — many on buses sent by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

For the city’s school system, that means identifying, enrolling, and securing additional services for hundreds, maybe thousands, of newcomers with no knowledge of U.S. schools, unstable housing and limited English proficiency — all by the start of classes on Sept. 8.

Education Department officials said they’re training partner agencies and shelters on how to support the migrant children’s educational needs.

Making matters more complicated, many of the kids may need specialized services that not offered in the closest school, advocates say.

All city public schools are required to provide “English as a New Language” services to students who need them. But not all schools have “dual-language” programs, where teachers alternate between English and Spanish, or bilingual social workers and counselors who can provide mental health support in another language.

If kids end up in schools without the appropriate services in September, it’s likely to cause more headaches for everyone, advocates said.

“It’s not fair to families or schools to have this rush of kids enrolling in programs where there’s not sufficient supports available to only to have kids transfer a few weeks later,” Pringle said. “No one wants that.”

Still, many educators are doing all they can to ensure the newcomers feel welcome next month.

In Manhattan’s District 2, where officials are expecting between 100 and 200 new students, schools are holding in-person registration drives, giving out backpacks and adjusting the schedules of their English as a New Language teachers in preparation, district superintendent Kelly McGuire told families.

For one migrant family, Education Department outreach has already made a big difference.

Nestor Enrique Torrealba, who arrived in New York with his wife and two daughters last month after a grueling journey from Venezuela, thought his kids weren’t eligible to attend school because of their immigration status — until DOE staffers showed up at the family’s shelter and explained their options.

And then this one - let's cut teachers and hire more safety agents.

A push to hire school safety officers awakens an old debate - Gothamist

https://gothamist.com/news/a-push-to-hire-school-safety-officers-awakens-an-old-debate