Shocking: Ross Douthat makes The Case for Bernie - NYT

Bernie depends intensely on the young. But his polling also shows an interesting better-than-you-expect pattern, given stereotypes about his support. He does better-than-you-expect with minorities despite having struggled with them in 2016, with moderate voters and $100K-plus earners despite being famously left-wing, and with young women despite all the BernieBro business.

This pattern explains why, in early-state polling, Sanders shows the most strength in very different environments — leading Warren everywhere in the latest FiveThirtyEight average, beating Biden in Iowa and challenging him in more-diverse Nevada, matching Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire and leading him easily in South Carolina and California.... ... Ross Douthat, NY Times, The Case for Bernie.

I rarely agree with NY Times right wing columnist Ross Douthat, but this is a remarkably honest article which compared to the liberal media, actually delves into the Bernie demographic support and points out the irony of his least level of support coming from people over 65. Let me hazzard two theories as to why: First, the already have medicare but more importantly, baby boomers lived through the anti-communist cold war with all the propaganda and distortions about socialists.

If you are a wavering Democrat concerned about both party unity and ultimate electability, about exciting all the diverse factions of your base while also competing for the disaffected, both the relative breadth of Bernie’s primary coalition and his decent polling among non-voters and Obama-Trump voters are reasons to give him another look. That decent polling, I suspect, reflects a sense among voters drawn to populism that Bernie is different from not only the more centrist candidates — latecomers Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick especially, but Buttigieg as well — but also from his fellow left-winger, Warren, who has fully embraced the culture-war breadth of the new progressivism while Sanders remains, fundamentally, an economic-policy monomaniac.

The latter point is crucial - Bernie puts things in economic terms and downplays identity politics, which was a reason he struggled with Black people but seems to have found a better formula as he plays cross-race class politics - consistent working class identity unites people if done right. But he also gets support from the over 100G crowd. Interesting. And Douthat doesn't mention union support from certain quarters. He also doesn't get into a vast grassroots army out there that no other candidate can match.

In my personal discussions with people, even with right wing Trumpists on Thanksgiving, I find Bernie gets the least scorn and some kudos for fighting the system so consistently over decades. And note how he is second to Biden in getting black support.

Of course there is the hatred the Obama/Clinton wing along with the Dem Party pros seems to have for Bernie, the major obstacle to his nomination. Many of us think they'd rather see Trump than Bernie. And there are so many ideologues on the left, I can't see them going for a centrist even if Trump would win. So there is a standoff of sorts which really helps Trump. But then again, I think that no matter which Dem would win, the Republicans will still have enough power to wreck and blame any one of them - and if they regain control of the House - say in 2022, they will impeach whomever for wearing the wrong color suit.

Here is the article.

The Case for Bernie
The Democrats need a unifier. It could be the Vermont Socialist.

By Ross Douthat
Opinion Columnist

The Democratic Party needs a nominee, but right now it has a train wreck instead. The front-runner seems too old for the job and is poised to lose the first two primary season contests. The woman who was supposed to become the front-runner on the basis of her policy chops is sliding in the polls after thoroughly botching her health care strategy. The candidate rising in her place is a 37-year-old mayor of a tiny, not-obviously-thriving city.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/opinion/sunday/bernie-sanders.html

Labor for Bernie UFT members call for a democratic presidential endorsement process

[Addendum Nov.  21 - I watched the MORE people promoting this idea and getting people to sign for this democratic process - and many did - but since the idea is to get the union to support Bernie - which will never happen - why not just get UFTers on board who are for Bernie and promote a Bernie campaign inside the UFT because these halfway measures go nowhere other than when the reso is brought up in December for the January meeting the DA will shoot it down. In the NY State primary getting people to vote for Bernie is a goal and I can see using every UFT event as an organizing tool for Bernie.]

I wrote this article for the Nov/Dec print edition of Ed Notes, distributed at the Nov UFT Delegate Assembly. (There's also an article on health care reprinted from Under Assault: The public option needs to go on the “ash heap of history".

I'm for Bernie but I also have some doubts - about his program and the way it would be implemented - if at all.

We probably need transformational change but I fear it could as easily go right rather than left if it gets screwed up. Imagine an economic crash under Bernie or any Democrat - and this is what I fear - whatever Dem wins the economy crashes and a competent right winger comes into power.

Anyway, this is about democracy at the UFT over the presidential nomination process and there's a lot of irony in that it is being pushed by people in the MORE Caucus which certainly didn't poll the members when they suspended me and others over trivialities.

But while I still support the idea of any democratic process in the UFT though I wonder why a referendum on this issue over all others? I'd love to see one on class size. I also call into question exactly how democratic the process was in Los Angeles which basically had a Bernie up or down discussion and never went to referendum. I point out that the UFT will never go for a democratic process. Randi will decide and then we will have a series of events to endorse her choice - and that AFT choice will be the UFT choice despite Randi giving locals permission to make their own choices.

And exactly how would this process work in the UFT? And what if Biden get the most support -- what would MORE and Bernie for Labor do? No way they would be bound for Biden. So in some ways this is a way to charge the UFT with not being democratic and try to make some hay out of this in a future electoral campaign. Also an organizing tool to get people to sign the petition and use that list for future contacts and organizing opportunities. But no one ever said MORE was not opportunistic.

By the way - Labor 4 Bernie is having a debate watch tonight at Versa Books, 2 Jay Street in Brooklyn.

Labor for Bernie UFT members call for a democratic presidential endorsement process -- by Norm Scott

Let me state right up front. I support Bernie Sanders for president, but I am not Bernie or Bust, meaning I would support most (but not all – Bloomberg, Booker, Bennet) Democratic Party candidates. I have joined national and local Labor for Bernie groups, designed to gather union support for Bernie, who has been the most consistent supporter of labor unions and worker rights over his entire career of any politician in either party. 

Bernie's education and labor plans are the most supportive for our members of any candidate. [A Thurgood Marshall Plan for Public Education - berniesanders.com/en/issues/reinvest-in-public-education and The Workplace Democracy Plan –berniesanders.com/en/issues/workplace-democracy.] It should, theoretically at least, be a no-brainer for us here in the UFT to join with our colleagues in Los Angeles – the UTLA – which endorsed Bernie with an 80% vote of the UTLA DA equivalent in his favor. UTLA president Alex Caputo-Pearl said: “Sanders is shaping up to be the candidate with the best chance not just to win the White House, but to actually change the conditions of massive inequality and underfunding of public education.” I pretty much agree, though I feel Bernie has a better chance to defeat Trump than he has in getting the nomination. We know the party big-wigs hate him and when push comes to shove I wonder if they wouldn’t prefer Trump to an avowed socialist.

The Chicago TU coming off a major strike may soon follow. Two of the three largest teacher unions endorsing Bernie is not insignificant. Yet long-time chapter leader and union activist (now retired) James Eterno at the ICEUFT blog stated, “there is a one in a billion chance of the UFT endorsing Bernie.” (My odds would be more like one in a million.) How can that be? Getting into the politics of why is beyond the scope of this article other than stating that our union leaders here in the UFT and AFT have been firmly planted in the center wing of the Democratic Party.

Randi Weingarten has acknowledged that the 2016 nomination process was flawed, saying in a recent statement “we have enabled locals and state federations, if they choose, prior to any national endorsement, to endorse a candidate for the purpose of their state primary or caucus.” So we are freed in the UFT to take action without waiting for Randi to decide.

You may have seen petitions being circulated by Labor for Bernie pointing to the UTLA endorsement of Bernie and urging support for a Resolution for Union Democracy in the 2020 Election. The reso states: The campaigns have started, but it will take a while for most busy educators to educate ourselves about the candidates, their records, and their visions for the country. Once we have had time to research, discuss, and deliberate, nobody knows better what is best for our union than the members ourselves.

An interesting contrast to what happened in LA where they didn’t wait for people to research or even offer them a choice other than Bernie. Here is their process:

Sept. 11 – UTLA Board of Directors votes 35-1 to begin exploring an endorsement process for Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Sept. 18 – UTLA House of Representatives votes 135-46 to confirm the process to explore endorsing Sanders.

Oct. 2 – School site leaders discuss and review endorsement materials.

Oct. 2 – Nov. 12 — School site leaders engage members on consideration of a UTLA endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Nov. 13 –  Membership advisory up or down vote at 9 regional area meetings. 72.5% of voters, representing more than 500 LAUSD schools, say yes to endorsing Sanders.

Nov. 14 — House of Representatives votes 80% to endorse Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The reso for the UFT goes in a very different direction than LA:

Resolved that 1) The UFT will wait to endorse a presidential candidate until after members have had a chance to learn about the candidates through the first six DNC debates through December 2019. 2) The UFT will hold forums for members to discuss the endorsements, and invite as many candidates to speak at such forums as possible. 3) The UFT will decide which candidate to endorse through a citywide, binding, one-member, one-vote poll of our members.

I am trying to parse what a binding one-vote poll of our members might mean for us in the UFT considering the politics of our union leadership and where our own membership might stand with so many candidates (yes, even Trumpers). 

So this petition is very different than the process in LA by calling for a referendum of sorts where all members of the UFT would get to vote for their candidate of choice. What if the UFT membership splits along the lines of the candidates with “the winner” getting, say, 25% of the votes. Thus, Bernie or Biden could “win” with a minority of votes. Would that be binding? Or democratic? The process being called for seems flawed, especially coming from a group billed as “Labor for Bernie.” Would a Biden endorsement by a clear minority of voters in the UFT be acceptable when they clearly have a preferred candidate in Bernie? Where do people in your schools stand at this point?

The reso being circulated in the UFT seems to recognize the realities of the control the leadership has over the Exec Bd, the DA and most of the schools, and never mentions Bernie. To go around that process, the sponsors are pushing for chapters to endorse the reso and hope that in schools where they have people, they can come to the DA with some chapter endorsements. The main group pushing this reso in the schools would be the MORE Caucus, whose leadership is prominent in Labor for Bernie. 

If a real referendum went against what the UFT leadership or even L4Bwants, that would put both of them in a box. So this reso has zero chance of passing, but putting it forth offers an opportunity to charge the leadership and Unity Caucus with not being democratic. And gathering signatures is an organizing opportunity for MORE. They’re certainly not interested in organizing me. But I will sign it anyway. Calling for democracy is good, I say, with some sense of irony (that’s an inside joke).

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Los Angeles Teachers Endorse Bernie, Chicago May Follow, Wither the UFT?

As union endorsements for Bernie come in he gains momentum. If CTU in Chicago joins UTLA then the second and third largest teacher unions endorse Bernie. James Eterno says it's a billion to one chance the UFT endorses Bernie and I somewhat agree. Maybe a million to one. I think they may settle on Warren if Biden falters. Imagine being faced with Bloomberg - thank goodness he has no chance - see my recent post: Bloomberg as President Would Be More Undemocratic than Trump.

I'm going to address the petition being put up by Labor for Bernie UFTers - pretty much MORE Caucus calling for a democratic poll - where I will point out that if they do actually hold a poll and it turns out not to be Bernie they will scream bloody murder and won't support the winner. But that's a story for another day.

Ravitch had a report on the LA endorsement (Los Angeles: UTLA Endorses Bernie Sanders) with a full statement on the process used 

timeline of UTLA’s endorsement.

• Sept. 11 – UTLA Board of Directors votes 35-1 to begin exploring an endorsement process for Sen. Bernie Sanders.
• Sept. 18 – UTLA House of Representatives votes 135-46 to confirm the process to explore endorsing Sanders.
• Oct. 2 – School site leaders discuss and review endorsement materials.
• Oct. 2-Nov. 12 — School site leaders engage members on consideration of a UTLA endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders.
• Nov. 13— Membership advisory up or down vote at 9 regional area meetings. 72.5% of voters, representing more than 500 LAUSD schools, say yes to endorsing Sanders.
• Nov. 14 — House of Representatives votes 80% to endorse Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Note the process was not a poll to see which candidate members wanted but an up and down on Bernie. But it looks like Bernie was pretty up. But if the numbers were say 50-50 it might be sticky.

James reported at the ICE Blog and James seems to be pretty open to Bernie - and James is a progressive but no open lefty which is interesting. I find pretty much all the ICEUFT people are pro-Bernie.

UNITED TEACHERS OF LOS ANGELES ENDORSES BERNIE SANDERS FOR PRESIDENT

Teacher union news from Los Angeles, California:

LOS ANGELES — United Teachers Los Angeles, the second-largest teachers’ local in the country, is proud to endorse Senator Bernie Sanders for US President in the 2020 Primary Election, making UTLA the first teachers’ union in the country to endorse a presidential candidate.

Tonight, the UTLA House of Representatives – the elected leadership body of the 34,000-member union — voted 80% in favor of endorsing Sen. Sanders, capping the most comprehensive member engagement process that UTLA has ever conducted for a political candidate.

Thursday’s House vote followed a six-week discussion at school sites. Following that member engagement, on Wednesday at nine regional meetings, more than 500 elected site representatives voted 72.5% yes to the presidential endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Wednesday’s vote was opened up to allow any member who attended to vote alongside elected chapter leaders.

UTLA President Alex Caputo-Pearl said: “Why now, and why Bernie? Because we want him to win in the primary election and because we need an unapologetic, longstanding ally of progressive policies to make public education a priority in the White House. Sanders is the first viable major candidate in 25 years in the Democratic Party to stand up against privatization, the charter billionaires, and high-stakes testing and to stand up for a massive redistribution of wealth to schools and social services. Critically, like UTLA, Sen. Sanders believes in building a national movement for real, lasting change.”

Alex led a successful strike in LA earlier this year.  I take this union out in LA seriously. We can only dream that our Union will follow.

Do you see a process like UTLA had before endorsing Sanders going on in the UFT?

For anyone who has not seen Bernie's education and labor plans, please read them. They are worth your time.

Diane Ravitch covered the story and there are some interesting comments there.

The largest nurse's  union also endorsed Bernie this week. We will see where labor goes. 

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I'm including this report from September from the right wing critic Mike Antonucci who does make some interesting points:

UTLA Begins Process to Endorse Bernie Sanders

United Teachers Los Angeles isn’t waiting around for the field of Democratic presidential candidates to be winnowed down. The union’s representative bodies took steps last week to endorse Bernie Sanders.
It’s unclear who introduced the motion, but the UTLA board of directors voted 35-1 on September 11 to “initiate a process of exploration to endorse Bernie Sanders for President of the United States in the Democratic Party primary.” On September 19 the union’s house of representatives concurred by a vote of 135-46.
The process involves “engaging” chapter leaders in a discussion of Sanders’ qualities that will culminate in an advisory vote for or against an endorsement of Sanders on November 13. The UTLA house of representatives will then take up a formal endorsement vote on November 14.
It’s not unusual for state and local teacher unions to endorse primary candidates on their own when a clear front-runner hasn’t emerged. But even UTLA calls this process “unique.”
What isn’t unique, judging by the evidence so far, is that the process isn’t really about determining whom chapter leaders (or rank-and-file members) want to endorse, but about selling them on Bernie Sanders.
“Sanders is shaping up to be the candidate with the best chance not just to win the White House, but to actually change the conditions of massive inequality and underfunding of public education,” said UTLA President Alex Caputo-Pearl.
We’ll see how this approach plays with those in UTLA who support one of the other dozen or so Democratic presidential candidates. The desires of Republican UTLA members can safely be ignored.

NYC Labor for Bernie Aims to Raise Profile in Unions

I attended my first Labor for Bernie (L4B) meeting last week which was held at 50 Broadway, ironically a building owned by the UFT. There were union members from a variety of NYC unions - DC37, iron workers, Transit, Teamsters, UAW -  with the biggest contingent being from the UFT. That group included a few of my former MORE colleagues - and I made sure to keep my back against the wall at all times.

It is hard to come up with a general approach to pushing Bernie as a candidate in unions depending on the general views of the members, the level of control exerted by the leadership, and other factors. For instance, there was a Transit Worker guy there (oh, and let me point out that this meeting was overwhelmingly male - and white). He pointed out that the former head of the TWU had endorsed Bernie but he was now head of the national TWU so there was now a different dynamic.

There was someone there who worked with the Teamster opposition faction, Teamsters for a Democratic Union (TDU), but the Teamsters are not viewed as a whole as Bernie territory. But I found out that Teamsters rep many work areas, including some college teachers and nurses.

It was interesting that the meeting was being chaired by the same guy from MORE who chaired so many of their meetings, one of the more recent recruits to MORE over the past two years from the Democratic Socialists (DSA) who worked with the ISO faction in the purges and takeover. I assume the moves inside L4B is part of the overall strategy of the MORE/DSA group. Watch for a campaign around this issue coming out of MORE.

I had been aware of L4B due to the work of Mindy Rosier, who has been on the Bernie team from Day 1 and was a delegate to the 2016 Dem convention, one of those who were pretty critical of the Randi/AFT/UFT early support for Hillary.

Mindy is another ex-MORE who found the actions of the current MORE leadership pretty despicable and has now joined Unity and was elected to the Ex Bd which is so interesting given that the UFT leadership is so anti-Bernie. We know they will never back Bernie and we know that Mindy will try to be a delegate to the Dem convention where Randi is a super delegate. That should be fun.

One experience of the progressives pushed out of MORE who had been anti-Unity has been that if the opposition acts as bad or worse than the union leadership, why not go with them? I personally don't agree with that point and in fact find myself in more agreement with positions MORE takes but can't support them because of their leadership.

So there is this interesting dynamic of the undemocratic socialists of MORE (USoM) pushing a line in the UFT that the AFT should have a democratic process in choosing the presidential nominee. Former MOREs are snickering and doing LOLs. I keep thinking of a dog biting its own tail.

Mindy is enormously popular inside the L4B crew due to her hard work over the years. As someone new to this group I will follow wherever Mindy goes politically. If she works with the MOREs I will bite the bullet and join her. As the UDoMs push for a "fair" process inside the UFT it will be fun to watch how things play out.

The UFT, Biden, Bernie, Warren and Labor 4 Bernie

Biden's speech was meh and didn't elicit much enthusiasm ---- an audience member at Teacher Union Recognition Day, Oct. 20, 2019

We were clear that because Biden was available it no way means we are endorsing him. This in no way means we don’t

want others to come. As soon as we can get them here, we will. ... Leroy Barr at UFT Ex Bd

Right. Biden just happened to have a day free. When I saw that Joe Biden was going to address a thousand teachers (most of them from Unity Caucus) at Union Recognition Day, I felt that was clearly sending a message to the members. If the UFT had Bernie at an event like this I would be shocked. I believe the UFT/AFT would fundamentally sit the election out rather than support Bernie Sanders because of its long history of anti-leftism going back to its founding.

The AFT/UFT will be putting up some bogus "democratic" process, unlike last time when they endorsed Hillary before anyone could breathe and took some heat for it. I know how they operate. Randi will make the choice again and then work backwards to make it look democratic. 

Is there any doubt that Bernie has consistently been the most pro-union politician while the Democrats caved on union support for decades?