Monday, July 16, 2018

Fuzzy Math at AFT Convention - Mike Antonucci

New York State United Teachers reported to the U.S. Department of Labor that it had 665,000 members, of whom 433,000 were currently employed. NYSUT president Andy Pallotta told the convention delegates, “I am happy to report that as of today, 85 percent of our members have re-signed a card. To give you a sense of scale, that’s over 200,000 members"
.... Mike Antonucci, EIA
Did Andy fail his math regent? Mike reports on the UFT numbers:
UFT reported almost 123,000 members to the Department of Labor. UFT told the delegates it had a 99.27% membership recommitment.
You might find that a little hard to believe, but we’ll let that slide, too. The reason is it doesn’t matter.
Interesting that the UFT is claiming almost 100% membership -- Obviously -- Jamus just took effect. I believe there are about 3000 agency fee payers -- if I remember correctly from the last election. If accurate I don't see how these numbers jive.

Let's see the numbers in 6 months to a year.

The UFT also has over 60,000 retirees, bringing the total membership to over 180,000. That's one third the membership. Will there come a day when retirees make up the bulk of the union?

The AFT reports 1.75 million members. NYSUT's 665K is about one third of the total. The UFT's Unity caucus sends 750 delegates to the NYSUT and AFT conventions, a significant total of the delegates who attend - enough to control every aspect of AFT policy and serve as an instrument of what Randi wants to do.

This is the first AFT convention I have not attended since 2008. I did go in 2006 when I sat with Mike Antonucci at the press table. I don't think Mike has attended the AFT since then but he does manage to report on some interesting aspects. 

Also read Eterno at ICEUFT: OVER 99% STICKING WITH UFT; AFT AMENDS CONSTITUTION

AFT Membership Math Is Awash in Variables

http://www.eiaonline.com/intercepts/2018/07/16/aft-membership-math-is-awash-in-variables/


The American Federation of Teachers Convention in Pittsburgh came to a close today after four days of activity. The union announced it had reached 1.75 million members, its highest total ever.

AFT also seems convinced it will hang on to those members. The union released some recommit numbers that were impressive – if a little murky.

Let’s begin at the national level, where the New York Times reported that AFT had targeted 18 states (an AFT press release said 10 states) to get members to recommit to the union. The result was 500,000 recommits out of 800,000 members (62.5%).

That’s straightforward, but when we move down to the state and local levels the figures get messy.

Being AFT’s largest affiliate by far, New York had to be one of the targeted states, and New York State United Teachers reported to the U.S. Department of Labor that it had 665,000 members, of whom 433,000 were currently employed.

NYSUT president Andy Pallotta told the convention delegates, “I am happy to report that as of today, 85 percent of our members have re-signed a card. To give you a sense of scale, that’s over 200,000 members.”

I’m not a mathematician, but I’m pretty sure 200,000 is less than half of 433,000.

We’ll let that slide in order to move down to NYSUT’s largest local, the United Federation of Teachers in New York City. UFT reported almost 123,000 members to the Department of Labor.
UFT told the delegates it had a 99.27% membership recommitment.
You might find that a little hard to believe, but we’ll let that slide, too. The reason is it doesn’t matter.
Michigan’s right-to-work law went into effect in March 2013. Seven months later, the Michigan Education Association president boasted that his union had lost only one percent of its members.
A year later, he bragged that MEA had lost only 5 percent of its members.
The following year, he said only an additional 2 percent had resigned.
Then he stopped giving those updates. Over the past five years, MEA lost almost 22 percent of its employed members.
Those choosing to stick with the union should be glad that, for the first time in their lives, that choice actually has some meaning.


2 comments:

  1. Pallotta's "more than 200K" leaves out "The Big 3" - UFT, UUP, and PSC. Combined, the big 3 account for roughly 190K teachers. I'm too lazy to look up their LM-2s, but that's close. NYSUT has never really treated those 3 unions as "theirs" so it's no surprise NYSUT would leave their numbers out of the math.

    443K in-service
    - 190K "Big 3"
    ------------------
    253K "NYSUT locals"
    x .85
    ------------------
    215K

    It's close enough to be real, if incomplete. Your thoughts on the future of union members are spot on. We don't need to worry about today, or even next year - it's those who haven't been hired yet who are at risk.

    ReplyDelete
  2. There are far fewer than 3,000 Agency payers. One point, the author made a common error, using the word jive rather than jibe. As common as using regime when regimen is proper, or career rather than careen.

    ReplyDelete

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