United for Change UFT 2022 Election Complaint Filed June 6 - Time runs out for Full UFT response - Is Department of Labor next stop?

I wrote back in June:

Will the threat of going to Dept of Labor force reforms? Probably not, but by publicizing among UFT members, it will raise the idea that Unity is an entity of lack of democracy.

So why are we documenting these violations? There may come a day where the oppo is close enough to win and the Unity machine will actually attempt to steal the election and this document is a cease and desist order and also blueprint for the future where my hope is the oppo lays all this out up front before the election begins.

Sept. 6 the 3 month time limit the UFT had to respond to the United for Change election complaint ran out and according to Department of Labor rules, we have one month to go to the DOL to lodge the complaint. James Eterno, a major player in the complaint process, posted an update on the ICE blog where James has posted a list of complaints:

UFT BLOWS OFF MOST UNITED FOR CHANGE ELECTION COMPLAINTS THAT WERE FILED JUNE 6

You might recall that on June 6, 2022, United for Change filed 32 complaints with the UFT about violations of federal labor law and regulations in the recent UFT officer election by Unity Caucus -UFT. We reported on it here on June 10. We didn't say Hugo Chavez was hacking into election machines or that dead people were voting en masse. 

Right on that. It was all paper ballots despite our attempts to get electronic voting, opposed by the leadership because there is danger to have more people voting - call it Trump light. We observed the election counting process and while I have had issues with the way the process run by the AAA, we didn't spot anything in the actual counting process to raise any objections to in the complaint, which was about the campaign and the misuse of UFT resources to favor Unity Caucus. In other words, we are not claiming "The Big Steal." Unity has enough cheating opportunities in how they structure the election:

• The Cheat Goes On - UFT Democracy/Election Outrage...

Did enough votes get swayed by the actions we listed in the complaint? I will share my thoughts after the case is decided - if we go to the DOL. My personal goal is to affect future elections - stop district reps from using our resources. On the other hand, Unity leaflets are so lame and probably cost them votes so it's not a big deal to me.

On June 6, 2022 (celebrating my 51st wedding anniversary), I and other members of the United for Change election committee, filed a 75 page election complaint with the UFT. After 3 months, if we haven't received a final response from UFT & AFT, then we have a one month window to file with DOL. If we don't file, the internal process (UFT & AFT) just continues and we have the opportunity to file with DOL after we do receive the final response. 

James wrote:

Christina [Gavin] ended up being frustrated with me because I was rushing her to be timely with this action as the election is fading from memory. She wanted to be thorough and I think she succeeded while still managing to be timely. We thank her for her efforts.

I had a lot of back and forth between James, an old hand like me, and Christina over how to proceed.

Christina, who had never been involved in UFT politics until she pitched in to help with finalizing petitions in mid-February, led the way and James jumped on board. Over the past month Sheila Zuckowsky from Retiree Advocate lent her relentless analytical skills to the forensics. But it was Christina who brought an entirely new perspective to those of us who have been doing this for decades and just accepted the Unity machine would play with the election. She wouldn't accept the status quo. We had a lot of fun in this election. Kudos to her.

And of course working with James is always fun even if we fight a lot - which we have over the past 2o years - but it never gets personal.

And let me note that working with Christina since I first met her in mid-February added new insights into the election process for an old hand like me. She is reliable, relentless, demanding and meticulous in her work and as someone who had little experience with internal UFT politics, an amazingly quick learner. And is now on the MORE steering committee, which is a plus for MORE.

Before I proceed, let me go over key dates:

Feb.-March 2022 - AFT Candidate Christina Gavin contacts Department of Labor for advice on process for election complaints, the first time opposition forces explored this process as a way to curb Unity violations. She reports the UFT has 3 months to reply from date of complaint. Upon reply, the next step is to go to parent body, the AFT for appeal. DOL says we should follow the complaint process as set out in UFT by-laws. We find there are no bylaws. Only mention is in UFT constitution which states Ex Bd decides. Only candidates can lodge complaints.

March-April 2022: Individual election complaints filed. Unity Exec Bd rules. Christina comes under attack by Unity.

• Stop UFT/Unity Persecution of Christina - Sign an ...
• Christina Gavin Defends Her Reputation Against Fal...

Addendum: Since the election, Christina has continued to work hard in helping the union organize librarians and fighting budget cuts. She continues to not illegally use union resources or harass/behave aggressively towards anyone.

Christina does the work at John Liu Town Hall

Wed. Mar. 16 - At a meeting Christina and I had with Leroy Barr and UFT lawyer Beth Norton, she told us the UFT appeal process (which is not encoded anywhere - they make these up as they go along.):

1. contact UFT

2. LeRoy and Beth investigate

3. LeRoy presents a Report & Recommendation to the Executive Board

4. The Executive Board votes to approve or disapprove

5. Appeals to the AFT ATTN: Fedrick Ingram and David Strom

6. AFT appeals go to the DOL

May 11-12, 2022: UFT election officially ends with vote count.

May, 2022 - Christina Gavin compiles complaints into a 75 page document, with input from James Eterno.

Read the full complaint Christina put together (if she didn't do it no one would have to this extent): 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PvfYaxh7990D1J1J7uQ2WKCp67fH_YIXZ56JTKUsMh8/edit

June 6: UFC Election committee files complaint

(Note: There are still weeks to go until summer break and UFT Ex Bd still meets in June.)

July/August, 2022: James Eterno touches base with DOL officials asking for advice if UFT doesn't reply. He is informed that both the UFT and the parent body, the AFT, have 3 months to reply. James begins to point out that if we don't get a reply or get one very late, the AFT will run out of time on Sept. 6 as will the UFT. DOL surprised there are no by-laws.

August 26: Despite not having received a reply, we send a letter to the AFT informing them we have not yet received a reply from the UFT and urging them to get involved, giving them notice they are held to the same 3 month time frame as the UFT. We ask them to begin their own investigation. There is some confusion as to how we are appealing when we haven't gotten a reply to appeal yet?  We request that Randi Weingarten and 3 other AFT Council members recuse themselves since they ran on the Unity slate.

It is clear that we should have asked Unity caucus candidates in the UFT to recuse themselves too. We didn't.

Sept. 2, 2:45 PM: We receive a response from Leroy Barr which I don't see until 6PM.* 

Sept. 3: UFC sends an appeal to the AFT, following up on its Aug. 26 email.**

Technically the email we sent is not properly an "appeal" because we have not yet received a final reply. 

Sept. 6: 3 months DOL time limit expires for both UFT and parent AFT according to DOL rules.

Sept. 12, 19: UFT Ex Bd meetings - Possibility complaint will be reported and voted on.

Oct. 6: Deadline to go to DOL.  At this juncture (prior to receiving a final response), if we don't go to the DOL now, we can still go within one calendar month of whenever UFT & AFT complete their responses. 

Some don't think the process is even worth it. Others do. This decision must be made by the various groups in the UFC coalition together. 

My position is to wait to see what the UFT and then the AFT come up with. 

I will do a blog on the pros and cons of going to the DOL and the potential political fallout.

Here are the Sept. 1 and Sept. 2 docs.

UFT Elections 2022 - Norm takes a deep dive into #UFTelections2022

Look for further election analysis in my appearance on Noah Teachey's PD Podcast coming soon. Quick takeaways:

• Unity got slammed, losing votes in all divisions compared to the past.
• I thought newbie UFCers who actually thought we would win would be crushed - instead many were excited and already talking about 2025.
  
• UFC didn't pick up what Unity dropped (except possibly in retirees and a little bit in high schools), just about matching the 2016 oppo numbers. Beware of those calling this a great victory. At this rate of growth I will be 121 when the oppo wins in 2046.
  
• UFC gained from 2019 oppo disaster and restored a sense of an opposition, getting the most votes the oppo has ever gotten, winning the high schools with 55% and almost winning the middle schools with 44% and closing the gap in elementary and winning 33% overall, the closest in a long time.  Despite the gains, UFC did not get out the vote as well as I expected. I began the campaign thinking we could win all three teaching divisions. While we did get 44% of the teacher vote, that is due mostly to Unity's failure to bring out its vote, not due to UFC getting a big turnout - matching 2016 is still status quo - as iw winning the 7 HS Ex Bd as we did in 2016. Let's say UFC could win in 2025 or 2028 -- with these numbers? I'm not sure there is enough of a union underneath to deliver.
  
• Possibly the biggest achievement of the 2022 election may be the very existence of a United for Change broad coalition. While formed as a temporary vehicle for this election, there are signs UFC will continue in some form while giving each caucus space to develop. The 7 electeds represent all the groups and the candidates have pledged to continue working together. I love that they come from MORE, Solidarity, New Action, ICE - but also they are broad-minded to see outside their own caucus. Preliminaty meetings indicate excitement at working together.
• Is spending enormous time and money flooding teacher mail boxes with lit - for both Unity and oppo - really worth it. Also - we thought social media would bring out votes -- it didn't. Few will agree with me on these points but I will continue to stand by them. The numbers prove it.
  
• Read my pre-election comments posted July 2021: https://ednotesonline.blogspot.com/2021/07/uft-elections-part1-historical-analysis.html

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Tuesday night I made my third appearance on Noah Teachey's PD Podcast. I could spend hours talking to Noah - and I did - I think I wore him out and he was about to nod off. I talked his ear off with my analysis of the UFT election. When he releases the podcast in a week or so, it will echo many of the things I say here - but with my heavy Brooklyn accent. When I let Noah talk he asked excellent questions. I will post a link when it is ready.

 

My info is coming from the work of Jonathan Halabi on his blog. Here are his last few posts.

• UFT Election Turnout: Some Observations May 15, 2022

• UFT Election Turnout: Four Charts May 15, 2022

• Analyzing UFT Election Results: My Data May 14, 2022

Turnout: It's not just apathy 

Jon goes deep into turnout questions. I hear people in oppo say the biggest issue is apathy about the union. I don't agree - it's apathy about the union elections and general cynicism about elections and caucuses. Many refuse to vote consciously - they don't think it will make a difference.

Then there are the numbers of people who wanted to vote and didn't get ballots plus the number of late ballots that came in. See below at the end of this article for an example from a guy who wanted to vote UFC.

Below are his charts for functional, retiree, elem, ms and hs, with numbers going back to 2004. You have to be UFT election freaks like us to dig into these numbers.

Let's go division by division. I suggest some reforms along the way.

 

Retirees - massive turnout - over 27K - the UFT is weakened with well over half the total votes come from the no longer working, Unity is strengthened. Lesson retiree impact on elections.

UFC got almost 8K, just short of 30%, which is the highest total by far in a general UFT election. Most attribute that vote to Mulgrewcare, but I don't see it that way. In last year's RTC election we also got 30% and Mulgrewcare was just being announced. I assumed we would go up to 35% or more. this year. But Unity was helped by the plan not being implemented due to the court case and Mulgrew tried to run away from it -- and in some ways was successful. Imagine of the opt-outers were paying $200 a month on Jan 1? It seems even Unity people who were unhappy came home. In the over 3K new votes this time, my guess is UFC and Unity split them with an edge to Unity -- which is sort of good but disappointing as I had hoped we would get a bigger chunk. Unity went all out organizing retiree chapters all over the nation -- all dominated by Unity retirees. 

 

I don't see us moving much beyond the 30% in the future and may in fact see a slippage. Unless Mulgrewcare is implemented. Watch outcomes in the RTC election in 2024 as Retiree Advocate remains active in the RTC chapter and as a crucial part of UFC.

 

Since only 50K voted overall and retirees had 27k of that - leaving in service total at 23k - it is clearer than ever that the entire UFT is under the thumb of the rigidly controlled  RTC chapter. We need drastic reform. I would lower the threshold for retiree votes from 23.5K to a sliding scale where retiree votes cannot count for more than 25% of voting totals. Some say they should not count at all but at this time that is going too far. A sliding scale could work but I would give them two ex bd and a possible ADCom VP for retirees. They are still an important component of the UFT and while they should not be able to control the entire election, we should recognize their worth, especially since I am one and have nothing better to do in life than UFT politics.

 

Functional - worst turnout, drop for Unity, 32% for UFC. 

 

It's hard to figure out this division which also included retirees - which is so weird  and makes it impossible for oppo to win these 19 Ex bd seats.  Also included is the massive mumber of Dist 75 people. Makes no sense. Teachers should vote in their division, not functional. We need to press for this reform.

 

Another major reform would be to separate out and report on each funct chapter and pull out retirees and give them and each functional their own ex bd seats.  Ie. - Guidance, secretaries, social workers, OT/PT etc each get an es bd seat based on their division vote. Unity doesn't want this - let's push for this reform, even if we have to expand the Ex bd.

UFC did about the same as MORE/NA/Sol did in 2016. We had hoped to make inroads due to the OT/PT chapter and some key social workers running. I think we missed an opportunity with secretaries -- I spoke to many on my distribution routes and they have a lot of complaints. One thing I thought of but too late -- have UFC people talk to their own school secretaries and other functionals in their own buildings and try to build a network. I hear that there are union organizing trainings people go through. They seem to leave out such fundamentals as talking to people at this level. UFC still got 32%, a record, due to the big drop in Unity votes.

 

Elementary - UFC had a shot but it was long

I began the campaign thinking we could win this even though the gap from 2016 was massive --5K vote difference. Unity got 7K and we got 2.5k in 2016. I was hoping Unity would look like 2013 with 5K and we could double our 2016 with a strong campaign. 

It didn't happen and we missed a big opportunity as Unity dropped under 5k and we didn't even match 2016. I thought UFC had more outreach in elementary but if we did the GOTV didn't work. I got indications early on with the lack of contention in UFC by the caucuses for Elem Ex bd positions that there was not a sense of winning and when we struggled with petitions early on in that division, I pretty much gave up on winning this division.

34K elem ballots were sent out -- a lot of places to mine in the future. The oppos has a lot of work to do in elementary school. My suggestion: Choose a few key districts where UFC people have decent elem numbers and expand their networks with a local outreach program. Otherwise 2025 will be the same.

 

Middle school - Close but no cigar - Unity failure, but UFC makes no progress

We have election violations complaints but not enough to claim we lost due to those. I know there were schools where we could have/should have flushed out enough votes to win.

We thought we could win this and aimed our leafleting campaign at middle schools and literally got nothing more than we got in 2016. We barely cracked 900 votes in the entire MS division which has almost 11K. Unity totals were also abysmal --1200. We had 4 great Ex Bd candidates and it is a real shame we couldn't come up with 300 votes. I hear the biggest celebration inside Unity was that Daniel Alicea would not be on the Ex Bd -- after having voted for Unity in 2019, he became a leader of UFC and some in Unity seem to despise deserters. Unity isn't happy with HS winner Nick Bacon, still technically an elected Unity from 2019.

High Schools -- 55% for UFC waa big - I was hoping for 60%.

Ok - I'm a tough grader. Unity got slammed - under 2K - and they really wanted to win this one and there was great disappointment inside the fortress because HSVP Janelle Hinds is popular and people see this as a defeat for her personally. 

Remember, her opponent Jonathan Halabi got 600 more HS votes than she did and pre-1994 he would be on the adcom - as her 2016 opponent James Eterno who got more HS votes than her would have been hten. (Unity changed the rules after Shulman won in 1985 to at large.) 

Considered in the running as a Mulgrew successor, her fans at 52 and beyond were supposedly devastated by this loss. What were they thinking? Unity has fundamentally lost the high schools for almost 4 decades. If we had lost this time, UFC would have very little future. 

I'm adding this point to original post: Unity recruited candidates for HS seats with intention of winning: they chose big school CL or former CLs. They were turned down by some people they asked. Jonathan and I estimated they would bring in some votes. They didn't. Does that reflect Unity failure? Did their own schools come out for them but few others? Or did their own colleagues reject Unity?

Still -- over 21k high school ballots mailed, we have loads of people in the HS and we end up with 2500 votes? We won but UFC people shouldn't risk dislocating their shoulders by too much patting themselves on the backs. Instead, figure out how to get 3-4K in future elections for HS to make up shorfalls in other divisions for a real shot at winning it all. 

A major satisfaction is the election of Nick Bacon who ran with Unity and won for AFT in 2019. He was recruited by his Dist Rep. Imagine the egg on face. Unity seems to hate Nick almost as much as Daniel Alicea. Both of them were keys to bringing UFC together. While we see a number of former oppo people on the UFT Ex Bd with Unity, we now have our own reverse example in Nick -- maybe the first time we've seem an ex bd person go from Unity to oppo.

More from Jonathan

UFT Election Turnout: Four Charts

Let’s dive into the UFT election results. Let’s start with turnout. (For the beginning of the analysis, click here)

Votes Cast tells us more than Turnout Percentage

UFT Election Turnout: Some Observations

 

How many ballots were never received? How many came in late and weren't counted? Will we ever know?

 

Hi Norm, I just received my UFT ballot today [May 13] ,what should I do?  I asked for a replacement at 5:30 pm on the day of the deadline [April 25]  to ask for a replacement ballot. I was told it was too late but they sent me a ballot anyway.  Thanks Bill 

Let's see -- He asks for a ballot a half hour after deadline and receives it 19 days later. When did AAA send it out? Why?

TODAY - Meet UFC Winning HS Candidates Plus Halabi (Who pre-1994 would have won the HS VP) - #TalkOutofSchool 1PM- @WBAI 99.5 FM

Daniel Alicea, who missed by a hair of being elected to the UFT Ex Bd, interviews the HS winning candidates, along with Jon Halabi who got the most votes for HS VP from high school teachers by a wide margin but will not be on AdCom due to a Unity change in the constitution in 1994 that made that position at-large - a response to the Michael Shulman win in the 1985 election - which Unity protested and lost even worse in the second round. 

A major reform of the UFT would be re-instituting the ability of each division to elect its own VP. The "winner", Janella Hinds, also finished second to James Eterno in the 2016 election. Imagine having UFT giants like James and Jon on the leadership board? Yes, only one  of 12 people but right now the 15K people who voted for UFC which got 42% of the teacher vote, have zero representation on the AdCom and only 7% of the Ex Bd. #UFTDemocracyInAction

I'm going to advocate that the electeds bring a UFT reform practice to the Ex Bd and DA and let Unity vote it down overwhelmingly and send a message to the membership how their rights are abridged.

I can't tell you how impressed I am with the #magnificent7. They bring diversity to the opposition movement itself by representing all factions of United for Change.

Unity hacks attacked us for this diversity. They are only comfortable by being in a Borg caucus.

Of course you all know Lydia Howrilka, who I first met about ten years ago when she was going through her struggles with an evil principal and lived to fight another day. She is the acknowledged leader of Solidarity Caucus which she has kept relevant with her enormous energy and turned them into a serious player in UFT politics. She brings to the table commitment to helping teachers in trouble for no fault of their own.

Ibeth Mejia, CL of Aviation HS, comes to activism through her connection to James Eterno, who was exiled to her old school when Jamaica HS closed. James became a mentor to her and Luli Rodriguez who ran for UFT Treasurer. Ibeth transferred to Aviation and ran against I believe a Unity person and won. I've never met her in person, but from everything I know is a force. And during the campaign she and Lydia have developed a good working relationship. Ibeth is affiliated with both ICE and Solidarity. 

Edward Calamia - New Action. I've never met him or know nothing about him but hear he is a great guy.

Nick Bacon, New Action, is a chapter leader at a school in the old George Washington Campus, where Retiree Advocate Ellen Fox used to reign as CL. He has become a friend. I first met him in a UFT history study group set up by Solidarity member and one of ICE's founders, John Lawhead last summer. Nick quickly bonded with many in the oppo and became a leader, having only joined New Action recently, being appointed co-chair along with Mike Shulman. Go read Nick on the renovated New Action blog, especially his great reporting on Ex bd meetings. Now he can do that on the inside. New Action – UFT

I've met Ilona Nanay, MORE, twice. The first time was when MORE had a petition return party at Bryant Park on Feb. 12, a beautiful day weather wise. We had a brief chat but she was delightful to talk to. Then one Sunday in April she drove out to my house to pick up flyers and we talked for over an hour and boy was I impressed with her. I could have talked to her for hours. She is a chapter leader too. 

Alex Jallot, UFT Chapter Leader at Pace High School, is also from MORE and I've had only a few contacts with him but was super impressed with his interview with my fave podcaster, Noah, did a great interview with Alex: https://www.listennotes.com/search/?ocid=724915fa1f4c4efc9d27e6585a542319&q=alex+jallot. I'm looking forward to seeing him on the Ex Bd.

Ronnie Almonte, MORE, is someone I don't know. I think I met him once. I hear good things about him from a common friend. I trust her judgement. 

 

I think the iterations of this group will be fascinating to watch. To put up a reso you need 5 signatures, so if there is something controversial they will have to work toether to get 5 out of the 7. Might there be areas of disagreement? Sure -- that is a good thing - even if they disagree publicly at Ex Bd meetings. 

Yes for diversity of opinion.

Here is Daniel's announcement (and regrets that he and Yvonne Reason, Olivia Swisher and Kevin Prosen missed joing the Magnificent 7 on the board.

 

Join me, Saturday, May 14, at 1 pm for #TalkOutofSchool on @WBAI 99.5 FM for my chat with Jonathan Halabi, the longest-serving HS chapter leader, who will share his expert analysis of the 2022 UFT election. 

Also my interviews with the newly elected High School division teachers for UFT Executive Board.

They’ll share their vision for our city's teacher's union and city schools.

You can also tune in online at: http://wbai.org

UFT Election Riff Raff - Norm Speaks at UFT Ex Bd, Heads to Vote Count at 8 AM

I wanted to be on the election committee to raise a lot of questions and may have missed the ball on many.- Norms confessions. 

Methinks Unity already has a lot more election info than UFC does: Turnout overall and in each division and may have been monitoring it all along. I had asked election chair Carl Cambria this question on turnout around the second week -- do we have numbers. He said he'd get back to me. Still waiting but I'd bet a bundle that info has been leaked to Unity all along.

If UFC were to win, Unity would refuse to hand over the keys and go to court to

protest. There is precedent when they did that to NAC in 1985 when Shulman won the HS VP. I wanted to write about the repercusions of a UFC win locally, nationally and even internationally due to the importancs Unity control is at the state and national level in supporting the Dem party and its fundamental neoliberalism. I'd bet anything that if UFC won and Unity went to court, they would win a new election.

Jon Halabi has two interesting posts with a deep dive. Must reading today before the results come in.

• What Would a Big Unity Win in the UFT Elections Look Like?

• What Would a Big United for Change Win in the UFT Elections Look Like?

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

I'm in the city getting ready to head down to 52 Broadway where the election vote count begins at 8. We can expect hours of opening envelopes and sorting the color-coded ballots into batches. I will try to live blog the count if I can get onto wifi.

Some key questions we intend to ask:

• With the deadline being a ridiculous Monday, 8AM, I want to know if there was any mail delivery at all on Monday before that time. Was there mail delivery to AAA on Sunday? Saturday? What day and time was the last acceptable mail delivery?
• How many ballots have been received after 8AM Monday and will be received? How many late ballots will there be? This is a crucial question given the vote suppression through limited GOTV days (spring break taking a chunk) and limited time for ballot replacements. Imagine of there are thousands of late ballots that go where? In the trash? We want to see Monday and Tuesday delivery ballots brought to 52 Broadway so we can examine the envelopes.
  
• Were member names scanned and tabulated as they came in or were they all done Monday after 8 AM at AAA? If as they came in, AAA had a grasp of turnout, even by districts. Did AAA at any point share turnout numbers with their employers, the UFT? If so, Unity would have had a read on turnout that UFC didn't and could have driven turnout where they were strong.
• We are asking for the names of every person who voted. That is a Dept Of Labor union election rule. I expect resistance. But we have a right to spot check to see if ballots were handled properly.
  
• When did the ballots get brought to 52 Broadway from the AAA at 120 Broadway? Monday? Or Tuesday morning? Who watches the ballots before we get there? Just a thought.

I spoke at the UFT Ex Bd last night during the 10 minute open mic period - I was running late making ferry connections and Leroy Barr was kind enough to hold my slot. I took the Rockaway ferry and arrived at Wall St at 5:15 and could have gone over to the UFT to try to speak in person. In fact I asked Leroy Barr to order me some Beef Wellington for dinner. But with covid etc I decided to jump on the quickest uptown ferry to 34St and I got to my apartment after 6 for the zoom. At the end of my statement I told Leroy he can have my beef wellington.

Nick Bacon's notes captured the essence of what I said - I copied and pasted below with a link to his blog at New Action. I didn't get notice I could speak until 5 PM and I was on the ferries, so I hurriedly scribbled some notes. I had the full ten minutes and could have easily filled them about this election but only was able to put together around 5 minutes.

What I didn't say but wished I did (in addition to the election questions I raised above) is related to the case of the UFC candidate who protested to the union that he was put on the ballot without his permission. I believe he believes that and he is probably right. But so is UFC in thinking he was OK with it based on documents I saw and submitted. I also spoke and texted with him over the weekend. 

The Exec Bd Important: Hell NO -- Leroy, Mulgrew reports and a Schirtzer Question

His problem is that he was told how important the Ex Bd position is and he is so busy he knew he couldn't serve in an important position so he asked the union to remove his name from the ballot. Leroy's report indicates that if we won the elementary schools they would remove him even though after I explained just how inconsequential and irrelevant the UFT Ex Bd was - a rubber stamp - except for Schirtzer - he was fine with being on the ballot. I wish I had said just how inconsequential the Ex Bd is.

I posted my sort of predictions yesterday:

• UFT Election 2022 is officially over: Norms Numbers - The Big If - Retiree Turnout

I don't see a bg UFC win and we need to determine what constitutes a big Unity win. Under 70% is a big win in election world but in UFT world anything in the 60s, especially the low 60s, is a win but not big.

And DOENUTS, who split his ballot, seems to match my estimates except for retirees.

• The Doenuts Blog My Picks For The UFT Election -

I fear that newbie activists

Nick Bacon -- UFT Executive Board Minutes 5-9-2022: Election Complaints, PERB, and APPR

Published May 9, 2022 Uncategorized Leave a Comment

6:01 LeRoy Barr: Open mic period: Norm Scott supposed to speak, but isn’t here. Mike Schirtzer mentions he’s running late. Leroy says if he’s running ten minutes late for the ten minute period, maybe we’ll give him 60 seconds? (Laughter).

Norm Scott: Given 10 minutes by LeRoy. Election stuff. Election is over, we’ll have results in a day or two. Things get heated. We’ve seen it. Things will tone down once it’s over and we can have some dialogue I hope. This election brought out a lot of people who weren’t involved before. Some were neutral or on other sides. But one thing that people were enraged by the most was that people weren’t being heard, whether at the DA or elsewhere. People don’t mind losing a vote if they have a chance to present their point of their view. Fine with majority rule, but the minority needs a chance to present their case. If we don’t get to talk about where we differ or disagree-that can’t happen.

Election complaints: different levels of complaining. One thing that bothered some was that people who were working for the union were doing things on union time. We were trying to track that, which caused some consternation. But we felt that if you were on the clock, you shouldn’t engage in union politics. But what we found was that we were being charged for doing things on school time. Well if we did, that shouldn’t be a UFT issue, that’s DOE. We were also stopped from giving flyers in mailboxes by Unity CLs. Can understand when a principal doesn’t get the memo, but people running on your slate should be told that they have to allow us in. We had times where we went 3 times, and were told by CLs that we wouldn’t be allowed to put in mailings.

Some complaints on what UFC has done. One complaint tonight. We had a candidate, who did not realize he was a candidate. He complained. Friday, I spoke to him and he said he didn’t complain – he made an inquiry. He showed him what he wrote, and saw that yes, it did look like a complaint. So I’m going to explain what happened – a misunderstanding. This candidate indicated he had an interest in running, but was convinced that exec board would be too much work (even though the food is great!). Once he saw his name, he realized he didn’t have the time. When I spoke to him on Friday, explained the exec board and that it involved a zoom every 2 weeks, he said that he’d be fine serving under those conditions. He had thought it was a much more time-intensive position. So this was a misunderstanding on the part of the both sides. I told him we regret it, but part of the issue is he didn’t make it quite clear. There was a lack of clarity. We have addressed that and hopefully to the satisfaction of the exec board. Please enjoy my Beef Wellington.

LeRoy Barr: 3 election complaints.

1. What Norm touched on. This complaint is election fraud by (name redacted). Complaint was made to Carl Cambria that he was placed on ballot without knowledge or consent. Spoke with Norm about this improper nomination. Recommend that complaint be upheld. In future elections, all candidates should sign a form to their nomination. Executive Board reserves right to take future action if election is impacted. Apparently candidate wasn’t aware he was on the ballot until members of his school approached him. In text exchanges, it appears that the candidate was interested in one position (NYSUT Delegate), but not executive board. Appears that there were communication issues, and our text data isn’t complete (parts of conversation deleted). The candidate does not want to be on the ballot and this allegation should be upheld. Mike Schirtzer debates. He gave his information to be on the ballot, said he wanted one position but not another, is that correct? Vote: Upheld, Schirtzer abstaining.

UFT Election 2022: And the Winner is..... Don't be a member of the Garbage Can Caucus

The overwhelming majority of UFT active members in elections over the past two decades - over 75% - are collectively known as:

• garbage can caucus - ballot goes into circular file

  

  DON'T BE ONE OF THESE VOTERS
  

  
  
• I don't give a crap caucus
• a plague on both your houses" caucus 

There are signs these caucuses will be the big winners in the current election.

 

A major hope of the United for Change coalition has been to Get Out the Vote while the main goal of Unity has been to mouth GOTV while doing what it could to suppress the vote by rejecting electronic voting (which is used in many other areas of the union, including chapter and SBO elections and limiting the deadline (already passed) for those who don't get ballots to get a replacement. 

Some Unity CL have been telling their principals to deny entry to UFC lit and I will be targeting them by name as info comes in and holding their district reps accountable. We have at least two reports of CL suppression in a district where the rep is on the election committee -- shameful.

I've always maintained that the long-term key to beating Unity is having strong activists in every division of the UFT in the schools. People who can rouse a sleepy electorate and get them to vote. 

 

While retirees are always the most motivated voters in every election - that was good for Unity in the past. This year they are once again the main activated base in the UFT who I believe will vote in its highest totals ever, but this time with a different twist due to MulgrewCare. Will the increased turnout go to Unity or UFC? I'm betting on the latter. But will it be enough to counter general in school apathy?

One candidate reported such a level of disillusionment and fatigue in her school that the UFT elections is not even a pimple on the radar of many.

 

UFC activists have been going around their schools and are finding that even this week, they are discovering many people who have not bothered to vote yet. One guy got 6 people to vote in the past few days. That bodes ill for the turnout if even in schools where someone has been talking about the election on a regular basis for months and people have not yet voted. There just aren't enough people doing that.

So even if there is an uptick from in school voters, the winner of this election might be the Apathy Caucus, which would actually be a win for Unity since Apathy is what they thrive on. Good for Unity and the center right Democratic Party, bad for the union and the membership.

 

Let's hope we are in for a pleasant surprise. Even if Unity wins, if the margins shrink due to turnout that is a move in the right direction. If working UFT member turnout is 25% -- that's a bummer for all. If retiree per centage of the vote is 50% of the total voters the future for the membership is even dimmer than it has been as the Adams/Bloomberg tandem ready for an all out attack on public schools and the promotion of charters.

Lydia on a Professional Development podcast

Meanwhile -- check this podcast out by one of my fave podcasters (I appeared on it twice) with one of my fave people who I bonded with during this election who I hope will be on the UFT HS Ex Bd:

A new Professional Development podcast episode dropped last night!

Lydia Howrilka:

"I was interviewed- thanks to UFC for coaching me in the specifics of transferring before the 2005 Contract!- and while I talk a bit about Solidarity and my own story, I try to throw jabs at Unity and endorse UFC in the process."

Please share on your Social media.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6SlWEjiGQcbwfHSwv0JyeW?si=0d9pitJYQF6EGHFPRkTpEA&utm_source=copy-link

 

 

CALL AAA 800-218-5524 BY TODAY 5 PM - Last Call for Election BallotUFT/Unity Sqeezes People Into Tight Deadline

Eterno at the ICE blog

LAST CHANCE TO REQUEST A BALLOT FOR UFT ELECTION

The UFT election is ongoing. It is a mail-in ballot due Monday, May 9, 2022. Since so many people were away last week, it would seem that a deadline date of April 22, 2022, to request a ballot for the UFT Election is too early. However, April 22 is the date on some UFT election forms as the last day to call for a ballot if you didn't get one. 

On the other hand, the UFT website says the deadline date to request a ballot is today, April 25. Since people were on vacation last week, we believe you can request a ballot today. This is the exact wording on the UFT Website.

Didn't get a ballot?

Any member who has not received a ballot by April 18, or has received an incorrect ballot, should notify the AAA via phone: (800) 218-5524 (Monday - Friday 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. only) or e-mail: UlerioS@adr.org. Request for ballots must be made promptly – no later than 5 p.m. on Monday, April 25, 2022.

Here is the screenshot:

 

Another example of things going wrong. 

 

Some people are just becoming aware of the UFT election and realize they did not get a ballot and yet the deadline is today at 5 PM to call the AAA. She called and was told the deadline was Friday April 22. The UFT is sending out mixed information. Or they didn't tell the AAA the deadline was extended.

In a ridiculous decision the original deadline was Friday - during vacation week. We protested and they extended it to today. Gee, thanks for nothing.

I just got a call from a retiree who did not get a ballot -- a friend called her to remind her to vote and she realized she did not get it. So she called the UFC number -- which is linked to my phone and I called the AAA number and they are accepting requests until 5 PM today. Otherwise people can pick up a ballot in person at AAA 120 Broadway April 28 and 29. Check this out before you go: 800-218-5524.

I am calling the UFT election committee chair to ask for another extension. Ballots are due in 2 weeks and there's no reason they can't give people more time. 

How is UFT Election2022 different? Reason #1 UFC growth, #2 Unity defections

Mah nishtanah halailah hazeh mikol haleilot?  
How is this UFT election different from all other UFT elections?

1. On all other UFT elections, the opposition was either fragmented or even when working together were not very coordinated. This year United for Change breaks new ground.

2. Unity caucus votes almost unanimously. In this election we hear of split ballots or voting outright for UFC.

April 20, 2022 

I was interviewed by a reporter a few weeks ago and forced to think more deeply about this election and how it was different to the point my brain began to smoke. I was in a cafe at the time and didn't take notes, so I forgot what I said but I felt it was a good analysis. Little by little  it has begun to come back to me, mostly during nightmares.

So here is my first in a series with reasons number 1 and 2 -- out of about 10. They are in no particular order in terms of impact on the election - just listing them as they come to me - after I cool down from the cold sweats.

How is this Election Different from previous elections - #1 and #2 (with many more to come in future posts).

#1: The unique and inclusive United for Change coalition

We've had examples of coalitions in the past. NAC in 1979 and beyond. Three and then two separare caucuses had success in 1985 and 1991 especially, but each of the groups acted somewhat independently (though 1979 was special).  Mid-90s led to the merger of TAC and New Directions to form New Action but many (like me) sat these elections out. PAC formed in the late 90s and ran with NA but that was expedient. In the early oughts New Action began to buddy with Unity and TJC became active and we saw the formation of ICE out of the Ed Notes core. Both of them ran in some forms of coalitions in the 04, 07, 10 elections -- but completely separately. Barely worked together - and when they united to form MORE, there was lingering tensions.

So what makes UFC different? After all, it is an alliance of people who didn't get along in the past and there have been predictions of implosion after the election. I will do my best to build on the alliances to keep things going. That people enjoyed working with others outside their caucus is a positive. I suggest a big victory party no matter the vote totals. Victory for the very existence of the coalition. A beach is available three blocks from my house. Even Unity peoplr can come.

A tremendous level of  collaboration through various committees on just about everything while the individual caucuses continued to operate. There were bumps in putting so many different groups together - competition, political maneuvering, etc. Lots of meetings (most of which I avoided). The initial decision that all must agree - consensus can be a bitch but I've always maintained that consensus takes a long time but works out for the best in the end. The process took forever and probably led to delays in the campaign. If this ever happens again, the working relationships will be smoother. But that all depends on election outcomes. (More on that at the end of this series.)

For the first time people who didn't know each other or worked together have been doing so and seeming to love doing it. Win or not, some of these relationships forged will outlast the election. Despite some rough times getting things coordinated, I'd rate this a success. Even the wild west of lit distribution has had some organization with a spreadsheet we consult to see which schools are leafleted. 

Example: Last week I was walking to the subway and passed two high schools across the sreet from each other. I called one of the people I've been working with in MORE and she immediately checked and gave me the thumbs up to do them. I've been working very closely with this particular person and I just met her two months ago.

The tremendous growth of MORE by ten times over the past two years provides an army of in school contacts. I met up with one woman on the corner of my building on her way to a local school and handed her leaflets. The level of activity in getting out the votes will be major and I have no way of knowing how deep that work goes, but there are some good signs. 

Solidarity under the incredible leadership of Lydia Howrilka has shown enormous staying power and growth in terms of outreach, something I learned during petitioning and distribution. 

New Action has recovered from the 2019 disaster. They have very experienced leadership and a massive list of supporters, mostly retirees but also renewed signs of people in schools. Rising star and former Unity Nick Bacon deciding to join as co-leader and renewal of the NA blog with brilliant posts has been a difference maker.

ICE has fundamentally as a group worked with the other groups rather thaneparately but provides a consistent web site and a core of people who know the game. The Eterno clan is a force. Some of the newer people have identified themselves as ICE/Solidarity. I view ICE as the non-caucus - open to all, including people associated with Unity. We want to talk about issues and eat - rice pudding when available. Post election we want to meet and talk and eat and talk.

Retiree Advocate as a force

A 25 year old group. What is different this year? Retiree Advocate has become active in the election for the first time and consists of New Action, former MOREs and ICE and independents who became active over MulgrewCare. We demonstrated before UFC was even formed that this type of grouping can work together and be effective.

A year and a half ago we decided to make a big push in the 2021 Retiree chapter elections, recruited 130 people to run and captured 30% of the vote, almost double from the past - and this was just as people were finding out about MulgrewCare. The leadership of RA's committed band of activists over decades, plus some great U1T retirees who had never been active in the UFT before has inspired the in-service people from the different groups to work together by supporting the battle against MulgrewCare last spring with actions at the Delegate Assembly that continued this past year as RA demonstrated out side every DA.

Of course MulgrewCare fiasco deserves a bullet of its own. Coming soon #3.

And then there is the Educators of NYC network under Daniel Alicea who has been a force. That he voted for Unity just 3 years ago and has moved so far so fast is a bad sign for the union leadership. Which leads me to #2.

#2: Unity Caucus people splitting ballots or outright voting UFC 

In this election we hear from a small, skewed sample from a small poll of 4 Unity members:

One is voting UFC, two are splitting ballots, and one is undecided. These being friends may not be typical Unity - but these are Unity members, not just supporters, some with a full-time UFT and others with part-time jobs.

Way back a year ago we were hearing that inside Unity there was dissatisfaction with Mulgrew's leadership. He had shrunk the inner circle and was making decisions with a tight crew - and many of those decisions were cringe worthy.

Along with Daniel Alicea moving to oppo, Is Nick Bacon move from Unity to New Action a harbinger? From what I hear, Unity are very bothered by him and Daniel. They like to poach oppos and don't like the reverse.

I hear anecdotes from people with Unity connections. Mulgrew seems to be the issue and other than hardcore Unity, Camille seems to be liked.  But too few to make me feel there will be enough significant defections due to anti- Mulgrew feelings to make a crucial difference - unless the vote is close. Not being an optimist I take these numbers with a grain of salt. But these stories are the first time I've heard over many election cycles.

There is a difference this time -- some Unity members are splitting the ballot or voting for UFC. Enough to lose them the election? NO. But when added to other items in a close race it could make a difference. Mulgrew is very unpopular. Inside the core of the Unity machine preservation is primary. But on the fringes? Who knows.  Mulgrew himself deserves his own bullet as a difference maker. I expect Janella Hinds, HS VP candidate, to get many more votes than Mulgrew.

Yes, Mulgrew himself and his unpopularity is a difference from previous elections.

 

Coming next: 

Number of people activated, MulgrewCare, Mulgrew himself

UFT Election 2022 - High schools up for grabs, Split Ballots May Affect close votes, anti-Mulgrew sentiment even within Unity will increase splits

"I just can’t bring myself to vote for Unity - I can’t stand Mulgrew. He caves on everything." I asked will he vote ufc - he said “honestly I don’t know - but I just can’t go to mulgrew”... Anonynmous

Either this person splits the ballot or doesn't vote at all. A lost vote for Unity if nor necessarily a vote for UFC. Don't discount the Mulgrew factor. I saw a comment from a hard core Unity person who urges people to vote for Unity while recognizing the Mulgrew handicap -- paraphrasing: We know he's a liability. We'll take care of him inside the caucus. Is a post-election palace coup coming?

Sunday, April 10, 2022

 

In the next few days UFT members will be receiving in the mail a serious sized booklet listing all the candidates running in the election (Ballots must be in by May 9.) The easiest way to vote is to choose one of the two slates on the front page, tear it off, put it in the envelope labeled SECRET BALLOT and put that envelope in the other envelope.You'd be surprised how many people do not use the SECRET BALLOT envelope and just put their ballot in the mailing envelope. Does this invalidate your vote? Possibly. 

But what if you want to vote for people from both slates or don't want to vote for some people on either slate? That is known as a split ballot and requires picking through the entire booklet putting check boxes next to each name. Each caucus has 12 officers, 90 Ex Bd plus 6 candidates faux E4E labeled WECU running for Ex Bd at large, plus one independent. Unity has an additional 650 and UFC 300 AFT/NYSUT delegates. Machines do the counting, so any screwed up marks on these ballots cause problems and even invalidation. Some people check a slate and vote for individuals -- which can invalidate the entire ballot - though as a member of the UFT election committee I will argue to only use the slate and ignore the rest as some people get confused and think they have to also vote for their friends. In every election there are numerous invalidations. (We've seen some slate votes with both boxes checked -- invalid).

Slate voting - I say YES

I have always argued for slate voting only rather than going through the laundry list of thousands of names who are running in UFT elections. When not active in the opposition I split my ballot but then learned in election count observations just how few there were and how we reported only the slate votes since the relatively few split ballots were never enough to change the outcome. You'd find that the lowest totals for a candidate on Unity to the highest total varies by a few hundred votes. Same for the opposition. But this time those few hundred votes can turn an election. Can you imagine a split ex bd?

For instance, in last year's Retiree election, the slate vote for RA was less than 7K and for Unity around 16K. But within each group there was a different total for each candidate. For RA, the well-known Michael Shulman got the most votes - over 7K. My vote total was somewhere in the middle of the pack. It made no real difference, except for some egos. But what if the election were closer - say Unity and RA roughly split the vote at 50-50 -- then those individual splits would decide the election with a mixed group from Unity and RA. One strategy we used in this election was to run some well-known retirees for Ex bd at large - their names will appear on very ballot. I didn't make the cut and will only appear for Ex Bd on functional ballots. My chances are slim and none given Unity's bigg

In 2019, with me being so pissed at MORE and not thrilled with any caucus, I did split my ballot -  I had no dog in the race - I just re-read what I wrote then and made some interesting predictions. An eclectic group for sure: 5 for Solidarity, 4 for Unity, 3 for MORE.

Worth reading.

My (2019) UFT Election Choices: Duke Breaks Bracket, Ex-MORES In Play on Unity Slate - Yes, My Choices are Personnal

An eclectic group for sure:

5 for Solidarity, 4 for Unity, 3 for MORE

But this time I do have a dog in the race and am urging people not to split the ballot and vote UFC slate. For those continuing critics of MORE many have been won over by the broader coalition of UFC - including some people who had left ICE for being too left a decade ago.  Dislike of Mulgrew and Unity Caucus is a uniting force - even if temporary.

One story:

I ran into a CL and original MORE while leafleting a school last week - he recognized me even with my mask on - and said he was considering voting for Unity - which was an eye-opener. He introduced me to a colleague and I sold UFC to them - or tried. I explained the coalition and he listened - he has been so anti-Unity all these years -- but he was mad at UFC over the DA disruption issues - even if they are minor. The funny thing is he hasn't been very friendly to me over the past few years and I thought it was because I left MORE but it was the opposite - he was mad at MORE. I explained there are some great new people in MORE who have changed the chemistry.

In my April 2019 piece I cited above I asked this Post-election question:

Will New Action still be alive and can some alliance between them and Solidarity plus ICEers and other non-MOREs be put together as a serious bulwark against Unity?

Given the MORE anti-working with other caucuses and dim view of the UFT election at the time, I never expected MORE to join a coalition. So win-win. The question for this election is what happens to the UFC post election? That depends on outcomes. If they win some ex bd seats the hope is they work together at UFC instead of caucus focus. Chances? 50-50.

However, who listens to me? Not THE DOENUTS BLOG -- a friend who I have consulted with through the years, despite some rocky moments - after this election I hope we use the favored method of bonding - a beer in a bar.

Here are two posts on splitting the ballot

• First a presidential endorsement - Camille Eterno For President.
•  The Endorsements (Part1: the UFC) which will be followed by Part 2 where I predict Mike Schirtzer as the leading endosement for Ex Bd at large.

I agree on Schitzer

Why I support Mike Schirtzer - only if you split the vote he's a must but please don't

I can't vote for Mike since I am doing slate, but if I did split he would get my vote as the only semi-independent on the Unity slate. Mike won with MORE in 2016 and with Unity in 2019 - I couldn't vote for him then because I am not a high school teacher -- but this time he is running for at large -- which I supported him all the way when he proposed it to Unity. Mike has been helpful to the oppo people when we needed a voice on the ex bd without offending his Unity sponsors. And when he made his pitch to Unity leaders he was open about working with both Unity and UFC. When we pushed for electronic voting Mike was there for us.

By the way -- I think Unity wanted Mike to run for HS Ex Bd because he brings some votes - the former MORE I met above was very bothered that Mike wasn't running with UFC - so he has fans. Mike told me beforehand he would not accept a position on the Unity slate if he had to run against his friends. That Unity gave him an at large is a sign of respect.

So if you do split the ballot - Mike is a must. But please don't split the ballot.

Why more splits this year? Dislike of Mulgrew and Unity fatigue but no commitment to UFC yet.

Saying that, I think this year there will be an uptick in split ballots. In the vote count the one page slate votes are counted very quickly while the booklets have to be unstapled and run through machines and can take an entire day.

But lets imagine a close election - take the high schools. There are 7 candidates for each slate. If you look at the past as I reported last night -UFT Elections: Illuminating Stats from the past - 

You will see that total high school votes out of 20k are about 5K -- 25% return. And often roughly evenly split -- separated by a few hundred votes. Skipping the abnormal 2019 votes, you can see that MORE/NA won with about 2350 in 2016 and Solidarity running non slate still got about 250 -- total oppo around 2500. Unity got under 2200.

So start with those numbers as a HS base for each group. If UFC only holds onto that base and Unity goes up, the split ballots could make a difference. UFC would have to surge -- there was a time that New Action topped 3K with Unity almost hitting that number 20 years back. Imagine if both groups rouse their base and 6 or even 7K vote? All bets are off. My ideal -- Unity gets its base and UFC surges toward 3k and wins with over 60%of the vote in the high schools. Am I predicting that? Hell no. But based on the past HS elections over decades, if UFC loses HS it will be slim while the potential to win big is out there. Unity is running a heavy campaign and Janella is popular and should have been the presidential candidate and will probably be next time.

I will do more analysis in the coming days. I may be on another podcast talking about the election and was interviewed by a reporter who is pitching the story.

-------

Just for giggles: 

In my research I came across this 2017 post from a real life fiddler: Unity Fiddles While High Schools Unrepresented - Oct. 2017.

2016 UFT Elections: Winning the High Schools - Part 1

UFT Elections 2016 Historical Analysis: Winning the High Schools, Part 2 - The 2014 MORE Retreat

 

Reality Check - Handicapping the 2022 UFT Election: Part 2 - The Range of Possibilities

Let's face facts - If UFC were to win it all, it would be by a thin margin. And I'd bet my pension that Unity would protest and yell "Stop the steal." They are Republicans after all. Mitch Mulgrew.

In part 1 (Handicapping the 2022 UFT Election: Can United for Change Win? Part 1 - UFC Unique Coalition, Unity on the Attack, Will UFC Hold Together?) I talked about the UFC Coalition and how its every nature makes the oppo in this election different and also how the Unity campaign is different as an offset.  

I believe this election can range from slam dunk 80% win for Unity and nothing for UFC to a slim win for UFC, if not overall, then in certain divisions. Keys are turnout and GOTV efforts, both weak in the past. Retirees have the biggest turnout -- like 45% of the total voters, while working teachers are more like 25% or less. If both go up significantly it favors UFC. Unity knows that and will make GOTV claims but they really want low turnout. They actually brag that the 25% is actually great for union elections, ignoring that in Chicago, with in school  voting, they get 60% turnout. And don't forget -- they turned down all UFC attempts to use electronic voting. 

Let me recommend you read Jonathan Halabi with a realistic analysis of the possibilities in this election: The answer is “Mulgrew, Medicare, Pandemic”

Jon does a deep dive on the problems Unity and Mulgrew face, so go read it. His takeaway won't totally jive with mine, but here is his conclusion:

For people who follow elections, UFT elections are usually a snore. 12 officers, 95 executive board seats, 750 delegates, none of these are a contest. There is usually a tussle over the last 7 executive board seats. The high school seats. I held one of them for 11 years. But this year? At least those 7 seats in play, with a realistic chance for more, and an outside chance for the whole ball of wax. Observers and players alike are speculating about the margin. If Unity somehow loses votes from 2019 (83%), but stays at their 2016 level (76%), that will look like a huge victory for them. But I don’t think that is likely.

Will Unity lose some votes, or will they lose a lot of votes? Will they take a small hit but still sail in with 72%? If that happens, there’s no mandate for change. UFT members who want something different will be disappointed. Some Unity members among them. Of course UFC might win, and we should talk about that, a different day. But if the votes come out and Unity wins, but takes a big hit on the numbers – and that’s what I think will happen, will that send a clear message? Will Unity adjust some of its policies? Will they find a new leader?

I'd say anything over 70% for Unity is a win in the broader sense, even if UFC wins some Ex Bd seats -- especially as you go down Jon's list of Unity ills. If people ignore that in today's world, what would it take?

 

But if Unity gets into mid-60s or less, which would be an overwhelming win in normal elections, in the UFT that opens up real danger signs for Unity. UFC presents a real threat in the next election with a third or more votes and if it holds together (not a slam dunk there either - though any one caucus that thinks it should go it alone is committing suicide for the future of the opposition even if good for that individual caucus).

There are people in Unity who recognize that and this time, as Jon points out, Unity is taking this election very seriously - insiders tell me they expect to win it all - including the high schools. They are running a heavy campaign and let's not ignore that campaigns do work if done right. How they are playing out in the schools is something beyond me. 

And of course UFC is running a heavy, more far reaching campaign than I've seen - ever. Jonathan's view:

Broad Coalition: United for Change, the opposition coalition, is bigger and broader than anything we’ve seen in these last two decades. Maybe the coalitions is Unity’s biggest problem? You could make that argument. But I don’t think so. We had a pretty big coalition in 2016, and did win the high school division, but it wasn’t scary for Unity the way today is.

Jon goes on to address the issues that scare Unity but I think that this time doesn't compare to the 2016 coalition which was MORE/NA while Solidarity was out there very vocally even if not with slate status. And there was still some pushback against NAC which had been in coalition with Unity for a decade.

Plus the many new players who had never been involved before, some of them former Unity supporters.

The UFC coalition ranges from right of center to far left. 

 

Reminds me of the groups that have organized to run against tyrant Victor Orban in Hungry - they even are running a right winger for president. If Orban wins big is that a good sign for Unity? Orban vs Mulgrew for who has more control?

 

At least UFC didn't court the far right and has a well-supported Camille Eterno who appeals to many segments of the UFT. She was flyering in a school with a heavy Unity presence and got a great greetng from rank and file UFT members there.

Now you might read stories about the horrors of the MORE experience c. 2016-19 -- and they are not false. I experienced them first hand. So yes I was very wary of getting involved with MORE again -- especially with some people I knew all too well. 

 

But I found a new MORE - lots of new people. When I left there was a core of people who were active. I have found some wonderful people who I love to work with in this election and find myself in surprising agreement on a number of issues I had within MORE.

 

But I have a deeper understanding and so do many in MORE of the importance of coalitions. Remember - I and MORE broke over the ruining of the MORE/NA and potential Solidarity coalition in 2019 - it was my writing about that issue from some internal meetings that got me suspended -- the best thing that happened to me.

I can't tell you how many people who are center or even center left have told me they would never back a hard left group running against Unity -- and over the decades Unity has tried to brand the oppo as hard left but this year has had some problems, though some of their hacks have tried to make the UFC coalition look like a front group for MORE. 

 

That is the furthest from the truth. MORE certainly has the largest contingent and in the early stages of negotiations there was some concerns about balance, but despite some rough moments over candidates, things came together fairly well and all the groups have shown strength in various ways.

And I love how some people have emerged and how some have grown. Some serious talent in MORE, Solidarity (I brag all the time about how amazing Lydia has been) and New Action and Daniel Alicea with his outreach group.

I'm particularly proud of Retiree Advocate which has led a fight against Mulgrewcare and was instumental in bringing the UFC coalition together. Another sign of the failure of Mulrew who by his actions played a major role in the formation of UFC -- we can make him an honorary member.

I will dive deeper into the particulars of the election in Part 3-infinity where I will review the divisions and the potential outcomes for each.