Handicapping the 2022 UFT Election: Can United for Change Win? Part 1 - UFC Unique Coalition, Unity on the Attack, Will UFC Hold Together?

Mah nishtanah halailah hazeh mikol haleilot?  
How is this UFT Election different from all other UFT Elections? 

Tentative Ans: The UFC Unique Coalition, Unity on the Attack 

UFT Unity is in a lose lose situation. If the percentage of their vote dips below 65 percent there will be a bloodletting in Unity and if not we will have a hobbled union when contract negotiations start in earnest. ....South Bronx School, running with UFC

This year they're (Opposition) making nice, but next year they'll devolve into the same incomprehensible ideological battles on which they thrive."... NYC Educator, running with Unity.

It was perhaps the best lock in all of sports — until it wasn’t. A No. 16 seed had never defeated a No. 1 seed in March Madness until UMBC shocked the world by toppling Virginia in 2018. ... Oddsmakers

Unity Caucus is the longest running continuous autocracy in the world over the past 60 years - except maybe the Chinese Communist Party -- but I'd maintain that even they have had more internal party democracy than Unity. There are no Las Vegas odds on the UFT election - yet.

Monday, March 21, 2022

This is my 6th UFT election cycle since the 2004 election and I think I've learned a few things - or not. In the past I never expected us to win.  There was always hope we would make heavy gains as a way to build a serious opposition to Unity but have always been disappointed.

Results have been remarkably similar (I'll do a year by year breakdown as part of this series) with the 2019 three caucus oppo to Unity disaster being an exception which we mostly toss out in our analysis except for a few lessons - lessons that have driven those three caucuses to come together along with others into the United for Change COALITION -- NOT CAUCUS. This is an important point to keep in mind over my next few blogs about the UFT election.

Whither United for Change Coalition
We cannot emphasize enough: UFC is a temporary arrangement for the elections with no post-election plans at this time, though there has been some back door chatter. Of course the future of UFC to some extent depends on the election outcomes:

• Partial win: some ex bd with big gains with retirees, divisionals and functionals: 
• Partial win similar to the past: Winning HS seats.
• Total loss with no change from previous elections.
• Winning it all - In past years I'd always say Zero chances. This time I wouldn't even consider it a #16 vs 1 seed but I'd actually give some odds of possibilities if everything broke right -- a subject for a future post in this series- what would it take to win. Crucial point- UFC would be a sort of parliament with lots of points of views and no one is shy so a win would be very vibrant and in fact UFC would actually make changes that would decrease the power of a victor by reducing the winner take all policy -- and if they didn't do that much I would join the new opposition- which would be Unity - YIKES!  But there also might be food fights at Ex Bd meetings.

Every one of these options is on the table in this election.

 

What is different? UFC - a remarkable coming together of almost every voice opposing Unity (and some backroom voices allied with Unity) over the past 50 years plus a plethora of newcomers - and young newcomers, including some key people who either ran with or voted for Unity in 2019. 

• New Action
• Solidarity
• MORE
• ICE
• Retiree Advocate
• Educators of NYC
• Independents - The Uncaucus including ex-Unity supporters
  

Danger signs for Unity

Nick Bacon, elected on 2019 Unity slate, is running for UFC Ex Bd HS-- is now co-director of New Action and has been doing great work on their blog and has brought a young perspective to New Action. Some blog pieces:

• Unpacking Mulgrew’s Concession of ‘Mulgrewcare’

• Open Market is Not the Solution to Abusive Administration

• Unpacking the February DA

Daniel Alicea - who voted for Unity in 2019 and has become a glue of sort to bring all the oppo groups together. He is now co-host of the WBAI Talk Out of School with Leonie Haimson. His program Saturday had two fab interviews: A Conversation with Noah Teachey and Arlene Laverde.

While we have seen defections from the oppo to Unity, these two represent a reverse defection and have brought creds to the oppo and function as a uniting force since they don't carry old baggage.

A New MORE -- One story-- In the past month I have been working closely with a youngish MORE member who joined after I left and brings well-needed diversity to the oppo and became very active in the election around the end of petition time, one of the most remarkable people I've met. She's organized and relentless in getting even old farts like me to do stuff. If she and others like her remain active, that represents the biggest long-term threat to Unity. One day I will tell the entire story. 

 

Bonding -- Yes, there may still be some old resentments from the past but every day I see bonds being formed between people from different caucuses. If that lasts and grows ----- 

There is a delicate balance between caucuses that compete with each other for members and influence - always fragile -- and the affiliation of what I call the Uncaucused - people who do not want to be affiliated with a particular group's ideological - they find the boundaries too limitiing - but are opposed to the Unity leadership. 

 

This forces an even more delicate balance but the input of this unaffiliated group has actually kept things relatively peaceful once the stresses of choosing candidates in a balanced manner where every group felt represented  - was out of the way.... An  excruciating process where consensus was the rule turned out to give UFC the best field of candidates I've every seen plus the largest group running in decades -- around 400. And we could have had more but as the chief of petitions I begged people to stop recruiting as I had only 2 suitcases.

 

Unity Caucus leaders full well know the long-term stakes which explains their high level of push back compared to previous years. Peter at South Bronx Schools thinks their response is due to fear of losing: UFT Unity The Smell of Fear. "In the past, the opposition had won high school seats and in my opinion UFT Unity just dealt with it." 

 

This time they really want to bury the opposition and shut them out of winning anything. Imagine if they are successful and the oppo gets a significant portion of the vote and gets no ex bd or AFT/NYSUT positions. I can see going to court over dues taxastion without representation.

More control to Unity than even Putin has in Russia. Unity may invade the pockets of resistance to their rule -- oh, I forgot -- they already do that by using their district reps to get their lit on teacher boxes.

 

I believe Unity is too arrogant after 60 years of power to think it can really lose. Unity is putting up an extraordinary effort in hope of ending the UFC coalition threat and relegate the other caucuses back into the competition with each other. 2019 was a dream year for Unity and they kept the opposition completely out of the Executive Board for the first time since the 1993 election.

 

I will go deeper into the founding, the evolution of UFC and its potential in future analysis, most likely after May 10. 

I see the long-term possibilities of UFC, win or lose as more important than the election outcomes itself. Winning some seats on the Ex Bd is important but the oppo has been doing that for decades with similar outcomes. Winning a significantly larger share of support from UFT members, even it UFC loses the election, is a key to the future health of UFC and the union as a whole. Getting larger turnout would be a major move. Getting in the high thirties approaching 40% would be win.

 

Some people connected to Unity don't think there is much of a chance of UFC surviving the election:  Arthur Goldstein, who is once again running with Unity for HS Ex Bd says, "I tried working with opposition for years and it's a dead end.  This year they're making nice, but next year they'll devolve into the same incomprehensible ideological battles on which they thrive." Arthur, who I still consider an over 15 year friend despite some recent rancor, has some legit gripes against MORE from past years -- I had similar gripes but would never have been driven to run with Unity. Well, maybe I will when Unity is the opposition caucus.

I would have agreed with Arthur a year ago about future infighting. Unity has always known that the more oppo caucuses there are competing with each other, the better for their control. Having had negative experiences (I'm too libertarian in oppo groups over the years I have some to see consensus coalitions, where individual caucuses cooperate but are free to operate on their own, as a potential model for an effective opposition in the UFT.

Some people who are skeptical of the opposition and also of Unity control have told me they want a vibrant opposition that won't win in order to present a credible threat to Unity that would wake them up and make them better. I can see that point of view. If you think UFC can't win, that is one reason to vote UFC - for the health of the union. Even Unity people who hate Mulgrew are thinking that way -- close the gap and get rid of Mulgrew.

The biggest disaster the UFT would face would be a massive victory for Unity with an 80% vote and a breakup of UFC where an arrogant autocracy will continue to make bad decisions and take the membership for granted. And most of all, consolidate the power of Michael Mulgrew. To see just how bad that would be for everyone -- 

• A Halabi MUST READ: An unheeded plea to Unity to Do the right thing? and dump Mulgrew.

Jon Halabi, who was with New Action, is now independent and also works with Daniel and Nick as glue to keep the UFC coalition working together, hopefully post election.

More Halabi reads:

Saving Medicare: Why is Unity anti-Optout today?, March 20, 2022

Mulgrew on Medicare?, March 19, 2022

Yes, UFT members can defeat Unity / Mulgrew