I have faith in Camille Eterno running the UFT better than Mulgrew has. Insiders tell us he has even lost the confidence of many in Unity -- and even Unity retirees -- look at the opt out numbers -- 64k for all union retirees, probably many in the UFT. Will opt-outers who would have to pay almost $200 a month extra for what they were getting for free still vote Unity? A 50-50 split would be a win for United for Change. Word out of some Unity people is even they do not object to Camille as many know her. Look for more split ballots this time than usual.
In the past I discounted split ballots. But in a close election, individual rather than slate votes might push some people over. So Imagine a close election and say Camille gets a few hundred votes from split ballots and you can end up with a mixed AdCom and even a mixed Ex Bd. Actually that might be better for the union than winner take all. Or it could descend into the Republican vs Dem war where the Unity people try to sabotage Camille. Anyway, interesting thoughts for we wonks.
My other thoughts are that it is interesting that Elem VP Karen Alford is the UFT spokesperson here. I like Karen as to a lot of people. I met Karen on a charter school committee Randi formed in the late 90s chaired by then considered Randi successor and Elem VP Michelle Boden who a few years later disappeared to run the UFT charter school in favor of Mulgrew --- Randi's biggest mistake among many. Many of us really like Boden. The point I am making here is that bringing Alford into public light is a sign of possibly being considered as a Mulgrew successor - especially if this election is a disaster for Unity- and a disaster would mean UFC getting over 40% of the total vote and making serious inroads which would set them up for winning the next time and would necessitate Mulgrew's removal -- but in dictatorships even with disaster looming that is not all that easy. HSVP Janella Hinds right now is considered by some even in the opposition to be the most likely choice but maybe Karen is in the chase. More fun for us UFT wonks.