The level of upset amongst the world of opp over two slates is over the top. Calm down folks.
How one non-Unity slate can still win in a 3-way race.
A few key takeaways up front:
- I've maintained the only way to win this election with the prospects of building dynamic change into the UFT is by enlisting large numbers of working UFTers. Do not rely on retirees to win and dominate a fossilized union (yes I am one of these fossils.) The current configuration of the legacy caucuses unfortunately leads us in this direction.
- The 63% retiree vote that the legacy caucuses are relying to deliver will not hold up for this election. In the 2022 UFT general election retirees won 29% -the same number they did in the 2021 RTC election. In the latter election word was out about the medicare situation - my biggest disappointment in that election was not seeing the retiree vote expand. That we didn't increase the retiree vote from the year before when few knew about the health plan changes. That led to me being pessimistic for the June election. I was wrong. We ran a great campaign but the difference maker: Marianne. Where will she land in this election and if she doesn't get her people involved the retiree vote will drop significantly.
- Unity still won over 10k in the 2024 chapter loss. Expect that to hold and grow as Unity supporters may have turned on Tom Murphy as RTC leader but may not be willing to turn over the entire union to what will clearly be labeled a left-wing opposition run by legacy caucuses that they have fought for years. RA did not have a bad rep a year ago.
- ABC is the non-ideological, non-sectarian option with people from every caucus, including Unity, so Unity retirees who know the score may go ABC, but not with a slate dominated with MORE candidates.
- The numbers from the UFC full frontal coalition vote in 2022 were not much different from the smaller MORE/NAC coalition in 2016. Why would this election be any different from the in-service vote (Mah Nishtanah), especially since what was UFC is diminished? Given the 2022 vote and reduced caucus coalitions, I maintain Unity would win the election if we were limited to a coalition run similar to UFC, which the legacy caucuses not even reaching the same levels of organizing that UFC had reached.
- Oh, but what about the retiree and para votes from last spring? They
are not automatic and must be worked for. Fix Para Pay is aligned at
this point with ABC. So Don't forget the 27k para potential vote. The in-service para vote, with 27k paras, long ignored by the opposition, may prove more crucial than the retiree vote if we get turnout. Note: A key organizing strategy is taking direct aim at this vote with a plan to fight for para pay instead of the Unity policy of telling them to be happy they have a job.
- ABC with a drastic new approach to not just running in the election but open to taking the election-building process out from behind closed doors and get more rank and file involved - and it has been working. Sample: 100 showed for a zoom for paras and district 75 on Tuesday, and over 50 for a High School zoom Wednesday, including chapter leaders from large high schools, including some key people from Unity.That followed a general meeting with 260 people. Think each in-service having some kind of network outreach in their schools. ABC is building the broadest coalition and still invites all legacy caucus members and supporters to run on the ABC independent slate with no labels. Already some have signed up to run. Is it enough yet? No. But there's a long way to go before ballots go out in May and petitioning starting Feb. 12. And ABC has the petition king: ME.
- Almost 40% of Trump supporters in NYS are in a union and many of them in the UFT and also anti-Mulgrew. Many have been non-voters in the past. With an ABC option that is focused on bread and butter and without a leftist ideology reputation, they may vote. Some will say how dare you hope Trump supporters vote for you? How dare I run to win.
Saturday, December 21 - The shortest day of the year, starting tomorrow the days grow longer
Something to look forward to.
Did I tire you out yet with my key takeaways? Here's some more analysis.
June joy in oppo Mudville turns to fall blues as Mulgrew offers teeth and eyes, soon to be followed by feet (every member gets a silver sneaker once a year.)
After the para and retiree elections plus the TRS election (UFT's 3 Consequential Elections) showed gaping holes in the Unity Caucus machine, two things happened.
Enormous excitement and hope amongst the anti-Unity forces and fear and despair and rending of garments and gnashing of teeth in the halls of UFT/Unity.
LeRoy Barr at a UFT staff meeting while they were in Houston at the AFT convention in July warned them that the oppo was coming for their jobs and Unity went into full gear by the end of the summer with a full-court blitz to defend itself by word salad changes in their positions on Medicare, getting better dental, and sending their troops into the schools (not always to their advantage). And it just may be working to some extent. We insiders may LOL, but to the masses in the rank and file who think a caucus is some kind of rash (and they may be right), some of this blitz registers.
Then came the opposition which is, and always has been, a contorted mess. From enormous excitement in June and August, we have seen a split in what began back in March with a unified view of the 3 caucuses and ABC, and ended in October. I will go into the timeline and details at another time.
So, now the fear, despair and rending of garments and gnashing of teeth has infected the oppo and Unity forces are perking up, though some Unity staff have noticed the budding excitement and have reached out asking about what will happen to their jobs.
Even at Tuesday's final RTC meeting of the year, a few retirees who I didn't even know stopped by to say they are big Ed Notes and Arthur readers and were very worried about a two oppo slate. I was even called by a friend and current MORE member asking if there was anything he could do to help heal the breach. My response was long (of course) and complicated and had to include the history going back to March and through October to understand the current situation. I keep getting called out on my insistence of showing background history- that I should focus on today, but context and history count. You can't grow a plant if there are no roots.
Is there a way forward to running one united slate? I tend to say no at this point and will proceed in this analysis to my theory of how the only slate than can win is ABC, even if it might seem far-fetched.
So let me start with some history, of course.
The 2022 UFC coalition failures -
United for Change was a milestone in UFT history as every oppo group joined in and we ran 400 people, a massive undertaking that included, RA, MORE, NAC, ICE, Solidarity, EONYC, OT/PT and some independents.
UFC's main success was the increased % for UFC but that was due to Unity drops which did not go to UFC. That dropped Unity vote just might shift into the ABC column due to the Unity presence in ABC. UFC did not bump up the in-service vote or even the retiree vote in that election.
Look at the charts Jonathan posted and note the key turnout numbers for in-service compared to retirees:
I contend that with a weakened UFC, these numbers will remain constant for the caucus coalition, with the only wild cards retirees. The only way to win is to go after the 80% who don't usually vote, not an easy task but that looks like the major initiative of ABC and to siphon off Unity votes.
In a follow-up I will explore this issue with a forensic analysis and breakdown of strengths and weaknesses of the caucuses and what they have done so far with further analysis of how ABC can win a two slate race.
In my conversations with progressives over this election, their response is to tell me this goal of reaching deep into the schools is wishful thinking -- that people are too busy and overworked to care. I guess being in the schools they know about the apathy but they seem to have given up on breaking through. I still have faith and confidence.
I get being excited by the retiree win and the opportunity it offers. How ironic that the usual suspects in the oppo who have opposed the influence retirees had in UFT elections when they were pro-Unity have now seemingly shifted positions and want to win with the retiree vote.
I end with an big OY! See next post for the VEY!
And don't forget if you are a retiree, Join the ABC zoom:
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