No Red Wave and Dismal Election Results Didn't Happen But Dems should not be Celebrating Averting a Disaster

Still waiting for you to admit how wrong you were on some many counts here, Norm, from completely missing the importance of the abortion issue as an old white guy and how important the democracy issue was to missing how well Democrats outside of NY State would do. If it were not for Sean Patrick Maloney and Co., we would have held the House, which hasn't happened since the 1960s Democrats in mid-terms, much less with all of the fundamentals -- galloping inflation, unpopular president -- going the wrong way.  ...comment on What's Wrong with the Democrats as Disaster Looms for Climate, democracy, the economy, and yes, crime

A quick note for those into the health care issue:   Sunday Nov. 13 - 7PM - A Town Hall sponsored by MORE Join other union members deeply concerned about @UFTleadership’s healthcare givebacks! Retirees and Active members- we are all in this together.

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Saturday - Nov. 12 - I started this Wednesday so excuse the scattered thoughts. 

I cancelled my move to Portugal or Canada - temporarily.  

Did the Dems learn anything on messaging from what went right or wrong?

I fear they will spend a lot of time working their shoulder joints out of whack from patting themselves on the back. If there had been a red wave they would have blamed the progressives of course. But progressives didn't have a bad election.

The Squad gained a few new members. A guy in Texas and Summer Lee in Pittsburgh who beat back millions from the Israeli lobby in both the primary and general election - they loves to go after progressive black women as they did with Nina Turner. Of course Sean Patrick Maloney attacked AOC after the election over her criticisms of the NY Party.

I have loads of links for follow-ups but here is one that just came in:

• Working People’s Issues Won On Election Night - A Socialist Sweep In The Twin Cities

With the crime issue on top, a number of progressive reformers still won. You don't get those reports on main media -- which is why I'm addicted to mainstream and alt left media.

 

How about the student debt issue as there was a bigger turnout than expected from the youth vote? Dems hid from this issue fearing old folk outrage but a targeted appeal to youth about the threat by Republicans might have spurred even a bigger turnout. And then there's the marijuana issue too. Both issues buried.

 

New York state was a disaster despite Hochul win -- but her poor campaign really dragged people down and made Zeldin a hero in Republican circles. If it comes down to one vote in the House, blame Sean Patrick Maloney. If it's two or more I'm happy he lost.
 

Jonathan has good analysis on the NY State races: 

• Votes for Congress in New York State 2022
• What Happened to Hochul’s Vote?

Locally in Rockaway

 There is a lot of corruption in the Dem party here. My local Dem Assemblywoman Stacy Pfeffer Amato may have lost to a POS Republican slug in a close race. My neighborhood went 75-90% for Zeldin which was why I panicked. I had nothing against Stacy - I voted for her and straight Dem but I should point out she took over from her mother -- that seat was in the hands of her family for probably 40 years. And when her mom gave it up she became the head of some patronage Queens job. And Joe Addabo also won - he took over from his father. Is something wrong when we have a sort of monarchy? But despite not liking Greg Meeks, he beat my super POS Paul King (who is head of my Property Owners Assoc) 75-25. And don't forget - my city councilwoman is a right wing Republican (you no longer can separate them - all Republicans are hard right). I'm supposed to call her to get her to be with us on the Medicare issue. 

My old paper, The Wave, gave the right wing enormous space. They dumped me years ago when new right wing ownership took over - I was the only progressive voice there. But do I miss not having to hit a deadline every week?

I ran in my post with the "it's the economy stupid argument, not just abortion" but it seems there was a silent last minute Dem surge. Maybe the economy is not as bad given the under 4% unemployment rate, a far cry from the 10% Obama faced in 2010.

One thing about inflation -- for 40 years we had no inflation due to shifting high paying middle class jobs out of this country by outsourcing. As we bring jobs back, we ain't paying people a dollar an hour. So you can't have more jobs here and no higher inflation. Accept that. The complaints that Biden overspent on handing people money they spend on stuff is over the top. Every country has inflation except a few. Supply chain, higher wages, greedy corps. Some of this message seemed to register in the last ten days.

And abortion did keep driving the engine according to pundits. I think the threat just woke up enough people to make a difference. Panic like mine set in over the past 10 days and Dems did enough tinkering and scare morning. Inflation not as big as people thought -- one theory - Inflation is due in part to higher wages, especially for the lower paid workers -- so maybe some workers came home to Dems.

I admit I was wrong in my assessment. I was panicked by the polls. But think of how close almost every election was - except for DeSantis in Florida where he is the new king. No one is talking about how awful his opponent was and how scerotic the Florida Dem Party is. Val Demmings? She ran with a right wing Dem agenda. As did Ryan in Ohio - I admit I was pretty wrong on him. I was buying the Morning Joe hype about his great campaign -- the left analysis is that running from the right only works in a few cases. Fetterman didn't shy away from a working class argument and won higher totals in rural areas. The stroke might have gained him some votes.

Actually, there was a shift in the last week or ten days as Dems began to broaden the message from just abortion  and address crime and the economy. So while the massive turnout has been attributed to the abortion issue, I also made the point they can't only focus on that.

I've been slow to respond because I have been listening to so many podcasts - Krystal on Breaking Points (live show in NYC Dec. 6), Sam and Emma on Majority Report, Ryan Grim on Intercepts, David Sirota on The Lever ---- I have tabs open for all of them as I haven't gone through them but will put up a follow up.

I went into the city Tuesday night for dinner with a friend so I wasn't in Rockaway and able to totally monitor election results but I did have access to some services and tried to keep up. I watched TV, flipping channels - while also watching live feeds on my phone and ipad from Sam at MR and Krystal and Kyle and Sagaar followed by Ryan and Emily--- quadruple tasking. I still have a big backlog to review.

I woke up at 4 AM Wednesday, hit the gym at 5:30AM and hunkered down.

Doom and gloom didn't come as I expected. But Dems can and probably will still lose the House. But the margin looks so slim it might actually work out for them. Let the Republicans play crazy with investigations and get nothing done other than destruction.

I still think that the number of close elections is scary. Just a nudge here and there and we could have lost the Senate too. Maybe still can if Nevada goes bad and Georgia too. So counting no chickens. 

Biden numbers should go up - I predict high 40s soon.

A win for Biden. This election makes him more likely to run again - one of the benefits of a red wave would have been a decision not to run. Watch his poll numbers go up as Dems start coming home. A deranged Trump announcement will help - though DeSantis is actually more scary - Victor Orban in white boots.

I watched the celebration on Morning Joe and it seemed obscene. They saw the night as a big loss for Trump and were almost celebrating the DeSantis big win. It shows you Dem Party mindset -- oh what a relief if we get "normal Republican" Desantis as President.

It's amazing how they can't stop talking about Trump. They say it was a massive loss for Trump -- but how about the Vance win? Notice they leave that out. I think the blame Trump arguement is media hype but so happy it drives him nuts. The comment about Virginia Gov Yung Kim sounding Chinese is one of his more unhinged.

And by the way -- the big Asian shift to Republicans in NYC is also unhinged as the attacks on them emanated from Republicans. I know a Trumpy who at ever mention of Covid says - "The China Virus."

I wanted Tim Ryan to be closer but it is clear that Ohio and Florida are fundamentally gone for Dems and getting redder. The Morning Joe crowd said they should not be stupid and toss money in those states. But then there's Sharrod Brown, who might be an ideal Pres 2024 candidate. 

The Dems didn't for Ryan but they did for Christ and Demmings -- I hear 70 million on lost causes - smart spending could have won the House. The way Dem Central make these decisions is part of why the Party is so often in trouble -- like spending 40 mil in Kentucky in 2020 for a horrible candidate and also in South Carolina to oppose Graham. No sechel.

Right now the Senate hinges on Nevada - if she loses don't count chickens in Georgia when the entire nation will be focused on it.

What is clear, is that Republican sprinkle was not a mandate to engage in war and if they try with endless impeachments and investigations it will cause them harm in 2024. 

What's Wrong with the Democrats as Disaster Looms for Climate, democracy, the economy, and yes, crime

I took a short drive to the hardware store yesterday. A few blocks into my trip there was a man and a woman on each corner waving big Zeldin and other local Republican banners at the cars going by. My neighborhood is flooded with Republican signs. i saw one Dem sign. This is still NYC. I see big Republican enthusiasm and none for Dems. The Iceberg is looming - deck chairs, anyone?

I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat....Will Rogers

Zeldin is poised to perform better than any New York Republican in decades. His lawn signs are everywhere and Hochul’s are nowhere. The first presidential campaign I ever covered was 2016, and there are unsettling parallels between this race and Trump v. Clinton, how one base was clearly more enthused than the other, how airy and detached Democrats sometimes seemed from all of it.  .. Ross Barkan

Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022 - Day of the Dead

The Mood of Democrats today

With a tornado about to hit Dems expect even more disorganization. As leftie Dem I have a lot of issues, contrary to Republican screams about socialism, the center right very anti-left forces that control the party. Dems pine for the old Republican Party they worked so well with because fundamentally, most elected Dems come from the same place politically as the old Rockefeller Republicans. Dems may suck in many ways but Rep triple suck. Name one solution Rep have for any of the problems.

On the other hand, Dems and Reps solution to inflation is the Fed raising rates and driving people out of work and thus lowering wage demand -- yes, make the workers pay but left corps off the hook.

Corp Dem Mulgrew tries to be Joe Namath and sell us on Medicare Avantage - UFT should have hired Namath

Let me point out right up front that as a left critic of our own center right Dems who control the UFT, nothing strikes me as more Republican/Right center Dem than Mulgrew's attempt to force us out of the public option known as Medicare and into a privately managed system of Medicare Advantage. Think of the mentality of national Dems and Unity Caucus just in regards to the healthcare issue. Mulgrew accepts that costs will rise drastically even if due to profit making, high exec salaries, high advertising costs - Joe Namath ads, etc. Mulgrew, instead of standing up for us and calling out this profit making, does a selling job for them - he's the Joe Namath of the MLC.

• Unity Caucus is the epitome of Dem Party Central an echo on policy which is why they talk Medicare for All but never act on it
  

Diane Ravitch has post after post pointing out why we must vote Dem - I agree - she also has this: Connecticut: The Biggest Charter Scandal Of All Time. Connecticut is a Dem state. For many of us on the left Dems are the only option but we don't vote with the enthusiasm shown by the right. That suppresses voter turnout. There are Zeldin lawn signs all over my Rockaway neighborhood - along with the other Republican local slugs running. Same on Long Island. One brave soul on my block put up a Greg Meeks lawn sign. Dems don't seem to believe in lawn signs.

I heard a story of a teacher who is left wing but worried about election and was making calls for Hochul -- she said the entire operation was disorganized as per Will Rogers. Dems are massively disorganized, especially on message but also at the state levels. Florida Dem party is a disaster, turning a swing state red. Fuckn Charlie Christ?

Sean Patrick Maloney has been endemic to Dem ineptitude and I have been thinking evil thoughts about some joy in him losing. But when I heard one of my go to people - Sam Seder, Majority Report, say if the Dems had to lose the House he wouldn't mind seeing Maloney lose -- my thoughts exactly.

Republicans and the right are seriously organized with an immediate on message attack mechanism that threatens democracy, the economy (Republicans have no answers), the climate disaster, a willingness to wreck the world economy because the evangelical base is looking forward to Armageddon. The right is fighting at the school board level. Dems have no response.

I've even entertained more evil thoughts that if the Dems lost real big it would prove the Republicans have no solutions other than mayhem and maybe wake Dems up -- but nahhh, they will seek to blame the left. Or Russians. Hillary, you know, made no mistakes.

But I don't need mayhem at this point in my life --- crashing the global economy and wiping out our pensions will not be fun. Would a massive loss lead to a reawakening of Dems -like It's the economy, stupid? Yes, they will find a way to blame Bernie Sanders and the left -- which has been quiet like mice.

Some major trends over the past 60 years that have put the Democratic Party, facing a red wave in the mid-terms, in a box. And never forget that our own beloved Unity Caucus machine and its NYSUT and AFT counterparts are attached to Dem Party central.

Naturally the race issue lost the Dems the south since LBJ's Civil Rights Acts. And race has continued to play a role. But what to make of the fact that the Dems are even beginning to lose people of color - Hispanic, Asian and even black working class - and to some extent the black business class. 

But I also blame the neo-liberalism in the Dem party that took hold after Reagan won and has lasted 40 years. The idea that led Dems to be willing to support MedAdv over Medicare and charters over public schools and a free market that allowed millions of jobs to go abroad in the interests if cheap goods but at the cost of social infrastructure that has led to the rise of Trump. Clinton and Obama were endemic. Now they race around trying to save the party from the massive defeat they helped set the stage for.

Neo-liberalism mentality has undermined the message of the Democratic Party as they - and not just white working class.

The lack of focus from Democrats on the economy and inflation comes as recent polls from the Washington Post and Monmouth University found that the top two most important issues among voters are the economy and inflation — far outpacing abortion... The Lever

The only explanation for [Democrats] political malpractice [in not holding Republicans accountable for anti-worker policies] is fear of making promises they might have to keep.... Krystal Ball

• Krystal and Kyle delve into this deeply with guest Rana Foroohar on the 40 year neo-liberal journey of Dems and she is positive on Biden in contrast to Kyle and Krystal - a really illuminating podcast.
• https://krystalkyleandfriends.substack.com/p/episode-97-audio-rana-foroohar
  

Disaster on horizon with safety net, climate, democracy on the block when Rep win

 

Republicans have been trying to get rid of the FDR socialist program known as social security since 1936 and the LBJ socialist Medicare (for seniors who reach 65) and Medicaid for the poor since implemented in the mid-60s. Getting rid of them means some form of privatization. The problem for Democrats is that at times they have been willing to go along with aspects of the program. Remember how Biden and Obama were ready to deal on entitlements?

 

There's a pretty good chance Hochul may lose and the Dem Party and the UFT will be in deep shit. All we hear from Hochul is abortion. I get a call an hour from the UFT telling me to vote Dem. I got one I answered and had a nice conversation with Jill, a retiree who hates the idea of Mulgrewcare but spends weeks calling people all over the country. I told her hearing Mulgrew leave us messages on how to vote probably costs the Dems votes. 

Dems spend 4x as much on abortion issue ads than on the economy, as I echoed Bernie Sanders in this Oct. 17 post: It's the economy stupid - Bernie TRASHES Dems for ...

I linked to these articles:  Dems Barely Messaging On Economic Issues

 

Someone left this anon comment: Old white guys: abortion is not important. 

Well, this election will prove that it is not old white guys who think other things are important. I responded: If you want to win - it's the economy stupid. Look where abortion finishes in the polls. And there's nothing dems can do about it other than the state level. Fact is healthcare issue affects the most people. And want to know something else -- people don't care if there is our version of democracy where the politicians are owned by corporates. They will settle for dictatorship -- After this election it's over for Dems. Republicans will never let them win another election. And most Dems will sit on their hands and whine about it but as long as they are left a slice of the pie it is fine.

 

Note how the commenter makes it seem as if I said abortion is not important -- I said it's not the only thing. Reminds me of when I worked with people who always put race at the top -- I said it was important but not the only thing. I was called a racist.

 

Dem Party central and Unity Caucus will still be in business even after a Republican landslide. In some ways seeing the Dem Party go extinct - which it has in so many states and even in large swaths of blue states - may lead to something else. But what else?

 

I've grown to despise the consultant class that has such influence of the Democratic Party. Despite the Republican loony society branding Democrats as socialists the reality is the party is under the control of right of center Dems - what used to be the liberal wing of the Republican Party -- the neo-liberal philosophy of anti-labor unions (they restrict the beloved market forces), supporting the movement of American industrial jobs to China, Mexico, etc where workers are paid bupkus, and a list of transgressions too many to name. 

 

There is hysteria abounding before the probable end of democracy as we know it, not only due to anti-democratic moves by Republicans but because as they gain control I see a massive economic disaster coming as the cut budgets and taxes and take away the safety net - including social security and Medicare. Oh, am I talking about Michael Mulgrew? I accuse him and his Unity gang of fundamentally supporting Republican (and most Dem) attempts to move Medicare into private hands. 

 

Now those of us on the left who criticize Dems for being neo-liberals get attacked for helping Republicans win.  

 

A massive loss may kill Biden 2024 candidacy - but then who?

Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman has run an ad declaring that “our economy is a mess because of Washington — the rich, powerful, the insiders, and the lobbyists,” adding: “They set the rules, weakened our supply chain, and spiked inflation.”

Krystal and Sagaar went into of not Biden, who on Breaking Points yesterday -- they listed the usual suspects from last time - all a disaster. They didn't mention one - Tim Ryan - who I thought was a real attack dog on progressives last time. But if he's close in Ohio tonight, he becomes a 2024 candidate as many say he's run the best Dem campaign considering he's in a deep red state. I hated him then, but just to show how desparate we are, he would be my choice in 2024 - and if he wins by some miracle tonight -- may just be ambitious enough to primary Biden. After all, he once ran against Pilosi.