Monday, November 3, 2008

Election Yin and Yang

Just back from the gym. Ran into a UFT retiree. "Explain to me how the union could support a candidate who is against voting by secret ballot?" Huh? "What are you talking about? Where did you hear this?"

I know what's coming. Some kind of Obama trashing (the same thing happened last week with a retired fireman - why are they coming to me?)

"I was told by someone that he wants to take away the secret ballot." I begin turn 5 shades of green. "I don't want to talk about anything else. I just wanted to ask that question." "But McCain and Republicans view unions as enemies of big business."

I then started to explain that this position supports union attempts to organize.

"I don't want to get into it. But cry the beloved country." Oy!

Brilliant. Why get the real facts when all you need is an excuse to continue to bash Obama? My instinct is there's heavy racism acting here. The vehemence goes way beyond normal dislike of candidates. Like would this same conversation have taken place over Kerry or Gore given the same exact positions?

I also spoke to the gal who is having the Obama election night open house. She is from Canada and rethinking things if McCain wins. Or maybe just drink her way through tomorrow evening. Or the next 4 years.

On the other hand there's this from Five Thirty Eight's 3am polls:

Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

Related to this is the fact that there are now very, very few true undecideds left in this race.

1 comment:

  1. It's amazing a union person could be against Obama for supporting card check, which might finally thwart the big union-busters. I too have seen apparent liberals refusing to back O. for McCain, and the only reasonable explanation is latent racism. It's really very sad.

    But we'll see tomorrow night.


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