UFT Election 2022 is officially over: Norms Numbers - The Big If - Retiree Turnout

Monday, May 9, 8 AM  - The UFT election just officially ended. The vote count begins tomorrow at 8 AM. I intend to be there for the entire time.

And how about that party coming up win or lose. Celebrate the coalition and working together.

So this is my last chance to make a few predictions without having people call me a defeatist. I'm going to take a shot at making some educated guesses.One thing to note - newbies in UFT elections are always amazingly optimistic, while old timers are much more realistic. But we are warned not to share our true views so as not to discourage people. But with the election over, I can let loose.

I'm usually pretty good at predicting outcomes based on past history but this year things are different for a number of reasons, which I delved into in my 3 part "Why is this election different series:

• How UFT Election2022 is different? Reasons #5 Unit...
• How is UFT Election2022 different? - Reasons #3 Mu...
• How is UFT Election2022 different? Reason #1 UFC g...

Of course  the Winner is..... the garbage can caucus - people who throw the ballot in the garbage consciously or unconsciously  since non-voters will be an overwhelming majority. There's a new wrinkle this year I had never realized - enormous numbers of people who never got a ballot and never even realized there was an election going on. 

If turnout is as usual, look for a bigger win than expected for Unity. Less than in previous years, but in the 70% range. In 2016 Unity got about 40K votes and oppo got around 13k. That's a pretty big gap to close if turnout is the same.

The retiree vote is the focus of attention: 60k mailed out (How many actually got to people?) 2016 turnout 37%

The major hope for UFC has been that the 85% pro-Unity retiree vote won't hold this time due to MulgrewCare. But the question is how deep do Unity losses go? 

In order to look at potentials, we must start with a base and we use 2016 (2019 with 4 caucuses running was anomaly). In 2016 we had MORE/NA vs Unity as slate vs slate, with Solidarity not attaining slate status, but still in the race. Note the low turnout numbers, especially in the in-service divisions.

As you can see in the chart below from 2016 (thanks to Jon Halabi),  24,500 retirees voted and with the 23.5 max limit, each vote counted for .95ish.  Unity got 20K and oppo 4k. Unity got just over 20K from the entire working corps. So 50% of their vote was retirees.

So let's look at the possibilities in the retiree vote. In last year's retiree chapter election, just as the news of MulgrewCare was breaking, Retiree Advocate (RA) for just short of 7K (30%) and Unity got around 16K, compared to 2016, some serious slippage but way short of being a major difference maker in this election. There's too much ground to make up in the working divisions.  Turnout in 2016 was 37% so there's a chance for over 40%.

A key is turnout since anything above 24K will lean hard to UFC due to MulgrewCare. So retiree returns are a key. 

Ballots not received or put aside

I had been fairly optimistic of an increase in the 27-30K range, but in the past few days grew a bit discouraged.

I found that out last night when I called a former colleague to wish her a happy birthday and asked if she voted and she said "for what?" She never got a ballot. Now if there electronic voting like we requested, she still would have had time to vote before the Monday 8AM deadline.

I had the same issue with a retiree I met the other day who did have her ballot but thought she had time to mail it until Monday. Two lost votes for UFC. Unity sure knows what it is doing when it comes to vote suppression. My former colleague who is not union political said on tonight's call: They (Unity) sound like Republicans.

So let's call it an uptick in retiree vote output and let's add some Unity pissed off over MulgrewCare voting for UFC. Don't forget that Unity Caucus is massive, with retiree outposts all over the country pushing their propaganda. I'd bet one third of retirees have links to Unity. But if that 30% vote last year is a base, we have to see some expansion. Just how much above 30%? If it's 40% of retiree votes and say 26K vote, that gives UFC over 10K and Unity 16K, still too big a difference to make up. If it broke 14k Unity and 12K UFC, then it gets interesting. But in the real world it has to be bigger than 2016. Say 40-45%? That gets interesting.

The High School Vote: 22K mailed out, 7 ex bd seats at stake: 2016 turnout 20%

This is where UFC has its best chance. Unity has not won the high schools on its own since 1993 (they lost in 1991 and in 1985 too). They only won in 2007,10, 13 with New Action help. HS wins used to be as high as 3400 when the oppo was very strong in the then big schools, especially in Manhattan. But the big school breakup has helped drive down union interest, though that didn't help Unity much.

In 2016, when NAC switched sides, MORE/NA won with 2275. Add over 100 for Solidarity and we start with a base of 2,400. Unity got under 2100. So, starting with these numbers as a base, turnout is again the issue. If HS turnout is the same, it is a horse race, with UFC slightly favored. 

Unity ran a hard HS campaign

But this time Unity campaigned harder in the high schools than it has in 20 years. In the past they seemed content to give the hs to the oppo - 7% of the ex bd looks a little democratic - very little while 100% of the ex bd for Unity looks Russia like. But this time they want to stamp out the opposition or at least divide it. In 2016 a key block of votes came from Francis Lewis HS where I was involved in a GOTV campaign. With Arthur's switch to Unity, that will pull votes away from UFC in that large HS. Swap 100 votes and the election is even.

UFC also ran hard HS but did they GOTV?

But counter to that is that UFC also ran a hard HS campaign with a lot more people in a lot of high schools running in the election. The key is how well they did in getting the people in their own schools to vote. For me this is the great mystery. 

At times UFC people seemed more enamored of social media than the in school door to door GOTV. And don't forget that with the spring break and the limited time to get replacement ballots, the GOTV is up in the air. UFC HS people did go out and leaflet other schools, which I don't count on making as much a difference as rousing your own building. 

I really have no feel for how the GOTV went. If we win by a hair -- that is status quo - the usual election. If we win big - over 55%- that is a sign. Usually 5k HS vote. If it goes to 7K or above that is good for UFC. If 6K HS people vote, that would be a win for UFC. Maybe a bigger win than expected. If 5K it's 50-50. If god forbid it turns into a big win for Unity - say 55% -- then I leave this election scratching my head and retiree immediately from UFT politics.

If we lose the HS it is a bomb for UFC and I don't know if the coalition survives. After all that work and win nothing? People may just go back to their own caucuses, a win for Unity.  

Does turnout hit 30% or even 25?? That would be a potential big win for UFC, but could also reflect Unity increased turnout. 

Prediction based on word of mouth - narrow win for UFC besed on precedent and larger force in the hs. But low turnout would be a condemnation of election tactics.

One more note. HSVP Janella Hinds is popular but she can also get less votes than the UFC HS people out of the hs -- she would win due to non hs votes. Does it hurt her if UFC wins the HS? She is considered a strong contender for next UFT president, is popular with many high school teachers -- but they are not the majority of the union. See below for my comments on elem vp Karen Alford -- who by the way I was on a committee with back in 1999 when Randi set up a charter school committee under the chair of then Elem VP Michelle Bodden - than also a rumored Randi successor who disappeared into the UFT charter school with Mulgrew taking the role --- Randi's biggest mistake - among many.

Middle Schools - What is possible? 11k ballots out. 4 Ex bd seats, 2016 turnout 24%

These are only grades 6-8 schools and 4 Ex Bd seats on the line. 

Some people thought the middle schools were winnable this time. We certainly made it a point to flyer as many large MS as possible -- but as I've said, flyering has much less impact than having a person on site and I didn't see enough UFC middle school people to close the gap.

In 2016 Unity got only 1650 - 61% and oppo got only 860 for MORE/NA and almost 200 for Solidarity. If turnout goes up to 30%, can the oppo close the gap? It's a 600 vote difference so with big turnout is closeable.
Definitely Unity is favored here but I would expect a closer election - maybe 55% for Unity? If UFC gets in the 50-50 range, that ie an echo of 1991, the only time the oppo won both hs and ms.

Elemantary: 36k ballots, 26% return in 2016

I started this election telling people we could win the elementary schools if we formed a strong committee and worked target districts where we have strength. 

It didn't happen and there is not only no chance to win, but a potential big blowout for Unity. I saw some fire in the eyes in a few elementary people but mostly a flicker.

However, hope springs eternal. I was a proud elementary school teacher and often hear high school oppo people disparaging remarks - even some people wanted to break the high schools out of the union. But the turnout in elem was considerably higher than high schools.

Look at the 2016 numbers. Unity had over 7K votes - 74%. MORE/NA 2300 and Solidarity 200. That's a serious gap and my hopes were to close that down to a reasonable number that could be bridged in the next election. Unity CL and their district reps driving them dominate elementary - I'd bet every single mail box got a leaflet. Most didn't get UFC so have no concept there is a UFC. 

But let's play the output game. What if it goes over 30%? Increased output is better for UFC but with the relative weakness in elementary schools I'm not so sure.

Start with a Unity base of 7k and an oppo base of 2500. 5K would be a doubling and a victory of sorts for UFC if Unity stays at 7K or falls below. A drop to 5k for them would be a sign that despite no campaigning, the impact of Covid and the UFT response had a big effect. Plus other failures on the part of Unity.

One note - Elem VP Karen Alford is my pick for succeeding Mulgrew is the overall election goes bad for him -- like under 60%. And a big number in elementary schools looks good for her.

Functionals: 60K ballots, 2016 turnout 16%, Unity 75%

This is always a big win for Unity - and includes retirees who are counted separately. So this report is without the retiree vote ---

In 2016 Unity got about 7600 and the oppo about 2500, a major gap along the lines of elementary schools.

But a few things have happened in the functiomas. OT/PT elected oppos people. I hear social workers are pissed. Every secretary I met is unhappy. Paras are the big nut for Unity and their leader Shelvy Young is a dynamo - in fact if Unity were smart, she would be a great replacement for Mulgrew. Sooner rather than later.

Will returns go up? Even 20% would be a big move. 25% would close the gap. But I don't think UFC ran very much of an effective campaign aimed at functionals. Look for the usual big win for Unity - I'd take 65% for UFC as a win.

Summary

If we lose the HS it is a bomb for UFC and I don't know if the coalition survives. After all that work and win nothing? People may just go back to their own groups to avoid all the angst of building coalition consensus. 

A HS win would give UFC 7 Ex Bd with reps from all the groups. They'd have to work together. A long-shot win in MS would be massive with 11 dynamo Ex bd members and a base to build for the next election.

UFT/Unity Election2022 Scams: Voter Suppression disenfranchises members, Unity Backs E4E 6 Candidate WECU Scam with two full pages in NY Teacher in attempt to draw votes from UFC

The 2-page WECU spread is a violation of the terms of the election as laid out at the first committee meeting. We (the election committee) approved written documents with a vote. The documents state:

"Slates- Each caucus gets two facing pages...." "Independent candidate ads are 4.5 inches wide by 5.5 inches tall."

"Slate Voting- A minimum of 40 candidates for officer and executive board is required for a slate designation."

Who decided to change the rules that we approved as an election committee? It is really underhanded to unilaterally change the terms of the election at this point.

I've often maintained that if you scratch you will find E4E/WECU and Unity align on many issues. 

I should have gotten 5 other guys named Norm and run a NORM Caucus slate and get two full pages in the NY Teacher.  Damn, I missed my chance. But E4E/WECU did exactly that and Unity helped them - and ignored election committee rules.

"In my small school at least 5 people didn't get a ballot." - A CL

The confusion about getting ballot replacements is another Unity scam to suppress the vote as the deadline was 5 PM yesterday. Unity using AAA excuse about mail delivery is a phony vote suppression scheme. See Election BallotUFT/Unity Sqeezes People Into Tight Deadline

#UFTElection2022 - Unity doesn't want Turnout, Tur... 

ICEUFT Blog: UNITY'S VOTER SUPPRESSION CONTINUES - The Unity dominated UFT Election Committee rejected electronic voting or in-school balloting early in the election process for this year's UFT election. This is despite the fact that the Union uses electronic voting for SBO and Chapter Leader and Delegate elections. In addition, the UFT uses in-school balloting for contract votes.

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Call them the Unity Caucus scams of the 2022 UFT elections. 

Faux ballot replacement deadline

I wrote about the massive use of people who work for the UFT being paid by our dues using their positions to promote Unity. UFT Election 2022: Unity Caucus Theft of Service .... Example: Teacher goes for pension consulation and receives a Unity flyer from the consultant.  

And of course the faux deadline imposed supposedly by the AAA over the deadline for getting replacement ballots. I'm going to demand we get access to AAA lists of whose ballots were actually received by AAA. I'd bet thousands have been disenfranchised. A UFC rep went into a school to stuff boxes yesterday and spoke with the secretary who had not received a ballot. This was 3 PM. She told her to call me and get the number before 5 PM but I never heard from her. AAA is allowing people to get ballots in person at 120 Broadway on April 28, 29. Sure, tell her to go down from Washington Hts. The more I look over the years, the more I see AAA working as employees of UFT/Unity. After all, if UFC wins who knows? They may hire a different firm for future elections. 

More from Eterno at the ICE blog: Mulgrew as Mitch McConnel

In the latest round of UFT voter suppression, Unity again acts like the Republican Party which tries to make it more difficult to vote in state and national elections. For Unity, it wants to make it harder to vote in this UFT election. To add to the cumbersome mail-in ballot process, Unity today rejected a request from one of its candidates to delay the date when members can get a ballot if they had not yet received one by April 25. This came up tonight at the Executive Board when Mike Schirtzer asked about an extension to request a ballot. Ballots are not due back in the mail at the American Arbitration Association until May 9, 2022. Today is April 25 so that leaves two weeks to get a piece of mail from the AAA to a member's home and back if they have not received a ballot yet or if they were given an incorrect ballot or threw it out by accident. Is that enough time? Let's go to the numbers provided by the United States Postal Service: The United States Postal Service reported new delivery performance metrics showing the average time to deliver a mailpiece across the postal network continues is 2.7 days.

How did the UFT do in the past on this issue? In 2016 a member could call for a ballot up to one week before the ballots were going to be counted. This is what we wrote in 2016 at election time on May 17 when ballots were due on May 25 to be counted May 26:

Tomorrow is the last day to call AAA at 1 800 529-5218 to get a duplicate ballot.

The UFT gave you up until one week before the election deadline in 2016 to request a ballot if you didn't get one but this year they need two weeks. That makes no sense as we have already shown the Postal service numbers.

There is only one possible explanation for the UFT making the deadline two weeks before ballots are counted to call for a ballot: Voter Suppression. 

In my view, the UFT feels a low turnout helps Unity Caucus, which is their major (really only) concern.

For those who want read the Unity party line, here is Mike Schirtzer's Question about the deadline from Executive Board tonight. This is from a report from Nick Bacon of New Action who sat in and took minutes:

On election: UFT election. Mulgrew refuses to answer, says any questions on election must be sent to Carl Cambria (Unity Election Committee Chair).

Carl comes up. Mike asks: why is it 2 weeks before deadline this year to get a ballot delivered if it wasn’t sent to your house this year? It was 1 week before the deadline last election. Not to mention there wasn’t the spring break issue last time. Members who just got back from vacation and were told they have to go in person to AAA to get ballots in person. Is there anything we can do to extend that deadline?

Carl Cambria: AAA can’t guarantee extending deadline will allow ballots to get back in time. What we have done is allow teachers to go to AAA in person this Thursday Friday between 9 and 5 and submit ballots in person. Post office isn’t working at the same pace as last year, which is why we landed where we landed.

Only the most committed of voters would go down to lower Manhattan (unless they work in that area) to get a ballot. Imagine if you live way out of town as a retiree. Forget about it. Blaming AAA or the Post Office for this is rather lame and statistically wrong as the USPS reports a close to 90% on-time record. Unity is engaging in flat-out voter suppression.

By the way -- this is why I want Mike Schirtzer on the Ex Bd even if he is running on the Unity line - if UFC doesn't win any seats we at least have Mike there to ask questions, the only one we can rely on. And if UFC wins a partial victory by winning the high schools, Mike will at the very least be a partial ally.

E4E/WECU Scam

Educators for Excellence, the corporate funded anti-union 5th column* in the UFT, creates a faux caucus called WECU (We Exemplify Corporate Unionism - my interpretation). 

They can't get the 40 people to run as a slate, so they come up with 6 candidates and get 100 signatures each to get on the ballot for Exec Bd at large positions. 

UFC on the  other hand has 400 candidates with an army of people going out to get signatures which takes weeks and weeks of work. So go open up the current editions of the NY Teacher and low and behold find that E4E - er WECU - gets two full pages equal to UFC.

I'm on the election committee and we drew lots for the two official slates' positioning in the NY Teacher ads. UFC drew second place in the ad positioning - meaning we get the last word. But in the NY Teacher it is WECU that gets the last word and UFC is in the middle. No consultation with the election committee but a unilateral decision by someone in the UFT/Unity hierarchy with the obvious intent of drawing votes away from UFC. 

Take this to the logical next step. In the next election I am running the NORM Caucus with 6 guys named Norm and get two pages in the NY Teacher. I also recruit 6 Bobs and 6 Mikes and 6 Jeans and we get 8 pages in the NY Teacher.  All we need is to get 100 signatures for each of our slates.

*A fifth column is any group of people who undermine a larger group from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or nation. The activities of a fifth column can be overt or clandestine.

 

 As we catalogue a list of election missteps designed to favor Unity, this one will be near the top of the list.These are not stop the steal issues if we lose but an attempt to shine a light on the misdeeds - something I should have added to my list of "what's different this election." We are publicly calling them out.

 

How UFT Election2022 is different? Reasons #5 Unity Suppresses democracy, #6 more people activated, #7 UFT seen as incompetent, #8 Social Media, #9 GOTV

Unity Titanic ad is a perfect meme for Unity campaign.

 

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Here is Part 3 of my series of reasons the 2022 UFT election differs from past elections. Previous posts

• How is this UFT election different? Reasons #3,4 M...
• How is this UFT election different? Reasons #1,2 UFC ...

covered reasons #1-4.

• #1: The unique and inclusive United for Change coalition 
• #2: Unity Caucus people splitting ballots or outright voting UFC 
• #3 MulgrewCare and the Retiree vote
• #4 Mulgrew unpopularity 

 Before going on, let me recommend the great Jon Halabi series on "What if UFC wins?" - the current entry relates to some of the issues below and is actually a supplement to how things have deteriorated inside the UFT:  

• What if UFC Wins? #5a – leadership – representation --  
• What if UFC Wins? #5b – leadership – Policy-Making

which leads to my own #5 reason for how this election is different.

#5  The suppression of democracy has reached new heights under Mulgrew and his henchmen and women and has sparked anger, frustration and a fervent move to the opposition, even by former supporters or neutral people.

Talk to some key people in the opposition like Nick Bacon and Daniel Alicea this time over what moved them into activism against Unity and their answer hinges on how they tried to become active in moving certain issues and were blokced at every turn through parliamentary measures to outright suppression. You might say that the rank and file doesn't give a crap about internal democracy in the UFT. And that is true. But people like them have a wide net of influence in their own schools and beyond. A year ago there were people talking abotu working with the leadership to craft a way to end mayoral control, taking Mulgrew's vague expression of dissatisfaction with mayoral control seriously. I told them that he and the UFT would always support mayoral control no matter what Mulgrew says -- watch what they do, not what they say. 

A recent article on the current state of the debate on mayoral control where Mulgrew calls for tweaks that amount to moving the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Michael Mulgrew, who heads the city’s teachers union, has called for fixed terms for PEP members and previously said he is in favor of mayoral control, but with changes. "We have been consistent in saying we support mayoral control, but our current system needs greater checks and balances and more avenues for meaningful parental input," Mulgrew said in a statement.

When key people realize that the leadership is often full of bullshit they can be moved to an extraordinary level of activism and become major influenceers. Though that has happened at times in the past when new stars arise (see Julie Cavnagh c. 2009-2013), this time there seems to be a lot more of them, each with a sphere of influence.

Even a mild dose of reform and democracy could have deflected or delayed some of them but Mulgrew and his tight circle chose to crack down and shut out any voices of opposition or criticism.

That has led to the next item.

#6 The large number of people activated compared to the past

Unity has always had an army and still has its army. Has it grown this year? Probably not. In fact we hear stories of shrinkage (see #1). On the other hand, I've seen an oppo army grow that is five- ten times from what I've seen in the past. Unlike the top tier of Unity which is office based (see Halabi brilliant post comparing the Unity and UFC Ex bd at large candidates top employ laden for Unity vs classroom teachers for UFC.-- United Federation of ________???.

Enthusiasm for union organizing -- people not just in election campaign -- but truly as a long-term project -- organizing = relationships 

 The number of distributors has allowed UFC to reach many more mailboxes. Of course Unity does what it always does -- use its union employee force to stuff every box in the city. (See my UFT Election 2022: Unity Caucus Theft of Service - District Reps are a Major culprit). 

So while Unity has remained the same, UFC has gone way beyond the past. But a key question: Does stuffing the boxes mean much? I never gave it much credit in the past. Unity stuffs every box -- maybe over 100K but actually gets a relatively few working UFT members to vote for them. If the oppo also stuffed every box I don't believe that would affect the outcome. though surely get some increase in votes. If this election is close and UFC loses we would take a look at that factor by checking the schools we flyered.

Historically Unity opponents didn't have the outreach to get to many schools and retirees have taken on the task from the different caucuses. New Action had the biggest group and hit many schools, yet their numbers over the years have not been good - they finished last in the 2019 election and I'd bet they had more leaflets out than the other caucuses. 

 

This year we carved the city up into areas convenient to where people lived. MORE and Solidarity and New Action had so much outreach we didn't have to blanket the city and acted as fill-in people.

Using the Titanic as an ad for Unity is very appropriate

• The funniest example of Unity cluelessness is worth repeating

 #7 Poor service and bad decision making, neutralizing key Unity supporters

There is a perception that even things that used to work well in the union has undergone some deterioration.  And this runs throughout the union.

My friend in California called the union for a simple question for her taxes. She was told she'd get a call back. Two weeks later with no response she called again. Message taken - no call back. She stopped calling.

• UFT Outsourcing to Salesforce Update - Workers sue UFT over being replaced by Salesforce as they slam Mulgrew

• UFT Staffer - The face of the UFT is Salesforce - Calling the UFT is like calling Amazon (except the UFT is not as responsive as Amazon)

• Fuck Salesforce -- UFT Staffer

Calls coming in about  ineptness on multiple levels. Someone gets a pension consultation. The Unity person emails her a flyer promoting Unity.  This is the tip of the iceberg.

The Unity leadership at the very least used to be able to deliver fundamental services. People are noticing the decline.

And don't forget this one: SPRING BREAK ARBITRATION DECISION: 4 ORIGINAL ADDI...

#8: Social Media campaign

This is the first election where social media may make a difference. Unity has a big campaign but so does UFC with a strong media team with a strategy to hit back hard and fast at Unity. Given we relied on in school outreach in the past, this has the potential to reach a lot more people. Will it get out the vote? Which leads to - 

#9 - A Get Out the Vote campaign by both sides  - but UFC has the greater potential

We have understood that increased turnout helps the opposition and Unity attempts are aimed at its own base it seems. UFC also aims at its base but also has more people doing personal calling and outreach. I'm intrigued by how the numbers will look. I pointed out in #3 that I expect retiree vote to go up by 20-25%. If I'm wrong that will tell me something about the impact of the various campaigns over MulgewCare because if more people vote the majority will be against Mulgrew, though some will be due to an aggressive Unity campaign with Unity retirees- of whom there are many.

What some of us have detected is a lack of enthusiasm from some Unity people in the campaign and they are not rousing their own colleagues like they might have in the past. When Unity CL of major large high schools openly criticize Mulgrew I can't imagine how hard they are campaigning.

• ANOTHER HIGH SCHOOL CHAPTER LEADER WRITES TO MULGREW
• FOREST HILLS HIGH SCHOOL CHAPTER LEADER ADAM BERGS...

I know of a few cases where Unity asked people to run for certain position and they declined, with one of them running for a prominent position with UFC. That is a danger sign for a one party system.

If you want an idea for a GOTV on your part --

If you have your coworkers' personal email addresses or cell phone numbers, another option that might work would be sending them a digital flier. You can see all of the fliers that we have on social media at:

https://www.facebook.com/108634608304213/posts/150858087415198/?d=n

https://www.instagram.com/p/CcAyFI_uoZM/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

https://twitter.com/ufcuft/status/1511710483094679555?s=21&t=SUP5qEsg8p5uh38KaDNNMQ

There is one new how-to-vote flier available at: http://bit.ly/ufcvote

How is UFT Election2022 different? Reason #1 UFC growth, #2 Unity defections

Mah nishtanah halailah hazeh mikol haleilot?  
How is this UFT election different from all other UFT elections?

1. On all other UFT elections, the opposition was either fragmented or even when working together were not very coordinated. This year United for Change breaks new ground.

2. Unity caucus votes almost unanimously. In this election we hear of split ballots or voting outright for UFC.

April 20, 2022 

I was interviewed by a reporter a few weeks ago and forced to think more deeply about this election and how it was different to the point my brain began to smoke. I was in a cafe at the time and didn't take notes, so I forgot what I said but I felt it was a good analysis. Little by little  it has begun to come back to me, mostly during nightmares.

So here is my first in a series with reasons number 1 and 2 -- out of about 10. They are in no particular order in terms of impact on the election - just listing them as they come to me - after I cool down from the cold sweats.

How is this Election Different from previous elections - #1 and #2 (with many more to come in future posts).

#1: The unique and inclusive United for Change coalition

We've had examples of coalitions in the past. NAC in 1979 and beyond. Three and then two separare caucuses had success in 1985 and 1991 especially, but each of the groups acted somewhat independently (though 1979 was special).  Mid-90s led to the merger of TAC and New Directions to form New Action but many (like me) sat these elections out. PAC formed in the late 90s and ran with NA but that was expedient. In the early oughts New Action began to buddy with Unity and TJC became active and we saw the formation of ICE out of the Ed Notes core. Both of them ran in some forms of coalitions in the 04, 07, 10 elections -- but completely separately. Barely worked together - and when they united to form MORE, there was lingering tensions.

So what makes UFC different? After all, it is an alliance of people who didn't get along in the past and there have been predictions of implosion after the election. I will do my best to build on the alliances to keep things going. That people enjoyed working with others outside their caucus is a positive. I suggest a big victory party no matter the vote totals. Victory for the very existence of the coalition. A beach is available three blocks from my house. Even Unity peoplr can come.

A tremendous level of  collaboration through various committees on just about everything while the individual caucuses continued to operate. There were bumps in putting so many different groups together - competition, political maneuvering, etc. Lots of meetings (most of which I avoided). The initial decision that all must agree - consensus can be a bitch but I've always maintained that consensus takes a long time but works out for the best in the end. The process took forever and probably led to delays in the campaign. If this ever happens again, the working relationships will be smoother. But that all depends on election outcomes. (More on that at the end of this series.)

For the first time people who didn't know each other or worked together have been doing so and seeming to love doing it. Win or not, some of these relationships forged will outlast the election. Despite some rough times getting things coordinated, I'd rate this a success. Even the wild west of lit distribution has had some organization with a spreadsheet we consult to see which schools are leafleted. 

Example: Last week I was walking to the subway and passed two high schools across the sreet from each other. I called one of the people I've been working with in MORE and she immediately checked and gave me the thumbs up to do them. I've been working very closely with this particular person and I just met her two months ago.

The tremendous growth of MORE by ten times over the past two years provides an army of in school contacts. I met up with one woman on the corner of my building on her way to a local school and handed her leaflets. The level of activity in getting out the votes will be major and I have no way of knowing how deep that work goes, but there are some good signs. 

Solidarity under the incredible leadership of Lydia Howrilka has shown enormous staying power and growth in terms of outreach, something I learned during petitioning and distribution. 

New Action has recovered from the 2019 disaster. They have very experienced leadership and a massive list of supporters, mostly retirees but also renewed signs of people in schools. Rising star and former Unity Nick Bacon deciding to join as co-leader and renewal of the NA blog with brilliant posts has been a difference maker.

ICE has fundamentally as a group worked with the other groups rather thaneparately but provides a consistent web site and a core of people who know the game. The Eterno clan is a force. Some of the newer people have identified themselves as ICE/Solidarity. I view ICE as the non-caucus - open to all, including people associated with Unity. We want to talk about issues and eat - rice pudding when available. Post election we want to meet and talk and eat and talk.

Retiree Advocate as a force

A 25 year old group. What is different this year? Retiree Advocate has become active in the election for the first time and consists of New Action, former MOREs and ICE and independents who became active over MulgrewCare. We demonstrated before UFC was even formed that this type of grouping can work together and be effective.

A year and a half ago we decided to make a big push in the 2021 Retiree chapter elections, recruited 130 people to run and captured 30% of the vote, almost double from the past - and this was just as people were finding out about MulgrewCare. The leadership of RA's committed band of activists over decades, plus some great U1T retirees who had never been active in the UFT before has inspired the in-service people from the different groups to work together by supporting the battle against MulgrewCare last spring with actions at the Delegate Assembly that continued this past year as RA demonstrated out side every DA.

Of course MulgrewCare fiasco deserves a bullet of its own. Coming soon #3.

And then there is the Educators of NYC network under Daniel Alicea who has been a force. That he voted for Unity just 3 years ago and has moved so far so fast is a bad sign for the union leadership. Which leads me to #2.

#2: Unity Caucus people splitting ballots or outright voting UFC 

In this election we hear from a small, skewed sample from a small poll of 4 Unity members:

One is voting UFC, two are splitting ballots, and one is undecided. These being friends may not be typical Unity - but these are Unity members, not just supporters, some with a full-time UFT and others with part-time jobs.

Way back a year ago we were hearing that inside Unity there was dissatisfaction with Mulgrew's leadership. He had shrunk the inner circle and was making decisions with a tight crew - and many of those decisions were cringe worthy.

Along with Daniel Alicea moving to oppo, Is Nick Bacon move from Unity to New Action a harbinger? From what I hear, Unity are very bothered by him and Daniel. They like to poach oppos and don't like the reverse.

I hear anecdotes from people with Unity connections. Mulgrew seems to be the issue and other than hardcore Unity, Camille seems to be liked.  But too few to make me feel there will be enough significant defections due to anti- Mulgrew feelings to make a crucial difference - unless the vote is close. Not being an optimist I take these numbers with a grain of salt. But these stories are the first time I've heard over many election cycles.

There is a difference this time -- some Unity members are splitting the ballot or voting for UFC. Enough to lose them the election? NO. But when added to other items in a close race it could make a difference. Mulgrew is very unpopular. Inside the core of the Unity machine preservation is primary. But on the fringes? Who knows.  Mulgrew himself deserves his own bullet as a difference maker. I expect Janella Hinds, HS VP candidate, to get many more votes than Mulgrew.

Yes, Mulgrew himself and his unpopularity is a difference from previous elections.

 

Coming next: 

Number of people activated, MulgrewCare, Mulgrew himself

UFT Election 2022: Unity Caucus Theft of Service - District Reps are a Major culprit

UFT employees are paid with our dues. Using them in the election is theft of service. We have a right to attack. They retaliate when they attack UFC under the false accusations of theft of service during school time they are trying to foment a DOE investigation and are attacking the very members who pay dues.  

Sunday, April 17 --

First some good news from a source:

I have gotten a handful of surprising responses - 2 unity supporters voting our slate, 5 unity supporters who are splitting ballots. I have 7 retirees who have always voted unity voting the opposition for the first time.

Let's look at how the Unity machine cheats by using our dues to promote itself. District reps, fearing a UFC win which will make them run in an election, have been the biggest culprits. Fear of having to go back to the classroom if they lose if a motivating factor. 

• Have you ever heard of one Unity employee quiting to go back to teaching because they loved the classroom so much?

The other day I was stuffing mail boxes with United for Change literature and the chapter leader introduced himself as he was stuffing Unity literature. He is not a Unity member but a first year chapter leader -- "I have to do what I have to do," hse said somewhat apologetically. Why was he doing it then? Because he feels vulnerable and knows he will need the district rep who asked him to put the lit in the boxes. We had a nice conversation. He had spend his first year teaching under an awful legendary principal and knew and respected the chapter leader, whom I told him was running with UFC. I hope we get his vote even if he feels he has to pay fealty to his Unity DR.

Therein lies the major election corruption the UFT/Unity machine engages in during elections. Theft of service and misuse of the power dynamic. It is abuse of the system.

 

I'm not talking about Unity chapter leaders electioneering in their schools (though see the afterburn). UFC people are doing the same. hough there are a lot more Unity CLs than UFC. This gives them an advantage but it is up to the opposition to recruit enough people to counter that. These Unity people may be part-timers but that is not a factor as long as they are not doing electioneering on that time -- but who knows?

• One teacher reported going for a pension consultation and being emailed a Unity flyer by the consultant. A clear election violation.

The clearest violations are the use of full-time UFT employees through their power and influence to get the lit in every mailbox in the city. (Whether stuffing boxes is an effective vote getter is a subject for another time.) I find Unity leaflets in every school I go to.

Do non-Unity CLs feel obligated to stuff boxes? Hell yes. Many do. It is a blatant misuse of the power dynamic. In one district the DR called a chapter leader meeting and had a Unity CL hand out envelopes with Unity leaflets to every attendee with instructions to put them in the mailboxes.  At another DR sponsored Bronx event there were Unity leaflets on the tables. When a UFC person started to hand out leaflets the DR went ballistic and started screaming at her.

 

I also faced that dynamic when I became chapter leader with a hostile principal in 1994. The district rep was a nice guy who had been my chapter leader back in 1968. So we got along and even though I pushed back in many areas -- ie when he said he had to come to my school to sell the 1995 contract, I told him he couldn't have the entire meeting but we would debate.

The biggest impact of the Unity macbine using UFT resources may (if you believe lit helps) be felt in the elementary schools where most likely every single mailbox has been stuffed with Unity lit while UFC has not had enough resources to do the same. In every election there is a major gap in the elementary schools because the oppo is weakest. I think there are over 700 schools and Unity through it's District Reps has access to every one of them. 

Many elementary school teachers are not even aware of the election other than the Unity flyer they receive. If they open the ballot as opposed to putting it in the garbage can - and 75% do exactly that, they will see United for Change for the first time.

The voting totals in elementary schools will demonstrate the impact of campaigning in the schools. If UFC gets close to Unity totals that will teach us something - that the message got to peoeple through social media or word of mouth, But if the gap is as large as in the past the opposition starts reaching deeper into that division

---
Afterburn - When Unity Cls actively work to keep out oppo lit -

Good  morning—

On Friday, April 8, I visited XXXXXX elementary school to distribute election-related flyers in UFT members’ mailboxes. 

The school safety official who greeted me was very courteous. She explained she had to check with someone before allowing me to distribute the flyers. She spoke by phone with the school’s UFT representative who denied my request. 

I am including in this correspondence the fellow UFT member who originally advised me in this matter.

 UPDATE from FB:

As a 7yr CL through 2 elections, I can absolutely attest that what you write was my experience. In fact at the District CL meetings Unity nomination forms would be passed around without explanation, and nonchalantly asked to all sign. In addition the DR always demanded to attend a chapter meeting at election time, pure electioneering. Plus I'd get several super expensive mailings from Unity people [like Elementary VP] requesting that their informational flyers get distributed. Again pure electioneering on UFT dime. Often self indulgent swag would be included. UFT labeled plastic sandwich holders. Cheap UFT labeled water bottles.  UFT labeled key chains, etc...--  

UFT Election 2022 - High schools up for grabs, Split Ballots May Affect close votes, anti-Mulgrew sentiment even within Unity will increase splits

"I just can’t bring myself to vote for Unity - I can’t stand Mulgrew. He caves on everything." I asked will he vote ufc - he said “honestly I don’t know - but I just can’t go to mulgrew”... Anonynmous

Either this person splits the ballot or doesn't vote at all. A lost vote for Unity if nor necessarily a vote for UFC. Don't discount the Mulgrew factor. I saw a comment from a hard core Unity person who urges people to vote for Unity while recognizing the Mulgrew handicap -- paraphrasing: We know he's a liability. We'll take care of him inside the caucus. Is a post-election palace coup coming?

Sunday, April 10, 2022

 

In the next few days UFT members will be receiving in the mail a serious sized booklet listing all the candidates running in the election (Ballots must be in by May 9.) The easiest way to vote is to choose one of the two slates on the front page, tear it off, put it in the envelope labeled SECRET BALLOT and put that envelope in the other envelope.You'd be surprised how many people do not use the SECRET BALLOT envelope and just put their ballot in the mailing envelope. Does this invalidate your vote? Possibly. 

But what if you want to vote for people from both slates or don't want to vote for some people on either slate? That is known as a split ballot and requires picking through the entire booklet putting check boxes next to each name. Each caucus has 12 officers, 90 Ex Bd plus 6 candidates faux E4E labeled WECU running for Ex Bd at large, plus one independent. Unity has an additional 650 and UFC 300 AFT/NYSUT delegates. Machines do the counting, so any screwed up marks on these ballots cause problems and even invalidation. Some people check a slate and vote for individuals -- which can invalidate the entire ballot - though as a member of the UFT election committee I will argue to only use the slate and ignore the rest as some people get confused and think they have to also vote for their friends. In every election there are numerous invalidations. (We've seen some slate votes with both boxes checked -- invalid).

Slate voting - I say YES

I have always argued for slate voting only rather than going through the laundry list of thousands of names who are running in UFT elections. When not active in the opposition I split my ballot but then learned in election count observations just how few there were and how we reported only the slate votes since the relatively few split ballots were never enough to change the outcome. You'd find that the lowest totals for a candidate on Unity to the highest total varies by a few hundred votes. Same for the opposition. But this time those few hundred votes can turn an election. Can you imagine a split ex bd?

For instance, in last year's Retiree election, the slate vote for RA was less than 7K and for Unity around 16K. But within each group there was a different total for each candidate. For RA, the well-known Michael Shulman got the most votes - over 7K. My vote total was somewhere in the middle of the pack. It made no real difference, except for some egos. But what if the election were closer - say Unity and RA roughly split the vote at 50-50 -- then those individual splits would decide the election with a mixed group from Unity and RA. One strategy we used in this election was to run some well-known retirees for Ex bd at large - their names will appear on very ballot. I didn't make the cut and will only appear for Ex Bd on functional ballots. My chances are slim and none given Unity's bigg

In 2019, with me being so pissed at MORE and not thrilled with any caucus, I did split my ballot -  I had no dog in the race - I just re-read what I wrote then and made some interesting predictions. An eclectic group for sure: 5 for Solidarity, 4 for Unity, 3 for MORE.

Worth reading.

My (2019) UFT Election Choices: Duke Breaks Bracket, Ex-MORES In Play on Unity Slate - Yes, My Choices are Personnal

An eclectic group for sure:

5 for Solidarity, 4 for Unity, 3 for MORE

But this time I do have a dog in the race and am urging people not to split the ballot and vote UFC slate. For those continuing critics of MORE many have been won over by the broader coalition of UFC - including some people who had left ICE for being too left a decade ago.  Dislike of Mulgrew and Unity Caucus is a uniting force - even if temporary.

One story:

I ran into a CL and original MORE while leafleting a school last week - he recognized me even with my mask on - and said he was considering voting for Unity - which was an eye-opener. He introduced me to a colleague and I sold UFC to them - or tried. I explained the coalition and he listened - he has been so anti-Unity all these years -- but he was mad at UFC over the DA disruption issues - even if they are minor. The funny thing is he hasn't been very friendly to me over the past few years and I thought it was because I left MORE but it was the opposite - he was mad at MORE. I explained there are some great new people in MORE who have changed the chemistry.

In my April 2019 piece I cited above I asked this Post-election question:

Will New Action still be alive and can some alliance between them and Solidarity plus ICEers and other non-MOREs be put together as a serious bulwark against Unity?

Given the MORE anti-working with other caucuses and dim view of the UFT election at the time, I never expected MORE to join a coalition. So win-win. The question for this election is what happens to the UFC post election? That depends on outcomes. If they win some ex bd seats the hope is they work together at UFC instead of caucus focus. Chances? 50-50.

However, who listens to me? Not THE DOENUTS BLOG -- a friend who I have consulted with through the years, despite some rocky moments - after this election I hope we use the favored method of bonding - a beer in a bar.

Here are two posts on splitting the ballot

• First a presidential endorsement - Camille Eterno For President.
•  The Endorsements (Part1: the UFC) which will be followed by Part 2 where I predict Mike Schirtzer as the leading endosement for Ex Bd at large.

I agree on Schitzer

Why I support Mike Schirtzer - only if you split the vote he's a must but please don't

I can't vote for Mike since I am doing slate, but if I did split he would get my vote as the only semi-independent on the Unity slate. Mike won with MORE in 2016 and with Unity in 2019 - I couldn't vote for him then because I am not a high school teacher -- but this time he is running for at large -- which I supported him all the way when he proposed it to Unity. Mike has been helpful to the oppo people when we needed a voice on the ex bd without offending his Unity sponsors. And when he made his pitch to Unity leaders he was open about working with both Unity and UFC. When we pushed for electronic voting Mike was there for us.

By the way -- I think Unity wanted Mike to run for HS Ex Bd because he brings some votes - the former MORE I met above was very bothered that Mike wasn't running with UFC - so he has fans. Mike told me beforehand he would not accept a position on the Unity slate if he had to run against his friends. That Unity gave him an at large is a sign of respect.

So if you do split the ballot - Mike is a must. But please don't split the ballot.

Why more splits this year? Dislike of Mulgrew and Unity fatigue but no commitment to UFC yet.

Saying that, I think this year there will be an uptick in split ballots. In the vote count the one page slate votes are counted very quickly while the booklets have to be unstapled and run through machines and can take an entire day.

But lets imagine a close election - take the high schools. There are 7 candidates for each slate. If you look at the past as I reported last night -UFT Elections: Illuminating Stats from the past - 

You will see that total high school votes out of 20k are about 5K -- 25% return. And often roughly evenly split -- separated by a few hundred votes. Skipping the abnormal 2019 votes, you can see that MORE/NA won with about 2350 in 2016 and Solidarity running non slate still got about 250 -- total oppo around 2500. Unity got under 2200.

So start with those numbers as a HS base for each group. If UFC only holds onto that base and Unity goes up, the split ballots could make a difference. UFC would have to surge -- there was a time that New Action topped 3K with Unity almost hitting that number 20 years back. Imagine if both groups rouse their base and 6 or even 7K vote? All bets are off. My ideal -- Unity gets its base and UFC surges toward 3k and wins with over 60%of the vote in the high schools. Am I predicting that? Hell no. But based on the past HS elections over decades, if UFC loses HS it will be slim while the potential to win big is out there. Unity is running a heavy campaign and Janella is popular and should have been the presidential candidate and will probably be next time.

I will do more analysis in the coming days. I may be on another podcast talking about the election and was interviewed by a reporter who is pitching the story.

-------

Just for giggles: 

In my research I came across this 2017 post from a real life fiddler: Unity Fiddles While High Schools Unrepresented - Oct. 2017.

2016 UFT Elections: Winning the High Schools - Part 1

UFT Elections 2016 Historical Analysis: Winning the High Schools, Part 2 - The 2014 MORE Retreat

 

UFT DA- The Numbers Don't Lie - Truth about our Delegate Assembly, Mulgrew Filibuster (and the mistruth UFC is “wasting time”)

With every blatant lie, the Unity Caucus machine wins votes for United For Change. They dare to try to blame the lack of business getting done at the DA on the few minutes taken up be points of order or parliamentary procedure which are attempts to open up the floor for debates, discussions and resolutions. So people have begun to track the actual time stamps for the DA to prove that Mulgrew and his Unity Caucus cohorts take up almost all the time -- even pre-planning questions and planted resolutions -- insiders tell us that Mulgrew actually holds practice sessions with people assigned seats and even a seating chart. 

Watch Unity attack UFC for speaking at all.

Here is a report from the UFC media team.

The numbers don’t lie. The Mulgrew filibuster is solely responsible for obstructing the deliberative and legislative business of the Delegate Assembly. 

 

The March DA is not exception. 

 

The numbers and data don’t lie. See the charts below. 

 

The time is being monopolized by the chair, Mulgrew and Unity - mostly for reports. In December, he took 80% of the DA time, while Unity consumed 95% of the total time with ZERO resolutions passed. 

 

Since December 2020, the DA has only averaged 1.5 resolutions passed, per month, almost all being political endorsements and symbolic resolutions. 

They claim to do the work … but the work seems to be the talking points 52 Broadway wants to deliver to us… not the rank and file organizing from the bottom up or bringing their ideas to the table and arena ideas. 

 

At the last DA, Mulgrew and Unity literally ran out the clock for an automatic 6 pm adjournment despite calls to extend the time so business and motions could be considered by the United For Change partner delegates. 

 

We must #FreeTheDelgateAssembly. Check out this spreadsheet for a minute by minute account of the March DA:

 

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1jY2AOvdlhEPxGXvrU4gc2k1pCrmTt8Lk/htmlview

march da speaking time.xlsx -

 

 

Handicapping the 2022 UFT Election: Can United for Change Win? Part 1 - UFC Unique Coalition, Unity on the Attack, Will UFC Hold Together?

Mah nishtanah halailah hazeh mikol haleilot?  
How is this UFT Election different from all other UFT Elections? 

Tentative Ans: The UFC Unique Coalition, Unity on the Attack 

UFT Unity is in a lose lose situation. If the percentage of their vote dips below 65 percent there will be a bloodletting in Unity and if not we will have a hobbled union when contract negotiations start in earnest. ....South Bronx School, running with UFC

This year they're (Opposition) making nice, but next year they'll devolve into the same incomprehensible ideological battles on which they thrive."... NYC Educator, running with Unity.

It was perhaps the best lock in all of sports — until it wasn’t. A No. 16 seed had never defeated a No. 1 seed in March Madness until UMBC shocked the world by toppling Virginia in 2018. ... Oddsmakers

Unity Caucus is the longest running continuous autocracy in the world over the past 60 years - except maybe the Chinese Communist Party -- but I'd maintain that even they have had more internal party democracy than Unity. There are no Las Vegas odds on the UFT election - yet.

Monday, March 21, 2022

This is my 6th UFT election cycle since the 2004 election and I think I've learned a few things - or not. In the past I never expected us to win.  There was always hope we would make heavy gains as a way to build a serious opposition to Unity but have always been disappointed.

Results have been remarkably similar (I'll do a year by year breakdown as part of this series) with the 2019 three caucus oppo to Unity disaster being an exception which we mostly toss out in our analysis except for a few lessons - lessons that have driven those three caucuses to come together along with others into the United for Change COALITION -- NOT CAUCUS. This is an important point to keep in mind over my next few blogs about the UFT election.

Whither United for Change Coalition
We cannot emphasize enough: UFC is a temporary arrangement for the elections with no post-election plans at this time, though there has been some back door chatter. Of course the future of UFC to some extent depends on the election outcomes:

• Partial win: some ex bd with big gains with retirees, divisionals and functionals: 
• Partial win similar to the past: Winning HS seats.
• Total loss with no change from previous elections.
• Winning it all - In past years I'd always say Zero chances. This time I wouldn't even consider it a #16 vs 1 seed but I'd actually give some odds of possibilities if everything broke right -- a subject for a future post in this series- what would it take to win. Crucial point- UFC would be a sort of parliament with lots of points of views and no one is shy so a win would be very vibrant and in fact UFC would actually make changes that would decrease the power of a victor by reducing the winner take all policy -- and if they didn't do that much I would join the new opposition- which would be Unity - YIKES!  But there also might be food fights at Ex Bd meetings.

Every one of these options is on the table in this election.

 

What is different? UFC - a remarkable coming together of almost every voice opposing Unity (and some backroom voices allied with Unity) over the past 50 years plus a plethora of newcomers - and young newcomers, including some key people who either ran with or voted for Unity in 2019. 

• New Action
• Solidarity
• MORE
• ICE
• Retiree Advocate
• Educators of NYC
• Independents - The Uncaucus including ex-Unity supporters
  

Danger signs for Unity

Nick Bacon, elected on 2019 Unity slate, is running for UFC Ex Bd HS-- is now co-director of New Action and has been doing great work on their blog and has brought a young perspective to New Action. Some blog pieces:

• Unpacking Mulgrew’s Concession of ‘Mulgrewcare’

• Open Market is Not the Solution to Abusive Administration

• Unpacking the February DA

Daniel Alicea - who voted for Unity in 2019 and has become a glue of sort to bring all the oppo groups together. He is now co-host of the WBAI Talk Out of School with Leonie Haimson. His program Saturday had two fab interviews: A Conversation with Noah Teachey and Arlene Laverde.

While we have seen defections from the oppo to Unity, these two represent a reverse defection and have brought creds to the oppo and function as a uniting force since they don't carry old baggage.

A New MORE -- One story-- In the past month I have been working closely with a youngish MORE member who joined after I left and brings well-needed diversity to the oppo and became very active in the election around the end of petition time, one of the most remarkable people I've met. She's organized and relentless in getting even old farts like me to do stuff. If she and others like her remain active, that represents the biggest long-term threat to Unity. One day I will tell the entire story. 

 

Bonding -- Yes, there may still be some old resentments from the past but every day I see bonds being formed between people from different caucuses. If that lasts and grows ----- 

There is a delicate balance between caucuses that compete with each other for members and influence - always fragile -- and the affiliation of what I call the Uncaucused - people who do not want to be affiliated with a particular group's ideological - they find the boundaries too limitiing - but are opposed to the Unity leadership. 

 

This forces an even more delicate balance but the input of this unaffiliated group has actually kept things relatively peaceful once the stresses of choosing candidates in a balanced manner where every group felt represented  - was out of the way.... An  excruciating process where consensus was the rule turned out to give UFC the best field of candidates I've every seen plus the largest group running in decades -- around 400. And we could have had more but as the chief of petitions I begged people to stop recruiting as I had only 2 suitcases.

 

Unity Caucus leaders full well know the long-term stakes which explains their high level of push back compared to previous years. Peter at South Bronx Schools thinks their response is due to fear of losing: UFT Unity The Smell of Fear. "In the past, the opposition had won high school seats and in my opinion UFT Unity just dealt with it." 

 

This time they really want to bury the opposition and shut them out of winning anything. Imagine if they are successful and the oppo gets a significant portion of the vote and gets no ex bd or AFT/NYSUT positions. I can see going to court over dues taxastion without representation.

More control to Unity than even Putin has in Russia. Unity may invade the pockets of resistance to their rule -- oh, I forgot -- they already do that by using their district reps to get their lit on teacher boxes.

 

I believe Unity is too arrogant after 60 years of power to think it can really lose. Unity is putting up an extraordinary effort in hope of ending the UFC coalition threat and relegate the other caucuses back into the competition with each other. 2019 was a dream year for Unity and they kept the opposition completely out of the Executive Board for the first time since the 1993 election.

 

I will go deeper into the founding, the evolution of UFC and its potential in future analysis, most likely after May 10. 

I see the long-term possibilities of UFC, win or lose as more important than the election outcomes itself. Winning some seats on the Ex Bd is important but the oppo has been doing that for decades with similar outcomes. Winning a significantly larger share of support from UFT members, even it UFC loses the election, is a key to the future health of UFC and the union as a whole. Getting larger turnout would be a major move. Getting in the high thirties approaching 40% would be win.

 

Some people connected to Unity don't think there is much of a chance of UFC surviving the election:  Arthur Goldstein, who is once again running with Unity for HS Ex Bd says, "I tried working with opposition for years and it's a dead end.  This year they're making nice, but next year they'll devolve into the same incomprehensible ideological battles on which they thrive." Arthur, who I still consider an over 15 year friend despite some recent rancor, has some legit gripes against MORE from past years -- I had similar gripes but would never have been driven to run with Unity. Well, maybe I will when Unity is the opposition caucus.

I would have agreed with Arthur a year ago about future infighting. Unity has always known that the more oppo caucuses there are competing with each other, the better for their control. Having had negative experiences (I'm too libertarian in oppo groups over the years I have some to see consensus coalitions, where individual caucuses cooperate but are free to operate on their own, as a potential model for an effective opposition in the UFT.

Some people who are skeptical of the opposition and also of Unity control have told me they want a vibrant opposition that won't win in order to present a credible threat to Unity that would wake them up and make them better. I can see that point of view. If you think UFC can't win, that is one reason to vote UFC - for the health of the union. Even Unity people who hate Mulgrew are thinking that way -- close the gap and get rid of Mulgrew.

The biggest disaster the UFT would face would be a massive victory for Unity with an 80% vote and a breakup of UFC where an arrogant autocracy will continue to make bad decisions and take the membership for granted. And most of all, consolidate the power of Michael Mulgrew. To see just how bad that would be for everyone -- 

• A Halabi MUST READ: An unheeded plea to Unity to Do the right thing? and dump Mulgrew.

Jon Halabi, who was with New Action, is now independent and also works with Daniel and Nick as glue to keep the UFC coalition working together, hopefully post election.

More Halabi reads:

Saving Medicare: Why is Unity anti-Optout today?, March 20, 2022

Mulgrew on Medicare?, March 19, 2022

Yes, UFT members can defeat Unity / Mulgrew