UFT Elections 2022 - Norm takes a deep dive into #UFTelections2022

Look for further election analysis in my appearance on Noah Teachey's PD Podcast coming soon. Quick takeaways:

• Unity got slammed, losing votes in all divisions compared to the past.
• I thought newbie UFCers who actually thought we would win would be crushed - instead many were excited and already talking about 2025.
  
• UFC didn't pick up what Unity dropped (except possibly in retirees and a little bit in high schools), just about matching the 2016 oppo numbers. Beware of those calling this a great victory. At this rate of growth I will be 121 when the oppo wins in 2046.
  
• UFC gained from 2019 oppo disaster and restored a sense of an opposition, getting the most votes the oppo has ever gotten, winning the high schools with 55% and almost winning the middle schools with 44% and closing the gap in elementary and winning 33% overall, the closest in a long time.  Despite the gains, UFC did not get out the vote as well as I expected. I began the campaign thinking we could win all three teaching divisions. While we did get 44% of the teacher vote, that is due mostly to Unity's failure to bring out its vote, not due to UFC getting a big turnout - matching 2016 is still status quo - as iw winning the 7 HS Ex Bd as we did in 2016. Let's say UFC could win in 2025 or 2028 -- with these numbers? I'm not sure there is enough of a union underneath to deliver.
  
• Possibly the biggest achievement of the 2022 election may be the very existence of a United for Change broad coalition. While formed as a temporary vehicle for this election, there are signs UFC will continue in some form while giving each caucus space to develop. The 7 electeds represent all the groups and the candidates have pledged to continue working together. I love that they come from MORE, Solidarity, New Action, ICE - but also they are broad-minded to see outside their own caucus. Preliminaty meetings indicate excitement at working together.
• Is spending enormous time and money flooding teacher mail boxes with lit - for both Unity and oppo - really worth it. Also - we thought social media would bring out votes -- it didn't. Few will agree with me on these points but I will continue to stand by them. The numbers prove it.
  
• Read my pre-election comments posted July 2021: https://ednotesonline.blogspot.com/2021/07/uft-elections-part1-historical-analysis.html

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Tuesday night I made my third appearance on Noah Teachey's PD Podcast. I could spend hours talking to Noah - and I did - I think I wore him out and he was about to nod off. I talked his ear off with my analysis of the UFT election. When he releases the podcast in a week or so, it will echo many of the things I say here - but with my heavy Brooklyn accent. When I let Noah talk he asked excellent questions. I will post a link when it is ready.

 

My info is coming from the work of Jonathan Halabi on his blog. Here are his last few posts.

• UFT Election Turnout: Some Observations May 15, 2022

• UFT Election Turnout: Four Charts May 15, 2022

• Analyzing UFT Election Results: My Data May 14, 2022

Turnout: It's not just apathy 

Jon goes deep into turnout questions. I hear people in oppo say the biggest issue is apathy about the union. I don't agree - it's apathy about the union elections and general cynicism about elections and caucuses. Many refuse to vote consciously - they don't think it will make a difference.

Then there are the numbers of people who wanted to vote and didn't get ballots plus the number of late ballots that came in. See below at the end of this article for an example from a guy who wanted to vote UFC.

Below are his charts for functional, retiree, elem, ms and hs, with numbers going back to 2004. You have to be UFT election freaks like us to dig into these numbers.

Let's go division by division. I suggest some reforms along the way.

 

Retirees - massive turnout - over 27K - the UFT is weakened with well over half the total votes come from the no longer working, Unity is strengthened. Lesson retiree impact on elections.

UFC got almost 8K, just short of 30%, which is the highest total by far in a general UFT election. Most attribute that vote to Mulgrewcare, but I don't see it that way. In last year's RTC election we also got 30% and Mulgrewcare was just being announced. I assumed we would go up to 35% or more. this year. But Unity was helped by the plan not being implemented due to the court case and Mulgrew tried to run away from it -- and in some ways was successful. Imagine of the opt-outers were paying $200 a month on Jan 1? It seems even Unity people who were unhappy came home. In the over 3K new votes this time, my guess is UFC and Unity split them with an edge to Unity -- which is sort of good but disappointing as I had hoped we would get a bigger chunk. Unity went all out organizing retiree chapters all over the nation -- all dominated by Unity retirees. 

 

I don't see us moving much beyond the 30% in the future and may in fact see a slippage. Unless Mulgrewcare is implemented. Watch outcomes in the RTC election in 2024 as Retiree Advocate remains active in the RTC chapter and as a crucial part of UFC.

 

Since only 50K voted overall and retirees had 27k of that - leaving in service total at 23k - it is clearer than ever that the entire UFT is under the thumb of the rigidly controlled  RTC chapter. We need drastic reform. I would lower the threshold for retiree votes from 23.5K to a sliding scale where retiree votes cannot count for more than 25% of voting totals. Some say they should not count at all but at this time that is going too far. A sliding scale could work but I would give them two ex bd and a possible ADCom VP for retirees. They are still an important component of the UFT and while they should not be able to control the entire election, we should recognize their worth, especially since I am one and have nothing better to do in life than UFT politics.

 

Functional - worst turnout, drop for Unity, 32% for UFC. 

 

It's hard to figure out this division which also included retirees - which is so weird  and makes it impossible for oppo to win these 19 Ex bd seats.  Also included is the massive mumber of Dist 75 people. Makes no sense. Teachers should vote in their division, not functional. We need to press for this reform.

 

Another major reform would be to separate out and report on each funct chapter and pull out retirees and give them and each functional their own ex bd seats.  Ie. - Guidance, secretaries, social workers, OT/PT etc each get an es bd seat based on their division vote. Unity doesn't want this - let's push for this reform, even if we have to expand the Ex bd.

UFC did about the same as MORE/NA/Sol did in 2016. We had hoped to make inroads due to the OT/PT chapter and some key social workers running. I think we missed an opportunity with secretaries -- I spoke to many on my distribution routes and they have a lot of complaints. One thing I thought of but too late -- have UFC people talk to their own school secretaries and other functionals in their own buildings and try to build a network. I hear that there are union organizing trainings people go through. They seem to leave out such fundamentals as talking to people at this level. UFC still got 32%, a record, due to the big drop in Unity votes.

 

Elementary - UFC had a shot but it was long

I began the campaign thinking we could win this even though the gap from 2016 was massive --5K vote difference. Unity got 7K and we got 2.5k in 2016. I was hoping Unity would look like 2013 with 5K and we could double our 2016 with a strong campaign. 

It didn't happen and we missed a big opportunity as Unity dropped under 5k and we didn't even match 2016. I thought UFC had more outreach in elementary but if we did the GOTV didn't work. I got indications early on with the lack of contention in UFC by the caucuses for Elem Ex bd positions that there was not a sense of winning and when we struggled with petitions early on in that division, I pretty much gave up on winning this division.

34K elem ballots were sent out -- a lot of places to mine in the future. The oppos has a lot of work to do in elementary school. My suggestion: Choose a few key districts where UFC people have decent elem numbers and expand their networks with a local outreach program. Otherwise 2025 will be the same.

 

Middle school - Close but no cigar - Unity failure, but UFC makes no progress

We have election violations complaints but not enough to claim we lost due to those. I know there were schools where we could have/should have flushed out enough votes to win.

We thought we could win this and aimed our leafleting campaign at middle schools and literally got nothing more than we got in 2016. We barely cracked 900 votes in the entire MS division which has almost 11K. Unity totals were also abysmal --1200. We had 4 great Ex Bd candidates and it is a real shame we couldn't come up with 300 votes. I hear the biggest celebration inside Unity was that Daniel Alicea would not be on the Ex Bd -- after having voted for Unity in 2019, he became a leader of UFC and some in Unity seem to despise deserters. Unity isn't happy with HS winner Nick Bacon, still technically an elected Unity from 2019.

High Schools -- 55% for UFC waa big - I was hoping for 60%.

Ok - I'm a tough grader. Unity got slammed - under 2K - and they really wanted to win this one and there was great disappointment inside the fortress because HSVP Janelle Hinds is popular and people see this as a defeat for her personally. 

Remember, her opponent Jonathan Halabi got 600 more HS votes than she did and pre-1994 he would be on the adcom - as her 2016 opponent James Eterno who got more HS votes than her would have been hten. (Unity changed the rules after Shulman won in 1985 to at large.) 

Considered in the running as a Mulgrew successor, her fans at 52 and beyond were supposedly devastated by this loss. What were they thinking? Unity has fundamentally lost the high schools for almost 4 decades. If we had lost this time, UFC would have very little future. 

I'm adding this point to original post: Unity recruited candidates for HS seats with intention of winning: they chose big school CL or former CLs. They were turned down by some people they asked. Jonathan and I estimated they would bring in some votes. They didn't. Does that reflect Unity failure? Did their own schools come out for them but few others? Or did their own colleagues reject Unity?

Still -- over 21k high school ballots mailed, we have loads of people in the HS and we end up with 2500 votes? We won but UFC people shouldn't risk dislocating their shoulders by too much patting themselves on the backs. Instead, figure out how to get 3-4K in future elections for HS to make up shorfalls in other divisions for a real shot at winning it all. 

A major satisfaction is the election of Nick Bacon who ran with Unity and won for AFT in 2019. He was recruited by his Dist Rep. Imagine the egg on face. Unity seems to hate Nick almost as much as Daniel Alicea. Both of them were keys to bringing UFC together. While we see a number of former oppo people on the UFT Ex Bd with Unity, we now have our own reverse example in Nick -- maybe the first time we've seem an ex bd person go from Unity to oppo.

More from Jonathan

UFT Election Turnout: Four Charts

Let’s dive into the UFT election results. Let’s start with turnout. (For the beginning of the analysis, click here)

Votes Cast tells us more than Turnout Percentage

UFT Election Turnout: Some Observations

 

How many ballots were never received? How many came in late and weren't counted? Will we ever know?

 

Hi Norm, I just received my UFT ballot today [May 13] ,what should I do?  I asked for a replacement at 5:30 pm on the day of the deadline [April 25]  to ask for a replacement ballot. I was told it was too late but they sent me a ballot anyway.  Thanks Bill 

Let's see -- He asks for a ballot a half hour after deadline and receives it 19 days later. When did AAA send it out? Why?

TODAY - Meet UFC Winning HS Candidates Plus Halabi (Who pre-1994 would have won the HS VP) - #TalkOutofSchool 1PM- @WBAI 99.5 FM

Daniel Alicea, who missed by a hair of being elected to the UFT Ex Bd, interviews the HS winning candidates, along with Jon Halabi who got the most votes for HS VP from high school teachers by a wide margin but will not be on AdCom due to a Unity change in the constitution in 1994 that made that position at-large - a response to the Michael Shulman win in the 1985 election - which Unity protested and lost even worse in the second round. 

A major reform of the UFT would be re-instituting the ability of each division to elect its own VP. The "winner", Janella Hinds, also finished second to James Eterno in the 2016 election. Imagine having UFT giants like James and Jon on the leadership board? Yes, only one  of 12 people but right now the 15K people who voted for UFC which got 42% of the teacher vote, have zero representation on the AdCom and only 7% of the Ex Bd. #UFTDemocracyInAction

I'm going to advocate that the electeds bring a UFT reform practice to the Ex Bd and DA and let Unity vote it down overwhelmingly and send a message to the membership how their rights are abridged.

I can't tell you how impressed I am with the #magnificent7. They bring diversity to the opposition movement itself by representing all factions of United for Change.

Unity hacks attacked us for this diversity. They are only comfortable by being in a Borg caucus.

Of course you all know Lydia Howrilka, who I first met about ten years ago when she was going through her struggles with an evil principal and lived to fight another day. She is the acknowledged leader of Solidarity Caucus which she has kept relevant with her enormous energy and turned them into a serious player in UFT politics. She brings to the table commitment to helping teachers in trouble for no fault of their own.

Ibeth Mejia, CL of Aviation HS, comes to activism through her connection to James Eterno, who was exiled to her old school when Jamaica HS closed. James became a mentor to her and Luli Rodriguez who ran for UFT Treasurer. Ibeth transferred to Aviation and ran against I believe a Unity person and won. I've never met her in person, but from everything I know is a force. And during the campaign she and Lydia have developed a good working relationship. Ibeth is affiliated with both ICE and Solidarity. 

Edward Calamia - New Action. I've never met him or know nothing about him but hear he is a great guy.

Nick Bacon, New Action, is a chapter leader at a school in the old George Washington Campus, where Retiree Advocate Ellen Fox used to reign as CL. He has become a friend. I first met him in a UFT history study group set up by Solidarity member and one of ICE's founders, John Lawhead last summer. Nick quickly bonded with many in the oppo and became a leader, having only joined New Action recently, being appointed co-chair along with Mike Shulman. Go read Nick on the renovated New Action blog, especially his great reporting on Ex bd meetings. Now he can do that on the inside. New Action – UFT

I've met Ilona Nanay, MORE, twice. The first time was when MORE had a petition return party at Bryant Park on Feb. 12, a beautiful day weather wise. We had a brief chat but she was delightful to talk to. Then one Sunday in April she drove out to my house to pick up flyers and we talked for over an hour and boy was I impressed with her. I could have talked to her for hours. She is a chapter leader too. 

Alex Jallot, UFT Chapter Leader at Pace High School, is also from MORE and I've had only a few contacts with him but was super impressed with his interview with my fave podcaster, Noah, did a great interview with Alex: https://www.listennotes.com/search/?ocid=724915fa1f4c4efc9d27e6585a542319&q=alex+jallot. I'm looking forward to seeing him on the Ex Bd.

Ronnie Almonte, MORE, is someone I don't know. I think I met him once. I hear good things about him from a common friend. I trust her judgement. 

 

I think the iterations of this group will be fascinating to watch. To put up a reso you need 5 signatures, so if there is something controversial they will have to work toether to get 5 out of the 7. Might there be areas of disagreement? Sure -- that is a good thing - even if they disagree publicly at Ex Bd meetings. 

Yes for diversity of opinion.

Here is Daniel's announcement (and regrets that he and Yvonne Reason, Olivia Swisher and Kevin Prosen missed joing the Magnificent 7 on the board.

 

Join me, Saturday, May 14, at 1 pm for #TalkOutofSchool on @WBAI 99.5 FM for my chat with Jonathan Halabi, the longest-serving HS chapter leader, who will share his expert analysis of the 2022 UFT election. 

Also my interviews with the newly elected High School division teachers for UFT Executive Board.

They’ll share their vision for our city's teacher's union and city schools.

You can also tune in online at: http://wbai.org

UFT Elections 2022:The Good, Bad, Ugly Part 1- IT's OVER - FREEDOM (FOR ME) - Unity wins - sort of, UFC (may) live to fight another day

So it appears UFT will go on much as it always has. The three-quarters who didn’t vote are either satisfied or apathetic. Who can say which.... Mike Antouncci at Intercepts

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Much unhappiness in Mulgrewland

I as at 52 Broadway until after 7:30 last night, some UFC and Unity schmoozing. One reason to go to the election count is to interact with your election buddies and also with friendly Unity people. The rancor of Delegate Assemblies seem to fade away in that social setting. 

But I will do some social commentary in a follow up. I've been in the city for 3 days and nights and it's time to catch a ferry soon back to Rockaway to see my wife and cat and loll around in my backyard, finishing building a deck and working on the garden. But I know you don't want to hear about my life.

Though I will say that over the past 10 months I've had a blast. The first 4 months I was in the background getting daily - hourly reports on the formation of United for Change - talk about good, bad and ugly -- but on the whole ended up mostly good. I know how some in MORE feel about me so didn't want to immerse myself in negotiations - we had very competent people doing that. But I will tell the story one day in my groundbreaking best seller - The History of the Opposition in the UFT.

I got deeply involved by taking charge of the petitions for 6 weeks and then working the past few months on the lit distribution. I asked for an got a role in the UFT election committee and think I made a difference. In the overall process I got to meet many newer,younger MOREs and loved working with them and think we have developed a good relationship. Plus I worked closely with people in other caucuses, especially Lydia Howrilka whom I knew before but worked very closely with in the election.

 

Let's get to the hard facts and a few preliminary interpretations and hard numbers.

 

Eterno: UNITY WINS UFT ELECTION; UNITED FOR CHANGE WINS HIGH SCHOOLS AND TALLIES OPPOSITION RECORD 34%

 

Halabi with the most complete up to date numbers:

• Even the incomplete results are incomplete

• Unity scrapes out a win – United for Change takes high schools

• More unofficial numbers

 

Antonucci with early comment at Intercepts: Not Looking Good for Opposition in NYC Union Election  

 

Before I run to catch the ferry, a few quick notes. I was asked for a quick opinion by an outside the UFT activist. Here are the preliminary thoughts.

• Tremendous weakness for Mulgrew. Total votes for unity under 30k.
• Big drop in elementary tho we only kept pace with 2016. We would have needed a big campaign in el to close a 2k gap but getting 33% there is a breakthrough.
• We lost in middle by 170 votes which keeps Daniel off ex bd. We could have won that with a better campaign.
• Unity gets 1100 in ms and we get 930? 10k votes sent out. We hit most ms with flyers. Almost useless.
• Hs is the big one as we got 55% but deep down our number was same as 2016 and unity dropped by 200 and fell under 2k - 21k ballots in hs. sent out.
• Functional we hit a third which is breakthrough.
• Retirees was big disappointed. Massive turnout. 28k. Almost 50% turnout and swamped in school vote. I expected bigger turnout would be due to mulgrewcare and go to us. We got same % as last year so unity people came out. Still they dropped from 85-70%.
• We were a new coalition with lots of moving parts. If more organized we could have won all the teaching positions.
• I’m betting mulgrew will not run again if they can figure out a replacement.

Before I leave, check for a follow up with a realistic, not celebratory look at this election which sort of  mimics 2016. It a loss for Unity but we have to examine more deeply how much of a win it was for UFC. I may have to duck.

UFT Election 2022 - Jammed Scanners, 50K vote, Lots of Schmoozing as UFC Gang Show up, 27K Retirees Counted but no results yet - Day 2 begins with Elementary

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

We were there until 10 PM last night just as the retiree vote, which they began counting at 12:30 PM (it took them over 3 hours to get everything set up). 

I was there from the beginning and watched then set up in a separated section - I could see piles of ballots - David Hickey gave us very rough numbers on returns for each division as we came in and I reported them out. They looked low - the biggest drop seems to be elementary school and the highest number of retirees voted ever -- probably when all is said and done, over 27K, which is  clearly well over half the returns.

 

 I got some answers to questions. My first concern was ballots that arrived Monday after 8 AM - David Hickey assured me they would be counted - and maybe even some in the morning Tuesday mail. Later they called me out as a member of the election committee to say these totaled 1600 and wanted me to speak for the UFC to say yes and I did -- we came in ready to ask for them to be counted. Some people emailed me asking how I could tell they were kosher and I just don't have an answer to that. I also asked if we could examine the name of those who voted and Hickey said that would be fine. He did that with Portelos in 2016. I don't know if I have it in me to stay in that room to do that, since today we have another day of sort of observing.

When they started doing the count we realized we had no way of actually watching the ballots going through the scanners. We used to be able to look over their shoulders and watch the computer screens. They say there are 4 scanners but I only could see two. We complained and they got a UFT tech guy to set up a camera to broadcast two scanner views on the big screen where you could watch the ballots fly by -- and get a sense of how the vote is going -- except the scanner seemed to stop every 3 votes. I pretty much gave up and left that to more patient people. But there definitely seemed to be more Unity votes going by than UFC. We figured maybe 70-30, which would be disappointing because Retiree Advocate got 30% a year ago in the RTC election with 24K voting. I would have hoped the majority of the 3k more voters would lean in our direction. So far no sign of that but as they completed the count around 10 PM last night by counting the non slate votes - Jonathan said there were about only 200 of those - we still didn't get numbers.

The decision to count the biggest batch first was interesting as they could have knocked off MS, HS and elementary school and maybe even functionals yesterday. We are promised that info today and I am heading down soon.

Some reports from our colleagues:

• Halabi: Even the incomplete results are incomplete

• Eterno: TURNOUT LIGHT IN UFT ELECTION BUT UP FROM 2019

  Jonathan made this chart on turnout. I was very disappointed as we were counting on a big turnout which we think would have favored us.  These barely natch the 2016 nunbers and elementary is a big drop, though it matches 2013 and 19. Elem seems to have a pretty big swing.
  

  

  As Jonathan points out we are having problems in getting certain numbers and we will keep pressing today. While upstairs at 52 we hear there is great interest but no real concern as long as the retirees didn't go wild. Under 70% for Unity is a break from the 85% but no where as big a break as people hoped. Clearly even the Unity people unhappy with MulfrewCare couldn't pull the trigger for UFC.

  The other news was that they fed the workers and observers breakfast, lunch and dinner. Yummy. Not really.

  And we had a fun group -- the RA people of course there all day and then out working pals began arriving and we had a lot of fun hanging out - and even chatting with some Unity people -- as I said at the Ex Bd Monday night - UFT Election Riff Raff - Norm Speaks at UFT Ex Bd, - the election is over, let's talk and figure some shit out -- at the end of the evening, Daniel Alicea, Leroy Barr and I had a good and open chat where we proposed the oppo UFC group be given some official status at the DA to present a motion at every meeting and maybe a question or  two -- I mean Mulgrew has a seating chart for Unity people and says we get 10K plus votes or more, we do represent a constituency, even if a minority.
  
  Ok -- I'm heading down and will report info to Jonathan and James so look to their blogs for updates and maybe a twitter feed from me.
  

  And what would it take to get some scanners that don't jam? The past few elections cycles seem to be worse.
  

UFT Election Riff Raff - Norm Speaks at UFT Ex Bd, Heads to Vote Count at 8 AM

I wanted to be on the election committee to raise a lot of questions and may have missed the ball on many.- Norms confessions. 

Methinks Unity already has a lot more election info than UFC does: Turnout overall and in each division and may have been monitoring it all along. I had asked election chair Carl Cambria this question on turnout around the second week -- do we have numbers. He said he'd get back to me. Still waiting but I'd bet a bundle that info has been leaked to Unity all along.

If UFC were to win, Unity would refuse to hand over the keys and go to court to

protest. There is precedent when they did that to NAC in 1985 when Shulman won the HS VP. I wanted to write about the repercusions of a UFC win locally, nationally and even internationally due to the importancs Unity control is at the state and national level in supporting the Dem party and its fundamental neoliberalism. I'd bet anything that if UFC won and Unity went to court, they would win a new election.

Jon Halabi has two interesting posts with a deep dive. Must reading today before the results come in.

• What Would a Big Unity Win in the UFT Elections Look Like?

• What Would a Big United for Change Win in the UFT Elections Look Like?

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

I'm in the city getting ready to head down to 52 Broadway where the election vote count begins at 8. We can expect hours of opening envelopes and sorting the color-coded ballots into batches. I will try to live blog the count if I can get onto wifi.

Some key questions we intend to ask:

• With the deadline being a ridiculous Monday, 8AM, I want to know if there was any mail delivery at all on Monday before that time. Was there mail delivery to AAA on Sunday? Saturday? What day and time was the last acceptable mail delivery?
• How many ballots have been received after 8AM Monday and will be received? How many late ballots will there be? This is a crucial question given the vote suppression through limited GOTV days (spring break taking a chunk) and limited time for ballot replacements. Imagine of there are thousands of late ballots that go where? In the trash? We want to see Monday and Tuesday delivery ballots brought to 52 Broadway so we can examine the envelopes.
  
• Were member names scanned and tabulated as they came in or were they all done Monday after 8 AM at AAA? If as they came in, AAA had a grasp of turnout, even by districts. Did AAA at any point share turnout numbers with their employers, the UFT? If so, Unity would have had a read on turnout that UFC didn't and could have driven turnout where they were strong.
• We are asking for the names of every person who voted. That is a Dept Of Labor union election rule. I expect resistance. But we have a right to spot check to see if ballots were handled properly.
  
• When did the ballots get brought to 52 Broadway from the AAA at 120 Broadway? Monday? Or Tuesday morning? Who watches the ballots before we get there? Just a thought.

I spoke at the UFT Ex Bd last night during the 10 minute open mic period - I was running late making ferry connections and Leroy Barr was kind enough to hold my slot. I took the Rockaway ferry and arrived at Wall St at 5:15 and could have gone over to the UFT to try to speak in person. In fact I asked Leroy Barr to order me some Beef Wellington for dinner. But with covid etc I decided to jump on the quickest uptown ferry to 34St and I got to my apartment after 6 for the zoom. At the end of my statement I told Leroy he can have my beef wellington.

Nick Bacon's notes captured the essence of what I said - I copied and pasted below with a link to his blog at New Action. I didn't get notice I could speak until 5 PM and I was on the ferries, so I hurriedly scribbled some notes. I had the full ten minutes and could have easily filled them about this election but only was able to put together around 5 minutes.

What I didn't say but wished I did (in addition to the election questions I raised above) is related to the case of the UFC candidate who protested to the union that he was put on the ballot without his permission. I believe he believes that and he is probably right. But so is UFC in thinking he was OK with it based on documents I saw and submitted. I also spoke and texted with him over the weekend. 

The Exec Bd Important: Hell NO -- Leroy, Mulgrew reports and a Schirtzer Question

His problem is that he was told how important the Ex Bd position is and he is so busy he knew he couldn't serve in an important position so he asked the union to remove his name from the ballot. Leroy's report indicates that if we won the elementary schools they would remove him even though after I explained just how inconsequential and irrelevant the UFT Ex Bd was - a rubber stamp - except for Schirtzer - he was fine with being on the ballot. I wish I had said just how inconsequential the Ex Bd is.

I posted my sort of predictions yesterday:

• UFT Election 2022 is officially over: Norms Numbers - The Big If - Retiree Turnout

I don't see a bg UFC win and we need to determine what constitutes a big Unity win. Under 70% is a big win in election world but in UFT world anything in the 60s, especially the low 60s, is a win but not big.

And DOENUTS, who split his ballot, seems to match my estimates except for retirees.

• The Doenuts Blog My Picks For The UFT Election -

I fear that newbie activists

Nick Bacon -- UFT Executive Board Minutes 5-9-2022: Election Complaints, PERB, and APPR

Published May 9, 2022 Uncategorized Leave a Comment

6:01 LeRoy Barr: Open mic period: Norm Scott supposed to speak, but isn’t here. Mike Schirtzer mentions he’s running late. Leroy says if he’s running ten minutes late for the ten minute period, maybe we’ll give him 60 seconds? (Laughter).

Norm Scott: Given 10 minutes by LeRoy. Election stuff. Election is over, we’ll have results in a day or two. Things get heated. We’ve seen it. Things will tone down once it’s over and we can have some dialogue I hope. This election brought out a lot of people who weren’t involved before. Some were neutral or on other sides. But one thing that people were enraged by the most was that people weren’t being heard, whether at the DA or elsewhere. People don’t mind losing a vote if they have a chance to present their point of their view. Fine with majority rule, but the minority needs a chance to present their case. If we don’t get to talk about where we differ or disagree-that can’t happen.

Election complaints: different levels of complaining. One thing that bothered some was that people who were working for the union were doing things on union time. We were trying to track that, which caused some consternation. But we felt that if you were on the clock, you shouldn’t engage in union politics. But what we found was that we were being charged for doing things on school time. Well if we did, that shouldn’t be a UFT issue, that’s DOE. We were also stopped from giving flyers in mailboxes by Unity CLs. Can understand when a principal doesn’t get the memo, but people running on your slate should be told that they have to allow us in. We had times where we went 3 times, and were told by CLs that we wouldn’t be allowed to put in mailings.

Some complaints on what UFC has done. One complaint tonight. We had a candidate, who did not realize he was a candidate. He complained. Friday, I spoke to him and he said he didn’t complain – he made an inquiry. He showed him what he wrote, and saw that yes, it did look like a complaint. So I’m going to explain what happened – a misunderstanding. This candidate indicated he had an interest in running, but was convinced that exec board would be too much work (even though the food is great!). Once he saw his name, he realized he didn’t have the time. When I spoke to him on Friday, explained the exec board and that it involved a zoom every 2 weeks, he said that he’d be fine serving under those conditions. He had thought it was a much more time-intensive position. So this was a misunderstanding on the part of the both sides. I told him we regret it, but part of the issue is he didn’t make it quite clear. There was a lack of clarity. We have addressed that and hopefully to the satisfaction of the exec board. Please enjoy my Beef Wellington.

LeRoy Barr: 3 election complaints.

1. What Norm touched on. This complaint is election fraud by (name redacted). Complaint was made to Carl Cambria that he was placed on ballot without knowledge or consent. Spoke with Norm about this improper nomination. Recommend that complaint be upheld. In future elections, all candidates should sign a form to their nomination. Executive Board reserves right to take future action if election is impacted. Apparently candidate wasn’t aware he was on the ballot until members of his school approached him. In text exchanges, it appears that the candidate was interested in one position (NYSUT Delegate), but not executive board. Appears that there were communication issues, and our text data isn’t complete (parts of conversation deleted). The candidate does not want to be on the ballot and this allegation should be upheld. Mike Schirtzer debates. He gave his information to be on the ballot, said he wanted one position but not another, is that correct? Vote: Upheld, Schirtzer abstaining.

UFT Election 2022 is officially over: Norms Numbers - The Big If - Retiree Turnout

Monday, May 9, 8 AM  - The UFT election just officially ended. The vote count begins tomorrow at 8 AM. I intend to be there for the entire time.

And how about that party coming up win or lose. Celebrate the coalition and working together.

So this is my last chance to make a few predictions without having people call me a defeatist. I'm going to take a shot at making some educated guesses.One thing to note - newbies in UFT elections are always amazingly optimistic, while old timers are much more realistic. But we are warned not to share our true views so as not to discourage people. But with the election over, I can let loose.

I'm usually pretty good at predicting outcomes based on past history but this year things are different for a number of reasons, which I delved into in my 3 part "Why is this election different series:

• How UFT Election2022 is different? Reasons #5 Unit...
• How is UFT Election2022 different? - Reasons #3 Mu...
• How is UFT Election2022 different? Reason #1 UFC g...

Of course  the Winner is..... the garbage can caucus - people who throw the ballot in the garbage consciously or unconsciously  since non-voters will be an overwhelming majority. There's a new wrinkle this year I had never realized - enormous numbers of people who never got a ballot and never even realized there was an election going on. 

If turnout is as usual, look for a bigger win than expected for Unity. Less than in previous years, but in the 70% range. In 2016 Unity got about 40K votes and oppo got around 13k. That's a pretty big gap to close if turnout is the same.

The retiree vote is the focus of attention: 60k mailed out (How many actually got to people?) 2016 turnout 37%

The major hope for UFC has been that the 85% pro-Unity retiree vote won't hold this time due to MulgrewCare. But the question is how deep do Unity losses go? 

In order to look at potentials, we must start with a base and we use 2016 (2019 with 4 caucuses running was anomaly). In 2016 we had MORE/NA vs Unity as slate vs slate, with Solidarity not attaining slate status, but still in the race. Note the low turnout numbers, especially in the in-service divisions.

As you can see in the chart below from 2016 (thanks to Jon Halabi),  24,500 retirees voted and with the 23.5 max limit, each vote counted for .95ish.  Unity got 20K and oppo 4k. Unity got just over 20K from the entire working corps. So 50% of their vote was retirees.

So let's look at the possibilities in the retiree vote. In last year's retiree chapter election, just as the news of MulgrewCare was breaking, Retiree Advocate (RA) for just short of 7K (30%) and Unity got around 16K, compared to 2016, some serious slippage but way short of being a major difference maker in this election. There's too much ground to make up in the working divisions.  Turnout in 2016 was 37% so there's a chance for over 40%.

A key is turnout since anything above 24K will lean hard to UFC due to MulgrewCare. So retiree returns are a key. 

Ballots not received or put aside

I had been fairly optimistic of an increase in the 27-30K range, but in the past few days grew a bit discouraged.

I found that out last night when I called a former colleague to wish her a happy birthday and asked if she voted and she said "for what?" She never got a ballot. Now if there electronic voting like we requested, she still would have had time to vote before the Monday 8AM deadline.

I had the same issue with a retiree I met the other day who did have her ballot but thought she had time to mail it until Monday. Two lost votes for UFC. Unity sure knows what it is doing when it comes to vote suppression. My former colleague who is not union political said on tonight's call: They (Unity) sound like Republicans.

So let's call it an uptick in retiree vote output and let's add some Unity pissed off over MulgrewCare voting for UFC. Don't forget that Unity Caucus is massive, with retiree outposts all over the country pushing their propaganda. I'd bet one third of retirees have links to Unity. But if that 30% vote last year is a base, we have to see some expansion. Just how much above 30%? If it's 40% of retiree votes and say 26K vote, that gives UFC over 10K and Unity 16K, still too big a difference to make up. If it broke 14k Unity and 12K UFC, then it gets interesting. But in the real world it has to be bigger than 2016. Say 40-45%? That gets interesting.

The High School Vote: 22K mailed out, 7 ex bd seats at stake: 2016 turnout 20%

This is where UFC has its best chance. Unity has not won the high schools on its own since 1993 (they lost in 1991 and in 1985 too). They only won in 2007,10, 13 with New Action help. HS wins used to be as high as 3400 when the oppo was very strong in the then big schools, especially in Manhattan. But the big school breakup has helped drive down union interest, though that didn't help Unity much.

In 2016, when NAC switched sides, MORE/NA won with 2275. Add over 100 for Solidarity and we start with a base of 2,400. Unity got under 2100. So, starting with these numbers as a base, turnout is again the issue. If HS turnout is the same, it is a horse race, with UFC slightly favored. 

Unity ran a hard HS campaign

But this time Unity campaigned harder in the high schools than it has in 20 years. In the past they seemed content to give the hs to the oppo - 7% of the ex bd looks a little democratic - very little while 100% of the ex bd for Unity looks Russia like. But this time they want to stamp out the opposition or at least divide it. In 2016 a key block of votes came from Francis Lewis HS where I was involved in a GOTV campaign. With Arthur's switch to Unity, that will pull votes away from UFC in that large HS. Swap 100 votes and the election is even.

UFC also ran hard HS but did they GOTV?

But counter to that is that UFC also ran a hard HS campaign with a lot more people in a lot of high schools running in the election. The key is how well they did in getting the people in their own schools to vote. For me this is the great mystery. 

At times UFC people seemed more enamored of social media than the in school door to door GOTV. And don't forget that with the spring break and the limited time to get replacement ballots, the GOTV is up in the air. UFC HS people did go out and leaflet other schools, which I don't count on making as much a difference as rousing your own building. 

I really have no feel for how the GOTV went. If we win by a hair -- that is status quo - the usual election. If we win big - over 55%- that is a sign. Usually 5k HS vote. If it goes to 7K or above that is good for UFC. If 6K HS people vote, that would be a win for UFC. Maybe a bigger win than expected. If 5K it's 50-50. If god forbid it turns into a big win for Unity - say 55% -- then I leave this election scratching my head and retiree immediately from UFT politics.

If we lose the HS it is a bomb for UFC and I don't know if the coalition survives. After all that work and win nothing? People may just go back to their own caucuses, a win for Unity.  

Does turnout hit 30% or even 25?? That would be a potential big win for UFC, but could also reflect Unity increased turnout. 

Prediction based on word of mouth - narrow win for UFC besed on precedent and larger force in the hs. But low turnout would be a condemnation of election tactics.

One more note. HSVP Janella Hinds is popular but she can also get less votes than the UFC HS people out of the hs -- she would win due to non hs votes. Does it hurt her if UFC wins the HS? She is considered a strong contender for next UFT president, is popular with many high school teachers -- but they are not the majority of the union. See below for my comments on elem vp Karen Alford -- who by the way I was on a committee with back in 1999 when Randi set up a charter school committee under the chair of then Elem VP Michelle Bodden - than also a rumored Randi successor who disappeared into the UFT charter school with Mulgrew taking the role --- Randi's biggest mistake - among many.

Middle Schools - What is possible? 11k ballots out. 4 Ex bd seats, 2016 turnout 24%

These are only grades 6-8 schools and 4 Ex Bd seats on the line. 

Some people thought the middle schools were winnable this time. We certainly made it a point to flyer as many large MS as possible -- but as I've said, flyering has much less impact than having a person on site and I didn't see enough UFC middle school people to close the gap.

In 2016 Unity got only 1650 - 61% and oppo got only 860 for MORE/NA and almost 200 for Solidarity. If turnout goes up to 30%, can the oppo close the gap? It's a 600 vote difference so with big turnout is closeable.
Definitely Unity is favored here but I would expect a closer election - maybe 55% for Unity? If UFC gets in the 50-50 range, that ie an echo of 1991, the only time the oppo won both hs and ms.

Elemantary: 36k ballots, 26% return in 2016

I started this election telling people we could win the elementary schools if we formed a strong committee and worked target districts where we have strength. 

It didn't happen and there is not only no chance to win, but a potential big blowout for Unity. I saw some fire in the eyes in a few elementary people but mostly a flicker.

However, hope springs eternal. I was a proud elementary school teacher and often hear high school oppo people disparaging remarks - even some people wanted to break the high schools out of the union. But the turnout in elem was considerably higher than high schools.

Look at the 2016 numbers. Unity had over 7K votes - 74%. MORE/NA 2300 and Solidarity 200. That's a serious gap and my hopes were to close that down to a reasonable number that could be bridged in the next election. Unity CL and their district reps driving them dominate elementary - I'd bet every single mail box got a leaflet. Most didn't get UFC so have no concept there is a UFC. 

But let's play the output game. What if it goes over 30%? Increased output is better for UFC but with the relative weakness in elementary schools I'm not so sure.

Start with a Unity base of 7k and an oppo base of 2500. 5K would be a doubling and a victory of sorts for UFC if Unity stays at 7K or falls below. A drop to 5k for them would be a sign that despite no campaigning, the impact of Covid and the UFT response had a big effect. Plus other failures on the part of Unity.

One note - Elem VP Karen Alford is my pick for succeeding Mulgrew is the overall election goes bad for him -- like under 60%. And a big number in elementary schools looks good for her.

Functionals: 60K ballots, 2016 turnout 16%, Unity 75%

This is always a big win for Unity - and includes retirees who are counted separately. So this report is without the retiree vote ---

In 2016 Unity got about 7600 and the oppo about 2500, a major gap along the lines of elementary schools.

But a few things have happened in the functiomas. OT/PT elected oppos people. I hear social workers are pissed. Every secretary I met is unhappy. Paras are the big nut for Unity and their leader Shelvy Young is a dynamo - in fact if Unity were smart, she would be a great replacement for Mulgrew. Sooner rather than later.

Will returns go up? Even 20% would be a big move. 25% would close the gap. But I don't think UFC ran very much of an effective campaign aimed at functionals. Look for the usual big win for Unity - I'd take 65% for UFC as a win.

Summary

If we lose the HS it is a bomb for UFC and I don't know if the coalition survives. After all that work and win nothing? People may just go back to their own groups to avoid all the angst of building coalition consensus. 

A HS win would give UFC 7 Ex Bd with reps from all the groups. They'd have to work together. A long-shot win in MS would be massive with 11 dynamo Ex bd members and a base to build for the next election.

Unity Caucus Election Violation at IS 44M as Unity Chapter leader mistreats UFC Retiree

Here is another example of an abusive Unity Chapter leader mistreating a UFT retiree, as if MulgrewCare was not enough mistreatment of retirees by Unity Caucus. I reported on the PS 107K story:

• Dear UFT Member of PS 107K - How Did The UFC Fliers Disappear? The Chapter Leader Did it

The chapter leader of IS 44M was even more over the top, violating numerous chancellor regs and UFT election rules -- and also happens to be a prominent Unity candidate. Just a few photos of her work at the school - with Unity posters all over the place.

Given that her actions could spark on investigation over these violations we are not using her name in this report.

The report is from retiree Sheila Zukowsky of Retiree Advocate, who has been active in UFT elections for the first time -- yes, due to MulgrewCare - as she explains in the excellent podcast with Noah on his excellent PD podcasts. It is a great listen:

I was interviewed regarding my aborted attempt to flyer the IS44M building for the podcast  "Professional Development: The New York City Teacher Podcast".

This is the link if you care to listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAmcTvxDHdU&list=PLxHXlMQexW5zerKJGi0jIh8zmMX6AlJnU&index=43

 

 

 

Here is Sheila's written report which will be incorporated into the general election complaint being filed by United for Change.

 

I entered the former IS 44 M building at 100 W 77 St, Manhattan, at about 2 pm on April 14, 2022 in order to distribute informational  flyers to UFT members working in the building for the UFT election ending on May 9, 2022.

When I entered the building, I saw each of the 3 doors in the vestibule all had Unity flyers on every one, plus two in the lobby: one on a pillar, and one on the the security guard's plexiglass partition facing the public,  which was the first thing I saw when I  walked through the vestibule doors intro the lobby of the building. 

I was startled by the display of electioneering materials that were prohibited by the Chancellor's Regulations which was apparently going on with the blessing of the administrations of the 2 separate schools that occupied the building. The posting of these materials were in clear violation of Chancellor's Regulation D-130, which specifically states in Section I. B. 3. that material supporting candidates or slates may not be posted or displayed in a school building except on union bulletin boards in areas closed to students.

I told the security guard who I was and why I was there,  She called one of the two schools, which was apparently MS 245 and spoke to someone looking to receive permission for me to enter. I was told to wait and someone would see to me shortly. A woman arrived in the lobby of the school who did not introduced herself as from M245 as as having been "pulled out of class" but did not introduce herself further. I assumed I introduced myself and stated what my business at the school was. I presumed my interlocutor was the principal, an assistant principal, or someone else involved in the management of the school.

She was polite and calm but nevertheless was persistent in arguing  with me about my right to distribute election flyers at the school. She repeatedly told me that I could not be there on "Department of Education time" although I explained that according to the Chancellor's Regulation D-130 I.C.3., this prohibition was relevant to DOE personnel only, and that I was not a DOE employee. Nevertheless, she continued to make the same argument over and over, until I offered to show her the Chancellor's Regulation in question as well as other documents affirming my right to distribute literature. At that moment, she relented, which indicated to me that she had been aware all along that she knew I had the right to be there but was attempting to wear me down in the hope that I would go away.   At that moment, she consented to allow me to distribute the literate but she said she would have to "watch me" while I was doing it.

It was only in getting to the 4th floor, where the school's office was located, that I found out she was not a school administrator at all but the school's chapter leader. I found this out when I asked her if the  schools' administrators approved of the  posting UFT electioneering material in the public areas of the school, as I knew it was in violation of the Chancellor's Regs, and that the school principals were supposed to enforce this prohibition, according to D-130, Section I, B., 7.

At that moment, I realized I was not speaking to a school administrator, as she replied, "Well, if you had been paying attention, you would have noticed my picture on the flyer since I am a chapter leader in this building".

When we got to the office where the mailboxes were located, she stood there, in the tiny office, watching me as I placed flyers in 3 mailboxes. Then she announced that she had to be at an assembly in 10 minutes, and insisted that I leave and give the flyers to the school secretary, who was sitting nearby, for distribution. 

Therefore the Chapter Leader again committed a violation of the Chancellor's Regs by asking the secretary to distribute the literature during Department of Education time, which, as a DOE employee, she was prohibited from doing.   

When I asked the secretary if that was ok, she just shrugged. It seemed to me that the secretary did not know or did not want to admit to me whether or not she should be taking orders from the Chapter Leader, especially orders which would have her violate the Chancellor's Regulations.

In all, I feel that during the episode described above, the following Chancellor's Regs in D-130, Section I, B were violated by the Chapter Leader and indeed, the school's principal:

1. The use of any Department of Education school during school/business hours by any person, group, organization, committee, etc., on behalf of, or for the benefit of any elected official, candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee is prohibited.

3.  No material supporting any candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee may be distributed, posted, or displayed in any school building except as noted in Section I.B.4 below:

 

4. Staff mailboxes and union bulletin boards in schools and district and central headquarters offices are to be used for the following purposes only:

(2) by the union for the dissemination of union-related materials. Toward that end, the union may:

a. Place materials advocating the election of a candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee in staff mailboxes.

b. Post materials advocating the election of a candidate, candidates, slate of candidates or political organization/committee on union bulletin boards located in areas closed to students.

7. The principal is responsible for ensuring that unauthorized material is not posted, distributed or displayed.

I would like this violation to be corrected.

Thank you,

Sheila Zukowsky

UFT Retiree Advocate Caucus

 

Dear UFT Member of PS 107K - How Did The UFC Fliers Disappear? The Chapter Leader Did it

As I reported the other day, a contingent of Retiree Advocate were out in front of PS 107K in Park Slope to leaflet arriving staff with the same leaflet that the chapter leader had threatened to remove from the mail boxes - and apparently he did remove them, thus violating DOE and UFT and Department of labor election rules. I mean there was actually a chancellor's reg he violated. Try to imagine the sickness of these people -- taking stuff out of mailboxes.

The late George Schmidt told me a story about how the Unity Caucus version in Chicago used to do the same thing. So George actually mailed his newsletter through the post office - which is official US Mail and a federal violation for tampering. That year  - I think 2001 - he helped an oppo caucus win that election. If I'm still around for the next election and we raise funds we might try that for schools run by selected Unity scum.

Now my friends are kind-hearted and didn't mention his name. I wanted to but they pointed out we would be subjecting him to possible OSI investigations. Frankly, he deserves it but UFT members  don't rat others out no matter how despicable they are. By the way- Unity people have no such compunction and have actually been filing anonymous complaints against opposition people with OSI. Yes, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus. After the election we have so much delicious stuff to write about.

Here is Gloria's report on Facebook.

Electioneering at PS107K: How Did The Fliers Disappear?

Tuesday, May 3rd - bright and early. A contingent of UFT retirees from the United For Change coalition greeted staff at PS107K as they entered their school building after a long holiday weekend. Election fliers had been placed in all UFT member mailboxes the previous Wednesday, but the staff had not received them. 

That is because the school's Chapter Leader did not want United for Change fliers placed in staff mailboxes. He told our election volunteer that he felt that United for Change fliers would "influence" members about how to vote, and he threatened to remove our fliers from the school's mailboxes should he find them there. According to the teachers we spoke to on Tuesday morning, that is exactly what he did.
So, we showed up on Tuesday morning. In order to educate, rather than influence the staff, we attached the following note to the fliers we put in their hands:

 Dear UFT Member of PS 107,
        Last Wednesday, April 27 in the early afternoon, this flier about the current UFT election was placed in your school mailbox. It seems that you might not have received it. Therefore, today we are putting it directly into your hands.
      Thanks for your consideration,
       The United For Change/UFT Slate

We also made sure to visit the mailboxes after the school day started, and were able to provide the staff with additional information about the United for Change slate. Our reception at the school was overwhelmingly positive, and hopefully, we helped the UFT represented members of PS 107K to make well informed choices about the UFT election.

 

Missing UFT Election Ballot? Fill out this form for our protest of the process that left so many without ballots

Let me remind you that electronic voting would have solved this and other problems. 

We have heard of a number of members who did not receive ballots for this year’s UFT election. Some members requested replacement ballots that did not arrive. 

If you did not receive a ballot for the 2022 UFT election, please take a minute to fill out this form: http://bit.ly/missingballot

Please spread the word by sharing with your friends, colleagues, and networks.

 

 

#UFTElections2022 - Unity Caucus Voter Suppression? Let me count the ways, Is it Time to Fire the AAA?

The ultimate vote suppressors are the Unity chapter leaders and the district reps who encourage them who are telling their principals or security to not allow us in to stuff mail boxes. Some have physically blocked people or threatened to pull our lit when we leave. There's one district where this has happened more often and the district rep is actually on the election committee. But we'll deal with those stories another time after the full complaint has been written up. Here a few picture of our protest at one such school. 

I went in to leaflet a school in Rockaway on April 27 and had a nice conversation with the secretary. She is close to retirement and I told her about MulgrewCare which she knew nothing about. I asked if she voted in the UFT election. She never got a ballot. Neither did her daughter she said. She asked how she could get a replacement and I told her the only way at this point was to go to 120 Broadway. This is 12 days before ballots are due. I'm pretty sure she would have voted UFC. Maybe  her daughter too. As I report below, in 2016 she would have been allowed to call AAA. Not this time. Maybe the expectation of a closer election led to the union leadership issuing "instructions" to the AAA. I must say, this is the first time I'm beginning to suspect collusion. And I'm not alone. If we win, would be pay AAA millions of dollars to run the election again, especially with electronic voting? The AAA has a dog in the race.

Wednesday, May the 4th Be With You

I've written about Unity Caucus voter suppression before:

UFT/Unity Election2022 Scams: Voter Suppression di... 

But I get increasingly agitated as stories come in.

We begin with the premise that lower vote totals favor Unity and while they mouth the words people should vote there are a bunch if suppression tactics.
The major one was refusing electronic voting - imagine if we had it. You don't get your ballot? Simple - go on line and vote. In fact we could have save loads of money in paper ballots. But I would have argued for a dual system. With electronic voting people could vote right up to the Monday morning deadline. 

Did I say Monday morning deadline? More on that later.

Stories keep rolling in about UFT members who did not get their ballots. The deadline to ask for a replacement was artificially restricted to the last day of the spring break. So UFC people who were going around their schools to ask if people received their ballots lost over a week. 

Think of it. Ballots sent out April 8 and last day of school before spring break was April 8 and expect a few days to get them. The last day of school before the break was Thursday April 14. 

I smell something fishy because we had never faced such restrictions before. We asked for an extension and they gave us one day. Monday April 25 5PM. We know of cases where people called an on one picked up. When they reached someone aftter 5 they were told too bad. You can come down and get a ballot in person but only on April 28 and 29th. 

There are even some suspicions that if a Unity person didn't get a ballot a behind the scene arrangment will be made. Stories are floating around but I can't say if they are true.

I can remember election years where people had weeks to get a replacement. The argument from Unity is that AAA said they couldn't guarantee the replecement would reach people in time if after April 25. But so what? If not in time it still gives them a shot.

James Eterno has written about suppression on the ICE/UFT blog:

• UNITY'S VOTER SUPPRESSION CONTINUES
• LAST CHANCE TO REQUEST A BALLOT FOR UFT ELECTION

How did the UFT do in the past on this issue? In 2016 a member could call for a ballot up to one week before the ballots were going to be counted. This is what we wrote in 2016 at election time on May 17 when ballots were due on May 25 to be counted May 26:

Tomorrow is the last day to call AAA at 1 800 529-5218 to get a duplicate ballot.

The UFT gave you up until one week before the election deadline in 2016 to request a ballot if you didn't get one but this year they need two weeks. That makes no sense as we have already shown the Postal service numbers.

There is only one possible explanation for the UFT making the deadline two weeks before ballots are counted to call for a ballot: Voter Suppression. 

In my view, the UFT feels a low turnout helps Unity Caucus, which is their major (really only) concern.

How many people did not get a ballot? We have no way of knowing.

Then there is the due date and time the ballot must be received by. Monday May 9 at 9 AM? Are they kidding? The morning of the day after a weekend? Shouldb't it be at the very least midnight so Monday mail delivery counts? And should it have been on a Monday at all? Imagine you mail it out tomorrow- Thursday -- almost no chance of it getting there. 

There are people who have not yet voted and if they don't do so today or tomorrow they have little chance of getting there on time.

I will demand a count of late ballots as a member of the election committee. I'd bet ballots will be coming in for days. Postmark should count.

The actual voting times when you think of school days where people work to get out the vote over the election period, assuming mail send out on April 8 should be received by April 12 was in reality a total of 3 working days before the vacation and zero time for replacements by mail. 

UFC people have been beating the bushes in their schools since spring break. For those who didn't get a ballot, too late. Some misplaced the ballot? Ask for a replacement? Too late. But there are people who still had the ballot as late as yesterday - let's face it - UFT elections are not primary on the minds of most people.

I'm not going to claim that these suppression tactics are enough to lose UFC the election. But they will affect the vote totals. And that is important. Even if we lose, there is a big difference if Mulgrew gets 80% of 60%. 

I'll get into my range of expected numbers later or tomorrow.

Check out Halabi's latest:

If Mulgrew wins…