POLITICO Pro Breaking News:
American Federation of Teachers urges members to support Biden, Sanders, Warren
Bloomberg Strategy: A
Brokered Democratic Convention, Super Delegates (Randi is one) - I bet
on Klobuchar being the brokered choice- Nov. 25, 2019
So the news yesterday was that the AFT held some kind of town hall - I found a message on my machine -- another rigged event to make things look democratic - we heard for months that Randi wanted Warren but her weakness put them in this position of Biden (Mulgew running as delegate), Warren and Bernie who we know is the last choice so a victory of sorts for Bernie, just like the non-endorsement by the Culinary Workers in Nevada after they attacked Bernie was a victory of sorts after some kind of pushback from the rank and file. I bet the AFT polls must have showed some strength for Bernie. But to endorse these 3 pretty much takes us nowhere and in fact moves us to a brokered convention - which I where I believe Randi wants to go so she and her super delegates make the difference.
And it is clear that Bloomberg is the least likely candidate to beat Trump.
OK. So I was wrong on Klobuchar as a consensus. But the article below from
Politico pretty much affirms my prediction on the Bloomberg strategy, though I didn't consider how many Dem hypocritical politicians Bloomberg would buy, including my own congressman, Gregory Meeks -- and I'm going to a fund raiser tomorrow for his primary opponent
Shaniyat Chowdhury -
www.shan2020.com.
The key to the Bloomberg strategy are the 750 party chosen super delegates, of which Randi is one (and possibly Mulgrew). We know that Bernie is not the choice of the party leaders because he is an existential threat to their control in addition to being a threat to their political stances on a number of issues, including on foreign policy of policing the world. And note the Bloomberg team's suggestion that the others get out of his way -- and don't be surprised to see some money floating in their direction (I wonder about Yang dropping out.)
In 2016, the super delegates threw their support to Hillary and the way that unfolded upset Bernie people since they are not elected delegates. But Hillary did have the majority anyway. This time the super delegates can't vote until the 2nd ballot - which Randi claimed was one of her ideas when we saw her at an appearance at the CUNY Labor School a few months ago. Recently with Bernie looking like a threat, there were some calls to go back to giving them a vote on the first ballot to stop Bernie.
Bernie is expected to have a plurality but with so many candidates not a majority, so on the first ballot no one will win.
The question that was asked by Chuck Todd at the debate about these rules and only Bernie said the plurality should get the nomination - he wasn't given time but did get in the point about the unelected super delegates having the ability to overrule the leader.
Now if it's close in terms of numbers - say Bernie has 1000, Biden 700, etc - then I can see some discussion where someone with 51% of the delegates gets the nomination. That process would be a problem. But say Bernie has 1700 out of the 1900+ and the others gang up to pool their votes along with super delegates. That will not be pretty and already people are thinking of going to the convention to push back in the streets against this possibility. It would certainly split the party and lead to the same type of situation we saw in 1968 in Chicago where the party machine made sure to hand Hubert Humphrey the nomination over Eugene McCarthy and cause enough of a split to elect the much hated Nixon (even more than Trump is in some ways - of course in 1968 Trump was recovering from his bone spurs). Even with that split Nixon only won be a hair.
If say Bloomberg get pushed ahead of Bernie in a brokered convention, we will have a disaster. I'm not even shocked at how many Democrats are willing to overlook so much baggage Bloomberg carries. Imagine Trump trotting out woman after woman who makes claims against Bloomberg. And imagine Trump trotting out example of people who were stopped and frisked just for giggles.
Bloomberg quietly plotting brokered convention strategy
The effort is designed as a
potential backstop to block Bernie Sanders by poaching supporters from
Joe Biden and other moderates.
hhttps://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/20/bloomberg-brokered-convention-strategy-116407
Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg's effort comes as the prospect of a contested convention becomes less and less remote. | George Frey/Getty Images
LAS
VEGAS — Mike Bloomberg is privately lobbying Democratic Party officials
and donors allied with his moderate opponents to flip their allegiance
to him — and block Bernie Sanders — in the event of a brokered national convention.
The effort, largely executed by
Bloomberg’s senior state-level advisers in recent weeks, attempts to
prime Bloomberg for a second-ballot contest at the Democratic National
Convention in July by poaching supporters of Joe Biden and other
moderate Democrats, according to two Democratic strategists familiar
with the talks and unaffiliated with Bloomberg.
The outreach has involved
meetings and telephone calls with supporters of Biden and Pete Buttigieg
— as well as uncommitted DNC members — in Virginia, Texas, Florida,
Oklahoma and North Carolina, according to one of the strategists who
participated in meetings and calls.
With
Sanders’ emergence as the frontrunner in the presidential primary,
Democrats in those states have recently raised the prospect that the
democratic socialist could be a top-of-the-ticket liability.
“There’s
a whole operation going on, which is genius,” said one of the
strategists, who is unaffiliated with any campaign. “And it’s going to
help them win on the second ballot … They’re telling them that’s their
strategy.”
It’s
a presumptuous play for a candidate who hasn’t yet won a delegate or
even appeared on a ballot. And it could also bring havoc to the
convention, raising the prospect of party insiders delivering the
nomination to a billionaire over a progressive populist.
Other candidates have quietly been
in contact for months with superdelegates — the DNC members, members of
Congress and other party officials who cannot vote on the first ballot
at a contested national convention — but none have showcased it as a
feature of their campaign, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Asked
about Bloomberg’s efforts, spokeswoman Julie Wood said Thursday, “We
have an enormous apparatus that is constantly reaching out to all types
of people for support and to explain why we think Mike is the best
candidate to take on Donald Trump."
The
rule prohibiting superdelegates, or automatic delegates, from voting on
the first ballot of a contested convention was instituted only after
the last convention, which followed a primary in which superdelegates
overwhelmingly sided against Sanders and with the establishment-oriented
Clinton.
The
reduction of those delegates’ power was a major victory for the
Democratic Party’s left flank, while many Democrats, regardless of
ideology, believed it could help broaden the party’s appeal to young
voters skeptical of centralized party power. Earlier this year, when a
small group of DNC members began
gauging support for a potential policy reversal
to allow superdelegates to vote on the first ballot, DNC officials
quickly dismissed the idea, and even proponents of a change acknowledged
they could not get traction for it.
If
Sanders secures a plurality of delegates but loses the nomination on a
second ballot, many moderate and progressive Democrats alike predict the
national convention in Milwaukee would devolve into chaos.
Bloomberg’s effort comes as the prospect of
a contested convention becomes less and less remote. That development
is in part because of Bloomberg’s own late entry into the race. The
billionaire former New York City mayor’s deluge of spending on
television advertisements and campaign infrastructure put him into
contention, while further muddling the Democratic primary field.
Many
moderates, including Bloomberg’s supporters, fear that the centrist
vote may be divided, allowing Sanders, the more progressive senator from
Vermont, to reach the convention with more delegates than any of them.
If
Sanders accomplishes that — but fails to amass the 1,991 delegates
necessary to clench the nomination on the first ballot — superdelegates
could prove pivotal, a possibility raised in Wednesday’s presidential
debate.
Asked
if the person who arrives at the convention with the most delegates
should become the nominee, even if he or she falls short of a majority,
Sanders said “the will of the people should prevail” and that “the
person who has the most votes should become the nominee.”
In contrast, Bloomberg and every other candidate suggested convention rules should dictate the outcome — meaning only a candidate with a majority of delegates should claim the nomination.
Following
the debate, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who has
endorsed Bloomberg and chaired the 2012 Democratic National Convention,
said a second ballot will likely be required this year.
“I
think everybody’s going to be scrambling for delegates,” he said. “And I
think all the candidates made that clear, except for Sanders.”
Bloomberg
was battered in the debate here Wednesday, his first since announcing
his candidacy. Bloomberg, who is bypassing the first four nominating
states and focusing instead on Super Tuesday, was criticized for his
extraordinary wealth, for allegations that he made derogatory remarks
about women and for his years-long defense of “stop-and-frisk” policing.
But
Bloomberg’s fortune has allowed him near-limitless spending, and his
campaign’s outreach to superdelegates reflects an operation that can
afford not only to advertise, but to organize in any state.
Rising
in recent polls, he has sought to cast the contest as a two-person race
between him and Sanders, despite the votes that other moderates —
unlike Bloomberg — have already won in early contests. The campaign this
week suggested Biden, Amy Klobuchar and Buttigieg are only siphoning votes away from Bloomberg and enabling Sanders.
“Look, I think if the election were
today, Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with the delegate
lead,” longtime Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson told reporters
Wednesday night. “In part that is because the moderate lane of the party
is split, and … many of the candidates are going to split that vote.
Now, that may change between now and Super Tuesday, but I think if the
election were today, that would be the result.”
He called Bloomberg “the best-positioned candidate to take on Bernie Sanders.”
Responding to a question at the debate
on Wednesday about whether the person with the most delegates should be
the nominee, Bloomberg said, “Whatever the rules of the Democratic
Party are, they should be followed.”
Asked if that meant the convention should “work its will,” Bloomberg replied, “Yes.”
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