TRS Election Pre-Outcome Analysis

Good news. No matter the outcome of the TRS election, David Kazansky will continue to do his workshops. See his video here.

A Bronx school

Friday, May 15, 2026

I'm about to head into Manhattan to prep for my Murray Hill tour tomorrow at noon. May 16 is Park Ave Festival where they close the southbound streets from 42 to 34 St. There will be all sorts of goodies and booths, including IMx Pilates on 39th and Madison, my new favorite place to exercise. But first I wanted to get these comments out before I drown in trying to analyze the TRS election.

The DOE run TRS election is over after the May 13 balloting in the schools in an election run by the DOE - how competent do you think that was? Well, depending on the school and principal. Any candidate and voter, or those denied the opportunity to vote (the rule was to vote after school only - and many could not stay) can probably find loads of reasons to protest the way it was run in some schools. I do know from the ABC chats that the active Kazansky people made sure the elections were run as correctly as possible in their schools by feeding the principal the correct info and keeping a close eye on the process. Reports from Unity-dominated schools are sketchy but the intense pressure from the leadership to get a big turnout for Tom Brown worked in some places and failed in others. The ABC crew seems to have done an amazing job for Kazansky from results I've seen, with 80-90% for him in some schools while in Unity schools the results for Tom Brown are more in the 50s and 60s. Frank Panebianco is also getting some votes but I heard of only one school where he won outright.

A May 13 post by A Better Contract titled DAY & NIGHT chronicled a comparison of the May 11 TRS Zoom held by ABC with about 170 people with the Mulgrew Town Hall.

The author, HS CL Thomas Hasler, who I met in MORE many years ago and now seems to be aligned with ABC, made a number of excellent points and I urge you to read his comments which I will post in a follow-up. He captured the essence of how the ABC crew operates:

The difference between Monday night’s ABC Town Hall hosted by Amy Arundell, a true leader, and David Kazanksy, the candidate for TRS Trustee, was in stark contrast to yesterday’s “Town Hall” hosted by President Mulgrew and the official UFT. The difference could not have been more like DAY and NIGHT. At ABC’s Town Hall on Monday, members were allowed to ask questions on their own in an open forum. At Mulgrew’s meeting yesterday, it was the OPPOSITE.

I will point to one more of his comments:

Chapter Leaders were told to send a picture of the election tally sheet from their school to their UFT District Rep. This seems like an attempt to pressure UFT chapters to vote a certain way. Or it could be interpreted this way.

This seemed to confuse a retiree who has been an oppositionist for decades who asked:

Just curious.  How does the request from the UFT that C/Ls send  a picture of the school’s tally sheet to their district rep represent pressure to vote a certain way?  Should the DOE be the only ones who see the schools tally sheet?

My response:

It is a method for unity to hold CL accountable if Brown doesn’t do well. 

The firings seemed to work as district reps have pressured people to push Brown. 

They were never threatened with losing until recently so elections weren’t viewed as life or death matters. David and Frank candidates represent a real threat as former Unity with a following. 

But in the end all candidates get a tally sheet of all schools that will indicate unity strengths and weaknesses as it will for oppo movements. 

I had been asking for such tally sheets in general uft elections but have been turned down. 

What happens to Unity CLs in schools where Brown only wins in a close race or loses? I'm betting on district reps and those CL being called out. And I've heard the outcomes of some of these schools. 

[Excuse the redundancies in this piece since I've been writing it for 3 days and am sick of editing it.]

Officially, the legacy caucuses (RA, NAC, MORE) sat this one out. though some individuals from New Action were involved, including Ben Morgenroth who ran as David's alternate. ABC immediately backed David, who was not part of ABC, but hoping he will be in the future. People were pretty impressed with his talents. His and  Leah Linn videos made a splash. Between them they have a large following I believe over 10k. The ABC view is to challenge the ruling Unity caucus on all fronts, all the time, while the legacy groups are always calculating how to be "strategic," the sense of being too aggressive will turn off the "normies" (not me). My disagreement with them over the past few years is that the revolt of the retirees and the paras in the 2024 elections was a call for more militancy rather than pacivity. 

Some important history related to David given some backbiting over his past. Mulgrew removed him from TRS 2 years ago for being too independent and replaced him with a total incompetent loyalist. The so-called oppositionist backbiters neglect to see there is a bigger struggle to remove Unity from power that includes poaching dissatisfied Unityites. I have thought for 30 years that a break in Unity was crucial and that break is occurring. I think this election will bring over some Unity people who resented the pressure. 

MORE officially took a no endorsement position because their ideology calls for a focus in divesting in Israeli bonds - they are behind the Educators for Palestine group. But individuals in MORE did see the impact of defeating Mulgrew's hand-picked candidate. In fact, since the 2025 election, a faction of MORE has been reaching out and working with ABC and some results coming in from schools with MORE CLs and contingents have favored David. There is a split in MORE between those wanting to be involved in UFT elections and those who don't and given the 14% ARISE received in the election, the no-election faction may have gained some power. An alliance of the pro-election faction with ABC makes a lot of sense because RA and NAC do not offer a punch at the in-service level. In fact, such an alliance could actually win the 2028 UFT election.

Will the hate ABC ideologues that were connected to ARISE rise once again as a spoiler in two years to try to assure Unity control of the UFT? If MORE officially sits that one out and allows the pro-election faction to ally with ABC, there is less chance of that happening.

What the legacy caucuses don't get is that we must take every opportunity to force Unity to defend itself in the electoral arena and the yearly TRS election had been neglected for decades until 2 years ago and I'm proud to be part of the team (pre-ABC) to have helped organize these elections and I hope next year and the year after there will be candidates to try to take down the Unity TRS candidate under the control of the UFT leadership.

Despite the 3-way TRS race, people in ABC still give David a chance to win, though given the 30k petitions turned in by Unity for Brown (David vs Unity Goliath in TRS Election) it looked like the machine was in operation. Yet, from the reports I was getting, David was holding more than his own.

Let's see what the combined totals of David and Frank come out to. If over 40%, given the rigor Unity exerted, that is a danger sign for them and bodes well for defeating them. 

Don't forget, retirees and non-TRS members (ie BERS pension) can't vote, but PSC and CSA does vote. 

This election is a test of sorts of the strength of the leadership which went all out. If Brown gets 70-80% of the vote, it bodes well for the leadership --- signs Unity may have stopped the bleeding. If under 60%, danger signs will be blinking. It is also a test of  ABC, the only organized force in the UFT officially involved in the election.

ABC Rocks as threat to Unity hegemony grows

An important aspect of this election has been the re-emergence of the ABC network with new people like David and others, showing ABC is still alive and vibrant. Some schools with nominal Unity CLs came in heavily for David and ABC is hoping for more migrations. We've seen former Unity people who had been locked up behind a closed door emerging like birds released from their cages. The Mulgrew firings of competent people have not only hurt and degraded Unity, but have fueled an enthusiastic opposition based in ABC and affiliated independents and even some from the legacy caucuses. Yes, some Unity are still scared, but for how much longer? The flow from Unity to ABC will continue, which is why Unity leaders view ABC as the main threat, as do the legacy caucuses which also see ABC as a threat to their influence.

The ABC network seems resilient after a post-2025 election lull and as part of the "We Trust David" chat, it was thrilling to see the level of openness, cooperation and organization in operation. The chat also included non-ABC supporters from other caucuses. It has been so much more of a pleasant experience working with an open group like ABC compared to working with the legacy caucuses, MORE and Retiree Advocate, which was such a closed group after they won the RTC election and only recently opened up - to those willing to pay $50 dues to get a voice. ABC is free and open.

The ABC crew and affiliates has been fabulous for brainstorming and moving agendas. Results coming in showed the ABC crew did an amazing job in getting votes for David --- only if we had more people in more schools. Also even in some Unity schools Brown is not winning with 80 or more %. The third candidate definitely hurts but not too bad. 

The ABC operation seems to have found a formula for organizing -- it is open and flexible unlike the legacy caucuses.  (Another wing of ABC also affiliated with independents has also been activated around the way the RTC is being run by RA and the upcoming RTC chapter election, a dynamic group that more and more people are joining -- yes, it's free.)

From what I saw from reports coming in yesterday, in some Unity schools pushing the heavy Brown vote, there has been some counter reaction to Unity oppression. From one school: People were getting sick and tired of being pushed to back one candidate.

We heard of more pushbacks against Unity pressure. In another Unity school, the vote went overwhelmingly for David which means exactly what? Maybe more hidden cracks. The Mulgrew terror campaign can only go so far.

In schools with Unity CL where David won handily, I can just imagine a new wave of firings or demotions. Yes, the firings last June did work on some Unity people. One district rep who was called in and threatened has apparently learned his lesson by banning some CL who backed David from his communication group.

Frank Panebianco, who is very well-liked and respected by everyone, including the ABC crew, was fired because supposedly TRS rep Victoria Lee wanted him out of the way because he complained to LeRoy Barr over her bossiness. (She is supposedly not well liked). She complained to Mulgrew. Mulgrew fired Frank but then rethought it and tried to hire him back. 

Frank thought he had put in the time and loyalty and wanted the TRS position when Mulgrew removed Kazansky two years ago but was jumped over by no-nothing Christina McGrath who shit the bed even worse than Tom Brown at an RTC meeting. They ran Lee the next year for the position, which Frank felt he deserved, a slap in the face.

Frank was willing to come back but wanted a raise, to be the next trustee and work out of the Bronx. Mulgrew wouldn’t agree to those demands so rather than accept his old job back, chose to go back to teaching. Give him credit for that. 

A Unity HS CL with an after school job whined to the staff about so many not voting, blaming them. It was his job to get them to vote and he blames them.

And then there were complaints on why people couldn't vote.

NOTE: If you managed to wade through the mess above, you get the weekend off.

ABC TRS Town Hall: May 11 @ 7pm -- A Better Contract

I was away on a tour of national parks and tried to keep up but internet was sketchy. The TRS election has all sorts of permutations and the "We Trust David" chat has been hot. I just don't have the bandwidth to get into all of it but if you attend the town hall tonight you (and I) will be filled in. I categorized Unity staff in the past as drones and have learned in working with former Unity like David that once freed of the cult they have a lot of skills. David has done a great job in organizing his campaign. Needless to say, the Unity machine leadership views this election as crucial and has pulled out all stops to promote its candidate as I reported in my April 22 report:  David vs Unity Goliath in TRS Election as Fear and Loathing Works

 

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ABC TRS Town Hall: May 11 @ 7pm

A Better Contract May 11

READ IN APP

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER
https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/lHRQhNwyQkid3fhGeuciww#/registration

This Monday (5/11) at 7PM: The TRS Town Hall Every UFT Member Needs to Attend

A Better Contract (ABC-UFT) is hosting a TRS Town Hall this Monday, May 11 at 7pm, facilitated by Amy Arundell. We’ll break down how the TRS election should be run and explain why every member needs to vote for David Kazansky.

Don’t miss this crucial chance to protect our future and take back our union!

THIS IS ABOUT YOUR PENSION

This election helps decide who has a voice over your retirement. David Kazansky is the only independent, member-driven candidate focused on protecting pensions without political pressure. Let’s show up and make our voices heard.

Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/lHRQhNwyQkid3fhGeuciww#/registration

Register for town hall

 

UFT DA and RTC Back to Back Meetings: The Stockholm Syndrome

Recent retiree: My first retiree meeting and I am appalled. 

Retiree delegate responds: Yes.  The only thing that could have made it worse would have been a Mulgrew visit and, I guess, a Tom Brown performance.  It made me want to cry.

Recently Retiree: Yes. It made me very sad. All that work to win a historic election and this is what they do with it. Arthur reports on DA and RTC

Retiree Michael Brocoum: I attended the RTC meeting at 52 Broadway. Bennett Fischer stated that The UFT is trying to deal with the copay issue. With all due respect that is laughable. Copays exist because of Mike Mulgrew. Mulgrew asked the City to institute copays to free up some money for active worker raises essentially pitting active workers against retirees. Additionally Bennet Fischer asked for people to man phone banks to support the UFT's (Mulgrew) pick for District 3 City Council. The union (Mulgrew) supports Carl Wilson. You can be sure that to get the UFT (Mulgrew) support he had to agree to not actively fight to protect retiree healthcare. I rose up to speak and asked attendees to vote for Layla-Law Gisiko who is supported by Marianne Pizzitola. We still have our traditional Medicare because of Marianne. Please vote for Layla-Law Gisiko and ignore any calls from the UFT phone banks.  Bennett Fischer was not pleased to hear my statement and criticized me for mentioning Mulgrew in this healthcare fight. Sad. 

Norm: Did you notice Bennett attacking Mike Brocoum for going after Mulgrew, labeling it as a personal attack -- the Unity crowd heckled Mike but no word from Bennett about them. What next, getting reprimanded for being critical of UFT policies? Could Bennett have objected to mentioning the "union Leadership that made the deal to force us into Medicare Advantage" or the "union leadership" that went to the city council to try to amend the law that guarantees health care coverage for all municipal employees and retirees and their dependents - to put retirees in a different category so they could force us into MA or make us pay for our Senior Care if we wanted to to stay in traditional Medicare?

Arthur Goldstein report of RTC Meeting: It was pretty remarkable to hear Bennett Fischer stop a speaker from saying that Michael Mulgrew imposed copays on us, deeming it a “personal attack.” That, in fact, is not a personal attack. It’s a statement that, as far as I know, is true. The copays were put in place to make his crappy Medicare Advantage plan look better. A personal attack would be saying your adversaries spout fairy tales. It would be saying some people can’t handle the facts. It would be saying your adversaries make everything a conspiracy, or that those who disagree with you are enemies of the union. Michael Mulgrew said all those things at a UFT Executive Board meeting I attended. 

Norm: Watching Bennett over the past year and a half, he bends over backwards to defend Unity and criticizes their critics - in public, while privately he will be critical. I can be the only one with my hand up and he will avoid calling on me because he's concerned I may go after Unity (which I will).  I've been Tom Murphyized by Bennett.  

Retiree Delegate after the meeting: I debated paying the $50 to join Retiree Advocate and decided not to. I paid what I thought were dues for years and found out I was not a member. I'm not giving them more money.

Friday, April 23, 2026 

 

Oy! Having spent 4 hours over 2 days at Albert Shanker Hall listening first to Mulgrew and then endless reports that chewed up most of the RTC meeting, I said thank goodness for the chips and oreo cookies. Above are some of the comments from retirees. I have a lot to say about both but not enough time to write it all down. So I will focus here on the DA.

 

Arthur covered both meetings remotely in depth. 

Unbelievable--April UFT Delegate Assembly: Michael Mulgrew and his Unity ducklings instruct us on just what we are and are not allowed to know.

Arthur Goldstein

Apr 22, 2026

At RTC Meeting, We Help Everyone But Ourselves: We've entirely dropped the ball.

Arthur Goldstein

Apr 23, 2026

Both meetings exposed the differences riling both retiree and active UFT members opposed to Unity Caucus. The ABC DA chat group during DAs is worth the price of admission (free). While I gnash my teeth at DAs, I don't expect very much from the Unity leadership. Or from the RA-RTC leadership and their dwindling core of delegates. One of the delegates I respect a lot resigned recently. People are saying "what's the point?" I'm thinking the same but go for the entertainment value.

 

Mulgrew will talk forever. A faux Unity unsigned reso will be placed on the new motion agenda. Most of the people called on will be full or part-time UFT staff. And even if a new motion from a non-Unity gets raised and even approved, it will get buried and put on the bottom of the agenda for the next month. Or year. Or decade.

 

There were a few big issues: 

David vs Unity Goliath in TRS Election as Fear and Loathing Works as Unity Delivers 30K Petition Sigs for Tom Brown

I'm not coming to the DA today because I resigned as a delegate. I couldn't take all the unkindness anymore.... A (former) retiree delegate.

One day I'll get into how Retiree Advocate and the RTC leadership frittered away the potential power of electing 300 retiree delegates, many of whom don't bother attending. I'm too dumb to get the message and I'm racing to finish this before heading off to another scintillating Delegate Assembly, or Derogatory Assembly.

I’ve worked with David (Kazansky) for nine years, and it’s been an absolute pleasure. We have had the opportunity to attend many meetings, travel around the country, you always attending the defined benefit pension plans. David has always acted as a true fiduciary, always had the interest of our members, any time we debated anything, he would always say, how would this benefit our members? He’s taken care of a lot of specific issues with our members, helping members..... Tom Brown 

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

I graduated from the 8 month training program at Brooklyn Botanic

Garden Tour guide program last week and here is the treat of the season there - but with more to come as spring moves on. Maybe see you there one day.

The Teacher Retirement System (TRS) race is one of the more interesting I've seen in the UFT. Recent discussions about investing pension funds in city housing and other investments have raised the issue of exactly what role our pension reps play on the TRS. Do they share investment info or strategies with the membership and if not why not?

David vs Unity. Goliath

David Kazansky Gets 2500 sigs, Frank Panebianco, 1400. Needed was 1,000. Kazansky had been a pension rep for 9 years before he was moved out by Mulgrew and subsequently fired. He is currently teaching elementary school in the Bronx. 

He is running as an independent with the backing of ABC as the only group to back him officially while the legacy oppo groups sit on their hands. (though some individuals have been on the campaign). Better dead than red is an old anti-communist theme. A version has infected the old legacy UFT opposition: Better Unity than opposition that doesn't meet the purity test. That is the theme of most of the oppo, which has been embalmed in a left wing ideological tomb for decades.

Panebianco, also back to teaching after being a UFT staffer fired by Mulgrew in a reign of terror. It seems to have worked, as the Unity machine saw the threat David presented and went hog wild in getting 31k signatures for Tom Brown, who is also a UFT officer. Unity is feeling enough heat to have run a massive campaign for Brown.

Of course petition signatures don't necessarily translate into votes when the election is held in a few weeks. Having third candidate Panebianco in the race certainly makes David's chances very slim. Is Panebianco a Unity stalking horse to assure a Brown win? Did they help him get the 1400 signatures? Sources say probably not. 

I'm actually pretty impressed with the campaign David has run - his approach and his organizational abilities - 2.5k sigs is pretty impressive and also shows that the ABC network is still operating. Note that petitions can be challenged and last year Unity managed to knock the opposting candidate off the ballot and no election was held. I don't imagine Unity will challenge Panebianco's signatures this time and David has too many sigs for a challenge to work but they may try to go after the main threat anyway.

There are 3 teacher pension reps, all for a 3-year term, staggered so that every year one of them has to run - if there is an opponent. For decades Unity has controlled all these positions and in fact there was never an election because no one ran against them. For many years I and others have advocated for someone to run against the Unity candidate. A victory or even a serious dent in the Unity vote would break the monopoly of the TRS teacher reps who are as subservient to Mulgrew's wishes as the Trump cabinet is to his. 

There are strict rules around the election process and the petitioning. The DOE, not the UFT, runs the elections in the schools on a day in early May. Ironically, retirees play no role in the election. Supervisors and college teachers can vote, so it requires a broad network. Two years ago, an hoc group of UFT members organized a vigorous campaign for a candidate who volunteered to run and with a tiny organizing effort he got a third of the vote. But Unity did not do a lot in that campaign.  We did not necessarily expect to win that election, but to use it as a learning experience for a future run. Last year there was a challenge on some minor issue and the candidate was knocked off the ballot. So this year is the first time of a real potential election. (Expect another election next year.) 

The election is run in the schools in one day by the DOE and the last one two years ago was so terribly run there was a law suit. Don't expect this one to be run much better. One interesting aspect it the results show how each school voted -- how many votes each candidate gets so there is a lot of room for analysis. Expect the Unity machine to hold its in school people and district reps accountable for the votes.

On the surface it may look like a slam dunk for Unity and it probably is. Now it's down to GOTV and let's see how well the candidates do. Unity might get 80% or 60%. Remember the 54% in last year's election. This will be a test of the Unity machine's GOTV operation, which a year ago was not too effective -- which I think led to the firings and warnings and even some demotions. But I will say that the tactics being used may work for a short time but fear and loathing of such tactics will lead to rising resistance. 

I'm working on a future blog titled: Will Unity defectors become the face of the opposition in the UFT? My thesis is - and actually has been for 30 years  - that Unity can never be beaten until there are cracks that lead to breaks -- and instead of trying to heal these cracks, Mulgrew has cracked down and over the long run -- those cracks and crackdowns will turn into an earthquake.

======

Afterburn: The Legacy Caucus sit on their hands

After initial reluctance, some key members of New Action supported the campaign two years ago, but MORE sat it out because their main concern is about BDS - dumping Israeli bonds. When I brought the issue to RA, one member refused to let them consider supporting the candidate over the potential BDS issue too. 

This year RA and MORE are again sitting it out, while there is some support from a few people in New Action. 

Ideology once again triumphs over winning, one reason the oppo in the UFT will always lose to Unity, which is already planning the 100th anniversary party of holding onto monopoly power in the UFT in 2062.

Election Thoughts - Mamdani and ABC Organizing, Finally, a UFT Win in a Mayoral Race, My Interview with Daniel on the '75 UFT Strike

The most important outcome of the Mamdani win, and why he represents a threat to the right and the corporate Dems, is the potential for building a movement of people ready to act using the 100k volunteers for his campaign. 

 

Full disclosure: I was one and am ready to take more action if called upon. People are reminded of Obama in 2008 and the movement he built - and then let dissipate after he won and thus had no way to call out troops to battle the rise of the tea party in 2010. The Majority Report with Sam Seder, my fave, talked about this yesterday, speculating it was the influence of authoritarian Rahm Emanuel, the anti-left, corp Dem supreme who will run for president, who made sure the voice of the people wouldn't interfere with the usual suspects who want to run the world.

 

The theme of this post touches on a theory of organizing related to elements of the Mamdani campaign and how I relate it to the ABC campaign on the fly last year where I find certain similarities based on not prioritizing  personal and organizational ideologies over checking the pulse of those whose votes you are trying to get. I compare that approach to that of the legacy caucuses, and I include Unity, where the ideology of the leadership - and make no mistake, they all are leadership run, some for decades by the same people.

 

Mamdani is a socialist but he didn't run on his socialism, though his socialism certainly has influenced his thinking. But no matter the attacks, you won't see him trying to take over the means of production, though I wouldn't mind it if the entire healthcare industry was taken over - wait, wait - like the NY Health Act.

 

My contention here is that ABC was member-driven in the recent UFT election and expects to continue on that track. 

 

Thursday, November 6, 2025

 

Hey - big news -- the UFT leadership finally got one right - though it would have been nice to see an endorsement before the primary. But the way the endorsement went down has led many UFT members to object and there was a lot of push back from non-Mamdani supporters ---- and this dovetails with the theme of this election analysis: Listen to people first - check the pulse and be guided by what you hear. 

 

Mamdani is being credited, even by some on the right, with doing exactly that and shaping his campaign around listening. There is some irony in the out and out support for Mamdani 

 

YES, the UFT won one and let's give some credit for jumping on a DSA train despite the previous attacks (Will UFT Endorse Mamdani after their attacks on DSA).

 

Check out some of my commentary over the endorsement in July:

 

UFT DA Tidbits - Endorsing Mamdani, ABC and ARISE/...

Today's DA and Yesterday Town Hall -- Ode to Hot A...

 

 

But first, a plug. 

 

The 1968 strike gets all the attention, but the 1975 strike was in many ways more consequential.

 

Here is a link to Sunday's interview with Daniel for "Talk Out of School" on WBAI. 

https://wbai.org/archive/program/episode/?id=61621. I finally listened to it this morning and I didn't make a total fool out of myself, so I'm sharing. 

 

It was my third strike with the UFT but my first as an activist. Sunday Daniel and I covered a lot of ground, including the opposition to Unity leading up to the strike, its impact - short and long term, my guess that the lessons were never to strike again, how the UFT descended from the most militant union in the early 60s, the 1995 and 2005 contracts, the divided opposition post-strike that continues today. Daniel's questions were excellent guides into a deep dive in my memory.

I still want to write in more detail using some of the resources from the 70s buried in my basement. 

Now on to some election thoughts related to our union work.

  

Mamdani Listened - Similar to ABC's Member-driven agenda -- 

 

Over a year ago, before anyone heard of Mamdani, A Better Contract/UFT decided to listen to the members and came under criticism from some members of the ARISE coalition. Ken Klippenstein touches on the Mamdani touch.

Ken Klippenstein - Mamdani's Magic

People’s comments were insightful for anyone who cared to listen. They were the message.

Zohran Mamdani won by literally meeting people where they’re at — in bodegas, subway stations, busy sidewalks, even at the New York Marathon. He met people on the streets, not to pitch them, but to listen and learn. These conversations informed his successful campaign more than his charm, social media prowess or any of the other superficial explanations major media are offering. ... 

The video stood out from usual campaign content in how little of it focused on the candidate. He didn’t “approve this message.” There were no gotchas, no fact checking his opponents, no issue-oriented rejoinders. Virtually every shot focused on the interviewee rather than Mamdani, whose face you could not even see at times. He just stood there, quietly listening to what people had to say. 

As Mamdani sees it, facing the public, even if it might heckle you, is part of the job of being an elected official. Obvious as this may seem, it is a more genuine and humble attitude ofthe Washington national figures who believe that their role as philosopher kings is to reign over and above the public. 

Mamdani’s view of a politician’s job contrasts sharply with the political establishment’s zero tolerance attitude toward risk.  Mamdani’s magic is his understanding that the masses are the message.

Yes. Fundamentally, Mamdani didn't emphasize his own ideology, though that played a part in his activism, but listened to people - yes, even those who voted for Trump.

Horrors. 

How often was ABC attacked by ARISE for "listening to people who voted for Trump" -- we were accused of trolling. And yes, there are some people (a few it seems) who may be Trump backers, and at times there may be some tension, but so far they don't feel shunned. ABC people seem to believe that the way to build a winning coalition if you aim to win an election in the UFT, is to be broad-based and non-judgemental.

Yet Mamdani, the darling of the leftists in ARISE, did the very same thing and built his campaign around the issues people were telling him concerned them.  Trust me, they will not learn a lesson. The ideology of most people on the left is baked into their DNA.

In the recent UFT election and beyond, an ARISE steering committee member and a caucus co-chair has persistently criticized ABC for not taking political positions on certain issues ABC deemed divisive and outside the bounds of a UFT election sphere - it was termed being "apolitical" rather than what it was -- member driven. 

 

In other words, we would focus our campaign on what we detected in the pulse of rank and file in our schools and out surveys - our colleagues - and beyond. Rather than apolitical, we would try not to let our personal ideological views take precedence.  The election results showed that was a potential winning strategy when we got 32% in a 3-way race, especially notable for a group of individuals that had existed for only a few months.

 

My criticism of the ARISE coalition and how they operated was that they took an opposite tack -- the ideologies of the leadership of the 3 groups in the coalition -- MORE, New Action and Retiree Advocate - would drive their campaign. If you weren't somewhere on the left, you wouldn't be very comfortable - and they did pretty much attract the left to run with them and in the election, leftists in the UFT were more likely to vote for ARISE. And 14% of the voters did vote for them. Does 14% give us an accurate picture of the left in the UFT? Since only 28% voted think of what that 14% represent. 

 

 

 Part 2

Well, I'm glad my usual pessimism didn't work out as I guessed 

43% Mamdani

39% Cuomo

18% Sliwa

 

The Sliwa collapse was significant and those votes had to go to Cuomo, so think of this -- Cuomo was probably in the low thirties and there may have been a late Trump bump. 

  

 

 

Yes Mamdani went over 50%, but barely and the combined vote against him would have made this a nail biter in a two person race. 

 

NYT Election Map - Look up your neighborhood - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-new-york-city-mayor.html 

 

 

My Rockaway neighborhood in Belle Harbor voted 10% for Mamdani, surpassed by Breezy Point's 7%, 186 votes, and I think I convinced a bunch of friends. That little blue area in Rockaway is Arverne (53%) Edgemere (57%) where I canvassed with 40 other mostly local volunteers. Note the solid Cuomo blocks in Staten Island through south Brooklyn, though Bay Ridge went for Mamdani and the northeastern Queens block. Also note the east side of Manhattan. My Murray Hill area went 59-36 for Cuomo. My politics are not safe anywhere.

 

I pushed back against the NYC Retiree attacks and pro-Cuomo position. He had stated he was opposed to Medicare Adv --and I trust a socialist on that issue more than his opponents. But now is a time to try to get our issue in front of him as 1096 will expire on Jan. 1 and a new bill will be needed. Some of his allies on the City Council do back the bill. However, DC37 and the UFT are opposed and he does owe them -- I have a lot more to say on the election but I have to catch the ferry for my painting class at the UFT - I'm shlepping a bunch of acrylic paints and art supplies - this artistic stuff can tire one out.

 

 

UFT Election 25 Dissection: ABC Broke New Ground, Just Not Enough to Win, While ARISE Dived

With indications that ABC will continue to function, I'm writing this analysis as a warning sign for the future of oppo in the UFT as I can foresee the divisions not going away and a similar two slate situation emerging again. I am making the case that only an ABC-like strategy and organization - or dis-organization of individuals can beat Unity. (On Thursday, June 19th, ICEUFT will meet in person to take a deep dive into the issues raised here.) 

That doesn't mean legacy caucuses go away and continue to do the work they do on social justice and other issues, but release their people to run with an ABC-like group while supporting the effort. Knowing the caucus-first mentality, don't expect this to happen on an organizational level, but I appeal to the individuals in the caucuses to think this through. 

 

ARISE spent thousands of dollars on campaign and a glossy flier (almost a work of art) and raced to hundreds of schools to stuff mail boxes, while ABC spend a minimal amount and focused on its people getting out the vote in their schools. 

 

If you are looking for the difference in outcomes, look at these numbers: 

 

ABC ran 560 candidates, 520 of them in the schools (about 40 retirees) while ARISE, despite bragging of the largest number of candidates in decades, had only 490 or so, with 140 retirees, a difference of about 150 in school people. Back in the fall when people were calling for both slates to unite, at least one ARISE steering committee member mocked ABC as being only 7 people and claiming ABC could not get a slate together and would have to come begging. That led to a mentality within ARISE that ABC would fail. 

Monday June 16, 2025 

 

I received a post-election call from a long-time major oppo left-leaning activist from years ago, who did not run in the election, praising ABC on the outcome of the election  - a group of individuals came together - people who had never worked with each other in the past - to win almost 18k and 32% of the votes - the largest oppo vote total in history despite another slate running. He was impressed. 

 

Another left-leaning non-candidate activist also was surprised at the 32% outcome. We had argued throughout the campaign over my contention ABC had a chance to win -- my odds were 10%. His were 1%. My position that ABC could win even with two slates, which was much mocked, while not proven, showed that it was possible. What I never considered was how poorly the legacy caucuses would do - and I even include Unity, given their 54%.

 

Losing by 22 points to Unity still put ABC closer to beating Unity than any oppo I can remember. During the campaign, Unity focused its attacks on ABC and some ARISE leaders from NAC and RA spent more time attacking ABC than Unity, and receiving much praise from Unity people for doing so. This is not to taint all of ARISE, most of whom, especially those in MORE, mostly refrained from attacks. I detected a sense of growing respect, despite differences, between some ABC and MORE people. From the beginning last summer, ABC was open to individuals from MORE running with ABC and some did and played an important role.

 

I've seen some comments from ARISE people talking about the two oppo groups lost to Unity, as if both outcomes were equivalent, thus burying the lead. ABC finished 22% points behind Unity while the ARISE legacy caucuses, despite decades of so-called organizing, finished 40% points behind Unity. 

 

A flip of 11% points between ABC and Unity would have put ABC in a tie with Unity. As people are already looking to 2028, keep this in mind. But don't expect the legacy caucuses to learn a lesson and some in NAC and RA, not willing to face the truth, attribute the difference to dirty tactics or social media or shady practices.

 

Back in December when everyone was going nuts over two slates running against Unity I put forth reasons I thought ABC had a chance of winning: UFT Elections: The Two Slate Solution - Keep Calm. Here were a few key takeaways then (in red) and my current response:

• I've maintained the only way to win this election with the prospects of building dynamic change into the UFT is by enlisting large numbers of working UFTers. Do not rely on retirees to win and dominate a fossilized union (yes I am one of these fossils.) The current configuration of the legacy caucuses unfortunately leads us in this direction.

There was an increase in turnout of 15% up to 28%. ABC needed closer to 33% turnout. For an upstart non-caucus based group, we did not get deep enough but showed a path to victory even with two oppos -- and even if we had run common candidates we would have lost in every area other than the 7 high school seats.

• The 63% retiree vote that the legacy caucuses are relying to deliver will not hold up for this election. In the 2022 UFT general election retirees won 29% -the same number they did in the 2021 RTC election. In the latter election word was out about the medicare situation - my biggest disappointment in that election was not seeing the retiree vote expand. That we didn't increase the retiree vote from the year before when few knew about the health plan changes. That led to me being pessimistic for the past June election. I was wrong. We ran a great campaign but the difference maker: Marianne. Where will she land in this election and if she doesn't get her people involved the retiree vote will drop significantly. Unity still won over 10k in the 2024 chapter loss. Expect that to hold and grow as Unity supporters may have turned on Tom Murphy as RTC leader but may not be willing to turn over the entire union to what will clearly be labeled a left-wing opposition run by legacy caucuses that they have fought for years. RA did not have a bad rep a year ago.

This prediction came through - Unity clawed back 3k votes to get 13K this time but ABC got 9K and ARISE 3k -- not enough to win the retiree vote but close. Clearly RA failed drastically in dropping from 17K a year ago but ABC getting 3x their total proved the influence of Marianne, something my pals in RA had been downgrading, thinking it was their organizing a year ago.  

• ABC is the non-ideological, non-sectarian option with people from every caucus, including Unity, so Unity retirees who know the score may go ABC, but not with a slate dominated with MORE candidates.  

Give me a check on this one. MORE has over 500 members. RA counted on its 300 delegates, who had no say in the choice to run with ARISE to come through. NAC has shown little presence in the schools and did not have faith in the possibilities of ABC and felt an alliance with MORE would make a difference. I argued the opposite to them, to no avail. 

•  The numbers from the UFC full frontal coalition vote in 2022 were not much different from the smaller MORE/NAC coalition in 2016. Why would this election be any different from the in-service vote (Mah Nishtanah), especially since what was UFC is diminished? Given the 2022 vote and reduced caucus coalitions, I maintain Unity would win the election if we were limited to a coalition run similar to UFC, which the legacy caucuses not even reaching the same levels of organizing that UFC, had reached. 

I wrote:

UFC's main success was the increased % for UFC but that was due to Unity drops which did not go to UFC. That dropped Unity vote just might shift into the ABC column due to the Unity presence in ABC.  UFC did not bump up the in-service vote or even the retiree vote in that election.  I contend that with a weakened UFC, these numbers will remain constant for the caucus coalition, with the only wild cards retirees. The only way to win is to go after the 80% who don't usually vote, not an easy task but that looks like the major initiative of ABC and to siphon off Unity votes.

Constant? I was wrong. I actually thought ARISE might get 20-25% and ABC over 30%. And I was wrong about Unity continued drops -- they really brought out their base and increased in every area other than High schools.

I used the 2022 outcome to base a lot of my theories and the numbers for ARISE were worse than they were for UFC, which I also predicted - that ARISE was a diminished UFC which had 7 or 8 components. Nick bragged that the trimmed down to 3 ARISE was so easy to work with. That's very nice and comfortable - for them. The "less is more" theory didn't work in this case. 

• Oh, but what about the retiree and para votes from last spring? They are not automatic and must be worked for. Fix Para Pay is aligned at this point with ABC. So Don't forget the 27k para potential vote. The in-service para vote, with 27k paras, long ignored by the opposition,  may prove more crucial than the retiree vote if we get turnout. Note: A key organizing strategy is taking direct aim at this vote with a plan to fight for para pay instead of the Unity policy of telling them to be happy they have a job.

So this point sort of worked out with 120 paras running with ABC but we had hoped to do much better despite tripling ARISE and getting 1500 more functional votes than UFC did in 2022. That was due mostly to paras but the Unity push for 10k para bonuses (a smart election ploy, still unrealized) worked and the hoped-for tap into the 27k para vote was only partially successful. ABC also aimed to tap into other functional areas like OT/PT and nurses and probably did. But the Unity campaign worked - compare 2025 to 2022.

 

• ABC with a drastic new approach to not just running in the election but open to taking the election-building process out from behind closed doors and get more rank and file involved - and it has been working. Sample: 100 showed for a zoom for paras and district 75 on Tuesday, and over 50 for a High School zoom Wednesday, including chapter leaders from large high schools, including some key people from Unity.That followed a general meeting with 260 people. Think each in-service having some kind of network outreach in their schools. ABC is building the broadest coalition and still invites all legacy caucus members and supporters to run on the ABC independent slate with no labels. Already some have signed up to run. Is it enough yet? No. But there's a long way to go before ballots go out in May and petitioning starting Feb. 12. And ABC has the petition king: ME.

Well, I was pleasantly surprised at how relatively easy the petitioning was compared to 2022, with loads of ABC retiree and active people coming out to assist. Even I underestimated the vigor of ABCers. The one snag, if you call it that, was how aggressive ABC people were in recruiting candidates in the final week which forced us to spend the final weekend processing them - every candidate needed wet signature which made things difficult. A delightful snag. If we had another week we would have run a full slate of 750.

• Almost 40% of Trump supporters in NYS are in a union and many of them in the UFT and also anti-Mulgrew. Many have been non-voters in the past. With an ABC option that is focused on bread and butter and without a leftist ideology reputation, they may vote. Some will say how dare you hope Trump supporters vote for you? How dare I run to win.   

ABC WAS WILLING TO TALK TO ALL UFT MEMBERS AND AVOIDS PURGES AND SHUNNING -  HORRORS!

 

ABC has been vilified for trying to keep communication open to a wide variety of UFT members and focused on what members felt were important in their schools. Some in ARISE bragged about how moral and progressive they were and branded ABC as right wing troglodytes despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of key activists had a long record of progressive politics. 

When you run to win, you have to be willing to listen to everyone and not set up ideological walls -- you know, not call fellow UFT members you disagree with "deplorable."   

 

In recent discussions during the vote count when I asked some of the ARISE people why run if you know you will lose, the response was to "get our ideas and visions out". The thinking is that long-term they can win enough progressives over. I respond that you will have little influence unless you can win and then have the full resources of the UFT to try to win people over in a democratic and transparent process. But running in elections is embedded in the DNA of caucuses and don't be surprised to see it happen again in 2028.

 

Unity bummed at how poorly ARISE did 

The biggest disappointment to Unity was how bad ARISE did as ABC emerged as the big oppo dog. For ABC, it should try to convince the independent minds in ARISE to work with ABC in the next election while also continuing to work with their caucuses which could still use the election process and save their resources to promote their positions. They could still put out a leaflet and flood the mail boxes while not running --- a position I advocated for MORE in my final days there in late 2018 before the 2019 election. That helped get me kicked out of MORE. 

Split in MORE - Results strengthen the "don't run wing"

Back in August/September when MORE was debating whether to run at all, run alone or run in coalition, a strong group of 35 out of 160 who voted (what happened to the 500 MORE members?) were against running in coalition "with people who do not share their values." That says a lot about MORE and the lack of GOTV. In the vote to accept the coalition only 70 MOREs voted. 

 

The pro-coalition group knew full well that NAC had little pull in the schools but did have a large group of retirees who would do the work. NAC believed MORE had the horses in the schools to pull out votes. RA was viewed by both as the big retiree dog and the failure on that end is clear. 

 

I will say that inside ABC, while not wanting to run in an election with a group having the MORE label, the feelings about individuals in MORE have not been negative while there is a lot more people pissed off at NAC and RA. A lot of the ABC crowd are thankful to the people in MORE for informing them of the urinal attack on Amy. I think on the person to person level we may see some cooperation on common issues. 

 

 

NEXT: I will breakdown the elem, ms and hs results. 

 

Future of the Dem Party 

Is Randi moving left? Randi Quits DNC -- 

 

And these articles:

https://post.substack.com/p/whos-going-to-run-new-york?

https://rosselliotbarkan.com/p/the-collapse-of-the-professional?

https://rosselliotbarkan.com/p/the-three-factions-of-the-american?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/22/the-making-of-the-new-left