Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Josh Shapiro's Win More Impressive than DeSantis' but media ignores due to Trump Mania, Fetterman Won on Left Populism also ignored by media

Despite Oz attacks he was a Bernie socialist, "nothing scared Fetterman off from embracing a left economic populism and he pulled it off better than any other candidate.. unabashingly pro-union--- his lefty populism was a boon not a curse--- Krystal Ball - The Case for Left Populism

I see DeSantis as Viktor Orban in white boots and a bigger threat to democracy than Trump.

Which is funnier? DeSantis in white boots or Fetterman in a suit?

While the Dem center right media celebrates DeSantis as a positive alternative to Trump - oh the relief that we can get the Republican Party out of Trump's hands - instead of rooting for its continued internal destruction. I'm not as impressed with the win given the sclerotic former Republican Christ as his opponent and the equally sclerotic Florida Dem party which rivals the NYS one in terms of right center incompetency. And let me include the Val Demmings campaign against Rubio - when Dems run as Rhinos they often lose. I don't think Florida is as red as people think but the Dem party there needs a complete rebuilding and rebranding. 

So let's look at the Josh Shapiro win in battleground Pennsylvania over a bad opponent. Still double digits and he probably helped Fetterman win. Shapiro made inroads even in red parts of the state. He's not as progressive as Fetterman, who also made inroads in red areas. 

Look at the battle in Dem party in NYS where Adams etc attack and blame progressives for losses when it is the Sean Patrick Maloney types that created the debacle. Having Fetterman join Bernie and Elizabeth Warren as a left Dem flank in the Senate is a win win.

Despite Oz attacks he was a Bernie socialist, "nothing scared Fetterman off from embracing a left economic populism and he pulled it off better than any other candidate" - Krystal Ball

Krystal Ball on Breaking Points did a rundown on Fetterman's win making the case for a progressive platform reaching working class people in red state areas. Starting at 1:31:34.

She reminds us that Fetterman, running as a Bernie Sanders guy, overwhelmingly  won the Dem Party primary against a darling of the right Dems who had all their support and money. Conner Lamb was viewed by Dems as more electable. How did that work out with Fetterman's 30 point win?

In the general election he did better than Trump, Biden and Toomey. He cut down on rural margins. Aside from his persona she also points to what he ran on -- like Medicare for all is not a shackle as most Dems want us to believe. She points to how the media misunderstands politics, elections and voters. His debate performance actually gained him respect for trying. She takes on the argument that progressive politics are bad politics. Oz attacked him for his progressive politics. He had union support because he was so pro-union, unlike so many Dems who are defensive about union support. Also pro-weed and raised the price gouging as a cause of inflation to counter the Biden is at fault narrative. His left populism outperformed every other Dem candidate with independents.

 

And she shows this chart showing how he outperformed in every area of the state. His largest gains came in areas where Dems had been fleeing the party.


The media narrative below has things backwards:

Biden turns out to be more populist than Obama - not saying much but also Biden comes off as more authentic.

https://youtu.be/YCQ_LWNKbR4?t=5671

 

Krystal also appeared on The Lever: • LEVER TIME: The Midterm Shellacking That Never Was (w/ Krystal Ball)

And more on the progressive movement from them: 

PA’s Next Governor: The Democrat Who Picks Fights With Bad Guys“Josh Shapiro is a Ted Lasso-style politician who does the one thing most Dems never do: He names the villains.”

Eight Key Midterm Election Takeaways: The Progressive Electorate Has Spoken “We constantly hear about how progressives are too extreme; Tuesday’s results should quash that narrative.”

The REAL Reason For Dems’ Rust Belt Revival Political analyst Krystal Ball on why Democrats overperformed in the industrial Midwest — and how it could pave the way for transformational policy that challenges corporate power.

The Midterm Issue No One’s Talking About “As voters push to prioritize climate change and fossil fuels spend big on key races, less than one percent of election ads are focused on the environment.

The Lever’s Guide To The 2022 Midterms — “A look back at the blockbuster reporting we produced this election season.”

YOU LOVE TO SEE IT: Working People’s Issues Won On Election Night “Across the country, ballot measures and new candidates delivered midterm victories for economic justice and workers’ rights.”

Stuff To Watch & Listen To:

LEVER TIME: The Midterm Shellacking That Never Was (w/ Krystal Ball)The Lever’s reporters run through the midterm election results and David speaks with Krystal Ball about big-picture takeaways.

LEVER TIME PREMIUM: The Former U.S. Senator Who Became A Saudi LobbyistDavid explores how a former U.S. Senator became a lobbyist for the Saudi Arabian government.

THE AUDIT: Prioritize The Painters The study group FINALLY finishes George W. Bush’s MasterClass on leadership.

Donald Trump’s Disastrous Night (The Owen Jones Show) David joins British columnist and media analyst Owen to break down how the elections will affect the right.

Undistorted Election Discourse

Buried in Fox News’ national exit poll from this past week’s midterm election, one stat sticks out: Less than one in five Americans now say they have a great deal or a lot of “trust and confidence… in the news media when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately, and fairly.”

You can see that distrust expressed in another part of the poll that explains much about why the media-predicted red wave never materialized: As The Lever showed in our post-election analysis, a whopping 46 percent of voters rejected the media-created argument that the Biden administration’s spending policies — not corporate profiteering — is to blame for the inflation crisis.

Corporate media is completely broken right now. More and more political news is quite literally being “presented by” corporate sponsors trying to influence politics. Put another way: More and more political news is designed to distort the discourse on corporate terms rather than hold corporations and politicians accountable.

The good news is that the aforementioned survey data prove that America has woken up to the mass deception. The even better news is that building alternative reader-supported independent media is now easier than it ever was in the pre-Internet age.

That’s exactly what we’re building here at The Lever. And as you can see from this week’s clips above — and from all of our election-season reporting — we’re making a big impact.

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In truth, many in our newsroom went into election week feeling despondent. It didn't seem like there would be much to look forward to as results rolled in. We planned accordingly, writing our election postmortem — well, premortem — with a dim tone to match the anticipated dim results. But as election night wore on, we began reporting out early polling data and outcomes that afforded us a sense of cautious optimism during our election livestream event. The situation forced us to do something that, as journalists, we have plenty of experience with: be nimble.

So Wednesday morning, our editorial staff jumped in a shared Google doc and raced out an analysis unmatched by any that corporate media could deliver — one that told the story of a progressive electorate that showed up to the ballot box, inspired by the possibility of what our government, at every level, can deliver for America.

As importantly, we worked up a midterm election report that shows what can happen if and as more people awaken to the pervasive reality of a corporate hegemony. And it made us pause and ask the question: What is possible if more people read a publication like The Lever, which boldly tells the truth about power in our country?

This is ultimately our mission: to bring the truth-telling, investigative work we do to more mobile phones, kitchen tables, and coffee shops. And as paying subscribers, we owe you a debt of gratitude for allowing us to continue this kind of critical journalism.

With your support, our newsroom is not just complaining about corporate media — we’re actually building an alternative that holds power accountable.



 

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Back of the envelope election math


If people want post election order, even some Trump backers, they should root for a Biden landslide but even more a quick win - like in Florida - to end the misery early. So if you are still voting in Florida today, even for Trump, switch to Biden for the sake of the country. I actually think many in the Republican leadership will not be unhappy to see Trump lose - they are much better at opposition.

 If Biden wins I won't be euphoric, just relieved to not have to see Trump as president, though I have been predicting that Trump will run again in 2024 even if he wins -- yes, he would believe he deserves a 3rd term. Actually, assuming Biden wins and doesn't run again, the 2024 battles in both parties should be wild. Harris will face pushback. Now if Trump loses and doesn't run, the Republican battles will be wild as there are a lot of people looking to run, including Don Jr. If Trump loses he won't go away-- he and Republicans will spend the next 4 years going after every thing Biden tries to do. Biden will reach out but be stonewalled. Republicans stand for nothing other than protecting the unborn and screwing them once they are born.

And of course, if Dems don't win the Senate, it's pretty much over. And the virus and depression will cause so much devastation and unrest, the Republicans will use that to get back in operation in 2022.

But I don't have great hope for Biden -- like the floating of the god awful Rhode Island governor Gina Raimondo - anti-union, anti-worker, anti-teacher especially - for a cabinet position. What excites me about a Biden win is the coming battles inside the Dem party as a more vibrant progressive wing will be much more willing to challenge the hierarchy than we saw with Obama.

The election is so close in so many states, there is a pattern for Trump to win along the lines of last time, so don't light up a cigar yet. Let me do some back of the envelope math which on the surface should give Biden an edge. Some Trumpies are predicting a win and even a blowout. Magical thinking on the latter. With a 9 pt lead nationally Biden will get 5 million more votes than Trump but could still lose. There are also predictions of a Biden blowout. Only if he wins southern tier states even without Texas. It looks like Michigan and Wisconsin are in the bag for Biden.

Today's NYT made this important point:

If Biden seems on track to lose Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he is no longer a big favorite to win. That would suggest the polls had underestimated Trump’s support. In FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, Biden has about a 50 percent chance of victory if he loses all three Southeastern swing states. He would then probably need to win at least Pennsylvania or Arizona.

Finger nail biting time and they are running neck and neck in all three states so going from Biden 85% chance to 50-50 and that is pretty scary, which is why Trump is in play seriously. 

I've been watching the polls. I'm confused. I don't get why Trump is even in contention and it shows just how weak the Dem Party is. By all logic this shouldn't be close.

But I will go with some of the data on how different groups are voting in this analysis.

Women are for Biden, white non-college for Trump. But what about white non-college women? Does the gender gap cover them? And we hear about suburban women, who are mostly white. What about the suburban men? 

And then there is the Black vote, which reports that Trump is gaining with Black men. Also the crucial Latino vote which is a mess. Bernie was capturing it while Biden is slipping behind Hillary totals in a serious way. The Biden campaign rejected offers from the guy who ran Bernie's Latino machine for help and is now paying the price - if he had used him this election would be a slam dunk. I had assumed the influx of post-hurricane Puerto Ricans into Florida plus younger Cubans would have given Biden a real shot in Florida. And have the Dems managed to counter the socialist charge effectively? I could do a better job. I don't see Biden winning Florida and I remember how things began to sink in 2016 when Trump won Florida, followed by North Carolina - I smelled doom at that point. That same feeling tonight is an even bet. One of my hopes is that Trump has lost enough of the elderly vote in Florida due to the virus to counter the Cuban/Venezuela vote in Florida. Adv Trump.

As to age groups we hear Trump backers among the elderly has slipped and shifted to Biden. The only age group which supports Trump is the 40-60 group. Interesting. I can't figure out why but I bet health care and jobs are a key. Since Biden wins all the other age groups. Adv. Biden.

How many Hillary voters will vote for Trump this time? Are there any? Not much. On the other hand how many Trump voters from 2016 will vote for Biden? There has certainly been a move in that direction from probably about 12% of Trump voters. Adv. Biden.

Early voting - an astronomical number so far but turnout today may Trump that. Do we give the Dems an edge here? Does enthusiasm for voting due to hatred of Trump drive this engine way more than even more enthusiasm for Trump from his voters from last time? I think both are at play here but just from the people I know who would crawl across broken glass to vote, Adv Biden.

No one thought Trump would win last time so Hillary haters stayed home or voted third party. The Trump win has changed this group. What about the hard core left? Even though I still see anti-Biden refusniks, the vast majority sees Trump as a threat and after months of mourning the Bernie loss, have mostly come around. Last time about 12% did not vote for Hillary. The Green Party vote will be minimal this time and the libertarian vote which is a bit more robust will take more votes from Trump than Biden for those Republicans who can't stomach either candidate. Adv. Biden.

Young people - 14 year olds in 2016 are going to vote - that's four years worth of new voters, who mostly favor Dems. Adv. Biden.

Turnout of young people is higher than ever - Adv Biden.

Old people who died - Trump won the old vote in 2016 and even though he has slipped this time - given that Trump won this group by a lot last time, the ones no longer with us can't vote for him - but maybe the Supreme Court can find a way to rule that the dead Trump voters can still vote. Amy what's her name believes. Given that more Trump voters probably died than Hillary voters - Adv Biden.

The virus. Closing the economy vs the virus. We know that there are people who feel the virus should take its course and keep the economy open -- but reality is that even if they did, many people wouldn't participate - ie. go open restaurants - people just won't go. Try to fill a stadium - unless its a Trump rally.  - Adv Biden, big time on Trump handling of virus.

Even some evangelicals. sick of Trump, have slipped a bit - a few points but that can't help Trump if it drops from the 90s to the 80s.

It's hard for me to imagine how Ohio can be close this time and Pennsylvania not be a slam dunk for Biden given the numbers last time  - Trump slammed in Ohio but squeaked in Penn. I do think the Biden error on the energy issue in the debate will cost him points in Penn - and he had been trying to be so careful. His answer overall was terrible -- there will be a shift in jobs but how about guaranteeing energy workers they won't lose a job until it can be replaced? Not in the Biden world of neo-liberalism. If Ohio numbers are serious - even if Trump wins by 2, Penn should be Biden's - but here is where Trump plans to steal the election if it comes down to Penn -- by going after the absentee votes. Voting suppression, Adv. Trump.

I might be amending and adding to this post later. Or not if I start drinking this morning. 

I will be watching my fave podcasts and you tuber - Brian Lehrer, Krystal and Saagar at Rising, Sam Seder at Majority Report and a few others. I have the laptop and ipad and phone plus TV. I like both board guys at CNN and MSNBC and will also check out CBS since I am a fan of their morning show.


Thursday, February 11, 2016

Randi and Lily Are Democratic Party Super Delegates

While much of the Democratic Party has savaged teachers and their unions on ed deform, the leadership of this unions is part of the structure of the party. We know where they stand on Hillary/Bernie and since a good chunk of the members are anti-Hillary from the right and the left, their stand is very divisive and diverts us from the major battle. Randi was traipsing around Iowa and New Hampshire and giving credence to Teach for America by showing up to speak at their conference last weekend.

Diane Ravitch is taking a neutral stance on Hillary/Bernie and explains why in a reply to a comment on her post Hillary Won More Delegates in New Hampshire than Bernie.



Now I find this an interesting post in that while talking about the super delegates she never mentions that the presidents of the 2 teacher unions with almost 4 million members are out and out Hillary supporters who will be overriding the popular vote if they can. Randi has been tweeting that Bernie and Hillary basically tied in New Hampshire among Democrats and it was the independent vote that gave him such a big margin. I guess independents who reject Hillary don't count in the general election. It is the typical stance that the Republican choice will be so awful, everyone will hold their noses and vote for Hillary anyway. Listen, I would probably do so myself.



Rob Rendo is disturbed enough to offer the following:
How rigged the system is:
Please review the following list for names that you recognize among the superdelegates.

You will see Lily Eskelsen Garcia and Randi Weingarten right there, undermining the one man one vote fundamental to our democracy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016
Will you sign the petition to let voters decide?

http://pac.petitions.moveon.org/sign/tell-the-democratic-superdel?source=s.fwd&r_by=4412807
Will you sign this petition to the DNC to end voter manipulation?

https://www.change.org/p/democratic-national-committee-dnc-destroy-and-dismantle-the-superdelegacy-end-election-manipulation
Please forward widely

Thank you
Randi undermining democracy? I'm shocked, just shocked. Any photoshoppers out there to take these cartoons and put Randi in them?




Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Obama Ed Policies Cause Blowback - What Will it Cost in the Election?

I gave generously in 2008. I will not give.
I walked miles and knocked on doors. I will not knock.
I will vote Green for President.
Betrayal by a friend is the worst betrayal of all. 
----Carol Burris, HS principal

Did you ever think that hundreds of thousands of teachers throughout the country are refusing to contribute as they did in 2008 because the Democratic Party, from the White House on down, has cynically blamed teachers for the nation's dismal record of poverty and inequality. ---- Mark Naison
A highly placed union official recently said that there is an expectation that teachers will vote for Obama despite the anger of so many at his deformed ed policies. But the worry was that they would not put themselves out in any way to actually work for him. I certainly won't be getting up on an early Sunday morning to drive to Allentown. (I’m going to Obama with a banjo on my knee). In fact I am voting Green, as many educators in NYC are.

Mark Naison posted:
To all the Democratic Party leaders and Move On organizers who are deluging us with emails complaining that Republicans are raising more money than Democrats- Did you ever think that hundreds of thousands of teachers throughout the country are refusing to contribute as they did in 2008 because the Democratic Party, from the White House on down, has cynically blamed teachers for the nation's dismal record of poverty and inequality. I know a lot of teachers who plan to vote for President Obama; but precious few who will campaign for him or give money until the Administration's education policies begin to change
 Carol Burris, one of the most respected voices in education, a high school principal of the highest level, won't vote for Obama and to me that spells trouble for the Democrats who have led the assault on teachers, from Rahm Emanuel to Andrew Cuomo.
I gave generously in 2008. I will not give.
I walked miles and knocked on doors. I will not knock.
I will vote Green for President.
Betrayal by a friend is the worst betrayal of all.
Educators in the know are pissed off and not willing to take it anymore. It may be a drop in the bucket but maybe not. My sense is that in a close election, educators may well say fuck it and go Green or even Romney, figuring how much worse can it be? I still think it would be bad but on the other hand if my pessimistic nature takes hold and as expected a Republican like Romney makes the economy tank, as we can expect, better he (Hoover-like) take the hit and that may lead to a more liberal alternative ala Roosevelt. Or it might lead to a far right-wing takeover (Hitler in the early 1930s where what was a fringe 10 years before became the government.)

======
The opinions expressed on EdNotesOnline are solely those of Norm Scott and are not to be taken as official positions (though Unity Caucus/New Action slugs will try to paint them that way) of any of the groups or organizations Norm works with: ICE, GEM, MORE, Change the Stakes, NYCORE, FIRST Lego League NYC, Rockaway Theatre Co., Active Aging, The Wave, Aliens on Earth, etc.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

The Morning After Winners (Thompson) and Losers (Bloomberg, UFT and Anthony Weiner), Updated

Updated Thurs. Nov. 5, 10pm

From the NYTimes today:

Said one top Bloomberg campaign adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect internal discussions: "If a poll had come out showing that the race was within five points, Barack Obama would have swung into town, the United Federation of Teachers would break for Thompson and Mike Bloomberg would not be mayor today."



Addition to loser list: Obama
- See below under Losers

The big winner, and maybe the only winner in the mayoral election, was Bill Thompson. 51% to 46%. Add the other anti-Bloomberg candidates and it's a statistical tie: 51-49%.

All along I felt he was running for the 2013 race. Everyone declared him a loser from the very beginning. The obvious issues: Bloomberg was pretty popular and his money. But Thompson also ran an inept campaign, refusing to really go after Bloomberg on his education record and other issues. When Giulianni pulled the race card while campaigning with Bloomberg standing at his side, Thompson showed no fight back. A lot of the enthusiasm for Thompson that existed was due to anti-Bloomberg feeling.

Ed Notes was predicting from the get-go that Thompson didn't want to go overboard, preferring to husband his resources for the next time. And I felt that the lack of the UFT endorsement was a sort of quid quo pro, where he pretty much figured he would get it in 2013 in his face-off with Anthony Weiner, who the UFT despises. Thompson is now the most viable candidate in 2013 and has 4 years to build a war chest.

The losers:
The big loser is Michael Bloomberg. Listen to news reports and he's almost a laughing stock. Jeff Greenberg on Imus calculated what he spent per vote (I think it was thousands) and suggested Bloomberg should have just gone around in a Brinks truck and hand out a thousand dollars to everyone who promised to vote for him and he could have saved $50 million. (Thanks to Leonie, I realize he meant applying the thousand dollars a vote to the margin of victory. He could have spnet 50,000,000 by giving a thousand doilars each to 50,000 people who promised to vote for him. My math still may stink, so check it.)

By the way, if Bloomberg had donated the 100 million he spent for class size reduction in the 100 worst schools in the city he would have done a lot more to improve education for a great number of kids than anything else he's done in his education deforms. Remember what happened in Ed Koch's third term. May the same fate befall Bloomberg.

The other big loser is the UFT, which sat on the sidelines (see comments below). Their performance should cause as much embarrassment as Bloomberg faces. The numbers come out to their worst nightmare. At the debates over the Thompson endorsement at the October Delegate Assembly, the UFT leadership made the case that Thompson was a sure loser and at most could move the needle only 3 points. Let me do the math: subtract 3 from Bloomberg and I get 48%. Add 3% to Thompson and I get -- let me see now, it comes to 49% for Thompson. Thus, every time another idiot policy comes out of Tweed or out of the mouth of Bloomberg, every single teacher in the system should think about these numbers.

When the UFT folded on term limits in rejecting an ICE proposal at the October 2008 Delegate Assembly, Paul Egan also made a lame case, as I reported on my blog: In opposing the ICE amendment to the term limits resolution, UFT District 11 (Bronx) rep Paul Egan made the astounding argument that if each individual in the room went home and called their city council rep that would have a greater impact than if the UFT as an organization took a stand and pressured the reps to deny Bloomberg another term of office."

Will the election results affect the upcoming internal UFT elections? ICE/TJC will make sure to remind the members how Unity Caucus and Mike Mulgrew put Bloomberg in office.

(See the Ed Notes report from Philip Nobile on the Oct. DA:
Endorse Thomson Resolution Trashed at DA Fearful UFT Leaders Surrender to Bloombergs’s Reich)

Another big loser was mayoral wannabee Anthony Weiner, who folded like a cheap suit when faced with a few measly attacks from the Bloomberg machine. Counting on Thompson being the sacrificial lamb and would get swamped to the extent he would not be a viable candidate for mayor in the future (call it the Ruth Messinger syndrome), Weiner figured to be a shoo-in in 2013. In fact he could have beaten Bloomberg this time and maybe even handily. Look for a mea culpa, but his jelly fish spinelessness will not easily be forgiven.

Obama is also a loser here. He shunned Thompson while campaigning 5 times for Corzine. How embarrassing is that? What kind of message does it send to Democrats? Obama favors the millionaires like Bloomberg and Corzine over working politicians who came up through the ranks like Thompson.

ICE members comment on the election

Michael Fiorillo
The election results demonstrate the moral and political bankruptcy of the Unity Caucus, and particularly Randi Weingarten.

She was in many ways the chief enabler of Bloomberg's weak victory. Had she fought the overriding of term limits, had she exposed the fraud of Bloomberg's and Klein's educational regime, had she endorsed Thompson (admittedly, far from a perfect candidate), the entire political climate in the city might be perched on the edge of movement and change, and the axe might be a little further from teacher's necks. Instead, she took the craven route of sucking up to power.

Well, movement and change is going to happen regardless. Bloomberg's popularity and political support has been shown to be a Potemkin Village. If there is any validity to the Third Term Curse, then he is likely to soon become the most hated man in NYC.

It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Loretta Prisco

Certainly, Thompson was not all we wanted, but at least we would have a had a shot of having a more compassionate school system, kinder to kids and teachers. The media declared Thompson a loser a long time ago which seriously effected his ability to attract money and volunteers. If only our union...


Out of Oakland
The Perimeter Primate has left a new comment on your post "Comments on UFT and Bloomberg Embarrassing Win":

Yesterday I heard on the news that Michael Bloomberg had spent about $100 million on his campaign.

With a net worth of $16 billion (the most recent Forbes figure, making him world billionaire #17), the amount of money Bloomberg spent on his campaign was the equivalent of $312.50 to someone with a net worth of $50,000. In other words, it was a chunk, but not all that much -- relatively speaking of course.

I'm so sorry that the campaign finance laws of this country are permitting the wealth of this person to rule NYC. I'll keep my fingers crossed that more and more New Yorkers give him absolute hell for the next four years!

Monday, November 3, 2008

Election Yin and Yang

Just back from the gym. Ran into a UFT retiree. "Explain to me how the union could support a candidate who is against voting by secret ballot?" Huh? "What are you talking about? Where did you hear this?"

I know what's coming. Some kind of Obama trashing (the same thing happened last week with a retired fireman - why are they coming to me?)

"I was told by someone that he wants to take away the secret ballot." I begin turn 5 shades of green. "I don't want to talk about anything else. I just wanted to ask that question." "But McCain and Republicans view unions as enemies of big business."

I then started to explain that this position supports union attempts to organize.

"I don't want to get into it. But cry the beloved country." Oy!

Brilliant. Why get the real facts when all you need is an excuse to continue to bash Obama? My instinct is there's heavy racism acting here. The vehemence goes way beyond normal dislike of candidates. Like would this same conversation have taken place over Kerry or Gore given the same exact positions?

I also spoke to the gal who is having the Obama election night open house. She is from Canada and rethinking things if McCain wins. Or maybe just drink her way through tomorrow evening. Or the next 4 years.

On the other hand there's this from Five Thirty Eight's 3am polls:

Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

Related to this is the fact that there are now very, very few true undecideds left in this race.
MORE

Monday, September 15, 2008

Klein (Naomi) and Klein (Joel)


I finally got a glimpse of Naomi Klein, author of "The Shock Doctrine" at a panel discussion on the presidential election at Cooper Union Saturday night, where many NYC area activists, progressives, radicals, and those do-nothing community organizers gathered. Bet there were just a few coppers at Cooper lurking. I tried to smile often in case they wanted a clear picture.

The left is going crazy over Obama - and not positive crazy. People are extremely unhappy over his policies and especially his rightward drift over the past few months. How long before he starts to wear pant suits? However, where else can they go in this election? The answer is that some of the leading lights, while they will probably vote Obama because he is better than the alternative, do not view these elections as the end all and be all. Rather they look at things from the view of the level of activism and how that can force change outside the election process.

My immediate reaction is to say, "Good luck and good night" – in that order. But, darn, there's always that slight tug of optimism. Or why else would I even bother to stay involved in education? You see, I agree with the idea of creating an activist movement. But my small mammalian brain can only seem to narrow cast on the ed wavelength. And narrow cast even narrower on the union without getting too distracted.

But the UFT gets so boring so easily. Not facing the daily outrages that used to drive my anger and activism has an impact. Thank goodness for people like Under Assault, who today takes another shot at the UFT, this time focusing on the official propaganda tool, the NY Teacher.

Which brings me to Klein (Naomi), who is quickly becoming a legend for her clear thinking and analysis. And reporting too. Saturday night she was not too user friendly to Barack, stressing that he was more likely to continue Bush policies than McCain.

Huh?

Well, it seems Klein(Naomi) thinks that McCain is the real agent of change and after listing the Obama policies that line up with Bush, she pointed to the McCain claim that in the first 90 days they would remake government - mostly by eliminating it. Basically, we can see the irony being played out in front of us of the 90 days of The New Deal being dismantled 75 years later - in 90 days. That is the promise of the McCain campaign. Better eat your meat and get yer puddin' while you can because once they get rid of the FDA, FTA, etc. we will be "ptomaine nation."

That the forces backing Palin are in control of McCain and the Republican Party is increasingly clear, as he has become a total puppet so he can be president - with his strings being pulled. Not exactly a Manchurian candidate, but a puppet with the forces backing Palin pulling the strings.

Klein (Naomi) used her favorite word - "shock" to describe the tactic Palin/McCain will use.
I finally bought her book the other day and in the first few pages of reading about the 35 year war on progressives and liberals through the use of the shock doctrine, I was reminded of how Klein (Joel) and Bloomberg (Mike) used exactly that same philosophy to dismantle the NYC school system. There's more to it than I want to go into here, but those who have lived through multiple reorganizations and incompetence couldn't understand why a system in need of change would face the BloomKlein lunacy that has so shocked the system that my words to Klein (Joel) back in 2004 still echo in my mind - that the school systems of Kabul and Baghdad will recover sooner than the NYC school system. (I was later branded by Carmen Farina as having accused Klein of being worse than the Taliban. Hmmm!)

I really want to write more about the shock doctrine as I get further into the books. Today I was reminded by Under Assault about a piece done on that blog on this very idea back in January '08. So I'm going to shut up while you go over and read it.

http://underassault.blogspot.com/2008/01/shock-comparisons.html