The Membership Assembly is having ripples at my school. One of our delegates and I were recapping it for people at lunch. They want to know more.
John Q. Teacher: I, and the other teachers at my school are confused about this. Are these meetings going to be used to organize a group of people to run in the upcoming election against Unity? "Making our voices heard" is nice and all, but is completely meaningless unless there is an organized group to run in the election. If Unity runs unopposed, they won't give a rats a** about a bunch of folks making demands.Anon: Where are the caucuses? This seems ok but it's kind of worrying that none of the groups that I expect to see are represented here... is this group trying to be a spoiler? are they all gonna work together? what's going on???
Monday, Nov. 4, 2024
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| Will UFT Dormant Membership Arise? |
These comments above were in response to the Urgent Call to Action: RSVP for the UFT Members October Assembly which had almost 300 registrants and about 150 attending. One chapter leader came up with the lame excuse he had free tickets to the Yankee World Series game. No excuse. He could have zoomed from the Stadium. And they lost anyway.
My quick response:
Caucuses have been involved in some way - they have a process for making decisions - this group includes people from the caucuses but are a bit more impatient to get moving and not bogged down in caucus bureaucracy and also want to be more open to new voices and not only rely on the usual suspects. This is not a spoiler group. It only makes sense to run one slate against Unity or not run at all. What if there is no juice out there? Comments on blogs won't do. Needed are real bodies in the schools. Come on down.
I've talked about the state of oppo UFT caucuses in the past: UFT Resistance Caucuses: We Need Them, But Why Not One Big ten
I've been a critic of the way most UFT caucuses operated even when I was in them, some of which I helped found. I tried to see beyond the often narrow confines of a caucus, with their rules and structures, which often (and still does) drive colleagues crazy. That is why I was most comfortable in the more free-flowing ICE, which I and James Eterno sort of ran (I drove him crazy too). But let's face it, there can be no organized resistance to Unity Caucus without caucuses, so love 'em or leave 'em, we need 'em. In fact in today's UFT world, the more caucuses the merrier.
So
what about the caucuses and the role they would play in a UFT election?
I'm sure those caucuses that choose to run (not every caucus seems enthusiastic) will play a role.
Who are these people? Many are the usual suspects though in different configurations. Sorry, you have to wade through a whole lot of
preliminary crap in order to get the full context in follow-up blogs. I understand the confusion, so let me try to clear a few things up, though there are still things I can't talk about -- you'll have to read the book.
Where Are the caucuses? the 1%
Ask the people you work with to identify UFT Caucuses - even Unity and see what they say. Ten percent might be able to give a cogent response -- actually more like 1%.
Let me state right up front. I'm in no way opposed to caucuses being involved in this election. I am opposed to any plan for the 3 self-identified major oppo caucuses meeting behind the curtain for months and deciding on the platform, the candidates and the format of the campaign - the 6 men (and maybe a few women) in the room, and then sometime in January springing it on UFT members, going into 6 weeks of petitioning mode, then a few months of stuffing mailboxes (with little effect) and in May begging people to vote - which mostly they don't. Oh, the yawn!
In order to avoid caucus bureaucracies why not try something else?
Gather a group of interested parties, hopefully with people from the
caucuses, and start talking. Which is exactly what has been happening
over the past past few months. Informal, ad hoc, open to people through the network. And over the past few weeks, that group has been expanding. And that has led to some of the most invigorating discussions I've seen in the UFT in some time. And I say this with some trepidation: Ex-Unity people have brought a lot to the table in terms of knowledge and analysis. And how little most of them know about the traditional oppo. I think the Unity people thought of oppo as a blob - they didn't distinguish the various components. Boy are they learning fast.
So why am I, who followed that model for election after election, now pushing back? One reason is that each caucus has its own procedures for making decisions. So imagine every major decision going back to some steering committee, or if not that, a tiny group of decisions makers at the caucus level and then going back to the election steering group to hash things out. Go watch grass grow.
A tiny group of decision makers (and I admit to being one at times) leaves out the 99% of working UFT members who wake up one day to find a slate - or two - or 3 - running against Unity. I could live with this process if it actually had some success in the past. But as one deeply involved in elections, the turnout and votes for the oppo proves my point. Look at this chart below and how few in service people voted, especially in the 2022 election when all the 7 or 8 oppo united for the first time to force the first clear opp vs Unity face-off in decades. I went in expecting all these groups to pull people out in their schools and reach deeper into the 99%.
It didn't happen.
No signs of a ground game -- except for James Eterno whose Queens network pulled hundreds of HS votes for UFC.
The results in terms of oppo votes were mostly the same as in 2016 when the oppo was much weaker. Sure UFC gained in % because Unity lost support, support that did not flow to the oppo, which if there was a real ground game, should have.
Look at these numbers and compare to 2004 - other than retirees of course. Some of the discrepancies are due to D. 75 teachers being unfairly lumped into functional instead of their school chapter so they don't get counted for elem, ms and hs. Also the lower ms due to k-8 being elem and 6--12 as hs. Also note that from 2004 to 2022 there are 40k more UFT members while turnout dropped on all levels.
Let's face it. No matter how many caucuses there are out there, the biggest one is over 70% non-voting DGAC- Don't Give a Crap. Let's take the 30 year RA out of it because we are no longer in the schools. NAC is 30 years old, MORE is 13 years old and has actually shrunk in size over the past 2 years while NAC has grown a bit, some from those leaving MORE. ICE has become a minor player though we can play a role, as has Solidarity, which is still in business. Is the oppo stronger or weaker today than in 2022? (I will delve into this issue in a follow-up).
An election run solely by the caucuses had been a proven failure with "success" being electing the 7 HS Ex Bd out of the 102 members. After attending exec bd meetings after our "big win" in 2022 and seeing the energy drained from the oppo voices, this model has serious flaws unless infused with new people and new energy.
Let's win with the retiree vote is a dead end strategy
Now admittedly, things have changed since the June chapter and TRS elections (UFT's 3 Consequential Elections), offering people hope that the entire Unity machine can be defeated.
But there is a fallacy in relying on the retiree vote to carry the day even if the DGAC numbers don't change much. If everything is equal and the retiree vote is the same as in June (not a sure bet), an oppo group might just eke out a win even with a lack of fundamental support in the schools. That thought seems to be driving some of the thinking in the oppo. And our leadership in Unity seems to actually be buying this argument and is running so scared they are actually making a lame attempt to service the members with school visits and love letters from Mulgrew. You might even notice improvements in healthcare --- score one for the oppo.
Let me blow a further hole in that thinking. RA won 63% based on Medicare, which Mulgrew is in a full scare propaganda blitz claiming he agrees. Will it work with most? No. But it might with some Unity people who deserted in the election and won't vote oppo in a general election that would make Unity lose control of the union. Expect some Unity votes to come home.
Also interest in this election by the new voters RA gained - expect some loses there.
Let me blow a further hole in that thinking. RA won 63% based on Medicare, which Mulgrew is in a full scare propaganda blitz claiming he agrees. Will it work with most? No. But it might with some Unity people who deserted in the election and won't vote oppo in a general election that would make Unity lose control of the union. Expect some Unity votes to come home.
Also interest in this election by the new voters RA gained - expect some loses there.
And how much support does Marianne lends to this effort and activate her network of UFT retirees, a significant factor in the RA win.
Yes, I think we can win by holding some line in the retiree vote - and don't forget the para vote (though very low turnout usually) IF we get a significant growth in turnout in the HS, MS and Elem schools. And for that we need to REACH into the schools.
A new paradigm is needed to win the 2025 election
Are people out there who want to be involved in the UFT elections other than "just give us your vote"? People who could participate from the earliest days of a campaign? Imagine choosing candidates in an open forum instead of a back room. Sometimes I'm shocked at how little the union leadership AND the oppo leaders mistrust the membership.
If the apathy is the same, the winning caucus is Don't Give a Crap. And Unity.
So, some people have advocated a different kind of election. Sure the caucuses need to be involved, but we need to get at least a portion of the former unreachable 99% involved in the election process from the very beginning of the campaign. Open up the process and let the sunlight in.
A campaign based on individuals - most of them from the caucuses of course - and inclusive of those who are in or recently left Unity plus ICE, Solidarity and independents.
A melting pot that would be inclusive, not exclusive of a broader based UFT membership than we've seen before. Of course the conundrum here is what if we issue a call and no one answers? The DGAC caucus wins again.
There is actually such a group of people in a nascent stage of organizing who have been meeting and were behind the survey and the membership meeting. And so have the caucuses with communication between them.
Coming next: How we got here and where we may be going. And avoiding a horror show.
I'm glad Halloween is over.
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