Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Iowa Results Not so Positive for Bernie, Romney for Dem Candidate for Pres, KOD for Joe: Mulgrew Goes Biden, Could UFT Back Bloomberg?

I see trouble for Bernie and the Bernie or bust folks in the Iowa results, but I'll get to that in a moment.

Is Mulgrew the Kiss of Death for Biden?
The NY Post had a piece about Mulgrew running personally, not as UFT president, as a Biden delegate, which with the UFT leadership record on endorsements pretty much doomed Biden in Iowa and the rest of the campaign. James Eterno has some comments on the ICE blog (try not to read some of the comments on a full stomach.) But let's also note this quote:
Biden is getting a big assist from the Cuomo-led NYS Democratic Party. Cuomo is a Biden booster — though the governor hasn’t officially endorsed him after the ex-veep stumbled through early debates.
Yeah, UFT for Cuomo in 2024.

Joel Klein for Ed Secretary?
Now the word out of UFT/AFT sources was that Randi favored Warren but as Warren has dropped I can see the mercurial Randi looking elsewhere. But what's left to choose when Bernie is off the list? Here comes our old friend Bloomie who I read consulted with Randi when he was deciding to run. I have rarely heard one positive thing said about Bloomberg by a NYC teacher who worked in the schools. Many of the issues you are reading about concerning the schools, from grade inflation, to abusive principals to discipline chaos to tenure issues can be laid at Bloomberg's feet and his henchmen, Joel Klein and Dennis Walcott with a Cathy Black tossed in the middle for 6 weeks.

Bloomberg is even more anti-union, anti-teacher and anti-public schools than Obama and probably Trump. He is also a dictator and could be worse than Trump for democracy because he would be more competent than Trump in control and unlike Trump would use his money to buy off anyone. Bloomberg also uses fear but add money to that and he is really dangerous.

Randi will have a hard time selling him even to those Unity Caucus loyalists but I bet she can.

Romney joins John Bolton as a new hero of the increasingly pathetic Democratic Party. But why not have another millionaire like Romney join Bloomberg and enter the race for Democratic nominee to run against Trump? He can join the many centrist Dem candidates in defending Romney - er - Obama care  - which was the Romney/Republican health care alternative pre-Obama and the insanity of the Republican Party.

How Bernie and the Left may have taken a hit in Iowa
It's 9PM and 92% of votes are in and Bernie leads by 5000, 24 to 22%  in popular vote on round 1 but less than 2000 on round 2 where other second choices go to the candidates, but Pete leads in delegates by 1% point and that is how they determine an official winner.

This is a farce where Dems who complained about Hillary winning the popular vote and bitch about the electoral college have the same system in their primary. I just saw a video of Pete talking about the 2016 election and saying that elections should be determined by the popular vote -- except when he is the one who benefits. At any rate, they fundamentally tie, just like Hillary and Bernie fundamentally tied in the 2016 Iowa caucus.

I love reading the pro-Bernie left wing do the spin instead of the analysis. One thing about socialists - they are always optimists about the coming revolution - you have to be after 150 years. On the left, The Nation is OK with Warren or Bernie while on the further left - Jacobin - it is only Bernie. I subscribe to both but at this second I lean toward The Nation.

Now Bernie has built his electability argument on getting people out to vote - which fundamentally he didn't do in Iowa where the turnout was the same as in 2016 and way below 2008.

Last time Bernie got 50% of the vote against Hillary and this time about half that. So let's assume that last time a whole batch of his votes were anti-Clinton as much as pro-Bernie, which would explain the drop-off plus the many alternatives the voters had.

But let's divide the voters into centrists and progressives. Pete, Biden and Klobuchar together got over half the vote, which sends a signal of sorts.

If you add Bernie and Warren together as the Progressive wing, you get about 45%. But Houston, there is a problem for the left.

The left Bernie or bust people have been slamming Warren for being a slightly more progressive version of Pete or Biden or Klobuchar. After all she loves capitalism but wants to reform it.

So if you move Warren out of the progressive camp and into the category the left Bernie people love to put her in, then her numbers go into the Pete, Amy, Joe column and the win for the center wing is overwhelmingly closer to 75%.

I'm dying to see how the Bust people spin the outcomes this time and in the future.


4 comments:

  1. But Norm, you assume that nation has the same demographics as Iowa. Iowa is lilly White. Bernie is the strongest with people of color. It's one reason why Iowa should not go first, as its population doesn't represent the nation. You are way premature in your conclusions based on Iowa.

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  2. John
    Bernie won 50% last time and lost half of that in Iowa plus didn’t pull out more turnout. Warning signs b

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  3. Bloomberg is the best representation of what America is about .

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  4. I am still waiting for the rest of my 2009-2010 paycheck. No thank you on Bloomberg who gave my neighborhood away to RE developers and destroyed some large fine old high schools in my borough. He treats the citizenry like a cash purchase...I am not for sale!

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