Saturday, November 12, 2022

No Red Wave and Dismal Election Results Didn't Happen But Dems should not be Celebrating Averting a Disaster

Still waiting for you to admit how wrong you were on some many counts here, Norm, from completely missing the importance of the abortion issue as an old white guy and how important the democracy issue was to missing how well Democrats outside of NY State would do. If it were not for Sean Patrick Maloney and Co., we would have held the House, which hasn't happened since the 1960s Democrats in mid-terms, much less with all of the fundamentals -- galloping inflation, unpopular president -- going the wrong way.  ...comment on
What's Wrong with the Democrats as Disaster Looms for Climate, democracy, the economy, and yes, crime

A quick note for those into the health care issue:   Sunday Nov. 13 - 7PM - A Town Hall sponsored by MORE Join other union members deeply concerned about @UFTleadership’s healthcare givebacks! Retirees and Active members- we are all in this together.

Saturday - Nov. 12 - I started this Wednesday so excuse the scattered thoughts. 

I cancelled my move to Portugal or Canada - temporarily.  

Did the Dems learn anything on messaging from what went right or wrong?

I fear they will spend a lot of time working their shoulder joints out of whack from patting themselves on the back. If there had been a red wave they would have blamed the progressives of course. But progressives didn't have a bad election.

The Squad gained a few new members. A guy in Texas and Summer Lee in Pittsburgh who beat back millions from the Israeli lobby in both the primary and general election - they loves to go after progressive black women as they did with Nina Turner. Of course Sean Patrick Maloney attacked AOC after the election over her criticisms of the NY Party.

I have loads of links for follow-ups but here is one that just came in:
With the crime issue on top, a number of progressive reformers still won. You don't get those reports on main media -- which is why I'm addicted to mainstream and alt left media.
How about the student debt issue as there was a bigger turnout than expected from the youth vote? Dems hid from this issue fearing old folk outrage but a targeted appeal to youth about the threat by Republicans might have spurred even a bigger turnout. And then there's the marijuana issue too. Both issues buried.
New York state was a disaster despite Hochul win -- but her poor campaign really dragged people down and made Zeldin a hero in Republican circles. If it comes down to one vote in the House, blame Sean Patrick Maloney. If it's two or more I'm happy he lost.
Jonathan has good analysis on the NY State races: 
Locally in Rockaway

 There is a lot of corruption in the Dem party here. My local Dem Assemblywoman Stacy Pfeffer Amato may have lost to a POS Republican slug in a close race. My neighborhood went 75-90% for Zeldin which was why I panicked. I had nothing against Stacy - I voted for her and straight Dem but I should point out she took over from her mother -- that seat was in the hands of her family for probably 40 years. And when her mom gave it up she became the head of some patronage Queens job. And Joe Addabo also won - he took over from his father. Is something wrong when we have a sort of monarchy? But despite not liking Greg Meeks, he beat my super POS Paul King (who is head of my Property Owners Assoc) 75-25. And don't forget - my city councilwoman is a right wing Republican (you no longer can separate them - all Republicans are hard right). I'm supposed to call her to get her to be with us on the Medicare issue. 

My old paper, The Wave, gave the right wing enormous space. They dumped me years ago when new right wing ownership took over - I was the only progressive voice there. But do I miss not having to hit a deadline every week?

I ran in my post with the "it's the economy stupid argument, not just abortion" but it seems there was a silent last minute Dem surge. Maybe the economy is not as bad given the under 4% unemployment rate, a far cry from the 10% Obama faced in 2010.

One thing about inflation -- for 40 years we had no inflation due to shifting high paying middle class jobs out of this country by outsourcing. As we bring jobs back, we ain't paying people a dollar an hour. So you can't have more jobs here and no higher inflation. Accept that. The complaints that Biden overspent on handing people money they spend on stuff is over the top. Every country has inflation except a few. Supply chain, higher wages, greedy corps. Some of this message seemed to register in the last ten days.

And abortion did keep driving the engine according to pundits. I think the threat just woke up enough people to make a difference. Panic like mine set in over the past 10 days and Dems did enough tinkering and scare morning. Inflation not as big as people thought -- one theory - Inflation is due in part to higher wages, especially for the lower paid workers -- so maybe some workers came home to Dems.

I admit I was wrong in my assessment. I was panicked by the polls. But think of how close almost every election was - except for DeSantis in Florida where he is the new king. No one is talking about how awful his opponent was and how scerotic the Florida Dem Party is. Val Demmings? She ran with a right wing Dem agenda. As did Ryan in Ohio - I admit I was pretty wrong on him. I was buying the Morning Joe hype about his great campaign -- the left analysis is that running from the right only works in a few cases. Fetterman didn't shy away from a working class argument and won higher totals in rural areas. The stroke might have gained him some votes.

Actually, there was a shift in the last week or ten days as Dems began to broaden the message from just abortion  and address crime and the economy. So while the massive turnout has been attributed to the abortion issue, I also made the point they can't only focus on that.

I've been slow to respond because I have been listening to so many podcasts - Krystal on Breaking Points (live show in NYC Dec. 6), Sam and Emma on Majority Report, Ryan Grim on Intercepts, David Sirota on The Lever ---- I have tabs open for all of them as I haven't gone through them but will put up a follow up.

I went into the city Tuesday night for dinner with a friend so I wasn't in Rockaway and able to totally monitor election results but I did have access to some services and tried to keep up. I watched TV, flipping channels - while also watching live feeds on my phone and ipad from Sam at MR and Krystal and Kyle and Sagaar followed by Ryan and Emily--- quadruple tasking. I still have a big backlog to review.

I woke up at 4 AM Wednesday, hit the gym at 5:30AM and hunkered down.

Doom and gloom didn't come as I expected. But Dems can and probably will still lose the House. But the margin looks so slim it might actually work out for them. Let the Republicans play crazy with investigations and get nothing done other than destruction.

I still think that the number of close elections is scary. Just a nudge here and there and we could have lost the Senate too. Maybe still can if Nevada goes bad and Georgia too. So counting no chickens. 

Biden numbers should go up - I predict high 40s soon.

A win for Biden. This election makes him more likely to run again - one of the benefits of a red wave would have been a decision not to run. Watch his poll numbers go up as Dems start coming home. A deranged Trump announcement will help - though DeSantis is actually more scary - Victor Orban in white boots.

I watched the celebration on Morning Joe and it seemed obscene. They saw the night as a big loss for Trump and were almost celebrating the DeSantis big win. It shows you Dem Party mindset -- oh what a relief if we get "normal Republican" Desantis as President.

It's amazing how they can't stop talking about Trump. They say it was a massive loss for Trump -- but how about the Vance win? Notice they leave that out. I think the blame Trump arguement is media hype but so happy it drives him nuts. The comment about Virginia Gov Yung Kim sounding Chinese is one of his more unhinged.

And by the way -- the big Asian shift to Republicans in NYC is also unhinged as the attacks on them emanated from Republicans. I know a Trumpy who at ever mention of Covid says - "The China Virus."

I wanted Tim Ryan to be closer but it is clear that Ohio and Florida are fundamentally gone for Dems and getting redder. The Morning Joe crowd said they should not be stupid and toss money in those states. But then there's Sharrod Brown, who might be an ideal Pres 2024 candidate. 

The Dems didn't for Ryan but they did for Christ and Demmings -- I hear 70 million on lost causes - smart spending could have won the House. The way Dem Central make these decisions is part of why the Party is so often in trouble -- like spending 40 mil in Kentucky in 2020 for a horrible candidate and also in South Carolina to oppose Graham. No sechel.

Right now the Senate hinges on Nevada - if she loses don't count chickens in Georgia when the entire nation will be focused on it.

What is clear, is that Republican sprinkle was not a mandate to engage in war and if they try with endless impeachments and investigations it will cause them harm in 2024. 


Anonymous said...

I am not so convinced that there was a big Asian vote shift in NYC. I read Ross Barkan's Twitter comment to this effect, too. But the problem is that the Brooklyn district he cited as an example included not just Brooklyn Chinatown, but strongholds of ultra-orthodox Jewish community, such as Borough Park. And there is no question that Zelden was very strong in that community.

Anonymous said...

It seems the Executive action to forgive student debts is predictably going nowhere. That inconvenient constitution and ‘separation of powers ‘ stuff. Some say it was just a ploy to temporarily attract some young voters to the Dem side this cycle given the inevitability of its demise. Oh well.

ed notes online said...

Check the Queens map for Flushing.

Anonymous said...

Exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but there is this:

Anonymous said...

And this in the New York Times:
Early voting data also showed that Asian American voters, while a smaller group, voted in higher numbers and were more reliably Democratic than in the last midterm. Among young voters, early turnout of Democratic Asian American voters rose 36 percent, compared with a 14 percent rise in Republican support, Tom Bonier, the chief executive of the Democratic data analysis firm TargetSmart, noted the weekend before the election.

Anonymous said...

I looked at all that red in eastern queens. Also heard Jewish vote went from usual 70 dem to 35-40 Republicans

ed notes online said...

As one who went to Brooklyn College for free I have no joy as you apparently do. If Biden was against student debt you'd be for it. Of course when the courts are stacked with right wingers. you'd get this ruling. If Trump forgave student debt to get their votes the same judges would hop to.

Anonymous said...

How many times did Trump violate separation of powers?