Sunday, January 17, 2021

Putting Those 80% Pro-Trump Numbers context - They are far from a majority as his overall approval rating drops to 29%


On December 17, 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.

I know people are left scratching their heads over the poll numbers that show Trump retaining the support of 70-80% of Republicans even after Jan. 6. The impression is scary - that so many people are perfectly willing to support what happened. And it is scary but I'm trying to square those numbers with Trumps major drop in overall approval ratings from the mid-40s at election day to under 30% today. So let's dig down a bit.

Start with the 75 million who voted for Trump - still not a majority given Biden's 80 million. That's a scary number and most say they would vote for him again. But 75 million in a nation of 350 million is still a minority.

We can see that Republicans are not a majority - there are more Democrats and independents. So let's start with the 25% and then take 75% of that as support for Trump today. Roughly 20% of the population. Throw in some marginal support from some (weird) Dems and a bigger chunk of independents and you get to the roughly 30% of the population that still supports him - scary numbers for sure, and far from a fringe.

Now if Biden doesn't end up eating children from that pedophilia ring in the basement of the pizza parlor, a few of these people might come over from the qanon edge, though expect them to keep up the drumbeat. Some reality might seep through.

I think Dems should take the lies about election fraud to a serious level and actually do a breakdown of the charges and do public hearings to refute all of them. The true believers won't believe it but a portion might and chipping away at that base is crucial.

I also don't get the resistance to showing ID when you vote. I get the problems in that some people may not have an ID - so let's get everyone some ID. We need ID for so many things, why not take away their arguments for future elections? 

I'd urge another important move. Start organizing like they did in Georgia in every state with emphasis on battleground states. I bet North Carolina could have been won with such an organizing effort. And maybe Florida too. Ohio could be brought back in play. 

How is West Virginia with so many poor one of the strongest Trump states? I would say because the Dems screwed them over the past 40 years.

This won't happen unless the Dems move away from centrist neo-liberalism privatization - watch where they come out on schools - and don't be fooled by the "public charter" moniker - charters are privatization. Thus, Biden's claim he opposes private charters is bogus and cover for supporting them, along with the partners of privatizing using the testing regime.

And the same goes for healthcare which is mostly privatized, a major reason for the pandemic and vaccination chaos. If Dems make no moves to reverse this -- Obamacare is still orivatized medicine - start worrying about the 2022 midterms when Republicans can win the House and Senate - and immediatly impeach Biden for picking his nose in public.

Oh, and unions, unions, unions. Their fundamental demise has been a major - if not THE major - factor in the growth of the Trumpism. So a key element for Dems is to push back against their anti-union corporate wing and push major support for unions that cannot be undone. And do it in the first two years. Believe me this will get them further than fighting unwinnable battles to make Washington DC a state.

Fight battle that are winnable.


2 comments:

  1. I like this piece overall, Norm - but in an era in which Republicans are grabbing and holding power any way they can, giving in to universal voter ID laws would be a mistake. In Republican-controlled states, such as Alabama, we see states closing DMV's - allowing as few as one per county - so that it's as difficult as possible for many poor people (especially poor urban Blacks) to get the ID's. We also see laws that prohibit college students' using student ID's for no good reason.

    The trend, among Republican legislatures, is to mandate voter ID's and to simultaneously make it as hard as possible for people to get these ID's.

    Why? Because their argument about voter ID's is entirely in bad faith. They don't want people to have ID's to vote. They want to suppress the vote.

    (And they don't actually care about voter fraud because they are smart enough to know that the problem is virtually non-existent.)

    I could maybe - maybe - see allowing universal voter ID laws in exchange for a raft of laws that make it much easier to acquire ID's and vote.

    But that's not a realistic possibility. We need to think structurally, and in terms of political power. Don't give the other side something for nothing - especially when doing so will effectively disenfranchise people who aren't committing voter fraud in the first place.

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  2. Erik
    I agree about intentions but also think we can make sure to avoid pitfalls especially by using voter reg as an opportunity to also register for a photo id. And use state Dem parry to assist instead of opposing. Sigs create too many issues. But we could also try for online systems like I think Estonia.

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