Showing posts with label Paul Krugman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Krugman. Show all posts

Monday, September 19, 2016

Paul Krugman's Dishonesty as he Goes Begging for Hillary Votes

I used to be a big Paul Krugman fan. But since he has turned into a rabid Hillary and Democratic Party supporter I've been examining his columns with more scrutiny. Today's column (Vote as if It Matters) certainly verges on dishonesty.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Paul Krugman on the imbalanced boss-worker power relationship applied to NYC principals and teachers

The massive power imbalance between principal and teacher in NYC is not due to a weak economy but to a weak union. Let me expound on this point.
...employment generally involves a power relationship: you have a boss, who tells you what to do, and if you refuse, you may be fired... We don’t know how much of this profit surge can be explained by the fear factor — the ability to squeeze workers who know that they have no place to go. But it must be at least part of the explanation. In fact, it’s possible (although by no means certain) that corporate interests are actually doing better in a somewhat depressed economy than they would if we had full employment...
...  Paul Krugman, The Fear Economy, NYT
As he so often does, Paul Krugman writes an interesting column that says much but leaves out so much more.
Some people would have you believe that employment relations are just like any other market transaction; workers have something to sell, employers want to buy what they offer, and they simply make a deal. But anyone who has ever held a job in the real world — or, for that matter, seen a Dilbert cartoon — knows that it’s not like that.
The weakness in today's otherwise strong NYT Krugman column about the unbalanced power relationship between boss and worker is the lack of his mention of the weakening of unions to the point of their being snuffed as a factor.

Just think of the change in the power relationship in NYC schools under Bloomberg between principal and teachers (and the rest of the unionized school workers).

The irony here is that in our situation, this massive disparity in power in the NYC schools is not due to a weak economy and the law of supply and demand or the lack of a union (I know, I know -- some of you are giggling already). In fact, the UFT has a major presence with fingers in every pie. Yet somehow this little thing called "protection of workers' rights" is a place where our esteemed leadership chooses not stick its fingers in too deep -- if at all.

Just think about how senior teachers fare with fair school funding giving principals power over hiring higher priced senior teachers. Or how tenure can be delayed year after year. Or how untenured teachers are at the mercy of a principal who can end their career with a swipe by giving them a Discontinue which blackballs them from working in any school in the city even if a principal wants them.

All this (and more) with barely a peep out of the UFT leadership. In fact if you want to look back at a list of 15 years of failure of the UFT leadership, possibly this imbalance (which even when I taught I thought was too much in the principals' favor) is now at the point of insanity. Truly, on many levels and in many schools the union just doesn't exist -- I think there are teachers in Mississippi with better balanced principal-teacher power relationships.
The fact is that employment generally involves a power relationship: you have a boss, who tells you what to do, and if you refuse, you may be fired. This doesn’t have to be a bad thing. If employers value their workers, they won’t make unreasonable demands. But it’s not a simple transaction. There’s a country music classic titled “Take This Job and Shove It.” There isn’t and won’t be a song titled “Take This Consumer Durable and Shove It.”
So employment is a power relationship, and high unemployment has greatly weakened workers’ already weak position in that relationship.
Krugman goes on to talk about the "Quitting rate" as a measure -- and I'll have an analogy to our teaching situation in the other end of the quote that contradicts Krugman's point.
We can actually quantify that weakness by looking at the quits rate — the percentage of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs (as opposed to being fired) each month. Obviously, there are many reasons a worker might want to leave his or her job. Quitting is, however, a risk; unless a worker already has a new job lined up, he or she doesn’t know how long it will take to find a new job, and how that job will compare with the old one.

And the risk of quitting is much greater when unemployment is high, and there are many more people seeking jobs than there are job openings. As a result, you would expect to see the quits rate rise during booms, fall during slumps — and, indeed, it does. Quits plunged during the 2007-9 recession, and they have only partially rebounded, reflecting the weakness and inadequacy of our economic recovery.
So Krugman finds that the quit rate has dropped as the power relationship in favor of the boss (due to the slump) has risen - an inverse relationship.

Now let's apply that to the NYC school system where as the power relationship has tipped so far in favor of the principal the quit rate seems to have risen (I have no data here only word of mouth) -- which makes perfect sense --- as teaching becomes intolerable people will leave. Or go to another school -- so maybe I am taking the broad look at "quit" to include leaving the school of an abusive boss -- turnover rates at schools are an indication.

But of course, the power imbalance between principal and teacher is not due to a weak economy but to a weak union.

Krugman explores the debate in progressive circles:
There’s been a somewhat strange debate among progressives lately, with some arguing that populism and condemnations of inequality are a diversion, that full employment should instead be the top priority. As some leading progressive economists have pointed out, however, full employment is itself a populist issue: weak labor markets are a main reason workers are losing ground, and the excessive power of corporations and the wealthy is a main reason we aren’t doing anything about jobs.
Yes, 'tis the power of corporations and the wealthy, who own the politicians (and don't bet they don't or won't own de Blasio).

Now, here is the crux of Krugman's piece with a lot of truth. The poor economy and weakening of labor that goes with it is GOOD for corporate profits, not bad for them.
The economic recovery has, as I said, been weak and inadequate, but all the burden of that weakness is being borne by workers. Corporate profits plunged during the financial crisis, but quickly bounced back, and they continued to soar. Indeed, at this point, after-tax profits are more than 60 percent higher than they were in 2007, before the recession began. We don’t know how much of this profit surge can be explained by the fear factor — the ability to squeeze workers who know that they have no place to go. But it must be at least part of the explanation. In fact, it’s possible (although by no means certain) that corporate interests are actually doing better in a somewhat depressed economy than they would if we had full employment.

What’s more, I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to suggest that this reality helps explain why our political system has turned its backs on the unemployed. No, I don’t believe that there’s a secret cabal of C.E.O.’s plotting to keep the economy weak. But I do think that a major reason why reducing unemployment isn’t a political priority is that the economy may be lousy for workers, but corporate America is doing just fine.
Thus explaining the corporate/politician complex of killing labor, cutting spending that makes life for working class worse, and killing the safety net for those falling.

once you understand this, you also understand why it’s so important to change those priorities... the excessive power of corporations and the wealthy is a main reason we aren’t doing anything about jobs. Too many Americans currently live in a climate of economic fear. There are many steps that we can take to end that state of affairs, but the most important is to put jobs back on the agenda.

Sorry Paul, the "changing priorities, putting jobs back on the agenda" train left the station a long time ago. It will take a hell of a lot of bodies marching in the street to change the conversation. With American workers and unions being so dormant where can we get some zombies?

--------
Read the full Krugman column in the order in which it was written (call me Paul if you need an editor):

http://app.nytimes.com/#2013/12/27/opinion/krugman-the-fear-economy

Friday, December 6, 2013

Today's Paul Krugman column, "Obama Gets Real," misses boat by ignoring failed ed deform factor

How Krugman continues to refuse to address the gap between Obama rhetoric and action, especially when it comes to ed policy, is beyond me. Obama/Duncan and the rest of the pack of ed deformers have spent 5 years pushing the idea that getting higher quality teachers and removing so-called weaker teachers is the answer to the poverty/inequality question.
And because the president was willing to assign much of the blame for rising inequality to bad policy....
Whose bad policy? Do you think Race To The Top came from Republicans? Billions of dollars down the tubes to the testing/merit pay/bullcrap evaluations of teachers/consultants/etc., etc, etc. instead of going to really reforming education in a way to fight poverty. They might as well have just dumped that money directly into the pockets of the families of the poorest kids and they would have gotten better education results than looking for quality teacher nuggets -- or tossing more money at Teach for America.
Now, however, we have the president of the United States breaking ranks, finally sounding like the progressive many of his supporters thought they were backing in 2008. This is going to change the discourse — and, eventually, I believe, actual policy. ... Paul Krugman, NYT 
I'm a big Krugman fan but WTF is Krugman talking about? Breaks ranks from what Krugman has termed the "deficit scolds," which is where Obama has been coming from. But it's just a speech.

Because Obama made yet another speech Krugman feels we will see a change in policy? Let me tell Paul what I tell everyone about Randi and Mulgrew and de Blasio -- watch what they do, not what they say.
Mr. Obama laid out a disturbing — and, unfortunately, all too accurate — vision of an America losing touch with its own ideals, an erstwhile land of opportunity becoming a class-ridden society. Not only do we have an ever-growing gap between a wealthy minority and the rest of the nation; we also, he declared, have declining mobility, as it becomes harder and harder for the poor and even the middle class to move up the economic ladder..... And because the president was willing to assign much of the blame for rising inequality to bad policy, he was also more forthcoming than in the past about ways to change the nation’s trajectory, including a rise in the minimum wage, restoring labor’s bargaining power, and strengthening, not weakening, the safety net.
So, Obama actually uttered the words "labor bargaining power" after 5 years of turning his back on unions and especially after 5 years of engaging in drone attacks on teachers and blaming union rules for the problems in education while signing on to the "no excuses based on poverty" argument? After giving the highest praise to the likes of Michelle Rhee?

There is such an inherent contradiction between Obama's words and actions he firmly belongs in the Randi Weingarten "speaking out of 12 sides of the mouth while doing something else" hall of fame.

How Krugman refuses to address the gap between Obama rhetoric and action, especially when it comes to ed policy, is beyond me. Obama/Duncan and the rest of the pack of ed deformers have spent 5 years pushed the neo-liberal market-based idea that getting higher quality teachers and removing so-called weaker teachers is the answer to the poverty/inequality question.

Let's see Obama offer to bail out Detroit and his old town Chicago where public employee pension theft is taking place and will lead many more people into poverty and grow the inequality gap. Let him renege on the policies of his boy Rahm. Then Krugman can start talking about Obama returning to his progressive roots -- if he ever really had progressive roots.

Obama should seriously think of what Mandela might do in this situation and he will find he is a far cry from Mandela.

At least there are signs of a rising progressive wing in the Democratic Party as evidenced by Elizabeth Warren and Bill de Blasio (the jury will be out on him for a while).

A must-read piece in today's Times addressed this issue:

Coalition of Liberals Strikes Back at Criticism From Centrist Democrats

The Clintons and Obama are 3rd Way Democrats and the counter reaction to their weak-kneed moves to the right is causing them to reassess and nudge themselves in the direction of the Progressive wing -- a way to coopt. For us Randi-watchers we know exactly how that works. Just say a few words to cover your ass and stay the course. That is exactly what Obama's speech was about. Too bad Krugman keeps falling for it.


Obama Gets Real
By PAUL KRUGMAN
 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/06/opinion/krugman-obama-gets-real.html?ref=todayspaper

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Where Are Rhee, Kopp, Klein, Moskowitz, E4E, DFER When it Comes to Defending Food Stamps Program (SNAP)?

.....you might think that ensuring adequate nutrition for children, which is a large part of what SNAP does, actually makes it less, not more likely that those children will be poor and need public assistance when they grow up. ... Paul Krugman, NY Times
You mean SNAP might actually be more effective in fighting poverty than charter schools or TFA teachers? Yes it is.
economists Hilary Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach have studied the impact of the food stamp program in the 1960s and 1970s, when it was gradually rolled out across the country. They found that children who received early assistance grew up, on average, to be healthier and more productive adults than those who didn’t — and they were also, it turns out, less likely to turn to the safety net for help.
 So all these people claim to be fighting the civil rights issue of our times by building political machines to fight teacher unions, tenure, urge teachers be evaluated by test scores, pour loads of money into defending the common core.
... almost two-thirds of SNAP beneficiaries are children, the elderly or the disabled, and most of the rest are adults with children.... 
You might think that ensuring adequate nutrition for children, which is a large part of what SNAP does, actually makes it less, not more likely that those children will be poor and need public assistance when they grow up. 
Where is the outrage from those intrepid ed deformers on this issue? Not one dime to fight a real struggle against the Republican assault on hungry children. What better example of their true agenda than to see Eva Moskowitz close schools for half a day to march against De Blasio's plan to make them pay the damn rent? (City charter school advocates plan to reprise a 2012 political rally. GothamSchools, Daily News, Post)
Conservatives seem, in particular, to believe that freedom’s just another word for not enough to eat. Hence the war on food stamps, which House Republicans have just voted to cut sharply even while voting to increase farm subsidies.
Hey Paul. It ain't just conservatives.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/opinion/krugman-free-to-be-hungry.html?ref=paulkrugman&_r=0&pagewanted=print

Friday, August 23, 2013

Common Bore Hysteria: Branding Common Core as Right Wing Conspiracy While Ignoring the Left

I have read the Times consistently my entire adult life and I do not recall a single instance in which two writers [Bill Keller, Paul Krugman] wrote essentially the same article two days in a row on the same subject... Raging Horse
Port Jefferson rally last Sat.
Our pal, Raging Horse (another great MORE member blogger) has followed up other great bloggers on the NY Times hysteria over defending CC (New York Times Editorials Reveal A Complete Ignorance of Common Core).
...two days after a sizable anti-Common Core rally in suburban Port Jefferson, Long Island, the venerable New York Times saw fit to publish not one but two editorials in two days, not merely praising the Common Core State Standards, but attempting to reduce almost all criticism of it to right wing nut jobs like Glenn Beck and the Tea Party. To make matters worse, the editorials were written by Times heavy hitters Bill Keller and, sadly, Paul Krugman. Both articles reveal Keller and Krugman to be completely ignorant of both the Common Core Standards themselves, their genesis, as well as to the ever widening and deepening political opposition to the entire billion-dollar Common Core campaign.
Boy that Port Jefferson rally is scaring the b-Jesus out of the
deformers, as it the general revolt on Long Island, including the Supe in Rockville Center (Carol Burris' turf). Deformers (Diane Ravitch's blog
A Hero Superintendent in Long Island Says: “To Hell with These Scores. They Do Not Matter” -) are using "Glenn Beck hysteria" to try to scare the left into jumping on board. And anti-common core Lawn Signs urging parent to opt-out? Holy shit! We - teachers and parents and anyone who gets what ed deform is all about -- need to play a role in making a massive opt-out movement happen. (Change the Stakes will be leading the way -- next meeting is Tues, 5:30.) If I were running the union I would print a million of these things and blanket the state.

But instead we get this: Mulgrew "Frightened" By Opposition To Common Core with this comment by RBE:
Why should a debate over Common Core frighten you, Mike? Oh, right - I remember now. You head the UFT, an organization which eschews debate, shuts down opposition within the ranks and otherwise works to quell anything and anybody that isn't AFT- and UFT-leadership approved. Well, get ready for a frightful year, Mikey. ... APPR and Common Core are your babies. You were, God help us all, in at the conception of both. 
(Can someone photoshop Randi and Mulgrew as parents giving birth to CC and APPR?)

If one tracks back opposition to the CC it is clear that the uprising came from the left, not the right, which came late to the issue. Witness Susan Ohanian's campaign from DAY 1 years ago. And Leonie Haimson. And I remember when in the initial stages Diane Ravitch took a neutral "wait and see" attitude to study the issue before moving firmly into the "left" wing of opponents.

Ed Notes too took an early stand against CC not because I did any studying or thinking deeply but because of the groups and individuals who were humping it: Duncan/Obama, Gates, Randi, Walcott -- you know when the union and Tweed push something with a heavy hand it is time to run.

(Sorry I don't have the time to find links to the above -- I need to spend time on my deck contemplating my backyard while watching things grow (or try to). Every individual plant needs some cheer leading. And we are also doing some Fringe Festival plays over the last few days.)

Back to business. Right wing states are pulling the plug on support for the CC while the left rallies parents to start opting out -- deny the beast as Karen Lewis told us in Chicago two weeks ago (video will be up this weekend.)

I did a mid-term summary of the bloggers on the issue when Krugman spoke: Jumping All Over Paul Krugman on Common Core

And NYC Educator jumps in with a 3rd NY Times columnist: Charles M. Blow Joins NY Times Common Core Lovefest.
It looks like, in the space of a week, three NY Times columnists have come out swinging in favor of the Common Core. The latest is Charles M. Blow, who I'd previously found thoughtful and worthwhile. His opening salvo informs us we are not keeping up with other countries, yet our lower test scores align precisely with our disgraceful higher poverty levels. 
Back to Raging Horse:
by insinuating that most opposition to the CCSS derives from the far right, the articles are simultaneously an insult to the hundreds of thousands of educators from coast to coast who distrust or even loathe the Common Core and all that it stands for — particularly the very real fear that intrinsically related high stakes testing combined with junk science testing will lead to their termination — as well as to leading education scholars and activists such as Diane Ravitch, Lois Wiener, Gary Rubinstein, Leonie Haimson, Arthur Goldstein, Carol Burris, Anthony Cody, and Susan O’Hanian, to name but a few. Both Keller and Krugman seem oblivious to them all.
For his sake, I hope Krugman, always the most prescient and intrepid of the Times scribes, was drunk when he wrote it so that he might be excused for employing such extravagant or even silly language such as “ entirely praiseworthy” to describe a subject he clearly knows absolutely nothing about. 

Read all of it here.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Jumping All Over Paul Krugman on Common Core

Is it my fault that the other day I challenged Krugman to bring his sensible analysis to education issues (Howler Howls at Krugman and Press Corps)? I compared him so favorably to his  nincompoop NY Times fellow columnists Brooks and Kristof? Ooops! Krugman must have heard me, but his sensibility deserted him.

The blogging crew is out in full force, leaving me nothing much to say - other than a message to Michael Oppenheimer (Leonie's husband) who teaches at Princeton with Krugman: get him straight on what is going on.


Krugman Becomes a Duncan Dittohead - It's pretty suspicious that, on the eve of Diane Ravitch's book release, the dunces are in confederacy against her, and for Common Core. It's particular...

New York Times Editorials Reveal A Complete Ignorance of Common Core - But two days after a sizable anti-Common Core rally in suburban Port Jefferson, Long Island, the venerable New York Times saw fit to publish not one but tw...
 
 
Via the Port Jefferson Station Teachers Association site, here are some great photos from Saturday's rally at Comsewogue High School against the Common Core testing regime:  

Perdido: Education Reformers Are Trying To Smear Common Core Critics As Know-Nothings And Cretins Former NY Times editor and current columnist Bill Keller attacked opponents to th

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Howler Howls at Krugman and Press Corps

This column comes quite close to being deceptive. As a matter of fact... it goes over that line....
The breakdown of the mainstream press corps has been a giant problem for decades. Another huge problem: the way the guild will airbrush this problem away.  Daily Howler on Krugman column.
I'm a Paul Krugman fan. It is the first thing I read in the Times every Monday and Friday. As I was reading the Krugman piece this past Friday (Moment of Truthiness) something was bothering me when he wrote about the open distortions and mistruths that are never challenged:
aren’t there umpires for this sort of thing—trusted, nonpartisan authorities who can and will call out purveyors of falsehood? Once upon a time, I think, there were. But these days the partisan divide runs very deep, and even those who try to play umpire seem afraid to call out falsehood. 
My immediate thought was, yes, there is supposed to be an umpire. It is called the  press. Like, just maybe the very paper Krugman works for, which, to take education coverage as an example, will print any lie or distortion coming from Arne Duncan, Joel Klein, Michelle Rhee (where are stories on her cheating while the Times hammered Atlanta), Bloomberg, et al.

You'll note that Krugman never goes near the education issue while his colleagues Brooks and Kristof go wilding on teachers and their unions. Krugman talks about the Republican privatization agenda but doesn't connect the Democratic neo-liberal agenda which doesn't stray all that far. Dems may want more government spending but they want to hand the money spent to privatizers, at times making tea party anti-government types look rational.

Anyway, I was glad to see the Daily Howler (In our view, Krugman goes over the line!) take direct aim at Krugman's piece and the press corps in general though I think, as former teacher who does cover ed issues, he doesn't take enough aim at the biased ed deform press.
Press corps gets airbrushed away: Has our political system “been so degraded by misinformation and disinformation that it can no longer function?” That’s the question with which Paul Krugman started yesterday’s column. Plainly, we’d say the answer is yes. We'd say our system has been disabled that way for a rather long time. In our view, misinformation and disinformation were thoroughly clogging the system at least by the start of the Clinton-Gore years. By the end of those years, the disinformation drowned us. In that sense, Krugman was raising a very good question. If anything, he was raising this question a bit late in the game.
Good. Howler ties the Clintons to the game. But his aim is on the press corps and Krugman's letting them off the hook.
Krugman correctly suggests that our system has been degraded by misinformation to the point of breakdown. But can you see who’s been airbrushed out of the tableau he’s painting? In the passage we have posted, Krugman portrays a troubling dance between politicians and voters. Not a word is included about a third group—our badly degraded press corps. Remarkably, the press corps doesn’t exist in this column. It’s airbrushing all the way down!
Traditionally, the press corps is supposed to address misstatements by politicians! This is a very basic part of the way our system is supposed to work. Traditionally, even eighth graders have been entrusted with this basic knowledge. America’s press corps, the so-called “fourth estate,” has always played a key role in their civics texts. Krugman wiped this group off the face of the earth.
Well, some people -- those in the battle against ed deform -- certainly might agree that if the ed press corps didn't exist we just might be better off. But then again, I might ask Howler to pay more attention to the ed deform crowd and their supporters in the media (like Education Shmation).



Thursday, August 15, 2013

Neo-liberalism and Ed Deform and Krugman on Rand Paul's "Better Dead than Fed"

Ed Deform's connection to neo-liberalism can be defined in one dirty word: CHOICE
CORE in Chicago began with 8 people reading Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" to try to make sense of what was being done to the schools because so much of it didn't make sense educationally or even rationally, the idea of a grander privatization conspiracy began to make sense. In fact, the only thing that made sense.
Paul Krugman nailed Rand Paul and others of his ilk to the wall in Monday's column, Milton Friedman, Unperson. Some people connect Friedman to the emergence of neoliberalism (see Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine - movie is here) and thus, ed deform which is based on NL.

Krugman doesn't use the term "neoliberal" but has referred to the concept of "shock doctrine" in a 2011 column on Wisconsin's assault on unions where he does give Klein her dibs:
The story of the privatization-obsessed Coalition Provisional Authority [in Iraq] was the centerpiece of Naomi Klein’s best-selling book “The Shock Doctrine,” which argued that it was part of a broader pattern. From Chile in the 1970s onward, she suggested, right-wing ideologues have exploited crises to push through an agenda that has nothing to do with resolving those crises, and everything to do with imposing their vision of a harsher, more unequal, less democratic society. Which brings us to Wisconsin 2011, where the shock doctrine is on full display.
Remember, CORE in Chicago began with 8 people reading Klein's book to try to make sense of what was being done to the schools because so much of it didn't make any sense educationally, the idea of a grander privatization conspiracy began to make sense. In fact, the only thing that made sense.

Before I go on with Krugman's discussion of Milton Friedman, who called for the end of a public school system, I want to point to a thought I've been having: that basically we are seeing that many Republicans and Democrats are ideologically neo-liberals. Obama, the Clintons and so are in many ways are our union leaders, with Randi Weingarten leading the pack. In other words, you won't see UFT/AFT leaders placing the blame where it is due but instead putting it on individuals: Joel Klein, Bloomberg etc instead of educating the membership as what is really happening so they can be better equipped to defend themselves.

[By the way - look at handing principals unfettered power over the staff and Tweed's often non-intervention no matter how abusive the principal is, as the mini form of neo-liberalism.]

Here is some more info on neo-liberalism, a different animal from what is viewed as "left" leaning liberals in this country.
In the U.S. political liberalism has been a strategy to prevent social conflict. It is presented to poor and working people as progressive compared to conservative or Rightwing. Economic liberalism is different. Conservative politicians who say they hate "liberals" -- meaning the political type -- have no real problem with economic liberalism, including neoliberalism.
"Neo" means we are talking about a new kind of liberalism. So what was the old kind? The liberal school of economics became famous in Europe when Adam Smith, an Scottish economist, published a book in 1776 called THE WEALTH OF NATIONS. He and others advocated the abolition of government intervention in economic matters. No restrictions on manufacturing, no barriers to commerce, no tariffs, he said; free trade was the best way for a nation's economy to develop. Such ideas were "liberal" in the sense of no controls. This application of individualism encouraged "free" enterprise," "free" competition -- which came to mean, free for the capitalists to make huge profits as they wished.
See Afterburn for more tenets of neoliberalism and you will recognize so much of ed deform policy.

Now, back to Krugman's piece where he contrasts the libertarianism of Rand Paul with Milton Friedman, actually making Friedman look rational.
August 11, 2013

Milton Friedman, Unperson

Recently Senator Rand Paul, potential presidential candidate and self-proclaimed expert on monetary issues, sat down for an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek. It didn’t go too well. For example, Mr. Paul talked about America running “a trillion-dollar deficit every year”; actually, the deficit is projected to be only $642 billion in 2013, and it’s falling fast.
But the most interesting moment may have been when Mr. Paul was asked whom he would choose, ideally, to head the Federal Reserve and he suggested Milton Friedman — “he’s not an Austrian, but he would be better than what we have.” The interviewer then gently informed him that Friedman — who would have been 101 years old if he were still alive — is, in fact, dead. O.K., said Mr. Paul, “Let’s just go with dead, because then you probably really wouldn’t have much of a functioning Federal Reserve.” 
OK, we've established Rand Paul is an idiot. But Krugman does some interesting analysis of where the right wing Republican nut jobs have gone:
What ever happened to Friedman’s role as a free-market icon? The answer to that question says a lot about what has happened to modern conservatism. For Friedman, who used to be the ultimate avatar of conservative economics, has essentially disappeared from right-wing discourse. Oh, he gets name-checked now and then — but only for his political polemics, never for his monetary theories. Instead, Rand Paul turns to the “Austrian” view of thinkers like Friedrich Hayek — a view Friedman once described as an “atrophied and rigid caricature” — while Paul Ryan, the G.O.P.’s de facto intellectual leader, gets his monetary economics from Ayn Rand, or more precisely from fictional characters in “Atlas Shrugged.”
How did that happen? Friedman, it turns out, was too nuanced and realist a figure for the modern right, which doesn’t do nuance and rejects reality, which has a well-known liberal bias.One way to think about Friedman is that he was the man who tried to save free-market ideology from itself, by offering an answer to the obvious question: “If free markets are so great, how come we have depressions?”

Until he came along, the answer of most conservative economists was basically that depressions served a necessary function and should simply be endured. Hayek, for example, argued that “we may perhaps prevent a crisis by checking expansion in time,” but “we can do nothing to get out of it before its natural end, once it has come.” Such dismal answers drove many economists into the arms of John Maynard Keynes.

Friedman, however, gave a different answer. He was willing to give a little ground, and admit that government action was indeed necessary to prevent depressions. But the required government action, he insisted, was of a very narrow kind: all you needed was an appropriately active Federal Reserve. In particular, he argued that the Fed could have prevented the Great Depression — with no need for new government programs — if only it had acted to save failing banks and pumped enough reserves into the banking system to prevent a sharp decline in the money supply.

This was, as I said, a move toward realism (although it looks wrong in the light of recent experience). But realism has no place in today’s Republican Party: both Mr. Paul and Mr. Ryan have furiously attacked Ben Bernanke for responding to the 2008 financial crisis by doing exactly what Friedman said the Fed should have done in the 1930s — advice he repeated to the Bank of Japan in 2000. “There is nothing more insidious that a country can do to its citizens,” Mr. Ryan lectured Mr. Bernanke, “than debase its currency.”

Oh, and while we’re on the subject of debasing currencies: one of Friedman’s most enduring pieces of straight economic analysis was his 1953 argument in favor of flexible exchange rates, in which he argued that countries finding themselves with excessively high wages and prices relative to their trading partners — like the nations of southern Europe today — would be better served by devaluing their currencies than by enduring years of high unemployment “until the deflation has run its sorry course.” Again, there’s no room for that kind of pragmatism in a party in which many members hanker for a return to the gold standard.

Now, I don’t want to put Friedman on a pedestal. In fact, I’d argue that the experience of the past 15 years, first in Japan and now across the Western world, shows that Keynes was right and Friedman was wrong about the ability of unaided monetary policy to fight depressions. The truth is that we need a more activist government than Friedman was willing to countenance.

The point, however, is that modern conservatism has moved so far to the right that it no longer has room for even small concessions to reality. Friedman tried to save free-market conservatism from itself — but the ideologues who now dominate the G.O.P. are beyond saving.
When Krugman says, "The truth is that we need a more activist government than Friedman was willing to countenance," he is talking about economic intervention. The education community has seen the disaster capitalism of an activist federal, state and local government and I wish Krugman would one day give his attention to that. The common core has put both the anti-ed deform real reformers and the ultra-right anti-government wing-nuts (Glenn Beck) on the same side.

If Krugman could untangle that know he should get another Nobel Prize.

AFTERBURN 
Note how the merger mania in the airlines leads to LESS choice, higher prices and worse service. Whatever works for profits.

Some tenets of neo-liberalism as described by Elizabeth Martinez and Arnoldo Garcia at CORP WATCH:

The main points of neo-liberalism include:
  1. THE RULE OF THE MARKET. Liberating "free" enterprise or private enterprise from any bonds imposed by the government (the state) no matter how much social damage this causes. Greater openness to international trade and investment, as in NAFTA. Reduce wages by de-unionizing workers and eliminating workers' rights that had been won over many years of struggle. No more price controls. All in all, total freedom of movement for capital, goods and services. To convince us this is good for us, they say "an unregulated market is the best way to increase economic growth, which will ultimately benefit everyone." It's like Reagan's "supply-side" and "trickle-down" economics -- but somehow the wealth didn't trickle down very much.
  2. CUTTING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE FOR SOCIAL SERVICES like education and health care. REDUCING THE SAFETY-NET FOR THE POOR, and even maintenance of roads, bridges, water supply -- again in the name of reducing government's role. Of course, they don't oppose government subsidies and tax benefits for business.
  3. DEREGULATION. Reduce government regulation of everything that could diminsh profits, including protecting the environment and safety on the job.
  4. PRIVATIZATION. Sell state-owned enterprises, goods and services to private investors. This includes banks, key industries, railroads, toll highways, electricity, schools, hospitals and even fresh water. Although usually done in the name of greater efficiency, which is often needed, privatization has mainly had the effect of concentrating wealth even more in a few hands and making the public pay even more for its needs.
  5. ELIMINATING THE CONCEPT OF "THE PUBLIC GOOD" or "COMMUNITY" and replacing it with "individual responsibility." Pressuring the poorest people in a society to find solutions to their lack of health care, education and social security all by themselves -- then blaming them, if they fail, as "lazy."


Friday, December 9, 2011

Norm in The Wave: The Big Lie(s)

The Big Lie(s) and Where Bob Turner Stands
by Norm Scott
Dec. 9, 2011

Well over a decade ago they were branded as radical education reformers looking to change the way education is delivered. They were embraced by both those on the right who had been attacking public schools as a monopoly and liberals on the left who had become frustrated at the lack of progress. As an experienced educator I know from day one that they were tossing around a load of crap - no real reforms but a political ideology based on making changes that would in the long run reduce the costs of education, mainly from the largest source - the labor factor - ergo, teacher salaries. I could never manage to even use the term "reformer" and indeed started using quotes around the word until I came up with the term "education deformer" because that is what they were doing - deforming education.

The mantra of the Education Deformer
Did you know that the reason almost a quarter of the children in this nation are poor is because we have a lousy educational system? And why do we have a lousy educational system? Because we have lousy schools. And why to we have lousy schools? Because we have lousy teachers. Research shows we are told - though the actual research is rarely sited - that the biggest in school factor is not high class sizes or the principal or the number of children struggling with academics or family problems or the lack of resources provided by the people running the system – but the teacher. And didn't you know that the reason we have so many lousy teachers is because the teacher unions prevent the removal of so-called lousy teachers. But, oh, we really do love most of our teachers but if only we could remove those few bad apples. And in order to do that we have to eliminate the unions - or at the very least take away their collective bargaining rights and maybe even their ability to recruit new members (wink, wink: so we can weaken the ability of the only organize any opposition to turning the billions of dollars of public school funding over to private hands).

And we need school choice (charters) since only competition and free enterprise can work. Hey, maybe we can do the same with the police and fire departments - set up competing agencies in some higher crime and higher fire neighborhoods - so that when there is a fire people can decide whether to call 911 or 912.

Of course the only way we can accomplish any of the above is by turning over entire school systems into the hands of one person – usually the mayor – and thus removing any vestige of democratic governing or control over the billions of dollars that go into the education budget. Even better if he happens to be a billionaire who can buy the press, politicians (see Christine Quinn, et al.), and many local community organizations that might put up opposition.

And there's another big lie. That the above is a Republican attack on the public education when in fact just about every Democratic politician, led by the Commander-in-Chief and his Education Secretary attack dog, Arne Duncan who was appointed after 7 years of failure leading the Chicago school system down the road to failure following the very same ed deform policies. Did Obama, who has out-Bushed Bush on ed deform, live in Chicago, which led the way with ed deform starting in 1994, with blinders on? My answer is NOT. In fact, Obama has proven himself to be corporate all the way in so many ways that the charges he is a socialist is absurd.

So where does our local Congressman Bob Turner stand on ed deform? As I pointed out in my Nov. 25 column, Turner is a free enterprise guy. You know the type. If Eva Moskowitz' Success Charter spends $1.5 million in advertising – $1300 per child they manage to recruit and then complain that the public money they get and the free space in pubic schools is not enough – while the local public school may not even have a working copy machine – that is the free enterprise system. When the day comes that the most capable students are lured out of the local public school, leaving an underfinanced hulk with struggling students and the poorest parents, thus leading to that school being closed and parents having only a Moskowitz-run school to go to – unless they are special ed or from non-English speaking families which Eva doesn't take into her schools – there is the free enterprise system at work for you with a privately controlled monopoly replacing the supposed monopoly that had been under public control.

And speaking of Turner, he wrote a piece in The Nov. 18 edition of The Wave extolling his support for veterans. Paul Krugman wrote a column in the Times on November 13 about a proposal from Mitt Romney (whom Turner will support if he is the Republican nominee) to privatize the Veteran's Health Administration (VHA) by offering vouchers.

Krugman writes:
American health care is remarkably diverse. In terms of how care is paid for and delivered, many of us effectively live in Canada, some live in Switzerland, some live in Britain, and some live in the unregulated market of conservative dreams. One result of this diversity is that we have plenty of home-grown evidence about what works and what doesn’t. Naturally, then, politicians — Republicans in particular — are determined to scrap what works and promote what doesn’t. And that brings me to Mitt Romney’s latest really bad idea, unveiled on Veterans Day: to partially privatize the Veterans Health Administration (V.H.A.). What Mr. Romney and everyone else should know is that the V.H.A. is a huge policy success story, which offers important lessons for future health reform. Many people still have an image of veterans’ health care based on the terrible state of the system two decades ago. Under the Clinton administration, however, the V.H.A. was overhauled, and achieved a remarkable combination of rising quality and successful cost control. Multiple surveys have found the V.H.A. providing better care than most Americans receive, even as the agency has held cost increases well below those facing Medicare and private insurers. Furthermore, the V.H.A. has led the way in cost-saving innovation, especially the use of electronic medical records.

I say this all the time about politicians and union leaders: watch what they do, not what they say.
Norm blogs at: http://ednotesonline.blogspot.com/

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Ed Deform and Neoliberalism

People are comparing Egypt and Wisconsin. The link? Neoliberalism. Tattoo the word on your arm. Look at the entire ed deform program in the context of neoliberalism. Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism" is the bible ed deform resisters. Paul Krugman on Friday referenced Klein's groundbreaking work. Now if only Krugman would tie the  string to the ed deforms and tell people that charter schools are the battering ram of neoliberal assault on the public school system. Leonie Haimson's husband, Michael Oppenheimer, teaches at Princeton with Krugman. Michael should whisper sweet anti ed deformer words in his ear.

Confused about the Democratic Party support for ed deform? The Clintons are classic neoliberals and the rest of the party is in step.

Confused about why the UFT/AFT/MulGarten crew won't put up a defense? They too are neoliberals, who are close relatives of neocons. That was why Vera Pavone and I titled our review of Richard Kahlenberg's "Albert Shanker: Tough Liberal" Albert Shanker: Ruthless Neocon. We could easily have called it "Ruthless Neoliberal" but didn't want to confuse people who think neolineral is a modernized version of classic American liberalism when it is exactly the opposite.

Union leaders like Weingarten differ from the anti-union neoliberals in that they feel unions should exist - naturally - but in limited format - in support of the government/corporate state more than the membership. But of course they support the concept of unions - look how well they have done as leaders who misdirect the energies of the members. That is why Weingarten is helping find ways to get rid of teachers. See NYC Educator: A Fine Day for a Sellout

With the myriad of anti-teacher crap pervading the headlines, AFT President Randi Weingarten thinks it's a good time to discuss faster ways to fire us
If things ever get sticky just watch where they stand.

What is neoliberalism?

Yves Smith at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/al-jazeera-on-egypts-revolt-against-neoliberalism.html  has the links:
In his Brief History of Neoliberalism, the eminent social geographer David Harvey outlined “a theory of political economic practices that proposes that human well-being can best be advanced by liberating individual entrepreneurial freedoms and skills within an institutional framework characterised by strong private property rights, free markets, and free trade.”

Neoliberal states guarantee, by force if necessary, the “proper functioning” of markets; where markets do not exist (for example, in the use of land, water, education, health care, social security, or environmental pollution), then the state should create them.

Guaranteeing the sanctity of markets is supposed to be the limit of legitimate state functions, and state interventions should always be subordinate to markets. All human behavior, and not just the production of goods and services, can be reduced to market transactions.

And the application of utopian neoliberalism in the real world leads to deformed societies as surely as the application of utopian communism did…..
KRUGMAN ARTICLE BELOW THE FOLD

Shock Doctrine, U.S.A.

By PAUL KRUGMAN

Friday, January 7, 2011

Another Texas "Miracle" Dashed

 Ed activists have been on the case of the Houston so-called miracle that vaulted Rod Paige into the national spotlight under George Bush only to find out that there was massive cheating going on. It's too bad that Paul Krugman, who with every column nails the scams and crooks running their jive through the political economy doesn't make the connection to the ed scam artists.

Today he gets closer but doesn't close the deal in an article about the Texas economic "miracle."
These are tough times for state governments. Huge deficits loom almost everywhere, from California to New York, from New Jersey to Texas.
Wait — Texas? Wasn’t Texas supposed to be thriving even as the rest of America suffered? Didn’t its governor declare, during his re-election campaign, that “we have billions in surplus”? Yes, it was, and yes, he did. But reality has now intruded, in the form of a deficit expected to run as high as $25 billion over the next two years.
And that reality has implications for the nation as a whole. For Texas is where the modern conservative theory of budgeting — the belief that you should never raise taxes under any circumstances, that you can always balance the budget by cutting wasteful spending — has been implemented most completely. If the theory can’t make it there, it can’t make it anywhere.
How bad is the Texas deficit? Comparing budget crises among states is tricky, for technical reasons. Still, data from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggest that the Texas budget gap is worse than New York’s, about as bad as California’s, but not quite up to New Jersey levels.
The point, however, is that just the other day Texas was being touted as a role model (and still is by commentators who haven’t been keeping up with the news). It was the state the recession supposedly passed by, thanks to its low taxes and business-friendly policies. Its governor boasted that its budget was in good shape thanks to his “tough conservative decisions.”
Oh, and at a time when there’s a full-court press on to demonize public-sector unions as the source of all our woes, Texas is nearly demon-free: less than 20 percent of public-sector workers there are covered by union contracts, compared with almost 75 percent in New York.
Krugman concludes with:
Right now, triumphant conservatives in Washington are declaring that they can cut taxes and still balance the budget by slashing spending. Yet they haven’t been able to do that even in Texas, which is willing both to impose great pain (by its stinginess on health care) and to shortchange the future (by neglecting education). How are they supposed to pull it off nationally, especially when the incoming Republicans have declared Medicare, Social Security and defense off limits?
People used to say that the future happens first in California, but these days what happens in Texas is probably a better omen. And what we’re seeing right now is a future that doesn’t work.

Read it all here

If we could only get Krugman to take a hard look at how the future of ed deform won't work either before there is barely a shell of teacher unionism left.

And let me say right here, no matter how deep my criticisms of the people leading our union I feel teacher unions could be the major defense against the onslaught against children - yes, policies that keep kindergarten children from being allowed to play. That is why my hostility towards teacher union leaders is so great - they have walked on the other side of the line.

Check out Norms Notes for a variety of articles of interest: http://normsnotes2.blogspot.com/. And make sure to check out the side panel on right for news bits.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Krugman and Carr Columns in NY Times: Did Zombies Eat Waiting for Superman Director Guggenheim's Brain?

“I think so many people are seeing business and how it is conducted in the abstract that they have no idea about how these decisions play out.” - From David Carr's column, NY Times

This quote could also be applied to the abstract concepts being pushed by the ed deformers - I must have heard the word "choice" a hundred times at last week's PEP (I'm still working on the video) over  PS 20K being undermined by allowing Arts and Letters to expand from a middle school to K-8, thus competing for the same kids PS 20 serves in the very same building. So what if PS 20 kids have to eat lunch at 10:30?

My favorite NY Times columnist Paul Krugman (When Zombies Win) and business columnist David Carr in (A Lesson on Wall Street Failure) have two interesting and intersecting articles in the NY Times today that touch on many of our core issues.

First Krugman:
When historians look back at 2008-10, what will puzzle them most, I believe, is the strange triumph of failed ideas. Free-market fundamentalists have been wrong about everything — yet they now dominate the political scene more thoroughly than ever.
Krugman is talking economics, not education. Wouldn't we love for him to take a hard look at the free-market fundamentalist ed deformers. The zombies with their vast propaganda machine lined up against teachers certainly seem to be winning (though once we have our film "The Inconvenient Truth Behind Waiting for Superman" out the tide will turn- I'm always the optimist.)

Carr touches on one of the Zombies in chief, Davis Guggenheim who made the propaganda film we are responding too.
It’s awards season again, and critics and the academy members are deciding on their top film picks of the year. But in many corners of the business community, the issue is already settled: “Waiting for ‘Superman’ ” is the year’s must-see film.
On Wall Street and on Silicon Valley office campuses, in hedge fund boardrooms and at year-end Christmas parties, it seems you can’t have a conversation without someone talking about the movie that finally lays bare America’s public education crisis. [Sure David Carr - don't let the Zombies eat your brain by believing the manufactured chrisis.]
“Waiting for ‘Superman’ ” is one thing that Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg agree on, Rupert Murdoch talks about to anyone who will listen, David Koch of Koch Industries promotes, and Paul Tudor Jones and many of his hedge fund brethren work to support. 
More Krugman extracts (with my notations linking to ed deform)
people who should have been trying to slay zombie ideas have tried to compromise with them instead. And this is especially, though not only, true of the president.  [Obama has gone way beyond zombie ideas on ed deform.]
...President Obama, by contrast, has consistently tried to reach across the aisle by lending cover to right-wing myths. [CHECK]
...And how effectively can he oppose these demands, when he himself has embraced the rhetoric of belt-tightening? [Ed Deform is all about belt tightening - go after teacher salaries and disparge class size as a factor.]
Yes, politics is the art of the possible. We all understand the need to deal with one’s political enemies. But it’s one thing to make deals to advance your goals; it’s another to open the door to zombie ideas. When you do that, the zombies end up eating your brain — and quite possibly your economy too.  [And eating your public education school system too.]
Back to Carr
Waiting for ‘Superman’ ” follows five children and their parents as they run a gantlet to gain access to high-performing charter schools because the alternative — the public system — is a complete disaster. The film has caught the imagination of the business community because it represents a reckoning for public education and its chronic failures, making the very businesslike case that large school systems and the unions that go with them must be replaced by a customized, semi-privatized education in the form of charter schools. 
 Carr echoes Krugman when he says:
Which is odd when you think about it. If you are looking for an American institution that failed the public, made resources disappear without returning value and lacked accountability for its manifest sins, the Education Department would be in line well behind Wall Street.

By now, the notion that business is a place built on accountability and performance should be as outdated as the one-room schoolhouse. Ask yourself, what would happen if American public schools were offered hundreds of billions in bailout money? [HMMM- maybe lower class size to match private schools?] One outcome is not in the cards: its leaders would not end up back at the trough so quickly, sucking up tens of millions in bonuses as Wall Street has.
If the captains of American business are looking for a holiday movie, I have another suggestion for them. I’m not talking about “Inside Job,” which is a scabrous take on the well-documented story of how the American economy was nearly tipped over by business greed and incompetence [We must try to get the director, Charles Ferguson, to look at the ed deformers].
Nah, I’d buy them a bucket of popcorn and sit them in front of “The Company Men,” a moody and elegiac feature film starring Ben Affleck, Tommy Lee Jones and Chris Cooper as businessmen who have a moment of clarity about how American business lost its soul.

As executives at GTX, a fictitious multinational corporation involved in the transportation business, among other endeavors, they watch as many of their colleagues are laid off to meet inflated earnings targets and as numbers get ginned up to keep the stock price growing and potential acquirers at bay. And then their turn comes.

At that point, “The Company Men” becomes a film about the loss of privilege: Porsches are sold and driven away, access to the private golf club is denied and suburban mansions go on the market. But the movie delivers, over and over, a message that far from being a center of American know-how and ingenuity, much of modern business is now preoccupied with goosing the share price and tricking up the year-end bonus — about getting over by getting by. 

all the energy and resources go into the kind of financial engineering that creates quarterly numbers that Wall Street buys into.
“They are responding to the needs of the market, to the institutional investors — the large mutual funds, the money market funds,” he said. “And when you think about it, that implicates all of us because we are all investing in the market one way or another.” 
 And the takeaway is:
“I think so many people are seeing business and how it is conducted in the abstract that they have no idea about how these decisions play out.
 But Carr doesn't make a strong connection between the bullshit of WfS with the rest of the on-target stuff he is talking about.

Both Krugman and Carr articles are at Norms Notes: http://normsnotes2.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

The Verdict is in: Obama is NOT FDR - How About Hoover? Or LBJ?

A Hooverville from the 1930's

"Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it."

Some think of this as a hackneyed expression.

I live by it.

(Actually, Santayana said: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it," a statement that can be applied to world and personal histories.)

As a history major in undergrad and grad school my sense of current and future events is rooted through links to what I understand about the past. Having studied the Great Depression of the 30's, I have always been worried about The Big One hitting again, probably one of the reasons I have always been very fiscally conservative waiting like some spinster for deflation to strike once again.

But all those years I was reassured that it couldn't happen again - Glass-Steagall and all that stuff, you know. But with the complicence of the free-market Democrats - Clintons and the rest of the skunks - in the 90's, and the Bush/Chaney crew this century, we may be getting into the same territory.

I monitored the lost decade and beyond in Japan. How the nikkei - the Japanese Dow - was once close to 40,000 in the late 80's and is less than 10,000 today. People in Tokyo were walking away from their highly priced apartments as the real estate market crashed.

When the crisis here hit in 2007/8 and the market tanked, followed by a supposed recovery, I was remembering my history lessons. That after the 1929 crash, the market rebounded. The full depression didn't hit until 1932. So by my accounting, we are somewhere in 1930 or 31.

So whenever I get into big political arguments - mostly with my wife's family, many of whom will vote for Sarah Palin over Obama no matter how much they protest - and they talk about coming threats of inflation (Obama will just print money they say) - I always say I'm holding onto my cash - or rather continue to sleep on whatever I can stuff into my mattress.

I'm a very big fan of Paul Krugman, who always makes sense to me and Monday's column (The Third Depression) made a lot of sense. He is predicting that with the world-wide retrenchment in lieu of stimulus spending, we are headed for what he calls the third really deep depression. He feels that the deficit can be solved while a deflationary spiral cannot. He reminds us that as the FDR spending spree began to bring us out of the depression in 1935/6, FDR was worried about the Republican attacks for the 1936 election and was also convinced it was time to deal with the deficit. So spending was cut- and whammo - right back into the much by 1937. It took WWII to bring us out of it.

When Obama was elected in the midst of an economic crisis - the major reason he won - I wrote:

Will Obama turn out to be a great president or a failure? An FDR or a Herbert Hoover, who had an even lower approval rating than W? It could go either way. When you think of great presidents, they seem to emerge only in times of crisis. Think there are just a few lurking? FDR ran for president with a very different agenda than he ended up enacting due to desperate times. He showed the kind of flexibility that was needed. Policies that had a major impact for generations.

The only thing I have to fear is fear of Obama's dependence on the same old, same old Clinton people, who come out of places like Goldman Saks when we need some truly radical thinking.


Well, that THAT question has been answered and we know he is certainly no FDR. If Krugman proves to be right, Obamavilles will spring up all over the nation - similar to those shantytowns of the 30's (there was one in Central Park). At least Obama is calling for more stimulus spending, so he will not be looked at in the same exact light as Hoover, who was fiscally conservative.

Obama may be more LBJ than Hoover: Will he run in 2012?
In addition to the possibility of a depression, we can't expect a war to bring us out of it. Because we are in a war. And have been for 9 years. A war that is doomed to fail. Vietnam-like quagmire, anyone?

LBJ was elected overwhelmingly in 1964 and was viewed as a shoo-in for 1968. Let's view the 2012 election in that same light.

Obama is much weaker than LBJ at a comparable time after the election. We are still in 1966 territory. So let's project this scenario:

  • Democrats get smashed in 2010 mid-term elections.
  • We sink into economic crisis ala Krugman.
  • The war gets worse and worse as Obama removes some troops for political purposes and body bags accumulate. The right attacks him for being weak. The left is totally disgusted.
  • It becomes pretty clear he cannot win in 2012.
  • Sarah Palin kicks Mitt Romney's ass all over the place and looks to be a real possibility to be the Republican nominee.
  • Rampant fear races through the nation at the prospect she will be president.
  • Enormous pressure is put on Obama to withdraw.
  • Hillary Clinton comes to the rescue and becomes the Democratic nominee.
  • Election 2012: Palin vs. Clinton.

How much more fun can a politcal junky have?

That is if you are observing from your new residence in Canada.