Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Leftists Get Schooled by Marianne in Organizing Working Class Into Broader Coalitions

The lack of strategy and misguided purity is so beyond unworkable that the average person cannot even relate to the positions the left is taking.... Alessandra Biaggi in response to DSA pulling support for AOC

Ocasio-Cortez, Once an Outsider, Takes Center Stage at Convention

Full speech

 Let's be careful about branding the "left" as monolithic as Biaggi and many others tend to do -- even I do it without thinking. I usually say "certain segments of the left."....Norm

Just Win Baby, Win! ... Al Davis

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

I get a high-five by a retired NYC fireman in a hot yoga class over the RA victory in the chapter election. Of course he and his pals all know about the NYC Retirees and the chief organizer Marianne Pizzitola. 

I've been getting get-well calls from many people and one of the more interesting ones was from an old oppo war-horse CL and UFT Exec Bd member, a hard-core lifetime leftist who retired a long time ago. He is one of the 300 newly elected delegates in the RA chapter election. And of course he has followed the Medicare story.

He said something so interesting. That Marianne Pizzitola, who came out of nowhere and is far from a leftist, has taught the left a lesson on how to organize a broad base of working class and beyond, uniting left and right in the battle. Knowing the left as I do (and I consider myself part of the left), that will be a lesson unlearned. On much of the left, ideology trumps practicality and often, winning.

Yes, sometimes winning is important. I remember certain segments of the left making the case against trying to win in UFT or NYSUT elections as being a waste of time. With the big retiree win in the UFT, views may be changing with a unique opportunity to be in serious contention for leadership of the UFT for the first time in its history. A key question is how far will some segments on the left go to mess it up by pushing for their particular ideology even if that reduces the chances of winning. I know that in Retiree Advocate, we knew we were trying to build a winning coalition based on the healthcare issue and avoided getting into ideological entanglements. Thus, our 300 elected delegates have a broad range of political views.

Some on the left are beginning to look askance at some of their fellows and dames as the Biaggi (not a hard core lefty) says above. 

Shockingly, there are still so-called leftists who often line up on the right who claim Trump is more the peace candidate than Biden --- do they actually believe this guy is not lying about everything? Yes, some claiming to be leftists can also be naive.

I am still a member of DSA because left politics (and accompanying infighting) interests me. You know the old joke -- put 2 of them in a room and get 3 groups. Splitting into sects and factions seems to be endemic.

But all too often some elements in DSA, a conglomeration of just about every left sect with numerous caucuses, seem off the rails. Remember how they cancelled Jamaal Bowman for daring to visit Israel on a fact-finding mission? When it was clear that right winger George Latimer backed by AIPAC was way ahead, DSA reversed itself but too late to make a difference.

Inside the UFT, we saw MORE, a segment of the left, sit out the TRS election because they heard a baseless ideological-based rumor about a candidate. "Better Unity"? In essence, the message. Or we on the left don't really care about winning but about making a point. Despite that the non-Unity candidate still got one third of the vote. 

With upcoming UFT elections, will we see an ideological war break out inside oppo forces or will we see a broad front inclusive enough to defeat Unity.

And by the way, AOC made the most dynamic speech last night at the convention. You can see her future as the heir to Bernie while DSA will remain sanctimonious. 

--------

Another segment of the DSA cancelled Adolf Reed, Jr. Reed who focuses on class more than race and that is a big cancel on the left.

The cancellation of a speech reflects an intense debate on the left: Is racism the primary problem in America today, or the outgrowth of a system that oppresses all poor people?

Adolph Reed is a son of the segregated South, a native of New Orleans who organized poor Black people and antiwar soldiers in the late 1960s and became a leading Socialist scholar at a trio of top universities.

Along the way, he acquired the conviction, controversial today, that the left is too focused on race and not enough on class. Lasting victories were achieved, he believed, when working-class and poor people of all races fought shoulder to shoulder for their rights.

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

UPDATED 8/29/24 : Who Gets Your COPE Money? New Action Goes Beneath the Covers - Parts 1-4

Some illuminating work from David Ginsburg at the New Action site on where COPE money goes. Here are links to parts 1, 2, 3 with a 4th part to come which I will add to this post. I copied selectively from Part 1 for key recipients, with links to each part for further reading. We've always called for a more open reporting from the UFT to members, like this info could be in the never read NY Teacher, but it might actually get more people to read it before lining their bird cages.

Norm

Here is a link to part 4:

PART IV (COMPLETE LIST)

8/14/24

The breakdown below of the 10 largest recipients of our various union funds alleviates some of the mystery as to who benefited most from our contributions from 2022 and 2023. This article is not meant to be an exposé by any means; it is simply meant to help our membership see where our money is going because we deserve to know. We are in no way encouraging members to cancel their union dues and/or COPE donations. Our union needs our support in order to thrive... David Ginsberg

Contributions: 2022 American Federation of Teachers: $69,700  2022 Voice of Teachers for Education: $69,700  2022 United Federation of Teachers: $47,100

Governor Hochul is the first individual to make this list and she does so in a big way, bringing in nearly $200,000 from our teachers’ unions, including nearly $50,000 directly from the UFT. Despite all the money teacher unions have given over to Hochul (both directly and through Super PACs), it has been difficult to ascertain whether or not she appreciates our support. For the sake of this article, we will leave the politics out of it and focus strictly on her policies regarding public schools.

Mayoral Control: Despite an immense amount of pushback from educators, parents, and even democratic legislators, Governor Hochul was committed to extending mayoral control for Eric Adams, a notorious enemy of public education, for the next four years. A ruling came down that mayoral control would be extended for two years.  

Students and Social Media: In June 2024, Hochul passed the Stop Addictive Feeds Exploitation (SAFE) for Kids Act into law, which “prohibits social media companies from pushing ‘addictive’ algorithm-driven feeds to anyone under 18 without parental consent” (source: uft.org). Hochul also passed the New York Child Data Protection Act, which “prevents social media platforms from collecting data on children ages 12 and younger without parental consent and from children age 13 and over without informed consent.” 

Charter Schools: In 2023, Hochul revealed her FY 2024 budget and it was a blow to public education. Hochul reopened 22 closed charter schools (AKA zombie charters) throughout New York State; 14 of which were located in New York City. This was actually a decrease from Hochul’s original proposal, “which could have allowed more than 100 charter schools to open in New York City.” The UFT, who had backed Hochul without seeking input from its general membership, was not pleased. Do not be fooled by the letters next to candidates’ names. Pay attention to their actions.

Smaller Class Sizes: On September 8, 2022, Governor Hochul signed the class size bill into law that would reduce class sizes for NYC schools. While it remains to be seen how willing the City will be to enact these laws, Hochul’s support is certainly appreciated.

Funding: On the surface, the governor seems like an ally. After all, the governor originally approved $825 million (2.4%) in additional funding for New York State schools for FY 2025, $340 million of which would be going to NYC schools  However, if you look past the headline, a more grim picture quickly appears.

We can start with the fact that both City and State were expecting more money under Hochul’s original proposal. NYS had anticipated a $1.3 billion increase in funding, a difference of about $500 million from what the governor proposed. Additional funding for NYC schools was short $131 million from what city officials were estimating. These cuts occurred because of Hochul’s approved budget, which introduced two underhanded changes that are extremely detrimental to school aid – a change in the Foundation Aid formula and a change to the “save harmless” contingency, both of which you can read about in this excellent article by Julian Shen-Berro of Chalkbeat.

Hochul’s first change disrupts the formula for calculating Foundation Aid. Instead of using rate of inflation on a year-by-year basis, Hochul decided to determine funding by using the average rate of inflation over the last 10 years. Given our soaring inflation over the last few years, changing the funding formula to use a 10-year average decreases the amount of funding our schools receive.

The second change was just as subversive as the first. Hochul sought to essentially put an end to the “Save Harmless” contingency that ensures that schools will not lose funding if their enrollment drops. “Save Harmless” (also called “Hold Harmless”) has been enforced for decades. Liz Rozenberg of City & State New York explains that if Hochul gets rid of this provision that has served as a lifeline for many schools, “50% of the 673 districts that receive foundation aid will lose funds” Funnily enough, Hochul received so much pushback from both sides of the aisle on this issue that she removed her proposal to end “Save Harmless” a couple of months ago (more info here), so it will not appear in the FY 2025 budget. 

Teacher Recruitment: In 2023, Hochul signed state legislation to “spur teacher recruitment – with a focus on increasing diversity – through the state.” Hochul pointed out that New York State needs to add nearly 200,000 teachers over the next decade “to meet workforce needs.” We always hear about and witness teacher shortages firsthand in our schools, so any push towards increasing those numbers is a good thing.

As you can see, Hochul has done some good things and some terrible things for public schools and educators. Is she worth the political donations she has received? You decide.

10. Carl E. Heastie: $51,125

Contributions: 2022 NY State United Teachers: $25,000  2023 VOTE COPE (NYSUT’s non-partisan action fund): $1,125  2023 NYS United Teachers: $25,000

Heastie is the Speaker of the New York State Assembly, which may explain why he received more than double the donations of the next highest individual legislator. Heastie is a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to educational policy. According to this New York Times article from 2017, Heastie supported an extension of mayoral control, but refused “to bend to the Senate’s demands to increase the number of charter schools in the state as a condition to extend mayoral control of the city’s schools.” Heastie continues to support mayoral control, which has become an increasingly contentious issue during Eric Adams’ tenure. 

On the other hand, Heastie was supportive of the class size reduction act, which should serve as a benefit to students and teachers, assuming there are no detrimental caveats. The long term plan to decrease the maximum allowable number of students per class sounds like a great idea, although it remains to be seen if the City will actually abide by all of its stipulations.

On other issues, Heastie seems to be playing the fence. When asked about Hochul’s proposed changes to the Foundation Aid formula, Heastie said, “We would, of course, make sure the districts are whole, but we are open to re-examining the Foundation Aid formula. But we want to make sure that our rural and suburban districts aren’t harmed by any proposal.” Any type of concession that would favor Hochul’s agenda would be a tragic mistake that would take away major funding from our public schools. 

14C. Melinda Katz: $25,000

Contributions: 2022 United Federation of Teachers: $10,000  2023 United Federation of Teachers: $15,000

Melinda Katz is the current District Attorney for Queens County. Katz previously served as Queens Borough President and held positions as an NYC Councilwoman (2002-2009), and as a member of the New York State Assembly (1994-1999). Katz has proven to be friendly towards our union and public education in general. In 2008, Katz co-sponsored a resolution to “reform city school planning to better address the problem of overcrowding.”

In 2017, when 3,500+ students, teachers, parents, and alumni signed a petition to remove Interim Acting Principal Rosemarie Jahoda from Townsend Harris H.S., Katz stepped up by writing a letter to former Chancellor Carmen Fariña in support of their cause (source: Chalkbeat). Jahoda was ousted two months later. 

17. Letitia James: $24,000

Contributions: 2022 VOTECOPE (NYSUT): $10,000  2023 VOTECOPE (NYSUT): $14,000 

One of the most notable names on this list, James is the current Attorney General for the State of New York. James and NYSED Commissioner Betty Rosa have made a concerted effort to further diversity, equity, and inclusion requirements (DEI) for public schools (James, Rosa DEI letter). James and Rosa also threatened schools with lawsuits should they make enrollment difficult or impossible for migrant students (source: NY Post).

In 2016, when she served as NYC Public Advocate, James sued the New York City Education Department for the failure of SESIS, a computer system meant to track students with disabilities (source: NY Times). According to the lawsuit, “children (were) deprived of necessary assistance and the city lost out on hundreds of millions of dollars in Medicaid reimbursements” because of the system’s shortcomings. SESIS often deleted student information and was unable to provide data on IEPs. In the meantime, SESIS is still around, although it will supposedly be replaced at some point.

James has also filed several lawsuits against charter schools over the years. In 2014, James pushed a lawsuit to “block the co-location of charter schools with existing district schools” (source: Brian Lehrer Show). Two years later, James filed a civil rights suit against Success Academy for failing to identify and provide adequate services for students with disabilities in an attempt to drive the students from their network of schools (source: NY Post).

Despite James’ lawsuits, former attorney general candidate, Zephyr Teachout, didn’t seem to think James went far enough. Teachout wanted to implement a larger investigation into the hedge fund managers pushing for charter expansion. Teachout, a former special education teacher’s aide, named names of billionaire supporters of charter schools.

20. Robert Jackson: $19,800

Contributions: 2022 VOTE COPE (NYSUT): $19,800

Senator Jackson represents the 31st District of New York. In 1992, as President of Community School Board 6 in Manhattan, Jackson led a lawsuit against the State of New York in order to get equitable funding for NYC students. Jackson felt NYC students weren’t receiving proportionate funding, and he was right. Despite comprising 39% of the student population of New York State, they were only receiving 32% state education aid (source: Baruch case study). 

In 2008, Jackson, then serving in New York City Council’s 7th District, co-sponsored the same resolution to reform city school planning to address overcrowding as Melinda Katz (see above). 

Most recently, to the benefit of all Tier 6 members, Jackson served as the primary sponsor on a bill that amended the calculation of our Final Average Salary (FAS). Now, our three highest consecutive years of earnings will be used to calculate our FAS instead of our five highest consecutive years. In other words, future retirees can expect a little bit more money when they receive their pensions.

Furthermore, Jackson is an advocate for public schools. In 2022, pro-charter super PAC, New Yorkers for a Balanced Albany, spent nearly $100,000 in an effort to defeat Jackson in his re-election bid. Jackson still managed to trounce his opponent, Angel Vasquez, “a former teacher, who later worked as a deputy political director for the United Federation of Teachers.”

FOLLOW THE MONEY: WHICH LEGISLATORS BENEFIT MOST FROM OUR UNIONS? – PART II (David Ginsberg)

This article is the second installment in a multi-part series. For the first installment, see here.

 

FOLLOW THE MONEY: WHICH LEGISLATORS BENEFIT MOST FROM OUR UNIONS? – PART III (David Ginsberg)

This article is the third installment in a multi-part series. For the first installment, see here. For the second, see here.

Please check back for our next (and last) installment in this series where we will provide a complete list of those who received political donations during fiscal years 2022 and 2023.

 

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

What it will take to Change the Leadership in the 2025 UFT Election? ? Build it and they will come, and if they don't come be very worried

Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2024

The prospect of defeating the 62 year Unity Caucus machine in a UFT election may seem like a field of dreams, but breaks in the Unity facade after the recent retiree, para and TRS elections (UFT's 3 Consequential Elections) offer glimmers of hope. But only glimmers.

Is there enough anti-leadership buzz at the teacher level in the schools similar to what we saw in the retiree and para chapter elections this  past spring? Did similar uprisings take place at the recent school chapter elections or was it the same old, same old? 

I haven't a clue. There is an every 3rd year turnover year and Unity Caucus tries to incorporate new CL as soon as they can and subject them to their own internal propaganda machine to make sure they don't drift to the opposition. CLs know they need some level of support from the Dist Reps (who are the main recruiters) and are often reluctant to get involved with oppo if they even know they exist (oppo footprint is fairly small). In fact many new CLs don't even know what Unity is. The DR line is: Psssst, do ya want some free trips to conventions or a PM staff position?

Thus the opposition has never been able to reach very deep into the schools and when election time comes we know that having a strong voice in a schools advocating for the oppo and getting out the vote during the election directly affects the vote totals. The standard method the oppo has used of racing around to hundreds of schools where there are no contacts and stuffing mail boxes has had very little effect on vote totals. Most of this work has been done by the active caucuses and their supporters. 

That has never been enough and I maintain will never be enough (other than in high schools which no matter the caucus over the past 40 years has almost always voted oppo). I've been arguing that unless this base of an active oppo voice expands way beyond the current caucus outreach, Unity will continue to win at the middle and elementary school levels. Even if we won an election due to retiree votes but lose the bulk of the school vote, it would be a weak win and a strong win is necessary to transform the UFT. (In Chicago and LA, there were strong wins and no retiree votes.)

We might know more at the October 16 first DA of the year or at a September chapter leader meeting. Leadership always gets a head start by organizing borough CL meetings at the end of this month. I suggest that people who want to build a winning team try to reach out at these meetings and test the waters.

What I term "the usual suspects" (TUS) in the opposition seem a bit too optimistic for my taste, with some discounting the difficulties of putting together a winning coalition and relying on the same old, same old. I sense that they think putting together similar coalitions as in the past will work this time under the new conditions based on recent election outcomes. I'm the Debbie Downer in that sea of optimism. I'm looking for the unusual suspects.

I've been posting in this issue recently 

and have received push back from some of TUS, many of whom are long-time activists in the opposition, with the major disagreements coming from the caucus people who think my calls for broader participation in the process of organizing is disparaging the work of caucuses. 

That is misinterpreting my position. 

I do think active caucuses that actually want to win the election (not always true in the past - see 2019 election and MORE Caucus) must be a necessary component of any effort to unseat Unity. The question is what is left of the 7 groups from 2022 that are still active? ICE without James and Solidarity without Lydia are dormant. 

So, we have Retiree Advocate, New Action and MORE, and from what we hear there are factions within MORE that either want to run alone as they did in 2019 or not run at all so they can focus on their agenda, though the majority seem to want to not miss the boat in case the oppo does win. We don't know yet if MORE will be on board. So what is left of UFC? NAC and RA, which itself is cross-fertilized with NAC.

And then there is a growing list of open and behind the scenes Unity defectors -- at least at the school level - call them the Unity Light Underground Caucus. 

Plus consider that there are independents who do not want to be connected to a formal caucus but might be interested in playing a role in the election.

I have disparaged the process of caucuses in the past, even my own caucuses because the process of operating a caucus bogs down the ability to act -- I won't get into details but I no longer have the patience to wait for the caucus process to play out in an election campaign. 

The democratic process caucuses operate under sometimes are not so democratic as power is distributed to a few at the top no matter how "democratic" they supposedly are. I know, because at times I have been one of those few. Most people who sign up for a caucus do not want to do much heavy lifting on a regular basis and power flows to those who do.

So fundamental decisions in the caucuses are mostly made by a few people and putting these few people in control over the election process shuts out potential voices of the rank and file.

The 2022 UFC coalition followed this pattern and I keep contending that the actual vote totals in each division (other than retirees) fundamentally didn't change from the 2016 election where MORE and New Action teamed up. 

Supposedly with 7 groups involved in 2022 one would have expected a surge in votes for the opposition. Instead we saw the % go up due to Unity drops in votes but the oppo didn't pick up those votes. Even in HS which we won, the total votes for oppo went up only by 300 votes (2650) over 2016 despite a massive focus and blitz on member mail boxes. There are almost 20k high school teachers and the poor totals show a failure to GOTV in significant numbers even in schools where UFC members were located. 

The entire process involved relatively few people in the negotiations though of course the caucus members may have been involved to some extent, and relatively few people actually active in the campaign (more were involved in the petitioning, which is always draining). Last time the 3 major caucuses were Solidarity, New Action and MORE, with ICE joining in and the Eternos playing a prominent role. And there were other groups and individuals involved in the UFC organizing committee. And UFC did run 400 people but relatively few of those played an active role in the election.

A process where caucus leaders decide on platform, candidates, and election strategy behind closed doors and then spring it all on the membership leaves the latter in a position of not being involved other than being asked for their votes. The failure to involve a broader coalition beyond TUS will keep the election limited to the outreach each caucus has -- limited outreach that does not go very deep into the schools. Not a winning strategy.

A new paradigm must be found that runs deep into schools beyond where TUS reside and engages more of a rank and file, not only to vote, but to get involved at ground zero of a campaign. I will repeat: Relying on caucuses to plan and run a UFT election campaign ends up being in the hands of a few people who become the dominate players and deciders in the election, a process that excludes 99% of UFT members other than asking for their votes.

I'm urging a big reach-out to the vast unknown of the rank and file to check the pulse to see if something similar to retirees and paras is brewing with teachers. Unlike past elections this one can be a serious attempt to change the UFT leadership. Is there's a buzz out there with people stepping forward who would be factors in organizing in their schools and districts? Or the usual apathy? If so, Unity may have nothing to worry about.

There needs to be deep roots into the schools and not just the surface roots the caucuses offer in order to win the entire election and dislodge Unity once and for all.

And if that happens? Keep an eye on how a winning coalition transitions from challenging Unity to running the UFT. I hope I'm around to watch it happen.

 

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Progressives Celebrate Walz, Pushback on Shapiro Who Was a Corp and anti-pub ed fave

The Dem Party Centrists did not win this one for a change. Harris shows a willingness to defend progressive policies instead of running away from them. Feeding kids and better healthcare are good things. 

While his background was tailor-made for moderate voters, his policies as governor have been firmly liberal, reflecting what his allies call “prairie populism.” He signed into law a Democratic wish list of bills on marijuana, paid family leave, abortion rights and gun control, something Ms. Harris highlighted in her announcement of him as the pick. Republicans call him a left-winger in homespun clothing....nyt

Just as the broad-based Dems and associates have engaged in wild enthusiasm over the Harris ascendancy, today the progressive wing of the party, relieved it was Shapiro, seemed overjoyed at Walz.

I'm tired of Dems playing it safe. Go for the gusto. Here is recent NYT take:

Monday, August 5, 2024

Mulgrew Enters Co-Pay Heaven as Retirees lose case - We need a new law and a union that backs us instead of the city

UFT Unity’s pride and joy, Michael Mulgrew, loves him some co-pays. Every time the city threatens a premium, he just asks, “Where can I add a co-pay?” You might as well have a premium, in some ways. Except the way Mulgrew does it is more a tax on the sick. ..... How can they pay back the 600 million a year, forever, they exchanged for the three year 2018 contract? They planned to dump the retirees into an Advantage plan, or make them pay protection money to keep real Medicare. But now they need to get their paws into the pockets of retirees some other way.....Arthur at Union Matters,  The Mulgrew Tax

 

How much money have the law suits save you from the various Mulgrewcare taxes? I'm mailing another check today:

Donation ONLY address is:
 NYC ORGANIZATION OF PUBLIC SERVICE RETIREESC/o JSH Accounting PO Box 143538Fayetteville, GA 30214

Monday, Aug. 5, 2024

I've been to so many doctors since March and had so many blood-tests, CT scans, endoscopies, etc and now facing 6 months of chemo twice a month, if I had to pay even $15 for every visit and test I'd be out a lot of money and will be starting Jan. 1 when co-pays will be back after the city and GHI rewrote the contract that had made co-pays illegal for retirees. That law suit has saved me and other retirees who need numerous doctor visits some serious money. That's why I'm sending the

Mulgrew's silence speaks volumes. He must be partying with his fellow Unity Caucus slugs who bow down to support any position he puts before them, even if he leads them off a cliff, which he actually may be doing.

You have to be observant at to the carefully parsed language UFT and AFT leaders use - they talk about Medicare and Medicare Advantage by purposely mixing them up. When they talk about Medicare they really mean MedAdv which has been a fundamental project of both parties but Republicans don't have a base to cater to so if they take over we will all be facing MedAdv. Dems can't just easily throw us under the bus, though Mulgrew and Randi tried mighty hard. The UFT Retiree vote tossed them a curveball as big as the Harris replacing Biden has thrown at Trump.

Here is Marianne's video report on the court decision

And her article in The CHIEF LEADER

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Ravitch on the potential horror of Josh Shapiro gov of Penn as vp plus Sam Seder Interview with Jennifer Berkshire on ed wars and both party failures

I know some Jews may be excited at the possibility but Shapiro's history of supporting anti-public education policies falls into line with some of the Trump camp rhetoric. The Dem Party certainly played a role in the promotion of charters and they saw that the anti-union charter movement has hurt teacher unions.
 
Yesterday Sam Seder did a great interview with Jennifer Berkshire that covered a lot of ground on the attacks on public education.
 

Friday, August 2, 2024

Mulgrew Exposed on Stabilization Fund Raid, Unity Sticking With Mulgrew Albatross

Does anyone think other unions would let me take so much money out of the stabilization fund? Michael Mulgrew repeatedly scoffing and laughing at those who suggested it.

"Norman, I don't want to read any more of your lies," Mulgrew to me after I tried to hand him a leaflet at the May RTC meeting.
 
Cover blown: Adams made sure everyone knew that our brilliant leadership, along with the equally brilliant MLC, gave the city a billion dollars from our 1.8 billion dollar stabilization fund. They did this in exchange for money teachers earned years ago, and had to wait even more years to get... Adams Throws Mulgrew Under the Bus, Arthur Goldstein
Medicare Advantage is just Medicare Part C, a matter of semantics.... Mulgrew repeated claim while downplaying the significance of privately managed, profit making healthcare.


Friday, August 2, 2024
 
So who's the real liar? The fact is that the union does owe the city givebacks after signing contracts to agree to it. If they can't screw the retirees who can they screw? 55% of teachers are now Tier 6, so let's also screw them on healthcare. Do you think this might be an election issue next year?

In the meantime, thoughts that Mulgrew might be leaving seem to be dimming. Usually, Unity makes a presidential change by appointing the successor almost a year before an election to give their candidate the status of incumbency. When Mulgrew replaced Randi, it was in August 2009 and the next election was in the spring 2010 (James Eterno was the opponent). 
 
There has been some talk of Mary Vaccaro or Elem VP Karen Alford as potential replacements but Unity doesn't have a deep bench. How about Joe Biden, he's free?

Giving Mulgrew a prominent role at the recent AFT convention (Mulgrew PR Distraction) in his cover his ass reso calling for protections of senior social security and medicare was a signal of sorts that the Unity ship is doubling down on Mulgrew. 
 
Unity takes the threat seriously.
LeRoy Barr, Unity Caucus head and second in command to Mulgrew, told the staff to be ready for a battle for their jobs. How vicious will some of them be? The reality is that even if the oppo were to win, there is no way they can replace the staff of the union immediately. And I imagine those who actually do their jobs may well hold onto them. I would immediately hold elections for district reps and if an incumbent can get elected that is a sign they have done a decent job. If I were a district rep, I would do the best job I could to SERVICE THE MEMBERS INSTEAD OF FUNCTIONING AS A PROPAGANDA MACHINE FOR UNITY.

But as the oppo house pessimist, I have my doubts on the ability of the oppo to actually get it together enough to win. (UFT 2025 Opposition Election Update: What are the Possibilities? A slate of people, not caucuses), though I have seen an analysis by Jonthan that if the recent retiree vote was transposed to the 2022 election, the oppo would have won with 52% and Camille Eterno would be UFT president today.

Here is Arthur's take on the Mayor vs Mulgrew.

Adams suggested he was upset about the Medicare situation. Several people asked him about it. Adams launched into an impromptu history lesson, recounting that the UFT was responsible for this.

Adams made sure everyone knew that our brilliant leadership, along with the equally brilliant MLC, gave the city a billion dollars from our 1.8 billion dollar stabilization fund. They did this in exchange for money teachers earned years ago, and had to wait even more years to get. Mulgrew also cleverly managed to negotiate a crap pattern for the city for several years, including a year and a half of zero.

Adams contends the stabilization fund was healthy before Mulgrew made his momentous deal. He further says UFT created the problem, but we’re now running from the problem.