http://www.eiaonline.com/intercepts/2018/04/11/where-will-the-effects-of-a-janus-ruling-fall-fastest-and-hardest/Antonucci at EIA and LA Report
Over most of California, the loss of agency fees will have only a small immediate effect on teacher unions. But in some areas and in some job categories the loss of revenue will be dramatic.
Unions keep details about the numbers and location of their fee-payers close to the vest, but I have those details for the California Teachers Association. For K-12 teachers and in almost all regions of the state, the number of fee-payers is small, ranging from 2 to 5 percent.There are two key cities where the percentage is much higher —
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Fee-payers comprise about 11.8 percent of the United Teachers Los Angeles bargaining unit, 8.2% for San Diego Education Association
That's a pretty high number for LA before Janus. And there are reports the union may be pushing for a strike. That might keep more people paying - or the opp
But in the red states many strikers are not paying union dues though I haven't seen numbers. So when the stuff hits the fan it may not make a difference in some ways. But in others where the union leaderships are weakened figuring out outcomes is a chess game. Do weaker union make it easier for rising wildcat actions? Will those looking to spark red state actions in strong union states see a sunny side of the street? Or will a weakening lead to an even further deadening of the members?
It is never about how good things should be but about how bad things are getting.