Betting on Thompson Surge as I Pulled the Lever for .....

Don't count your di Blasio chickens yet.

On my short 2 minute walk to the polling booth I was listening to Brian Lehrer and a woman said she changed her mind about di Blasio because of the Wayne Barrett and Slate articles -- they bothered me too.

She was going to Thompson. I detect a late Thompson surge and some wearing away of diBlasio support and will make a rough guess that di Blasio numbers will drop to the mid thirties - say 35-6% and Thompson's will head toward the late 20's. A very competitive run-off I will bet at the power forces push Thompson. Where will Quinn's votes go for instance? Thompson, mostly.

My gut instincts that both Thompson and di Blasio will screw us but if I look at self interest alone -- a) A runoff between them would be lots of fun and b) Better Thompson, the UFT choice, screws us.

But I also feel that diBlasio's electoral constituency would hold him more accountable than Thompson's, so better to have Big Bill rather than little Bill.

However, in the booth I just had to give Sal Albanese a pop, especially since Kevin Boyle my editor at The Wave is so passionate about showing that there is a constituency for guys like him. Since Big Bill will be in the runoff we can go there next time. Or maybe not given how much fun it would be to watch Little Bill tilt to Tisch rather than to Mulgrew.

At any rate, yesterday I raised my problem in who to vote for for Queens Borough President and lo and behold there was dropout Tony Avella, my fave politician, still on the ballot. And so I wasted yet another vote.

But did vote for Scott Stringer who is clearly a hack but Patrick Sullivan influenced me there. Spitzer doesn't seem to be able to win but it would be fun to watch if he did.

Oh, and of course Leticia James who I feel has great potential as a populist politician.

Breaking: NYPD String Safety Nets Around 52 Broadway in Case Thompson Doesn't Make Runoff

With so much at stake for the gang running the UFT and AFT (Randi) -- but not so much for NY city teachers -- who one would think are their main constituency -- there is fear that bodies will come crashing down from the roof of the UFT headquarters if Bill Thompson doesn't make it into the runoff, though I agree with Reality Based Educator that he probably will (2013 Election: Predictions And Endorsements).

[I interrupt this report to report that Ednotes online just passed 2 million page views since July 2009 when I started using the Google counter].

Just think of it. Can Bill di Blasio really be worse for UFT members than Thompson? Though I also agree with RBE not to trust di Blasio, Thompson is worse (Bill Thompson Hit The Brooklyn Streets Yesterday With Al D'amato Trolling For Votes).
Actually, much worse.

But this past weekend we saw the desperation with Leo Casey whining on twitter about how irresponsible MORE has been in not endorsing a candidate given that this is the most important election in poor Leo's life. We also saw New Action's Halabi tag teaming with his pal Leo in also making a point about MORE's non-endorsement. Yes, if Thompson loses it is all MORE's fault - as if the endorsement by a small caucus in the UFT would actually make a difference. We are not as pretentious as New Action was 4 years ago in endorsing Thompson and making that a big issue in their campaign in the UFT elections. Yawn.

I'm not going to get into the details of why on paper di Blasio seems better for educators and education than Thompson but this is all about power at the top, not about what is good for the rank and file. And for students and parents. So what else is new?

I saw that Thompson's big move is to allow parents to chose a member of the PEP. Gee wiz. Hey Bill, how about allowing parents to choose the entire PEP (other than the 5 borough president choices)?

You can't tell me that a guy supported by D'Amato and Tisch is good for us.

If di Blasio actually cuts into the charter lobby and makes charters pay the damn rent - which I am ready to bet he won't - then that is worth seeing him in office. As RBE points out (Bloomberg Furious He Can't Stop Attacks On His "Legacy), just having a guy win who trashes Bloomberg's legacy brings a smile to my face. But I really think he will turn into another Obama.

And there was that Wayne Barrett piece - What you don't know about Big Bill- Digging deeper into de Blasio's associations.

Scary stuff.

Imagine this scenario: di Blasio wins and screws us and the UFT leadership says "we told you so." As an organizer in the union trying to get people to join MORE, I would much rather have Thompson screw us so we can say "told you so."

By the way, I'm sure you noticed RBE's amazing election coverage and analysis at Perdido Street School blog.

He is holding his nose and voting for diB. I was thinking of going for Sal Albanese but am also thinking that if my vote puts Bill D over the 40% I'd hate to lose that opportunity. Sal was endorsed by The Wave out here (It’s Sal) and they made a good case for that not being a wasted vote. (If the link above doesn't work, you can read the endorsement editorial below the break. -- but here's a sample:

If you’re not crazy about any of the candidates—and admit it, you’re not -- hold on. Say the polls are fairly accurate and Sal will finish far behind. Your vote for Sal still holds value. Your vote will actually signal something to those left standing. Your “Sal” vote will be considered an “undecided” vote and will be sought after in a runoff or the general election.

I actually have mixed feelings about the idea of a runoff with Thompson. I'm thinking of the advantage of keeping that race alive and giving less time for the Lhota dogs to come out in force against dB.

I agree with RBE about Tish James for Public Advocate. She has steadily been moving in the direction of the forces battling ed deform.

I do not agree with his points about not endorsing Stringer though the idea of Spitzer winning (which I think he won't) in office putting burs in everyone's butt. I am voting Stringer out of loyalty to Patrick Sullivan who he appointed to the PEP even if I agree with RBE that he could get away with it given that Patrick was often a lone voice. Still .... Patrick is a Stringer guy and I am going with that.

I have a problem with the Queens borough president race since my guy Tony Avella dropped out. I don't like Valone or Katz, who is  the partner of Curtis Sliwa who makes me gag. And the BP picks a PEP person so it is important but if I had to hold my nose I would go for Katz --- no, I can't do it.

My local Assemblyman, Phil Goldfeder, is a great guy and has made himself a Rockaway fave, so that's a no brainer.

Well, gotta go exercise my voting arm -- those old voting machines are rusty.