All these states are right to work (RTW) states where teachers are not required to pay union dues even when the unions negotiate their contracts and offer other services. Thus, union membership is low and the unions are relatively weak compared to non RTW states like New York, where the unions have such control over the members, they can put a damper on the type of actions taking place in the red states, where teacher militancy has often been led by teachers in the classroom who have acted independently of the union leaders. It is my contention this can never happen here in NYC due to the extensive control the Unity Caucus party that has run the UFT since its inception almost 60 years ago. I can remember only one time where a revolt from the classrooms forced the UFT to take strike action. That was in 1975 in the massive budget crisis. As UFT leader Al Shanker did not really believe in the strike, the outcome was not very good and 15,000 people were laid off and we were fined 2 for 1 through Taylor Law penalties and the UFT itself lost dues check off privileges for a period of time, which means the city doesn’t take dues out of the paycheck. That is a severe penalty and that threat alone often keeps unions in line.
If it comes about, will a weakened UFT lead to more militancy from below and lead to wildcat actions like a blue flu? I’m betting NO, unless conditions here mirror red states. And that will take a long time in coming.