Showing posts with label UFT elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UFT elections. Show all posts

Monday, July 26, 2021

UFT Elections (Part 1) - Historical Analysis - Comparing the 2016 success and the 2019 disaster

UFT Slate Ballot 2016                   
    UNITY
    MORE/New Action  
 
UFT Slate Ballot 2019
    UNITY
    Solidarity
    MORE
    New Action
The real losers in all of this Norm is the active teacher base... Comment on Ed Notes 2019 UFT election report, May 23, 2019
As we approach another UFT general election cycle in the spring of 2022, I've been looking back at the various coalitions and where I've stood. 

I've always been ambivalent about the election process, though until the last election in 2019, I had thrown myself deeply into the battle since 2004. A group of independents, unhappy with the then state of the caucuses, formed a new caucus, ICE/UFT, specifically to run in that election, mainly because the predominant caucus, New Action, had made a deal with Randi that enraged the other anti-Unity forces. TJC was already out there but many felt they were a closed box, undemocratic and dominated by a few voices with a narrow agenda. People were upset at both TJC and NA.

The creation of a new caucus went against my normal grain. When I began Education Notes in 1997 I tried to make it a unifying force and in fact soon after the 2001 UFT elections I called a meeting of all interest groups and independents in the UFT to unite for the next elections, but also to begin working together instead of in separate silos inside the UFT, especially at Delegate Assemblies. After an almost fist fight at the second meeting I have up and instead began to drift toward bringing people together around some of the principle issues I was addressing in Ed Notes, which led to the formation of ICE a few years later.

Generally I have always been in favor of caucuses uniting, either permanently as in 1995, when New Action emerge out of the merger of New Directions and Teachers Action Caucus and in 2012 when ICE and Teachers for a Just Contract merged into MORE (along with other groups). 

At the time, MORE looked like it could unite most of the anti-Unity forces and form one umbrella opposition caucus - a big tent. Unfortunately, within a few short years divisions opened up and the alliance of ICE and TJC proved to have weak bonds -- MORE is now controlled by many of the original TJCC people while ICE is out in the cold.

I've taken various positions regarding UFT elections in 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, at times advocating a boycott and using the election as a means to pointing out how it is rigged in Unity's favor. But few agreed with me, their juices running at the very thought of an election, even if the process occupies months of time where organizing actually doesn't take place -- I base this on the outcomes of previous elections where some people not in the opposition literati get active briefly with the expectation we could win and then when the reality of seeing Mulgrew get 80-85% of the vote, fade into the woodwork.

I changed my mind in 2016 when New Action left its alliance with Unity and joined with MORE in an election coalition and we knew we could win the 7 high school seats. And we did win those seats. Barely, but we won. I remember arguing with some of the resisters in MORE who liked to run only if they wouldn't win anything that winning even 7% of the Ex Bd offered hope to the anti-Unity rank and file. And our electeds did yeoman duty - holding open pre-ex bd meetings and bringing a wide range of  people to advocate for their causes at the meetings.

That model of winning even 7% of the Ex Bd - as opposed to the outcome of 2019 where Unity won 100% - is a prime motivating factor in an attempt to bring all groups together to win those seats -- and hopefully some others in the middle and elementary schools. If all three teacher divisions were won, that would be 23% of the Ex Bd.

Outside the internal literati of the UFT, the average UFT member doesn't have much of a clue as to the differences between the various caucuses -- or even give a much of a shit. Fundamentally they often ask, "Why can't you guys get together? You are asking us to vote for you instead of Unity and even small groups like you can't come together?" Don't forget, 70% of UFT members don't vote, even higher in the teacher divisions. A non-vote is in essence a rejection of Unity and the opposition. And I believe that multiple caucuses running against Unity suppresses the vote further.

In 2019, after a successful 2016 campaign by a coalition of MORE and New Action, MORE inexplicably decided to break that alliance and run a lone campaign that was designed to purposely NOT win anything. 

In my last months in MORE I was taking part in these debates and offered two options -- either run as a united front with other caucuses and indepenents so voters face a clearly defined choice between Unity and an opposition, or don't run at all and use the election to focus on issues. Both ideas were rejected and eventually I was forced out of MORE for writing about the debate.

The outcome was a disaster from the point of electoral politics as MORE finished third behind Solidarity which had not even been able to have enough candidates to get rccognized as a slate in 2016. 

A big question on the minds of the usual suspects thinking ahead to the 2022 elections is will MORE make the same mistake, a mistake that the caucus has not been open about -- or even informed its many new members, some of whom have been in touch asking what happened?

In 2016 MORE/New Action had about 10,600 votes and a non-slate candidate for president had 1400. That was 12,000 votes against Unity, a number matching some of the better outcomes for the opposition over history. 

The total vote of three opposition caucuses running independently in 2019 was less than 7,000. How did such a disastrous outcome occur over a 3 year period? See theEd Notes Election report

The only way to challenge Unity is to have one slate go head to head, not a smorgasbord of opposition groups that only confuse the membership.

I've been hearing from people who listened to my discussion with Leo Casey and Daniel Alicea of UFT history in its early decades on the "Talk Out of School" WBAI broadcast last Saturday. 

Some have pointed to our not getting to the issue of opposition groups in the union that were opposed to Unity Caucus since 1962. And there have been quite a few such groups over the decades. I've helped found three or four (depending on how you classify them) since the 70s.

Having a clean choice of Unity vs one opposition is important for the average, non-involved in UFT internal politics voter - or non-voter.

UFT Slate Ballot 2016                   
    UNITY
    MORE/New Action                        
*Solidarity did not have the required 40 to be listed as a slate, but did run as individuals.  
 
Outcome: MORE/NA received almost 11,000 votes and the Solidarity presidential candidate 1400 votes. MORE/NA also won the 7 high school Ex Bd. seats
 
UFT Slate Ballot 2019
    UNITY
    Solidarity
    MORE
    New Action                                                                                              

Outcome: No ex bd seats - total of all opposition groups less than 8000.

The 2019 UFT election with 3 opposition slates on the ballot was an absolute disaster to have slid back so far after the gains of 2016.

So with elections coming up next year, here we are with the same situation,

I have examined my thinking over the years and firmly believe that I and many of my colleagues from back to the early 70s have tried to bring the opposition forces together for UFT elections and in other areas, like the Delegate Assembly.

The caucus system has often interfered with thee goals. Every small pond must have its big cheeses. But let's agree that there will always be one of more opposition caucus in the UFT, as there has been since the 1960s. The most successful outcomes have come when caucuses came together for general elections -- and of course I don't mean actually winning the election since Unity has had control since the inception of the UFT in 1960 - but in vote totals and winning some seats on the Ex Bd.

One of the most successful coming together elections was in 1981 when three competing caucuses - New Directions (ND), Teachers Action Caucus (TAC), Coalition of School Workers (CSW) - plus independents -  joined to form New Action Coalition - taking one word from the name of each caucus. (In 1995 New Directions and TAC merged to form the current New Action.) We signed up a full slate of 800 people to run - see photo below. And we held large petition signing events attended by hundreds who also picked up literature to distribute in their schools. That election coalition lasted though the 90s and won the high school VP position in 1985 and high school and middle school ex bd seats in the 90s - in fact has continuously won the high schools on the whole -- until 2019.

We truly all didn't get along very well but put aside the rancor of the 70s and even if it took years, this coalition began to make some headway, culminating in winning the HS VEEP in 1985 and 13 Ex Bd seats in 1991.

Many of us believe we are in a unique moment in UFT history, with signs there may be some slippage in the retiree vote and Unity fumbling on a host of issues, putting the high school and middle school ex bd seats in play. And some signs of elementary school disaffection. 

With so many teachers not voting in the past, a GOTV campaign using the many retirees who have become activated and working through the Retiree Advocate group, which itself has cross caucus people from New Action, ICE, a few former MOREs and independents might offer a change to make a dent in Unity, even if winning the whole thing may not be in the cards.

Election lit, 1981:



Sunday, April 28, 2019

UFT Election Overall and Retiree Data: Halabi Reports

Mulgrew had 37,000 votes and over 20,000 came from retirees, a warning shot across the bow of the UFT leadership and to some extent it explains their reaching out to former opposition people to stay on the Ex Bd by running on the Unity line. It won't do them much good as the UFT needs deep structural changes instead of cosmetic ones.
It was a bad election for the UFT. Vote totals were down across the board. My caucus, New Action, did particularly poorly
Unity did sweep the seats. But the group that has a monopoly on power has a growing inability to turn out votes, even after turning a popular chapter leader of a huge school, and a prominent Bernie Sanders supporter, with following.....
....Unity can claim a victory – they took an absolute majority of the high school votes for the first time since I’ve been a teacher… but with their second lowest vote total in years, perhaps ever.
I’ve seen speculation about who came in second overall. These results make me think Unity came in second – and those with an interest in promoting distance between the members and the union – our enemies – came in first...
..... Jonathan Halabi, https://jd2718.org
I've been posting the election data as Jonathan compiles it division by division. Below are the retiree votes -- which seem to have leveled off at around 21,000 with Unity getting almost 90% of the votes. First here are his rough overall totals. The numbers are pathetic for everyone.


Here is the rough skinny on the retiree vote:

Friday, April 26, 2019

UFT Election 2019 - Functional Chapters Based on Halabi Data

Functional chapters (non-teaching) are the mystery ship of the UFT - we address the fundamentals. There are about 40,000 working functionals - non-classroom plus 60,000 retirees and they are lumped together when they vote in UFT elections and get 19 Ex Bd seats. Thanks to Jonathan Halabi's efforts, we are getting some of the data from the UFT elections with his comparisons to previous elections. In this piece he provides info on the often mysterious functional chapter(s).
Actual teachers in the three divisions total over 70,000 so even if a strategy of winning the three teacher ex bd divisions (total- 23 seats) where retirees don't vote was successful, the UFT would still be under Unity control, but seriously threatened if the opposition could gain control of the functionals. Below I delve into why that would be so difficult. Even if the opposition were to win these 19 and add them to the 23 teaching seats the 42 seats would still fall short since there are 48 Ex Bd at-large seats where retirees vote. And in fact retirees vote and run for the functional ex bd seats too so that is how the election is rigged.
9000 non-retiree functional voted in this election out of the 40,000. Unity got 7200, a drop of around 400 from 2016 - maybe due to the OT/PT people. MORE received 824 and New Action 212 while together in 2016 they got 2200. So they lost 50% of the previous vote together but MORE even got less than they did in 2013, which is remarkable since they opportunistically focused their attention on the OT/PT chapter and ran one of the big voices in opposition to the contract as an officer. Let's assume a batch of their 824 came from that chapter.

The surprise was the showing of Solidarity (referring to them as Portelos' clique by Jonathan is disrespectful to the people involved) which got 917 votes, following their trend of tripling their 2016 votes across the board. I assume some of the unhappy OT/PT people went for them too. And secretaries are not happy either. Paras seemed to get some improvements in their contract and I would assume they went big for Unity.

I hear over 21000 retirees voted. (Some MORE supporters are whining about a phony issue where some retirees cut off the ballot in the middle and sent it in - we are addled, you know. And to count those the machines had to be reset. It seems that somehow counting these caused some to start charging it was fraud -- sure.)

In previous posts Jonathan covered the other divisions of the union and also did an overall summation (which we have yet to publish). I've been trying to break down the data with some analysis. Why? Because the past counts no matter how much people want to deny it and the patter in UFT elections is consistent. Yet we will see once again in 2022 caucuses claiming we need to vote in new leadership in the UFT. My goal is to get people to stop wasting everyone's time and energy unless you have built a massive and united opposition going head to head with Unity. That won't happen as long as caucuses see their priority as building their own narrow caucus instead of an opposition united on some basic principles. Let me know when that happens.

Here are my previous reports in reverse order of publishing with links to Jonathan's posts.
Also read Arthur's take: MORE Plans to Fail, Fails to Plan to Fail Sufficiently, and Comes in Second Among Working Teachers

About the functional chapters: 
There were 13 colored ballots during the contract vote for the functionals. The biggest one is the para chapter with I am told 19,000 members. Secretaries were usually over 3000. Guidance counselors and social workers and OT/PT and school nurses and hospital nurses. Others are much smaller.

Each chapter elects its own chapter leader and delegates and an ex bd to run the chapter and Unity makes sure to control this process and make sure the chapters remain loyal and don't go off the reservation. They have been pretty successful in this -- I was in a functional in my last few years in the system - the teacher assigned chapter -- I worked for the district - and I believe Randi opened up a delegate position for me since I was not in critical mode at the time --- I was sort of told that they wanted to be pushed - a little -- but when my pushing went over a line they were not happy.

Functionals help Unity control elections and the delegate assembly
Retirees are a functional and there are 63,000 retirees with 300 delegates to the DA - and add all the other chapter delegates -- like paras etc -- all pretty much under Unity control - so the functional chapters when added to the Unity chapter leaders and delegates in the schools give Unity control over the DA too.

Retirees don't vote for contracts but do vote in UFT elections. But their vote is broken out separately because there is a cap on retiree votes - I think 21,000  - which means if more than 21,000 vote - as I think happened this time -- each vote becomes a fraction. Like this time maybe .95 or something.

The little trick Unity plays with the 19 functional ex bd seats is to lump them together instead of allowing each functional to elect its own member(s) to the Ex Bd. One reform of the UFT Ex Bd to open it up would be stop lumping them. And to manage the retiree issue I would give retirees a bunch of seats on the Ex Bd since they are such a big chapter -- say 5. But I would also cut down on the 300 Unity delegates they get in the DA. And I would also give retirees a seat on the ad com. But they would not vote for the rest of the adcom or at large ex bd. In fact, I would fundamentally eliminate the at-large seats or maybe reserve 10.

Well, I hope you understand more about the UFT functionals. If my plan to win the 23 ex bd teacher seats ever came about, an opposition would have make some inroads into some of the functionals. Ironically, the only chapter with even a semblance of an opposition is the retiree chapter where the Retiree Advocate operates with New Action and some of the former MOREs who are also still involved. We run in the chapter elections and put out a newsletter but of course getting retirees to go against Unity is a useless operation because who are the happiest people in the UFT?


Wednesday, April 24, 2019

UFT 2019 Election Report - MORE Follies, Middle and Elem from Halabi Data

A united front in UFT elections might actually have won the middle schools in addition to the high schools and possibly made a dent in the elementary schools.

MORE shrinks rank and file power
MORE is contending that attempts to win these seats is somehow counter to what they term as "building rank and file power", another piece of rhetoric that is fundamentally meaningless, as if having the rank and file actually cast a vote for you doesn't really mean very much. The actions of MORE have actually shrunk rank and file power by undermining the general opposition to Unity Caucus and strengthened the ruling power. Building real rank and file power requires weakening the control of Unity and how driving out people into the arms of Unity does that is beyond me.

Arthur has a must-read funny and devastating blog post on the MORE folly of not winning: 
MORE Plans to Fail, Fails to Plan to Fail Sufficiently, and Comes in Second Among Working Teachers
MORE went into this election cycle with the clear goal of losing. Optimally they would get no votes whatsoever. However, an election campaign requires that you ask people to vote for you. Otherwise, it would not be a campaign. So there's the rub--when you run to lose you have to at least pretend to run to win, or people will find you insincere. Now it's pretty tough, when you are sincerely insincere, to prove you are not. So that was one quandary.
The ISO (now disbanded) wing of MORE (which is still intact and in control of MORE) in its internal reports to the ISO leadership (which I will be publishing excerpts of) were selling the idea to the newly recruited Democratic Socialists (DSA) that the now purged ICEUFT wing of MORE was somehow right wing - a joke since it was mostly socialist or left Democrats - and that in order to win seats on the UFT Ex Bd MORE would have to dilute the social justice message where in reality we called for cutting the rhetoric and dog whistles and presenting a broader base of ideas without labeling things as bread and butter or social justice. As a lifelong socialist in ICEUFT recently commented: We are not ceding to MORE that their vision of social justice is the correct one.

ICEUFT was truly a rational social justice caucus. That real conditions teachers and students were facing in the schools not the agenda of a tiny group of people is the real way to drive building rank and file power.

The ISO fraction (as they call themselves) viewed winning as being just for the sake of winning. Arthur takes that down with:
... you run no candidates whatsoever for the high school seats, because last time you won them, and that was a disaster. I mean, there were those people going to Executive Board twice a month, making themselves available to anyone who wanted to talk to them, and advocating for just about anyone who asked. Worse, they didn't bother to advocate for the things you wanted because it was Monday night and hey, Monday night is rumba lessons.
The point I could never seem to get across within MORE was that winning seats from Unity IS a message to the rank and file, which has its only opportunity to participate during elections and gives them a chance to send the UFT leadership a message. And by winning or at least challenging seriously, the leadership itself feels threatened enough to possibly modify its policies. For me the golden oak leaf cluster would be to win all three school divisions where retirees can't vote --- that would not only send a message, but would also open up the idea of a law suit on the retiree issue -- that the working teachers were voting opposition but were thwarted.

That dream is done in by the sectarian actions of the MORE leadership under the control of the ISO faction or fraction or whatever.

In this election, whatever share of the rank and file that votes shat on the MORE vision of building rank and file power.

Middle and Elem school election outcome
Jonathan Halabi has been doing a yeoman job parsing UFT election data. (What a way to spend a week off. But look at me spending time on doing the same thing.) Here is his middle and elementary school data with my commentary.

While we considered winning the high school ex bd seats a pretty sure bet with a united front, the middle school ex bd seats were deemed remotely winnable if a concerted effort was made by a united opposition. That may not be obvious at first but look at Jonathan's data over the past 3 elections - 13, 16, 19. In 2016, MORE/New Action with Solidarity data hit 39%, withing striking range in 2019 with a concerted effort to hit the largest middle schools from the beginning of the school year. Notice the drop in Unity votes from 2016 (think of it - Unity gets 1236 out of a potential 12,000 MS teachers). If you take the opposition totals from 2016 and apply them to 2019 (not a given), we would have been in striking range. The only time the opposition won the middle and high schools (13 seats) was in 1991.

MORE received only 145 ms votes - and they had one strong school - Kevin Prosen's where I bet many of the votes came from. Solidarity despite the low totals actually has made its best showing in MS % wise - and bested MORE with 188 votes. New Action's 74 votes is mostly due to the work of the tireless of Greg DiStefano in Staten Island.

Where did the rank and file strategy go in the middle schools when 882 people voted for MORE/NA in 2016 and only 219 MS teachers voted for them individually this time, a drop of about 75%? As Arthur said, MORE failed in its attempt to get 0 votes but got close.



Now the elementary schools are a different kettle of fish and winning this division would require a district based strategy, which no opposition in history has had(other than my group, Another View in District 14 in the early 70s). I did try to bring that idea to MORE with a focus on the one district where we seemed to have some strong elementary school people - District 15 -- but that effort fell apart as people left and other reasons. My idea was that a strong effort in just a few districts might pull enough elementary school votes to get close. That idea is not dead too.

But again look at the Unity numbers - 7k in 2016, 6k in 2019. MORE/NA did not do too bad in 2016 - over 2500 elem school votes if you add Solidarity. I believe most of these elem school votes came from MORE which in 2016 still had some force in District 15 and a few other districts.

And look how Solidarity outpolled MORE in the elem schools this time -- 519-433.  A disastrous drop for MORE -- probably closer to 80%. Hail to building rank and file power.


Here are my previous election reports:

Sunday, April 21, 2019

UFT Election Results: Halabi Posts High School Totals Plus Historical Perspective

I've been reporting on UFT elections - UFT Election Results: Unity the BIG Winner, MORE the Biggest Loser, Solidarity Stays Alive-
based on the data I've been given. Election results have been coming in piecemeal - Since I'm  not attached to any caucus I don't get official results. New Action's Jonathan Halabi posted these interesting high school vote totals on his blog where you should check out his comments. I left this comment on his first election post:
As a UFT wonk these numbers are fascinating to parse. Don’t forget that in 2004, ICE-TJC won the high schools because Unity didn’t run candidates. Unity vote went up very little. Total opposition vote went down drastically. The reason? Has to be the split in the opposition. Longtime anti-Unity voters just sat it out. The MORE drop from 2013 is stark. 60 or so people who signed up to run on the Solidarity ticket including a people who are respected in the UFT. Portelos played so much of smaller role this time — if he had played a bigger role they might have gotten more votes. The pattern of 30 years was broken not by Unity but by decisions made by the opposition caucuses. The so called Portelos clique which was considered marginal was given life by the MORE disaster. Also the idea that Arthur and Mike brought votes to Unity might be valid when you look at Unity’s 2013 totals – or not valid when comparing to 2016. The 50 extra votes this time could be from Arthur’s school plus some from Mike’s. Both schools had voted heavy for MORE/NA last time.
He also did a followup which I will address in tomorrow's post.

UFT 2019 High School Election results compared to previous years.


Analysis: There are about 20,000 high school teachers in the UFT .... Only 3265 voted in 2019

Unity
WOW! The numbers are ridiculous. Jonathan is painting this low turnout as a big loss for the UFT even if a win for Unity. But I don't even see this as a win for Unity in this sense. It is clear that if there were a united opposition that went after winning, Unity would have lost again.

2004
Look at the Unity numbers over the 6 election cycles Jonathan posted. The height of their vote totals in the HS was in 2004 but ironically, they didn't run any HS Ex Bd candidates due to their deal with New Action, which lost to the ICE/TJC which got 1417, less than half what Unity got. NA got 700 - so even if you added that to ICE/TJC, Unity would have won outright.

2016/19
Now consider that they only got 50 more votes this time than in 2016 and also that Arthur and Mike brought them a batch of votes over from MORE. So this makes Unity look even worse in the high schools. Mike got a bunch people to vote Unity at Leon Goldstein, which had been a TJC and then MORE school - and 4 faculty ran with MORE this time. Assume Arthur shifted at least a 100 or maybe 150 votes to Unity. It is clear to me that Unity is as weak as ever in the high schools, if not more so and that a united opposition that started early could win these seats in 2022 even if Arthur and Mike stayed with Unity. My question is why bother?

Solidarity
Some are painting the outcome as a big win for Solidarity over MORE but I don't see it that way. MORE, though suffering a tremendous drop in the high schools still beat Solidarity 544-376 with New Action getting 242, which is not totally out of line with the past performance since NA only got 454 in 2013.

But note that even with the ballot line and running candidates for HS Ex Bd, Solidarity went from 108 to 376 - which some are saying is a major move - more than tripling. I guess, but given that there are 20,000 hs teachers, that the HS have always been the most militant part of the union and that MORE ran no candidates for the winnable ex bd seats, claiming 376 votes as a victory is farcical.

New Action
The question is whether they survive. I think they do decide to continue a presence in the UFT and I hope they do. If the landscape changes within the opponents to Unity, they may have a role.

MORE: Plus A little history going back to the 2016 election
Since MORE was a combination of ICE and TJC plus others, Halabi has a continuous record of high school voting since 2004. Note the consistency over 4 election cycles from 2004 through 2013 - MORE's first year. 1417, 1524, 1369 with ICE/TJC and then when they combined with NYCORE and others  -- a shockingly consistent 1430 in 2013 even with so many new people. For MORE to drop from 1430 in 2013 to 544 in 6 years is a shocking loss of support.

I think MORE will just shrug the outcomes off and try to sell the idea they really didn't put much effort into this election and they never really cared about the outcome anyway. Will the members buy it? Since MORE is fundamentally a DSA oriented group I think most will because they have a bigger agenda than UFT politics.

But they must deal with the fact that ICE/TJC and MORE through 5 election cycles, with a broader agenda than just social justice pretty much were able to get 1350-2200 votes in the high schools. And look at the MORE candidates and the high schools they came from - count the potential votes and you will see even in the schools where they had a base they didn't necessarily get overwhelming support. I heard reports from one school with a prominent MORE as CL where people complained that chapter meetings were all about issues that they felt had nothing to do with them - like the fact Mulgrew signed on to bringing Amazon back - something they couldn't care less about.

To say MORE didn't put effort into the election is not totally true. The election is pretty much all MORE talked about at its meetings since October and they kept pushing people to get out the vote in their schools. Since MORE is almost all high school based, the 544 votes is a sign of how weak an impact MORE is having. But they may even try to sell this as a base with the argument that MORE in essence remade itself into a new caucus after the purges and was essentially starting over. Still, there are those numbers from 2013  - 1435 - when MORE was a new caucus to explain.

Also consider that some of that 544 comes from legacy voting - people not aware of changes in MORE but who had voted for MORE in 2016. Thus the actual strength is less than 544. Also consider the two schools Arthur and Mike come from. Arthur probably brought 150 or more votes to MORE in 16 and assume some shift of these to Unity. And Mike's school, which had always been opposition due to TJC's Kit Wainer, was split this time.

Background to MORE internals in the 2013 and 2016 election and signs of divisions

With all the action around the founding of MORE, with the ICE and TJC and NYCORE connections, especially in the high schools, in 2013, I expected we had a chance to compete for winning the HS ex bd seats. So when all we got was 1430 and Unity 1592 to which New Action's 452 were added, it was a bitter pill that all we needed was 2000 votes in the high schools to win and fell so far short.

It was clear not enough outreach even in their own schools had been done and it was at that point that I saw that MORE as an electoral entity did not have much promise, which is why I fundamentally urged them not to run unless it was in coalitions. MORE held a "2013 victory" party on the day the results were being announced attended by 80 people and when I showed up crestfallen to deliver the outcomes - they begged me to show a happy face. Also a clue that they did not want to face reality but wanted a positive spin. But imagine that 80 or more people came out in 2013 and compare to today? The MORE promise and where it went? would make a good study.

Some of us knew that with better organizing we could get at least 2000 or more in 2016 and we set out to do so -- but disruptions internally in MORE in 2014 derailed us.

Mike, James, Arthur and I - and the rest of the ICE wing of MORE - were the leading proponents of going all out to win the high school seats in 2016 as a way to show the membership Unity could be beaten in at least one division with the hope that would lead to a move to defeat Unity in the middle schools and eventually the elementary schools in the 2019 election.

That we had to put up a fight internally in MORE to go for these seats was a sign of things to come.

In the spring of 2015 we began a high school newsletter outside the bounds of MORE because trying to do so inside would be a struggle with the ideologues. But that newsletter - The High School Forum - got some resonance and distribution we were asked to bring that inside MORE, which later on co-opted the name. We formed a MORE high school committee which none of the MORE sectarians got involved in - at first. And that allowed us to take the lead. (We also urged the other divisions in MORE to do the same -MS and ES -- and that never happened.)

By early summer 2015 when NA was still with Unity, we organized at the MORE convention to focus the high school committee on winning and the vote was very favorable. We really thought we might win the high schools even if Unity and New Action ran together. After all, in 2013 Unity only had 1592 and New Action brought only 452. So we aimed at 2500 votes even if NA stayed with Unity.

Rumors were that NA was not happy with Mulgrew and I and a few others did see that if New Action could be lured away from Unity and into an alliance with MORE we could beat Unity in the high schools for sure in 2016.

At the convention we put together a MORE high school committee basically run - in the early stages - July, 2015 - by the ICE wing and its supporters - much to the dissatisfaction of the ISO led ideology wing which didn't really want to go after these seats - they didn't see winning as a fruitful exercise - (given today's context I might take the same position).

We reached out to New Action and there was a positive response and thus an alliance was born -- though I do remember some of the ideologues pushing back at a MORE meeting in September of October 2015 that New Action wasn't ideologically kosher enough due to its 12 year alliance with Unity. That winning came second to ideological purity. The majority of MORE at that point was overwhelmingly for the alliance. How things changed by the fall of 2018 and I would say the split in MORE was fundamentally over these kinds of issues.

By the fall it was clear we had some momentum and at this point the MORE sectarian ideologues became concerned enough to jump onto the HS committee, which led to struggles through the fall of 2015 to shunt Mike and Arthur off the ballot, with unmatched levels of skulduggery which we managed to beat back. I kept stressing that Arthur's large school was the key to winning a close vote.

We won that internal battle at the time but the ideologues used their own negative reactions to the victory in the election as an internal organizing tool against Arthur and Mike.

And they literally began their attacks within weeks of winning the high schools in May 2016. But that's a story for another day.

I may even write a play.

Thursday, April 18, 2019

UFT Election Results: Unity the BIG Winner, MORE the Biggest Loser, Solidarity Stays Alive

Mulgrew, the Unity Caucus candidate, received 38,591 votes, or 86.2 percent of the votes cast while Solidarity Caucus candidate Lydia Howrilka received 3,604 votes (8 percent) and Dermot Myrie the candidate of the MORE caucus, got 2,540 votes (5.6 percent).... All 102 seats on the union's Executive Board were won by the Unity caucus........UFT Web site 
My spin - a massive win for Unity and a massive loss for the
opposition even though Solidarity can claim the mantle of the only caucus that shows signs of growth.

Unity won by the biggest margin in years as the folly of 3 opposition caucuses was revealed. The total of Solidarity and MORE was roughly 6000 votes (we don't have New Action since they did not run officers). That Lydia finished second was the big surprise and the poor showing of MORE is making me eat a lot of crow with some former MOREs who predicted this disaster -- kudos to John G and Peter Z. John predicted Solidarity would beat MORE and Peter predicted MORE would finish under 4000 votes. Even he was over optimistic.

And for the first time since 1993, Unity won the high schools unassisted - Wait, Wait -- actually they were assisted by having Arthur and Mike join them and bring many former MORE votes with them to Unity.

I know this puts Solidarity in the titular position of the opposition with the most support but it is a hollow "victory." Sadly, it seems that New Action has faded so far and let's blame MORE's refusal to run with them as a reason. Some of us in the opposition might even join New Action to try to keep it alive.

In 2016 election MORE/New Action had almost 10,600 votes and Portelos running for Solidarity had 1400. 6000 (plus whatever New Action gets) combined this time is a drop in half of what the opposition received just 3 years ago. Sad. Remember - I urged people not to bother running because the outcomes mean something to people. So even if you don't want to troll for votes, people take the ability to get votes seriously even if you don't - yes, I'm talking to the faction in control of MORE who pushed this idea on some fairly inexperienced people and they just wasted 5 months of talking about the election. I bet they will have a victory party.

No one - MORE or New Action - wanted to run with Solidarity because they didn't have a big base. I didn't expect much from them and challenged them to prove they had a base of votes. And they did to some extent in that they finished ahead of all the other opposition groups and now can claim a mantle of the opposition with the most support even if it is minuscule. But they worked real hard to get on the ballot and get votes. Give them credit - let's see if they can build on this outcome. (Frankly, ICE got around that many votes in its first run in 2004 and I thought that was pathetic.)

Now Solidarity beating out MORE is a big thing in the tiny world of the opposition inside the UFT and their 3600 votes was in line with my prediction since I expected them to double their totals from last time especially since they had a slate this time. Showing some growth is essential but it was clear they didn't have enough of a base to make much bigger gains. But no matter what people say, the real race was to beat MORE -

and
-
Shockingly they did. I expected MORE to lose thousands of votes - but MORE dropped so drastically and so quickly. Jia Lee who was the presidential candidate and received 10,700 votes in 2016 ran for VP Special Ed this time and received only 2700 votes to Solidarity's Quinn Zanoni's 3600. Jia's vote totals dropped by 8000 votes and it has nothing to do with her but it does in this sense - she backed all the way the MORE moves that have turned it into a boutique caucus.

Think of it - in 3 years MORE lost 8000 votes. Someone do the % drop math -- from 10,600 to 2,600. Is 75% a rough figure or am I way off?

From what I've been hearing a whole bunch of votes for Solidarity came from people who voted for MORE last time. Let's say 1000 - the difference in their totals. But what happened to the other 6000 votes that the opposition got in 2016 - and also remember that 12000 people did vote against the contract. MORE lost them or even didn't try very hard to get them. And don't forget, they must have had some support from inside the OT/PT unit, so imagine their base in terms of classroom teachers is even smaller.

Here is my first impressions of where MORE lost votes:
Solidarity, Unity, and non-voting.

But watch the spin - MORE will declare victory - that they didn't really try and purposely ran not to win and that there are 2600 people out there to organize for their platform -- just like they organized the 10,600 last time.

All the years of building up to 12000 votes and it all went crashing against the rocks of MORE sectarianism.

At the end of the day, the opposition in the UFT is decimated and Unity Caucus is more empowered than ever. Nice work.

The faction in control of MORE ought to write  book - how to destroy a union opposition and empower the ruling power.

Here is the UFT posting.

Michael Mulgrew re-elected UFT president

UFT Election Report: What I learned - Don't Eat the Cauliflower

Lots of infighting at the ballot count. Claims of paper thickness and other stuff is causing paper jams.--- 3:15 PM, April 18 - message from UFT vote count
The UFT should ask the American Arbitration Association for a rebate. I'm actually glad my wife had me on Passover readiness duty all day today in prep for our 27 guest tomorrow night so I wasn't able to give in to any temptations to go back after a wasted day yesterday -- though I did ask Amy Arundell to  write me a pass just in case I got the itch- she rightly said NO. Let me recount what happened yesterday.

The AAA serves dinner
April 17 - Dinner was served at around 7PM at the American Arbitration Association a few blocks from the UFT after a day of mostly wasteful vote counting. I wouldn't leave until I had this "wonderful dinner" but I finally gave up the ghost at around 8PM with literally no results. With every election cycle the process gets worse. And rumors are the UFT gives the AAA around a half a million bucks to run the election. I think even some of the top officials who were there with us to witness the fiasco might begin to rethink how UFT elections are run, though I wonder why they even bother anymore. I would give the half a million to a fund for an ATR bye out . As James points out, no one would notice anyway -- ICEUFT Blog: UFT ELECTION MERCIFULLY ENDS. 

Here is where the situation stood when I left at 8PM Wednesday when they were still tabulating the functional votes which were in the range of 10,000 and they were up to about 8,000 when I left. They expected to have slate results by 11 PM or later but based on the speed I didn't see how. There were still about 10,000 elem votes (based on how many in 2016, 4500 high school and 2500 middle school. They expected to begin again at 8AM this morning.

I got to the AAA, located in the basement of 120 Broadway at around 12 PM. In the room observing were Mike and Mark from New Action, Erik from Solidarity (Lydia came to relieve him later), Myrie from MORE, an alternating crew of Leroy/Dave Hickey/Howie from Unity, Amy as chair of the election committee, Yasmin who was in charge of the election process

Only about 10,000 retiree votes were counted using two scanners that seemed to come to a stop every minute. We were able to watch the ballots as they were scanned on a big screen. The process was so slow I left and went uptown to pick up some library books, drop them off at my apartment and since I didn't  have an ed notes leaflet prepared for the Delegate Assembly, I took my stash of the April edition of the Indypendent, which I distribute for them down to hand out at the DA. But it was 2:30 and I went back to the vote count and it was still crawling along with the retiree vote which at this point was around 18-20,000 with more to go. 

Then they did the functional which went by like molasses.
From what I saw on the big screen, Unity looked like it was winning the retiree vote by at least 10-1, with New Action pulling some votes and Solidarity too - MORE pulled very little from what I saw in the retirees.

In functional, Unity again was also winning very big -- maybe a little less than 10-1. MORE pulled some more votes here and so did Solidarity while New Action did very little.

At this point I left and finally wrote this up tonight -- and in the midst some real results came in -- reports later in a follow-up.




Mark and Mike from New Action

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Today is Election Day at the UFT - Look at 2016 Outcomes

Francesco Portelos posted the outcomes from 2016 and since we will have results by tonight or tomorrow, it will be worth doing a comparison. Will this election break the pattern of the past 15 years where outcomes were fairly predictable? There are always lessons for the future.

Note in slide 4- over 24,000 retirees votes out of 60,000.
Total non-retiree votes: 28,000 - out of 110,000.
That's the election in a nutshell. Retiree votes always go up -- in fact the 2016 election they topped the limit and were a bit prorated.

Contract impact: There was a lot more unhappiness with the 2014 contract than the 2017 -- will that impact the vote?

The breaking of the opposition: Last time there were two choices on the ballot -- Unity and MORE/New Action - with Solidarity running as individual candidates. This time there will be 4 choices. Will that lead to bigger turnout or less?

The high school vote: Will the total of the 3 opposition votes in the high schools add up to more than the Unity vote? This is complicated somewhat by MORE not running any candidates in this category.

There are probably more issues to dissect but I am going to head in to the AAA at 120 Broadway to check on the vote count. Today is also a delegate assembly and I didn't bother to prepare a leaflet so if I get bored I may just go to a movie.

Here is what Portelos posted on FB:





Tuesday, April 2, 2019

My UFT Election Choices: Duke Breaks Bracket, Ex-MORES In Play on Unity Slate - Yes, My Choices are Personal

An ecclectic group for sure:
5 for Solidarity, 4 for Unity, 3 for MORE
Howrilka, Portelos, Sill, Manning, Brown, De Jesus, Lupkin, Prosen, Hinds, Severenson, Zannoni, Diaz - Below, the reasons for why I voted for whom and why I didn't vote for whom - if you dare to wade through the muck.
People have been emailing asking me and others - Gloria has had numerous requests too - for voting recommendations - not for March Madness but for the UFT election. Today is the big reveal. Warning -  it's a long a tedious read. (I will make my final election voting outcome predictions before April 17.)

Duke, the Unity Caucus of the NCAA loses - a harbinger?

Friday, March 29, 2019

Unitymustgo: Here’s why I say no to MORE

Voting in the 2019 UFT Elections
I'm postponing publishing my list of people I voted for to publish this.
Unitymustgo! -- Here’s why I say no to MORE. Currently there are several posts/ads from MORE on my Facebook stream. Not one of them speaks of fighting for me. They all speak about social justice issues. That’s all well and good, but I believe the primary purpose of a union is to fight to improve the working conditions and benefits of the people who pay them. Period. Do I care about social issues? Sure I do. Are there tons of social issues that affect our students? Yup there are. They affect many of our members to. Do I believe a teacher’s union should speak up about the social issues that affect members and students? Yes, yes I do. But, and here’s the thing, if you think, I think, the real issue(s) I have with our union is that Unity just doesn’t focus enough on social issues, well then you are really woefully out of touch with your fellow members. Perhaps, even more so than Unity. Not to go off on a tangent, but I actually think Unity isn’t so much out of touch with the real daily, grinding, piercing travesties members have to deal with. I think they have made a conscious calculated decision not to do much about any of it. MORE’s messaging makes me think MORE doesn’t get the simple idea, that members who don’t vote aren’t not voting because they are just so frustrated that the UFT just isn’t doing enough about social justice issues. Nor, does MORE seem to get the even bigger and even simpler idea that those members who are out there actually seeking alternative leadership are most definitely not doing so because of social justice issues. HEAR ME Unity. HEAR ME MORE, HEAR me anybody that wants my support. I want my union to focus on me. Period. There is plenty to do to improve the working conditions and benefits of our members. Can someone? Anyone? Just do that. ....comment on "UFT Election Update: I Vote Thrice": 
There's one point about MORE and the reason you don't see the kind of angst from them about the way teachers are treated in schools. Most of them have found "safe" schools and they bring other MOREs in so we have a few clusters of people working in some of the better schools in the city - which allows them the luxury to focus on social justice instead of the fight for daily survival.

Yesterday I published another comment from Unity Must Go, a longtime anti-Unity chapter leader who has supported the opposition for a decade - he seemed somewhat reluctantly to decide to vote for Solidarity:  UFT Elections: Solidarity Picking up Defections from MORE

The problem with Solidarity is that its main boast is a web site, not a presence in the schools. Now if people like Unitymustgo who is a CL with his own constituency goes beyond voting for Solidarity, they might yet become a real caucus with real people doing real things.

Fighting Unity requires being in the schools --  as you can see from the ballot they have 750-800 running -- while many are retirees and staffers for the UFT, many are also chapter leaders and delegates and have constituencies in their schools. The total of 3 caucuses is less than 150.

Is there a life for the opposition after this election? Let's see how many people see things the way Unitymustgo does. I heard a rough straw poll in what has been a strong opposition and pro-MORE school until now where there were a number of people who had voted for MORE now voting for Unity, and not one vote for Solidarity with one vote for New Action.

While UnityMustGo resisted in 2013, he decided to run with MORE in 2016.

When I met with him in his school and we went for lunch during the last election he mentioned that in his district CL meetings everyone seemed to be Unity or Unity supporters. I pointed to a chapter leader in his district who had always been an ICE supporter and ran with ICE - he hadn't realized that. I've always maintained that anti-Unity CLs should use the monthly CL meetings as an organizing tool. But that hasn't happened, even among the so-called militants.

In my mind, he is a prototypical rank and filer any opposition would want to organize as a backbone of challenging Unity in the schools. But - and this is not an accident - MORE doesn't want people like him precisely because of what he said in his comment -- he wants a union to fight for HIM, not social justice. And MORE doesn't want these type of people.

I don't quite agree with him since I feel there needs to be a balance of SJ and teacher rights.

That was the essence of the internal struggle in MORE from day 1 when it was organized -- I felt we - mostly the ICE people - we were SJ people too - and some allies - kept some balance between SJ and bread and butter --  but ultimately we lost the internal battle.

And we lost because an non-elected faction of MORE vigilantes decided to take drastic action against what they viewed as the opposition to their plan to morph more away from a broad tent - the ICE core. I still think there are a number of MORE supporters who have no idea what really occurred. But they seem perfectly happy to not have the rancor internally even at the expense of democracy -- an analogy to what we see generally in politics.

--- but Unity Must GO is right about the MORE messaging. It is purposely designed to not attract him or the mainstream of the UFT but a particular slice of young social justice oriented teachers - it's a dog whistle and the entire election for MORE in not running to win anything in a limited campaign was to have the opportunity to put out those dog whistles in the hope of attracting the left in the UFT. And they have been successful to a limited extent with new people who are fundamentally clueless about the UFT - some still call me for info.

A key event for MORE is the monthly happy hours with teachers from the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) before the MORE meetings -- this has become the main organizing tool of MORE.

So for those who think MORE may be going away, don't bet on it -- there will always be a left in the UFT who will go along with the program put out by MORE. Expect them to operate the same way in the 2022 UFT elections. The problem with the MORE plan is that it actually makes Unity stronger and gives them even less influence - but they don't worry about that -- MORE is about recruitment, not influencing real change.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the exact same scenario played out in 2022. Which is why I advocate throwing in the towel in terms of a formal opposition to Unity - just don't run in elections. And why I support Arthur, Mike and Mindy for running with Unity where they are at least free to advocate - in a limited manner --- but given the alternative what else is there to do? My problem with them is voting the straight Unity slate, endorsing a caucus that has made Unity Must Go so disgusted - and a betrayal of loyal supporters of our blogs like him. At best it is insensitive politically.

I may organize a post-election forum which I will call: What is to be done? (ref, intentional).

Thursday, March 28, 2019

UFT Elections: Solidarity Picking up Defections from MORE

Unitymustgo! has left a new comment on your post "UFT Election Update: I Vote Thrice":

From reading yours and a few other blogs my decision is to just check off Solidarity. As a long time reader I know of whom you speak. My understanding is that person has been minimized. Solidarity seems like the best choice if you want to send a message to Unity. What that message is I have no real idea. Any vote not for Unity is more like one water drop making a ripple in the ocean. Not gonna even be felt by ocean liner Unity. I'm not naive, but I also refuse to give up on the dream of a vital, responsive, open minded union that is actually interested in what it's members have to say. I would never had thunk it, but I'd recommend Solidarity to your readers.
Unity Must Go is a chapter leader in an elementary school who has supported ICEUFT and MORE in the past. In fact he ran with MORE last time. In one of my last attempts to bring some rationality I talked to some of he ideologues about this guy and how people like him are the backbone if we have any hope of changing the UFT. They looked at me like I landed from outer space and shrugged.

This is the kind of activist rank and filer MORE has tossed away. I define an activist not as someone who goes to rallies but as someone who takes on the job of chapter leader despite having a young family and supports the opposition.

I went to his school in 2016 to drop leaflets and to have lunch with him. Assume his school went for MORE last time. This time it will go for Solidarity.

James Eterno urges support for Lydia as president:  VOTE FOR LYDIA HOWRILKA FOR UFT PRESIDENT.
Did he endorse Solidarity outright?

I am going to publish my list of who I am voting for tomorrow.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

UFT Election Update: I Vote Thrice

Hi Norm - I just got my UFT ballot in the mail. I've never received one, and today was perfect timing, because I had it out with someone in the UFT office. They have not responded to my email sent in October, despite me following up every month or so. I may need to start advising young teachers to save their dues for getting their own personal champion rather than have faith in the UFT's ability to even respond to an email within 6 months....
What do you recommend I do with the ballot? Did you have a falling out with MORE?
People have been asking me for UFT voting advice. I am flummoxed. This is where the long-term dangers lie for the UFT - arrogance and ignoring the pleas of people under assault. And I certainly won't tell anyone to vote for MORE. But.....


My teacher friends and neighbors are in California for 6 months and I am taking care of their house and mail. I asked what to do with their ballots -- we forward all their mail - and they told me to decide who to vote for since they usually ask me who to vote for anyway.

This time things are a bit more complicated since there is no slate I would recommend.  However, it does give me a chance to have one of my friends vote for New Action and the other for Solidarity while I in essence toss away my ballot and vote for individual candidates from all 4 slates - Unity too.

Why am I throwing away my ballot? The individual votes are counted -- they have to tear the booklets apart and feed them through the machine and this process delays the count by hours. But they only give us the slate vote totals and that is what gets reported. So those individual votes, which are usually around a couple of hundred people, don't count for much. But this time I have to do it on my ballot.

So, I'm going through the pages of the ballot and voting for people from all caucuses that I like or respect or know. It is tedious work. We have to pick out 48 names from the at-large Ex Bd candidates. Then 750 at most from the AFT/NYSUT convention list - which is easy to do since Unity has 750 running and MORE, Solidarity, New Action COMBINED have less than 150 -- that is why even a combined opposition can't come close to Unity. (The only time I can remember matching them in numbers was around 1980, but I hear from Ellen Fox they did match a few times -- but certainly not close since I became involved in elections again in 2004.)

Well, anyhow -- I will do a follow-up with a list of some of the candidates I voted for and why. I did manage to find a few MOREs that I still like and respect to vote for plus every New Action candidate even if I didn't know them. Plus every Solidarity candidate I know - minus a few that I have had some bad blood with in the past.

Monday, March 25, 2019

UFT Election Predictions: I Have Become Comfortably Numb

....the entire MORE strategy is to issue dog whistles to the left as honey with little interest in the mainstream of the UFT - that explains MORE's election strategy.
Did you hear? UFT election ballots are on the way today. We saw the ads from all the caucuses in the NY Teacher - I laughed out loud at some of them. We know from past results that 70% of UFT members don't give enough of a shit to vote though I've always thought that they have no incentive to vote given the options and the fact that there is nothing at stake. For the first time in 20 years I am not voting slate, but will vote for individuals from all the slates who I like. This in essence invalidates my vote since we only tally slate votes.

I read all sorts of clueless comments from anti-Unity people about how we need to replace the union leadership and how if all the opposition groups united they would defeat Unity. I will be kind and call that dumb.

It really behooves the anti-Unity crowd to educate themselves on the realities. Past performance is an indicator. You don't just over turn decades of voting patterns in one election cycle - unless something so major has happened that the 70% who don't vote suddenly take notice. And despite some hysteria out there in opposition circles, nothing major has happened.

This year, due to 3 tepid opposition groups fighting over some crumbs, there is even less incentive to vote. Plus the 87% YES vote on the contract compared to the reaction to the 2013 contract is a factor in Unity's factor.

Of the 30% who return ballots, about 45-48% are retirees. They are the most satisfied and vote 85% for Unity. Assume about 22,000 of the 60,000 retires vote. Thus we begin the election with Unity: 19,000, Opposition: 3000. Unity got over 40,000 votes in the last election. The opposition around 12,000. Both numbers should drop. It would take an economic crisis threatening pensions to ever get them to go against Unity.

Only 25-27% of non-retirees vote. Unity will win every position with no challenge. Mike and Arthur who helped lead the opposition to victory in the high schools in 2013 are running with Unity - so expect Arthur's school with 300 UFT members to vote Unity, or not vote at all. A major win for Unity. Mike's school has a long history of opposition to Unity and 4 people there are running with MORE, so I still expect this fairly small school to vote for MORE. Mike might get some votes for Unity there, but not many.

There is some irony here. Unity has not been able to win the high schools on its own since 1993 - in 1991 Unity lost both the high schools and middle schools. But even though Unity loses the high schools, it has always been by a slim margin. Unity has been weak in the high school back to the Al Shanker days in the mid-80s. Actually, the high school teachers have pushed back against the school system going back to the 50s and they were the key to organizing the UFT in 1960.

In 2007, 2010, 2013 Unity needed a deal with New Action to win the high schools. When New Action joined with MORE in 2016, Unity lost once again. And if all the opposition had united this time, Unity would have lost the high and possibly the middle schools and I bet the opposition could have made a dent in the elementary schools. The actions of MORE killed that opportunity.

Expect voting for all groups to drop.

The question is by how much.

Unity, knowing the outcome, has barely bothered to campaign - in 2016 they inundated the schools with glossy lit worthy of Eva Moskowitz.

I watch the divisionals - elem, ms, hs. Last time Unity got around 2150 in the high schools, a big jump from their 1585 in 2013. Remember there are 20,000 high school teachers. And the party in power has an enormous number of Unity chapter leaders, so their numbers in HS are pathetic. But they tried harder in the HS and jumped their numbers by about 500 votes. But the MORE/NA votes topped them. And if you toss in the Solidarity 150 the HS are roughly 55% anti-Unity. Imagine if the totals from the 3 caucuses top them again this time. MORE will wear the Scarlett D for Defeat.

In middle schools in 2016 Unity had about 1800 out of a potential 12,000 - the opposition totaled around 1500. Also pathetic -

In elementary they had about 7,000 and the opposition I think did around 2000 -- out of 36,000 potential votes.

Unity will certainly win the functional chapters by a lot - especially the paras. There are over 40,000 functional chapter members and they get around 20 ex bd seats -- all Unity. But Unity will not win the OT/PTs which will go to MORE which jumped on their bandwagon when they voted NO. I hear MORE is putting resources into a mailing to the member of that chapter for the election.Typical limited vision - go for the narrow slice rather than the big enchilada.

A very weak New Action had pinned its hopes on an alliance with MORE but split internally on willingness to run with Solidarity but is now left with a spirited but very limited campaign with about 40 candidates but no officers. They have tried to get their leaflets into schools -- probably the most extensive by far of anyone running.
Given that they are mostly retirees with few people in the schools, their totals from working UFT members will be in the 1000 range - and add another 1000 from retirees who remember New Action from the past. I am tempted to vote for them because I like many of them - especially since I had decades of hostility with them. And they never stop trying what they see as the right thing to do. Post election some of us will sit down and talk though I worry that their strategy might be to make nice with MORE hoping they will take them in next time. I will vote individually for every NA candidate I can but not slate because I want to vote for some people on other slates, including a few Unity - I will list all the candidates I am voting for in a future post. But no candidate for president sends a message that resonates with me. I would have liked to see Jonathan Halabi run and I would have voted for him despite political differences in the past.

Solidarity is viewed as a pariah in some areas of the opposition. I used to see them that way but have changed. But they have not shown very much since the last election but are making a valiant attempt this time. They had about 65 candidates but lost over a dozen-20 candidates due to invalid petitions and defections, not a good sign. They have shown energy in this campaign and ambition but they too have few people in the schools. Last time Portelos had about 1400 votes for president while not running on a slate. But his energy fueled that campaign. This time he has been quieter which may cost votes. Lydia has put a lot of effort in running for president. Given her tenure situation, being willing to take on this task is very brave. I like Lydia but experience does count in UFT politics as it does in the classroom. I said at the ICE meeting that if Jonathan Halabi ran for president - which I thought he might - his knowledge and experience would have made him the best choice.

Can Solidarity build on those 1400 votes - their outcomes in the divisions were around 200-300 though they did better %wise in the middle schools. This time they have slate status so they should do better. But we know votes come based on school contacts. I would be surprised if they get much more than 3000. Doubling the 2016 vote would be a victory.

MORE has the most people in the schools - and they are young and politically active on a number of fronts. Ready to take part in every social justice movement. UFT elections however are not all that exciting. And also given the purges, splits and pushouts, MORE has lost almost all its experienced people who did a lot in the last election. They had no mass leaflet distribution to schools this time. Last time I and a few other retirees did tens of thousands. James alone did 5000.

But I never believe this tactic made a major difference.

But expect their 10,700 vote total -- which included New Action last time - to drop. By how much will be interesting. Some are predicting they will get half the total of last time - but no matter what, the MORE leadership will interpret the outcome as a victory for their strategy - I can't wait to read the spin cycle.

Subtract the New Action factor but add what may be an enthusiastic OT/PT factor -- give them 1000 votes from that chapter. Expect a big drop in the high schools where last time the efforts of Arthur Goldstein and James Eterno brought in hundreds of votes that made the difference in winning the high schools. For a guess, I'll give them 1350-1550. If they get less than 1000, they will look pathetic since most of their members are in the high schools and should at the very least get their own colleagues to vote for them.

In middle schools, there is not much there other than Kevin Prosen - if they come close to the 1200 last time I would be shocked. Probably less than 1000. Same deal in elementary schools -- we had a few strong places last time but not much more. We had a big push in Julie Cavanagh's school with lots of people running. This time I hear nothing. Say 1500 votes in elem.

MORE was the key villain in blowing up the possibility of making this election serious for its own narrow interests. There was less enthusiasm for the elections than the faction in control of MORE believed - the newer and younger members who had not taken  part in elections were I believe manipulated into supporting a strategy of running not to win -- and using the election to get the word out on its strategy of talking about strike preparation by pushing examples of other cities. They think they can strike a spark for future organizing. I think not in the UFT no matter how much they huff and puff - they missed an opportunity though by not uniting instead of dividing people.

I had pushed back against that strategy and I think some in MORE heard my points -- I saw genuine shock on the faces of the MORE election pushers when the vote was 15-10 with 2 abstentions and when the next month even more people said they would not have chosen to run -- this lack of enthusiasm, a threat to the MORE leadership - enough of a threat that they used my blogging about this lack of enthusiasm as an excuse to suspend me for 6 months from meetings and listserves to shut down my voice. What they can't control is MORE members reading Ed Notes - though the idea of them issuing a ban on that would not shock me.

The opposition can never win it all but it could have won a piece

It is clear that Unity had set the rules in such a way that they can't lose by making the Ad Com and the majority of the Ex Bd at-large - meaning even retirees and the 13 functional chapters, which Unity dominates, vote -- other than OT/PT which will vote opposition this time - MORE since MORE has focused on them. This will inflate MORE and may help them cover up their weakness in the rest of the union.

My goal in opposition politics was to hold on to the high schools, take a shot for the middle schools which was very feasible based on the 2016 election and to build a stronger force in the elementary school. Ignore the retirees and functional chapters for now. Show we could win all 3 teaching divisions divisions where retirees can't vote -- win the 7 HS, 5MS, 11 Elem school Ex Bd seats which would give us 25% of the ex bd and a real base to build from.

After MORE blew up this plan I realize that I have wasted my political life in the UFT trying to accomplish this. It will never happen even if MORE reversed itself and tried to unite the opposition. Too much bad blood all around. (I would never work with MORE again as long as the same people are in charge.)

Unity will not just be in power for ever but will also not have even a smidgen of serious opposition. It would take years. I experienced how ICE was founded in 2003/4 and began to fade almost immediately but continued through the 2010 election before giving up the ghost. In essence, what MORE has done is make Unity stronger and more dominant, something they will never own up to.

Teachers for A Just Contract comes back to life to haunt MORE
Many of us who have been active over decades were reminded why when given the option to join TJC in 2003/4 or start a new caucus  - we opted for the latter and formed ICE. We didn't want to be in the kind of restricted and ultimately undemocratic environment TJC offered and is now offering in MORE.

I ran into a guy at the DA last week who was active in the opposition in the 90s and knew TJC very well. I'll paraphrase: "I heard that so and so TJC people are running MORE. They are poison and will destroy MORE." Funny thing is that there is early scuttlebutt that some of the enthusiasm of newer members who bought the TJC bill of goods is waning due to this tepid election where they realize they are running for nothing and with no purpose.

TJC, began in 1993 and finally gave up the ghost in 2012 - I could tell in the 2010 elections they were so weak. Yet the same crew that ran TJC (into the ground) have come back to do the same thing to MORE. They are pulling the wool over the eyes of the recent recruits who are excited but will come to see the same strategy that let to TJC's demise will operate inside MORE.

If you want an example of the dumb decisions, based on ideology not reality, the MORE leaflet at the DA last week took its entire back page to put together a resolution condemning Mulgrew's signing a letter urging Amazon to come back.

I agree that making nice with anti-union Amazon is problematic -- but to think that that issue in any way takes priority over all the other issues in the schools is an example of how out of touch the MORE leadership is with reality. It is an example of naked opportunism -- a dog whistle to try to attract the left in the UFT, not an organizing tactic. In fact, if some left UFT members who were anti-Amazon get attracted they will soon see the sectarian control over MORE and won't stay around for long. In fact, the entire MORE strategy is to issue dog whistles to the left as honey with little interest in the mainstream of the UFT - that explains MORE's election strategy.

And MORE presidential candidate Dermott Myrie's choosing to use the question period to ask Mulgrew about the Amazon issue over all other issues in the UFT is an example of MORE Folly. I feel sad for Myrie who I used to like and respect when he first came to MORE but has fallen into the trap of ideological frenzy.

It's a sad day in the UFT when Mulgew looks like the best candidate for UFT president.

Saturday, January 19, 2019

#UFTElections: Busy Work for Caucus Members as Einstein Def of Insanity is Met

Despite my anti-election stance, as I said the other day on this blogI will sign all petitions- if asked. I'm not volunteering unless someone asks me. Well, actually, there are a few petitions I won't sign if they were among the people who I've witnessed stabbing people in the back. (But that story is for another time.)

I was asked to go to a petition signing party by a caucus and I will be doing that. I signed a few petitions at the DA the other day.

But let's face it -- what a waste of time.

The amount of emails and social energy and physical energy going on is over the top.

And boy are they all so excited to actually have something to do that seems productive. Wow. Petitioning. Something we can get people to do and make them think they are making a difference.

As I said - busy work.

They have the illusion that they can get people who have not been active to get involved in the election and stay involved after the election as a way to build up a caucus. In every election I've seen maybe one or two people come floating along and stay active. For a bit. Maybe. At that rate, by the 2031 election they will have a dozen.

With all the oxygen in the room having been sucked up by the minutia of the UFT elections over the past few months, the opposition caucuses, MORE, New Action, Solidarity have descended full bore into the black hole of the 4 week petitioning process which will end on the eve of the mid-winter break in mid-February.

Then, when they return from the break they can spend the next 6 weeks campaigning to split the anti-Unity vote in reality, in competition more with each other than with Unity. (I will make my election total predictions before the vote count on April 17.)

I made my pitch to MORE at a meeting in November to not run due to the futility and wasted hours that could be used to actually doing organizing and building up capacity for the future.

But the experienced hands who had been with the old and defunct TJC caucus of the first decade of the century wanted to run and sold the election to the many newbies in MORE who had never taken part in an election before - and with the same election line TJC used to get so few votes in the 2004, 07 and 10 elections. (Full disclosure -- ICE was also part of the slate with TJC and didn't do any better - but at least I learned my lessons.)

History, unfortunately, does repeat itself. 

As Einstein (may have) said ----- insanity.

Afterburn

The other day I was chastised by a few people in MORE for being too "negative" on the elections. Well, for them here's a
Feel better?

Friday, January 18, 2019

Splainin' the Goldstein/Schirtzer Caucus Decision to Run With Unity

While I (Norm) would not have made the same choice Mike and Arthur did and I won't vote for them, in the context of what has happened to the opposition I fully understand their decision -- I feel better having two allies on the EB who I hope will raise issues of mine and others concerns that would never be put forth if they weren't there......
Arthur and Mike -- the Goldstein/Schirtzer caucus -- have no interest in doing what the rest of the opposition is doing --- wasting 4 months running on the UFT election treadmill to nowhere. ... The reality is that their position on the EB in terms of pushing the union is weaker than it was when they won as part of the opposition defeating Unity in head to head voting..... Norm again
.... the new caucus of Three Unity Water Carriers (try to look independent but kiss Unity's butt all the way).... The Unity water carriers even get the convention trips. They can suck up even more.... Anonymous comment, UFT Election Petition Day at Delegate Assembly


My response: 
In effect, anonymous people who bitch about Unity but don't jump into the waters in fighting them are the real water carriers. Arthur fought them in the open for 13 years and Mike for 6 years. So let them carry some water for Unity while you sit back and do nothing. And don't tell me how afraid you are. They at least have a record of standing up (publicly). 
In his latest post Arthur Goldstein justifies running with Unity Caucus - - Moving Forward.

I want to congratulate Mike Schirtzer and Arthur Goldstein on their election to the high school Ex Bd in the upcoming UFT election ending April 17, 2019. And yes, they will also be going to the NYSUT/AFT conventions where I expect them to be free to take any positions they want instead of carrying the Unity water -- and if I'm there I will be monitoring them.

If there is any sure bet, this one is it, so if you have extra pension money to bet, pony up. The difference in the election in 2016 that won MORE/NA were the votes from Arthur's 300 UFT members who supported him on whatever slate he ran on. While their vote totals will be low, as Unity's has always been in the HS and if we add together the total high school votes of the opposition they might be close, the fact that 3 caucuses are all running alone assures Arthur and Mike of victory.

Some MOREs in 2016 clearly resented Arthur for his independence and tried to paint the victory then as a win for social justice unionism as opposed to the organizing work by Arthur and James Eterno in the Queens high schools, which had the highest voting totals of all the boroughs by far. Even Unity's Howie Schoor agreed with this assessment. (This internal dispute in MORE in May 2016 was the opening shot in the wars to come after the election.)

Over the past year or so, or since the Janus ruling, Arthur has bent over backwards trying not to provide the enemies of unions ammunition that can be used to get people to leave the union. His decision is based mostly on the Janus situation but also slams MORE for helping to push him and Mike into the decision they made.

I can see the point. Once you see no hope for the future of an opposition that can have real influence instead of functioning as a club trying to lobby the UFT leaders, but want to maintain some level of influence, what exactly do you do?

But let's be clear. Arthur and Mike only got on the Ex Bd because a group of us in MORE set up a democratic process for choosing candidates - MORE had 4 out of 7 HS EB and then when New Action could only come up with 2 candidates, we had a 5th - who ended up coming to only 2 meetings before quitting - that's another story altogether.

They would never have had the influence and impact they did if there wasn't a caucus like MORE to put them in a position to win the election. So if I see them acting as if they won the high school seats in 2016 as individuals instead of part of the work of a caucus I smack them down. We might trash the current version of MORE but not the 2016 version. (And I will tell the full story of how we went from there to here after the election.) And I will point out that without Unity Caucus they still wouldn't be on the board. The reality is that their position on the EB in terms of pushing the union is weaker than it was when they won as part of the opposition defeating Unity in head to head voting.

With that option of running to win being closed off and even if they ran with New Action or Solidarity they would still not end up on the Ex Bd, they chose to be on the Ex Bd and still have a voice, even if it is somewhat muted -- no matter what they say.

Some compare their decision to the one New Action made in 2003 to run with Unity endorsement in the 2004, 07, 10 and 13 elections before coming back to the opposition in 2016.

Absolutely no comparison. In 2003, New Action was still the leading opposition and if they had run alone they still would have won the high schools. By 2007, they had lost so much credibility, they could never win alone without joining with the other groups - remember - ICE came into being partly as a response to the NA decision and TJC went from being a fringe groups into an electoral caucus - seeing an opening due to the NA defection.

Now we are in a situation where there is no chance for any of the 3 caucuses running to win anything. MORE in fact is not even going to run for the high school ex bd positions.

Arthur and Mike -- the Goldstein/Schirtzer caucus -- have no interest in doing what the rest of the opposition is doing --- wasting 4 months running on the UFT election treadmill to nowhere. And they look at this election as a holding pattern. If the opposition ever makes sense they will be back there.


And don't forget, Arthur is the chapter leader of a large high school with 300 members. His priority is not to some ideal of opposing Unity but to address the needs of his chapter. So for those of you who want to snipe at him from an often anonymous position, stand up and be counted if you are so opposed to Unity.

Remember - Arthur's blog came into being around 2005 and that contract pushed him into opposition mode and he soon joined us in ICEUFT - he even ran with us once but also made it clear -- he doesn't run to lose and if there is no chance he won't bother running to make a point. That was why I didn't even ask him to run for MORE in 2013 - with New Action on the Unity line I felt we had no chance. The Unity totals came in so low in the high schools that without the 450 New Action totals, we would have had a chance.

Thus, in 2016, James, Arthur, Mike and I hatched a plan to go after winning the high schools even if NA remained with Unity -- a plan that would have failed. But the other part of our plan was to woo New Action into an alliance -- we had seen lots of signs their deal with Unity was fraying. And our plan, despite some internal opposition from some MOREs -- the very same people who have taken control -- we executed the plan.

Mike, who will be issuing his own statement soon which we will publish, is a newer recruit to the opposition -- since the beginning of MORE - he wasn't part of the planning group but was on board from the beginning. His politics didn't quite mesh with the rest of MORE's often didactic and rigid reactions to organizing and ideologicalizing. (Word is my creation.) They were clearly nervous about putting Mike - and Arthur - on the Ex Bd since they knew they couldn't control them. But the democratic process in MORE won out. This time MORE came up with a better way -- just have a small group choose the candidates without democracy.

The campaign in Mike's school, Leon Goldstein, whose chapter leader Kit Wainer, has been a 30 year oppositionist as a member of TJC and now MORE, will certainly be interesting. The school has been a long time bastion of the opposition - at least the TJC wing --- a sure bet if there is one to vote anti-Unity. And I bet it still is. But Mike, who Kit brought into the movement, will be campaigning in opposition to Kit and MORE this time and things may get sticky. Kit is one of the leaders of the recent moves MORE has made in a new direction, aligning the group along the lines of the old TJC positions. Mike pushed back against this move even before he left MORE.

While I would not have made the same choice Mike and Arthur did and I won't vote for them, in the context of what has happened I fully understand their decision -- I feel better having two allies on the EB who I hope will raise issues of mine and others concerns that would never be put forth if they weren't there.