Mulgrew's Para Pay Gambit in Conflict with Mamdani Who Gets Praise from the Right: Is This War?

EONYC, The WIRE:

don’t confuse a temporary check with a raise.

don’t confuse a political campaign with collective bargaining.

 Arthur Goldstein, The Ever-Shifting Rationales of Michael Mulgrew

You CAN’T circumvent collective bargaining.

That’s what he [Mulgrew] told us as we tried to pass 1096. No doubt he’ll trot this out again as we support the newly named 1008. The problem, he claims, with a bill that would make our health care city policy and eliminate his beloved co-pays is it violates collective bargaining.  

Paras Need a Living Wage Now, Not To Be Used as Political Props - Educators of NYC, Daniel Alicea

Monday, Sept. 7, 2026 - Happy Labor Day

 

There were howls of laughter in UFT-land when the unpopular union leader Michael Mulgrew declared war on the super popular Mayor Mamdani over the para bonus issue. 

 

Did Mamdani invite Mulgrew to break the much-maligned pattern bargaining that sets a standard of pay raise for all unions based on the first union to settle? It would make sense for a DSA pro-labor mayor to give special attention to the lowest paid workers and paras certainly fit that mold, as do EMS workers. But that would break the pattern and might lead to squawking from higher salaried who might get less %wise even if the actual money they get would be more - much more.  

 

Due to pattern-bargaining, the same % goes to the highest and lowest paid. Thus a 100k at 3% worker gets a 3k raise a year and a para at 35K gets a $350 raise in the same contract. The only way for paras to get a permanent, pensionable salary is to selectively break the pattern.  

 

Yes, Mulgrew is using the same collective bargaining argument as Mamdani when it comes to protecting retiree healthcare, except Mamdani is closer to the truth than Mulgrew. But using "truth" and "Mulgrew" in the same sentence is a sham.

 

Oh, the irony of the mainstream NYC press (Times, News, Post) engaging in a rare Mamdani praise-fest for standing up to the UFT, when in actuality he is taking a potential long-range pro-para pro-union position. But then again so much of what Mulgrew has done is actually anti-union, and the para bonus gambit may just fit that mold. 

 

I say potential because the crucial test will be in the next contract negotiations where if Mamdani doesn't deliver for paras his cred on the left on the affordability issue with some of the lowest paid city workers would be laid to waste. 

 

There are many facets to the para pay issue. When my wife, who pays little attention to some of this stuff, asked me why Mamdani opposes the para bonus, I realized the issue had gone mainstream. I told her the key to understanding the entire issue was the Fix Para Pay election win over Unity in the 2024 chapter election. Her eyes glazed over at the inside baseball. Go and explain this to the mainstream press which is framing the issue in lopsided ways.

 

Daniel Alicea addresses the Unity election loss issue:

The Daily News says UFT President Michael Mulgrew “failed” paraprofessionals at the bargaining table and “basically left the paras behind.”

That’s the sentence worth remembering.

Because before there was a RESPECT Check, before Mayor Zohran Mamdani sued to stop it, and before politicians started holding press conferences about paraprofessional poverty, paras themselves had already revolted.

In the last UFT paraprofessional chapter election, in 2024, Fix Para Pay — a rank-and-file movement demanding better wages — defeated Mulgrew’s Unity Caucus with roughly 75% of the vote.

That’s not a close election.

That’s a jaw-breaking message.

Only after that political earthquake inside his own union did Mulgrew become the public face of a $10,000 legislative campaign. A lobbying campaign and series of bills in which Mulgrew never once consulted with the UFT paraprofessional chapter over its design or messaging.

That history matters.

So does what happened to the $10,000.

Continue reading his post at The Wire

The mainstream mostly anti-Mamdani and anti-union press has been having a field day, gleeful at seeing a split and mocking a DSA member mayor, and so happy that a pro-labor socialist will stand up to the union.  

 

Here are a few points to explore:

 

Mulgrew's para gambit was a response to the Para chapter election loss in 2024. Check.

 
If we delve deeper, we can see that Mamdani is actually more pro-labor than Mulgrew and his corrupt UFT leadership by defending the collective bargaining agreement as the way to enact permanent economic health for paras as opposed to a one-time non-pensionable gimmick. 

 

Mulgrew and City Council chair Menin tag team Mamdani as she preps a 2029 campaign against him, a campaign the UFT will back (maybe the kiss of death for her?). The para issue is the first of others to come where Menin looks for opportunities to differentiate herself. (Keep an eye on the 9/11 ceremonies).

 

The mainstream press has superficially been siding with Mamdani for standing up to the union and attacking Menin, but that is temporary. The second he gives paras a raise in the contract, the dogs will be out. 

 

The left, especially the loyal opposition in the UFT, which is reluctant to criticize Mamdani and seems confused, just stays silent - see if you can find a Jacobin article delving into the issue. So the only place with a left-leaning perspective where you will get some analysis is by reading Arthur, Daniel, ABC, Fix Retiree Benefits, FIx Para Pay and Ed Notes. Let me know when you see MORE, RA or NAC put something up.

 

Here are excerpts from the NYT authored by 3 reporters who always have their chops out to slam Mamdani. The Times has followed the scurvy NY Post lead on anti-Mamdani articles.                                                                  

By Fighting Union Pay Bonus, Mamdani Wins Rare Praise From Conservatives

A lawsuit filed by the Mamdani administration to block $10,000 bonuses for teachers’ aides has put the mayor at odds with their union.

Aug. 31, 2026 - By Eliza Shapiro, Sally Goldenberg and Dana Rubinstein

When Mayor Zohran Mamdani sued the City Council over its end-run move to give $10,000 bonuses to teachers’ aides outside the normal collective bargaining process, the mayor placed himself at the short end of a two-on-one battle.

Not only would the mayor square off against the City Council, a frequent sparring partner, but he would also embark on his first major fight with a public sector union, in this case the United Federation of Teachers.

In doing so, a mayor eager to burnish his pro-worker bona fides has scrambled conventional wisdom and left himself in the strange position of being praised by some of his most committed critics.

“Mamdani does right,” read a recent headline from The New York Post’s conservative editorial

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/nyregion/mamdani-uft-paraprofessionals-budget.html 

 

 A Daily News editorial goes after Menin:

Julie Menin’s power grab in pushing bonuses for NYC paraprofessionals would make Trump proud

Because Speaker Julie Menin knows better, her unabashed abuse of power in orchestrating a unanimous City Council vote for a $10,000 bonus payment for NYC’s deeply deserving school paraprofessionals would make Donald Trump proud.

Her usurping the mayor’s exclusive authority under the state Taylor Law to negotiate contracts was a naked giveaway to the powerful teachers union and United Federation of Teachers President Mike Mulgrew and sets a dangerous precedent at City Hall.

 

The Missing Link in all reporting on the para issue is the 10k is the Unity Loss to Fix Para Pay in the 2024 Para Chapter Election, along with the loss in the Retiree election. 

 

The losses were by big margins: 63% in the RTC and 75% in the para election. In the RTC, Unity dropped from their usual 17-19K to 10K.

With 26k paras and 70K retirees and his re-election coming up a year later, losing big in those chapters could very well have turned into a loss for Unity - and both results spurred Amy Arundell and other unhappy Unity people to join with some standard opposition folk to form a potent ABC and become a threat. Mulgrew pivoted by declaring he no longer backed MedAdvantage and for the paras came up with the one-time non-pensionable 10k bonus. 

And it seemed to work in time for the 2025 election . One of the reasons ABC actually thought it had a chance to win even in a 3 slate race was the hope that the para and retiree vote would be substantial. While the retiree vote dropped from 2024 it was still enough to continue to worry Unity with Unity regaining some ground but fundamentally in a 50-50 split with the ABC/ARISE combo retiree vote. (I will delve deeply into the upcoming RTC election.)

The para vote was not substantial, as the Unity blitz before the election gave paras the impression Mulgrew was really fighting for them. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the upcoming para chapter election if FPP runs a slate. Will there be some blowback if they still haven't gotten the check by the spring?

While supporting the 10k as an emergency bonus, ABC pointed out the one-time only gimmicky aspect and called for paras to get a permanent pensionable raise in contract negotiations, while also pointing out that Mulgrew had his chance to get them a big raise in the last contract and didn't even try. For taking that position, Unity attacked ABC as being against the 10K and that also cut down the vote. But 140 paras ran with ABC -- and none with ARISE. 

Now that Mamdani is taking the collective bargaining position in opposing the 10k bonus and in essence challenging Mulgrew to bargain effectively (two contradictory words for UFT negotiators) he also puts to shame the Mulgrew position that supporting City Council bills to protect retiree healthcare violates collective bargaining and the Taylor Law. Taking one side for an issue and taking the contradictory side for another issue is not out of bounds in the UFT.

Tell Our Councilmembers to Support 1008

Please do your part to help get 1008 passed!

Fix Retiree Benefits - UFT

I left a text linking the para election issue at the Brian Lehrer show regarding the election after a segment on the para issue last week. 

Daniel points out that if going around contract negotiations and using politics to bargain is good for the goose, it is also good for the gander as other unions will play the same game.

Daniel Alicea nailed the FPP election impact:

The ripple effects are already beginning.

Council Member Joann Ariola has announced legislation proposing $20,000 workforce stabilization payments for FDNY EMTs and $25,000 payments for FDNY paramedics, arguing they face the same recruitment and retention crisis.

She probably won’t be the last.

School aides.

School crossing guards.

School food service workers.

Childcare workers.

EMTs.

And countless other lower-paid municipal employees now have every reason to ask the same question.

Paras Need a Living Wage Now, Not To Be Used as Political Props

While UFT leadership, City Council Speaker Menin and Mayor Mamdani are cast as heroes and villains, we continue to forget paraprofessionals need a permanent living wage, now — not later.

Dan Alicea

Aug 30, 2026

 

https://thewire.educators.nyc/p/paras-need-a-living-wage-now-not?r=h8n1q&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

 

Last week, the Daily News editorial board got one big thing right about New York City’s paraprofessionals.

NYC paras were left behind.

Where I part company with the board is over what happens next — and who gets to play hero now that everybody has discovered that a school worker making barely $33,000 can’t afford New York City.

More from Dan 

The Good, Bad and Ugly - The NYC Para Bill

Educators of NYC

·

Jul 21

Read full story

FIX RETIREE BENEFITS - UF

 

UFT Election 25 Dissection: ABC Broke New Ground, Just Not Enough to Win, While ARISE Dived

With indications that ABC will continue to function, I'm writing this analysis as a warning sign for the future of oppo in the UFT as I can foresee the divisions not going away and a similar two slate situation emerging again. I am making the case that only an ABC-like strategy and organization - or dis-organization of individuals can beat Unity. (On Thursday, June 19th, ICEUFT will meet in person to take a deep dive into the issues raised here.) 

That doesn't mean legacy caucuses go away and continue to do the work they do on social justice and other issues, but release their people to run with an ABC-like group while supporting the effort. Knowing the caucus-first mentality, don't expect this to happen on an organizational level, but I appeal to the individuals in the caucuses to think this through. 

 

ARISE spent thousands of dollars on campaign and a glossy flier (almost a work of art) and raced to hundreds of schools to stuff mail boxes, while ABC spend a minimal amount and focused on its people getting out the vote in their schools. 

 

If you are looking for the difference in outcomes, look at these numbers: 

 

ABC ran 560 candidates, 520 of them in the schools (about 40 retirees) while ARISE, despite bragging of the largest number of candidates in decades, had only 490 or so, with 140 retirees, a difference of about 150 in school people. Back in the fall when people were calling for both slates to unite, at least one ARISE steering committee member mocked ABC as being only 7 people and claiming ABC could not get a slate together and would have to come begging. That led to a mentality within ARISE that ABC would fail. 

Monday June 16, 2025 

 

I received a post-election call from a long-time major oppo left-leaning activist from years ago, who did not run in the election, praising ABC on the outcome of the election  - a group of individuals came together - people who had never worked with each other in the past - to win almost 18k and 32% of the votes - the largest oppo vote total in history despite another slate running. He was impressed. 

 

Another left-leaning non-candidate activist also was surprised at the 32% outcome. We had argued throughout the campaign over my contention ABC had a chance to win -- my odds were 10%. His were 1%. My position that ABC could win even with two slates, which was much mocked, while not proven, showed that it was possible. What I never considered was how poorly the legacy caucuses would do - and I even include Unity, given their 54%.

 

Losing by 22 points to Unity still put ABC closer to beating Unity than any oppo I can remember. During the campaign, Unity focused its attacks on ABC and some ARISE leaders from NAC and RA spent more time attacking ABC than Unity, and receiving much praise from Unity people for doing so. This is not to taint all of ARISE, most of whom, especially those in MORE, mostly refrained from attacks. I detected a sense of growing respect, despite differences, between some ABC and MORE people. From the beginning last summer, ABC was open to individuals from MORE running with ABC and some did and played an important role.

 

I've seen some comments from ARISE people talking about the two oppo groups lost to Unity, as if both outcomes were equivalent, thus burying the lead. ABC finished 22% points behind Unity while the ARISE legacy caucuses, despite decades of so-called organizing, finished 40% points behind Unity. 

 

A flip of 11% points between ABC and Unity would have put ABC in a tie with Unity. As people are already looking to 2028, keep this in mind. But don't expect the legacy caucuses to learn a lesson and some in NAC and RA, not willing to face the truth, attribute the difference to dirty tactics or social media or shady practices.

 

Back in December when everyone was going nuts over two slates running against Unity I put forth reasons I thought ABC had a chance of winning: UFT Elections: The Two Slate Solution - Keep Calm. Here were a few key takeaways then (in red) and my current response:

• I've maintained the only way to win this election with the prospects of building dynamic change into the UFT is by enlisting large numbers of working UFTers. Do not rely on retirees to win and dominate a fossilized union (yes I am one of these fossils.) The current configuration of the legacy caucuses unfortunately leads us in this direction.

There was an increase in turnout of 15% up to 28%. ABC needed closer to 33% turnout. For an upstart non-caucus based group, we did not get deep enough but showed a path to victory even with two oppos -- and even if we had run common candidates we would have lost in every area other than the 7 high school seats.

• The 63% retiree vote that the legacy caucuses are relying to deliver will not hold up for this election. In the 2022 UFT general election retirees won 29% -the same number they did in the 2021 RTC election. In the latter election word was out about the medicare situation - my biggest disappointment in that election was not seeing the retiree vote expand. That we didn't increase the retiree vote from the year before when few knew about the health plan changes. That led to me being pessimistic for the past June election. I was wrong. We ran a great campaign but the difference maker: Marianne. Where will she land in this election and if she doesn't get her people involved the retiree vote will drop significantly. Unity still won over 10k in the 2024 chapter loss. Expect that to hold and grow as Unity supporters may have turned on Tom Murphy as RTC leader but may not be willing to turn over the entire union to what will clearly be labeled a left-wing opposition run by legacy caucuses that they have fought for years. RA did not have a bad rep a year ago.

This prediction came through - Unity clawed back 3k votes to get 13K this time but ABC got 9K and ARISE 3k -- not enough to win the retiree vote but close. Clearly RA failed drastically in dropping from 17K a year ago but ABC getting 3x their total proved the influence of Marianne, something my pals in RA had been downgrading, thinking it was their organizing a year ago.  

• ABC is the non-ideological, non-sectarian option with people from every caucus, including Unity, so Unity retirees who know the score may go ABC, but not with a slate dominated with MORE candidates.  

Give me a check on this one. MORE has over 500 members. RA counted on its 300 delegates, who had no say in the choice to run with ARISE to come through. NAC has shown little presence in the schools and did not have faith in the possibilities of ABC and felt an alliance with MORE would make a difference. I argued the opposite to them, to no avail. 

•  The numbers from the UFC full frontal coalition vote in 2022 were not much different from the smaller MORE/NAC coalition in 2016. Why would this election be any different from the in-service vote (Mah Nishtanah), especially since what was UFC is diminished? Given the 2022 vote and reduced caucus coalitions, I maintain Unity would win the election if we were limited to a coalition run similar to UFC, which the legacy caucuses not even reaching the same levels of organizing that UFC, had reached. 

I wrote:

UFC's main success was the increased % for UFC but that was due to Unity drops which did not go to UFC. That dropped Unity vote just might shift into the ABC column due to the Unity presence in ABC.  UFC did not bump up the in-service vote or even the retiree vote in that election.  I contend that with a weakened UFC, these numbers will remain constant for the caucus coalition, with the only wild cards retirees. The only way to win is to go after the 80% who don't usually vote, not an easy task but that looks like the major initiative of ABC and to siphon off Unity votes.

Constant? I was wrong. I actually thought ARISE might get 20-25% and ABC over 30%. And I was wrong about Unity continued drops -- they really brought out their base and increased in every area other than High schools.

I used the 2022 outcome to base a lot of my theories and the numbers for ARISE were worse than they were for UFC, which I also predicted - that ARISE was a diminished UFC which had 7 or 8 components. Nick bragged that the trimmed down to 3 ARISE was so easy to work with. That's very nice and comfortable - for them. The "less is more" theory didn't work in this case. 

• Oh, but what about the retiree and para votes from last spring? They are not automatic and must be worked for. Fix Para Pay is aligned at this point with ABC. So Don't forget the 27k para potential vote. The in-service para vote, with 27k paras, long ignored by the opposition,  may prove more crucial than the retiree vote if we get turnout. Note: A key organizing strategy is taking direct aim at this vote with a plan to fight for para pay instead of the Unity policy of telling them to be happy they have a job.

So this point sort of worked out with 120 paras running with ABC but we had hoped to do much better despite tripling ARISE and getting 1500 more functional votes than UFC did in 2022. That was due mostly to paras but the Unity push for 10k para bonuses (a smart election ploy, still unrealized) worked and the hoped-for tap into the 27k para vote was only partially successful. ABC also aimed to tap into other functional areas like OT/PT and nurses and probably did. But the Unity campaign worked - compare 2025 to 2022.

 

• ABC with a drastic new approach to not just running in the election but open to taking the election-building process out from behind closed doors and get more rank and file involved - and it has been working. Sample: 100 showed for a zoom for paras and district 75 on Tuesday, and over 50 for a High School zoom Wednesday, including chapter leaders from large high schools, including some key people from Unity.That followed a general meeting with 260 people. Think each in-service having some kind of network outreach in their schools. ABC is building the broadest coalition and still invites all legacy caucus members and supporters to run on the ABC independent slate with no labels. Already some have signed up to run. Is it enough yet? No. But there's a long way to go before ballots go out in May and petitioning starting Feb. 12. And ABC has the petition king: ME.

Well, I was pleasantly surprised at how relatively easy the petitioning was compared to 2022, with loads of ABC retiree and active people coming out to assist. Even I underestimated the vigor of ABCers. The one snag, if you call it that, was how aggressive ABC people were in recruiting candidates in the final week which forced us to spend the final weekend processing them - every candidate needed wet signature which made things difficult. A delightful snag. If we had another week we would have run a full slate of 750.

• Almost 40% of Trump supporters in NYS are in a union and many of them in the UFT and also anti-Mulgrew. Many have been non-voters in the past. With an ABC option that is focused on bread and butter and without a leftist ideology reputation, they may vote. Some will say how dare you hope Trump supporters vote for you? How dare I run to win.   

ABC WAS WILLING TO TALK TO ALL UFT MEMBERS AND AVOIDS PURGES AND SHUNNING -  HORRORS!

 

ABC has been vilified for trying to keep communication open to a wide variety of UFT members and focused on what members felt were important in their schools. Some in ARISE bragged about how moral and progressive they were and branded ABC as right wing troglodytes despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of key activists had a long record of progressive politics. 

When you run to win, you have to be willing to listen to everyone and not set up ideological walls -- you know, not call fellow UFT members you disagree with "deplorable."   

 

In recent discussions during the vote count when I asked some of the ARISE people why run if you know you will lose, the response was to "get our ideas and visions out". The thinking is that long-term they can win enough progressives over. I respond that you will have little influence unless you can win and then have the full resources of the UFT to try to win people over in a democratic and transparent process. But running in elections is embedded in the DNA of caucuses and don't be surprised to see it happen again in 2028.

 

Unity bummed at how poorly ARISE did 

The biggest disappointment to Unity was how bad ARISE did as ABC emerged as the big oppo dog. For ABC, it should try to convince the independent minds in ARISE to work with ABC in the next election while also continuing to work with their caucuses which could still use the election process and save their resources to promote their positions. They could still put out a leaflet and flood the mail boxes while not running --- a position I advocated for MORE in my final days there in late 2018 before the 2019 election. That helped get me kicked out of MORE. 

Split in MORE - Results strengthen the "don't run wing"

Back in August/September when MORE was debating whether to run at all, run alone or run in coalition, a strong group of 35 out of 160 who voted (what happened to the 500 MORE members?) were against running in coalition "with people who do not share their values." That says a lot about MORE and the lack of GOTV. In the vote to accept the coalition only 70 MOREs voted. 

 

The pro-coalition group knew full well that NAC had little pull in the schools but did have a large group of retirees who would do the work. NAC believed MORE had the horses in the schools to pull out votes. RA was viewed by both as the big retiree dog and the failure on that end is clear. 

 

I will say that inside ABC, while not wanting to run in an election with a group having the MORE label, the feelings about individuals in MORE have not been negative while there is a lot more people pissed off at NAC and RA. A lot of the ABC crowd are thankful to the people in MORE for informing them of the urinal attack on Amy. I think on the person to person level we may see some cooperation on common issues. 

 

 

NEXT: I will breakdown the elem, ms and hs results. 

 

Future of the Dem Party 

Is Randi moving left? Randi Quits DNC -- 

 

And these articles:

https://post.substack.com/p/whos-going-to-run-new-york?

https://rosselliotbarkan.com/p/the-collapse-of-the-professional?

https://rosselliotbarkan.com/p/the-three-factions-of-the-american?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/22/the-making-of-the-new-left

 

 

UFT Election Results: Unity’s Grip Weakens—A Better Contract Rises as Only Growing Force- By Mike Schirtzer

 June 8, 2025

First let me state that neither Mike nor I speak for ABC but our words will be used as representative of ABC. ABC clearly arose - or arised - or arrived. ABC is criticized for being too aggressive - exactly the opposite of how UFT leadership behaves passively when dealing with the DOE and politicians -- but they sure are aggressive in attacking ABC. Frankly, I want more ABC in your face when dealing with the DOE and Mayor.

I don't agree with everything that Mike Schirtzer, the eternal optimist, says here. As a pessimist I can't even guarantee ABC is still around in 3 years. Or next month. (Cheers arise from ARISE - and Unity.) But getting about 18k votes, the highest of any opposition in history, is nothing to sneeze at and was not due to social media but to having people in the schools. Do they know you, do they trust you, as James Eterno used to say, is operative. 

Mike will come under attack for this post. How dare Mike celebrate the UFT election as a "win" for ABC? I'd say some people in ABC are not celebrating because they thought they would win, unlike ARISE which knew they would lose. They would be celebrating if they ran roughly even with ABC. But instead of analyzing their 18 point loss to ABC and their 40 point loss to Unity, they are blaming ABC's campaign. Talk about tone-deaf. My prediction is that ARISE will re-arise in 3 years and play the same losing game by making it impossible to have one slate - the Einstein definition of insanity. 

This is not to say that many ABCs would work with almost everyone in ARISE in the future (except for one or two) but not with the caucuses themselves. And in fact ABC took that position since November and will continue to take that position.

[Check out what I wrote 5 years apart: April 28, 2019: UFT Election Overall and Retiree Data... and June 25, 2024 - Can Unity Be Beaten in 2025 UFT Election?]

The major obstacles to defeating Unity after these results are the weakness of the caucuses after decades of getting the same results and their insistence that only they should be allowed to run UFT elections. (My next post will do a breakdown of the numbers). 

The attacks on ABC from both Unity and ARISE are similar (Leo Casey and Nick Bacon separated at birth) - and we saw in the campaign an informal alliance of sorts between Unity and ARISE -- like the ARISE candidate who ran against Mulgrew is doing workshops next weekend at the UFT (and Mulgrew called on her twice at the DA). And the enormous praise for a co-chair of one of the ARISE caucuses who is also on the ARISE steering committee for relentless attacks on ABC going back months -- a clear sign that elements of ARISE are already thinking that the goal is not uniting with ABC but exterminating ABC and leaving the field to the same old caucuses that failed so badly in this election. And Unity has the same goal. Build up ARISE as the legitimate and loyal opposition and try to bury ABC.... Oh, and Mike, who has been on the UFT Exec Board for 9 years, elected on the MORE and then the Unity slates, will now be off the board ------ Norm

UFT Election Results: Unity’s Grip Weakens—A Better Contract Rises as Only Growing Force- 

 By Mike Schirtzer

 

Unity didn’t win. They survived. And their time is running out.

The numbers are in—and while President Mulgrew and his Unity Caucus claims another win, the truth is undeniable: their mandate is collapsing.

Out of over 200,000 UFT members, 57,905 ballots were counted (an increase of 15% from the last election but still only 28% of eligible voters). Of those, Unity received just 30,219 votes. That means fewer than 1 in 10 members actively support this leadership. Most didn’t vote at all—because they either didn’t know there was an election, or they’ve lost faith that anyone is listening.

UFT Election Fallout - Retiree Advocate Loses Two Elections - Warning Signs for Future Control of RTC

This is updated from the original post.

Takeaway:

RA loses to Unity and ABC as ABC triples the retiree vote of ARISE, which has two 30 year old caucuses full of retirees. How can that happen? Will RA face the facts or look to place blame on the way ABC ran their campaign or the issues they ran on - or maybe they used voodoo.

Can the damaged RA brand, king of the hill a year ago, be restored? Not without restructuring. The total retiree non-Unity vote was still 47%. To stop the bleeding, a non-partisan retiree council should be formed that would be inclusive of retirees from ARISE, ABC and independents. 

Monday, June 4, 2025

Unity has its sights set on winning back the RTC from RA in the 2027 chapter election and the recent UFT election results indicate they have a good chance. 

The impact of Marianne has been major and I will prove it with the numbers over the past 4 years of retiree votes in both chapter and general UFT elections. No wonder Unity and some ARISE went after her. And with only 53% retirees for Unity in this election, look for the attacks on her to continue (ie. Leo Casey whose analysis is a total attack on her and ABC while not recognizing that the pro-Marianne faction tripled the vote of the non-Marianne group - clearly his favored opposition is the one that got 14%). 

An old lefty told me not long ago that he thinks Marianne is remarkable and has put the left so-called labor organizers to shame by building a multi-union machine reaching deep into the working class. Let me point out here that Unity only recovered 3k votes from last year while the combined ABC/ARISE lost about 6k - meaning a whole bunch of former supporters did not vote this time and attribute some of that to the split opposition. A united retiree group next time could bring these votes back. 

The only question is will RA wise up and face the reality of their poor showing with ARISE with only 12% of retiree votes or team up with ABC and its 35% and stop Unity from taking back the chapter in 2027? Knowing the politics I'm not so sure.

Let me point out this is not about ARISE and ABC but about retirees from both groups coming together. But the way RA does business has got to change for this to happen. 

A year ago RA and the oppo cheered Marianne's support for RA but soured once she supported ABC in this election. I even heard some RA people claiming it was their organizing that won 63% a year ago, with some assistance from Marianne, which astounded me. You don't go from 30% to 63% in such a short time just based on a caucus doing better organizing.

First the hard numbers, and then some background. 

Jon Halabi chart

As you can see, Unity took 53% of the retiree vote while ARISE had only 12%, with ABC getting 35%. Now look at 2022 when UFC, an expanded form of ARISE, garnered only 29% with Unity getting 70%. I have to say that the 2022 results really disappointed me since the Medicare issue had been out there for a year and I had hoped RA would get the vote over 40% which is why I had dim hopes of winning in last year's chapter elections. Even I didn't think Marianne would be such a factor.

In the last UFT election in 2022 RA was one of the 7 or 8 members of the United for Change coalition,  which this time split into 3 for ARISE and elements of the rest with ABC. (Thus my contention from almost a year ago that an ARISE like coalition would not be able to even match the UFC output, which proved true.

Retirees: 

68,970 ballots sent,  

Retirees: 27,451 - this was over the 23k limit so each vote counted as a fraction - RA got over 8k and Unity over 18k in terms of real votes but 

Adjusted  

UFC - 6837.15      29.20%

Unity - 16580.64  70.80%

Also note that in the 2021 RTC election, RA got just short of 7K real votes, also 29%.

Now the 2021 result, just as the Medicare story was emerging, was a big improvement for RA over previous elections when they used to get under 4K -- 20%. That ARISE only pulled half of RA got in 2021 is shocking. 

In past elections, we would have seen a 53% Unity retiree vote as giving us a real shot to break their control because historically they had been winning with high 70s to 80s %. But times have changed. This time RA hoped that the way they ran the RTC chapter compared to the Unity old guard would bring votes but that had no effect as the 3k total takes us back to 2018 days.

The Chapter elections are not quite the same but are also indicators. What a difference in last year's vote, which saw a massive turnaround when Retiree Advocate, the 30-year old oppo to Unity in the retiree chapter, blew things open with a 63% win with over 17k to Unity's 10k votes, a complete reversal of recent elections. 

How do we explain these flip flops? One word - MARIANNE. She has activated a whole range of people from many city unions, which is what scares the UFT leadership. And frankly, an uncontrolled newly active group also seems to scare the old-time oppo who are often more interested in control and getting the "right" people - meaning, of their political persuasion. God forbid a Trumpie should slip in. 

RA has got to change from a tiny self-chosen group that meets and makes decisions behind closed doors.

I've been part of the Retiree Advocate organizing committee for about ten years and it's been a very satisfactory relationship - until this election where I was the only one of the dozen members to go with ABC while the rest went with ARISE. I'm not going into the details as they get annoyed if I reveal what happens at their meetings, which by the way is a problem for a group that calls for transparency and represents retirees, most of whom are not aware or invited to these meetings or even see minutes of what is discussed.

Now we were all very happy for the arrangement we had where we chose whom to invite to join us - and until we won the massive victory over Unity with 63% of the vote last June when people who ran (300 delegates) or voted for us started asking questions on how we operate. At first, back in July, I defended how we operate but it was clear RA would have to do something to expand the organizing committee which I thought would happen in 6 months. But then the division in the election came along and RA Org decided to join ARISE without any discussion with its supporters, especially the 300 who ran as delegates. 

Look at the numbers. Unity won back about 3k which I expected to happen and thought it might be worse. We won unity votes a year ago but while they might be ok in losing the chapter they were not willing to hand over the entire union yet. But together we still got 46%. Also thousands of retirees who voted last time didn’t vote. Those were our potential votes. 

Let’s get them back. 

 

Election Reaction - Statement from A Better Contract

Hey folks. I just want to thank all of you that chose to support this slate. Although we didn’t win, we knocked Unity down from 66% in 2022 to 54% this time around. We're chipping away at Unity's choke hold on UFT... Comment from an ABC candidate

Sunday June 1

For a brand new group of people getting a third of the vote is a decent showing. If not for some unforced errors we might have gotten close. 

But we will try to examine where we missed. But also examine the strengths. Building the plane while flying it is tough but also fun. What does this say about the caucuses and their outreach after decades of existence? But do watch the spin. I know there are demands to come together. Can you mix a caucus based group with the free-style ABC? I don't think easily but ABC always has a welcome mat out for anyone interested.

I left the count Friday night at 7:30 to catch the last ferry to Rockaway under the assumption they would count until 1-2AM to get it done, but when I got home there was a new plan- to stop and continue Saturday morning.  

So I shlepped back on the 8AM ferry, stayed until 1PM - and still no results until our intrepid reporters sent out the results around 2PM. Our crew to the right. 

UFT Election Results - 46% say NO to Unity (Slate only): Unity 54%, ABC 32%, ARISE 14%

We Are Down But Not Out: Unity wins again, but by the lowest margin in their history ---- Arthur reported on his experience on Saturday. 

Now, there's a lot to mull over but I admit to being somewhat surprised to see the positive reactions from so many ABCers who expected to win this election. I thought they might be crushed and disappear but holy cow, they seem rearing to go back to the fray - well, maybe take a week or so off. In the past, the usual suspects from the oppo - usually an alliance of caucuses, went their separate ways and let two years go by before realigning for the next election. Since ABC is an alliance of individuals, this separation may not happen and there's a lot of excited back room chatter on next steps. Hard to say, given the loose structure of ABC.

I loved the comment from one of our retirees who said on Friday that she loved running with ABC and felt so welcome and heard, unlike being associated with RA where she felt left out. 

There is a lot of hand wringing from the same people who wanted one slate and felt we could have beaten Mulgrew. They refuse to understand that the only way there could have been one slate would have been under the ARISE caucus driven formula -- how did that work out? Don't forget --- ABC always offered everyone the opportunity to run with ABC and will do so in the future. Those who want one slate go talk to the 14%ers.

Sorry, after all the scurrilous attacks by some ARISE leading lights, some just a few days ago, I'm not in the mood to be magnanimous.  

I can only say how happy I was to be involved with the people from ABC. We were serious about trying to win rather than running to try to make a point about where we stand politically but also had a lot of fun with each other. We were attacked for not talking about Trump enough -- like talking about para pay or how teachers were under attack or retiree healthcare were attempts to appeal to Trump supporters. Give me a break. I call bullshit in advance at what will be some of the bitter people in ARISE who will try to blame ABC as a way to cover for their failures.

Now let me point out, the bitter people in ARISE are the few. More than a few may seek to work with ABC but their caucus structures will be an obstacle. I will get more into those structures and delve into why two 30 and one 13 year old caucuses with all their supposed outreach could only muster 14% after spending a lot of money and energy on this campaign, while an ad hoc group of individuals that spent maybe 2 grand managed to get a third of the vote. What do these outcomes auger for the future? I will delve into these issues very soon. 

 

Statement from A Better Contract: This Campaign Changed the UFT

A Better Contract

May 31, 2025

The results are in. While our slate did not win this election, what we built together will outlast any ballot count.

From the beginning, we knew what we were up against: a well-funded machine with decades of institutional control. But we had something they couldn’t manufacture—member energy. Across chapters and titles, UFT members showed they were ready for change.

A Better Contract was never just a slate. It is a movement. And that movement has reshaped this union’s political landscape. Secretaries, paraprofessionals, school nurses, teachers, clinicians, retirees—thousands of members organized their schools, reignited chapters, and took ownership of our union’s future. For many, this was their first time participating. It won’t be their last.

We ran on the belief that this union belongs to its members. That leadership should be earned, not handed down. That our contracts should reflect the real value of our work—not serve as placeholders while our conditions erode. And that power grows through connection—not control. Our union isn’t a ladder with a few at the top—it’s a living network, strengthened by every relationship, every act of solidarity, every member who refuses to stand alone.

That belief is now shared by more members than ever before.

We are proud of what we’ve done. Proud to have shifted the narrative. Proud that demands for transparency, democratic reform, and member-led bargaining—once silenced or dismissed—were brought into the open, debated, and embraced by members hungry for a different kind of union.

So we’ll say this plainly: we’re watching. We all heard the promises Unity made during this campaign—for paras, for retirees, and for those working in Tier 6, to name just a few. Those promises were born of pressure from facing a viable challenge for the first time in UFT history, and they will be met with accountability. The membership demands that Unity now deliver.

This campaign has changed the UFT. It awakened members who had long been disengaged. It connected voices across boroughs, titles, and schools. It reminded all of us that organizing works and that no amount of money or messaging can stop a union whose members are ready to lead.

None of this would have been possible without our supporters, who have from the start been the heart of our efforts. “Member-driven” isn’t just a slogan for us, it’s an ethos. To everyone who voted for the change we offered, we offer you the sincerest and most heartfelt of thank yous.

We may not have won this round. But we’ve already won something bigger: a shift in what’s possible.

In Solidarity,
The A Better Contract Slate

Here is one other point of view:

I’m proud to have run with ABC. We stood for member driven democracy, transparency, honesty. We did change the narrative and hopefully more will be listening and waking up. Than you for all the hard work everyone put in! Let’s keep the message out there.

Win or lose,, you are the best. The fight persists.

This is not the result I wanted. Just know I promise to be here with you for the fight. I believe in ABC!

An abolitionist minister, Theodore Parker, stated that "[t]he arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice." Congratulations on taking the longer view, the unselfish road, the path toward justice for all members.

I'm very sad. Thank you for organizing. Thank you for running. When is the next election? In three years? There is time. There is hope. Always. Always. ABC!!!

We gave it our all. There’s always tomorrow. Never give up. Thank you

Live to fight another day. I find it hard to understand why we lost since Mulgrew clearly did not act in the best interest of the retirees and longterm he did not act in the best interest of the active members. This might have been the first but it will not be the last time Mulgrew makes a malevolent decision.

Well that means arise only got 14 percent. I don’t understand why Mulgrew got 54% of the votes. I wish people would come to their senses.

I hope the next election ABC and ARISE can unite against unity caucus.

I am very sad and thank you for your support.

 

UFT Election Results - 46% say NO to Unity (Slate only): Unity 54%, ABC 32%, ARISE 14%

 Lots to analyze and break down. We could have swamped the HS if we had run some joint candidates. ARISE might actually win a seat of two if individual votes come through. But overall, the ARISE coalition did very poorly. ABC which as a new group matched and in some areas exceeded what UFC did 3 years ago, had decisions to make as to whether to continue working together. Overall, I'd say people really had a good experience.

I'm planning an ICE forensic analysis in person on Juneteenth. We will also do a zoom. 

More later.  

 

Unity won the election. Here are the unofficial results. Certified results will be available later.

Overall ballots sent - 201,791

58,318 registered

413 voided/empty envelopes
57,905 valid ballots

1,946 booklets of individual votes still being counted

55,959 slate votes


ABC - 17,874 32%
Unity - 30,219 54%
Arise - 7,866 14%

Elementary:
ABC - 2,897
Arise - 1,241
Unity - 5,967

MS:
ABC - 619
Arise - 520
Unity - 1,536

HS:
ABC - 1,472
Arise - 1,769
Unity - 1,985

Functional:
ABC - 3,889
Arise - 1,305
Unity - 7,158

Retirees:
ABC - 8,997
Arise - 3,031
Unity - 13,573

 

UFT Election 2025: ARISE - A Forensic Analysis - Will ARISE Demise? And What About ABC?

Prediction from John Q. Teacher: ARISE will get about 20% of the vote. Unity will get 40% and ABC will get 30% of the vote. Thus, Unity still wins. I have been saying this for a while. Having two groups such as ARISE and ABC will cause a Unity victory and I am not happy to see that happening. Hope I am wrong..... 

Unity will break 60% closer 65%. .... Anon

Comments on "Proposal from MORE to ABC Coalition (Oct. 2024) - Why This Agreement Favors MORE Caucus and Hurts Broader Union Democracy ":

Friday, May 30, 2025

Yesterday, as predicted, was a dud in terms of election results - even worse than I predicted due to the expected complications of in-person, mail, dealing with the large number of booklets vs single slate voting. They did count the in-person with estimates that around 1200 voted, and from what I could see from the screens, Unity won that vote overwhelmingly - looked like 65-70% to me. But that was expected. I was in and out all day with a noon doc appt and then at 5 to the rally on immigration at Tweed where there was a big crowd.

 

But today they are ready to start the serious scanning of the mail ballots -- we have no number on returns - we were told north of 50K. But how far north is a key as 50K is still on a quarter of the 200k ballots.

 

I'm heading down soon for the day which may stretch into Saturday. We won't know official results until sometime next week. We can only detect trends.

 

Here are the scenarios and at this point I can't do much speculation other than to say ABC has a shot and ARISE will not win.

Unity wins with 60-65% along the lines of the 2022 UFC election.

Unity wins but with lower totals ever: low 50s%

Unity wins small: Under 49%

ABC wins - if so it will be small

ARISE wins - I see no path

 

If Unity hits over 60%, that is a tribute to the campaign they ran that was aimed at getting out their base. They were desperate, because, you know, going back to the classroom was possible of they lose. But if the win with under 50%, that is a major warning sign that the end is near - if the opposition can get their stuff together -- always problematical.

But before we know results, as ballots start flying through the scanners, we can't help but look to the future, which has many different possibilities depending on the outcome. I will address the future of ABC which could go from bye-bye to vibrancy after the results. One thing was proven - that an ad hoc group of individuals with a wide range of political views - with a "leave your personal politics at the door" attitude, showed they could put together a slate of 550 candidates and run a campaign, a campaign that annoyed the hell out of both Unity and the usual loyal opposition.

What about the future of ARISE? Let's look at the components of the ARISE coalition, which has some similarities to United for Change from 3 years ago, but also some differences. My premise is that each caucus has different interests and after the election will focus on pursuing those interests. And as long as there are multiple caucuses pursuing their interests, and only coming together every 3 years for elections, Unity will prevail. 

ARISE is smaller in size down from 7 voices to 3 and they have learned a few lessons from the mistakes of UFC. Three caucuses made for easier decision making than 7. Let's not forget - before ARISE arose, there was the bigger ABC in formation which I wrote about the other day: Proposal from MORE to ABC Coalition (Oct. 2024) - Why This Agreement Favors MORE Caucus and Hurts Broader Union Democracy

Before the split, the group that became ARISE pushed the idea of structure as a necessary precursor which to the ABC component, which was like a wild horse trying to break out of the barn, meant control. And limits on what type of campaign could be run. Even a modest proposal to allow committees to funtion somewhat autonomously led to a hysterical reaction with screams of "you are trying to gut the power of steering." That was the final straw when ABC found out that the major 4 page proposal from MORE was being given careful consideration by the very same people who attacked ABC for its modest offer.

Anyway, let's look at those components.

New Action was founded in 1995 in a merger of two long-time caucuses, Teachers Action Caucus (TAC) - late 60's and New Directions (1975) and through 2001 won the high school exec bd seats. C. 2002, NAC began to cooperate with Unity Caucus and worked in tandem for UFT elections through the 2013 elections before breaking with Unity in 2016. During that 12 year period, NAC lost the bulk of its support, especially from active members and became more and more of a retiree-laden group. They recouped some in-service support from the 2022 election but are still very retiree dependent.

New Action has the most to lose if ARISE finishes last as they have claimed that only the caucuses and with their history and experience, could run a campaign. Thus some of them have been the most vicious in attacking ABC, which presents an existential threat to them.

MORE: Due to the NAC deal with Unity, two new groups, ICE and TJC ran against them both from 2004-10 before coming together with other groups to form MORE in 2012. A faction in MORE pushed out the ICE people in 2018 and MORE slanted traditional left. MORE is the biggest opposition group and is very school based and can withstand any outcome in this election and still hold its own. A significant portion of MORE did not even want to run and if ARISE finishes a poor last, will become more ascendant in MORE. That will make MORE less likely to want to continue to work within the ARISE group after the election.

Retiree Advocate: A 30- year old group that was a spin-off of NAC but separated in order to attract new people -- I and some others from the ICE wing of MORE plus people picked up during the rallies against MedAdv. Currently around 12 people, of which I am one. We call ourselves the RA Organizing Committee. Last year's major victory over Unity in the RTC election gave people hope we could beat Unity this time, but for me has made some serious errors in how they decided to join the ARISE group without going outside the dozen. I was the lone dissenter, urging them to remain neutral and try to play the role of mediator to try to bring ABC and NAC/MORE together before ARISE even AROSE. 

RA is not really a caucus because it has no formal membership and we are talking about how to change that but bad feelings about this election will not go away very quickly. RTC CL Bennett Fischer, who I support, even when I disagree with him, has the potential to keep things together.

In the meantime, RA is very tied in with running the RTC --- 8 of the ten officers are RA and I am on the RTC Exec Bd.  

Well, time to go off to get the results and look for a follow-up to this post once we know more.