8. A “Yes” vote will save Europe. “Yes” would mean more austerity and social destruction, and
the government that implements it cannot last long. The one that follows will
not be led by Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis – the last leaders, perhaps
anywhere in Europe, of an authentic pro-European left. If they fall, the
anti-Europeans will come next, possibly including ultra-right elements such as
the Greek Nazi party, Golden Dawn. And the anti-European fire will spread, to
France, the UK and Spain, among other countries..... James Galbreath, Politico
If you think the world is a dangerous place now, just wait. When Michael Fiorillo sent around a Galbreath piece on 9 myths, I noticed 8 - which makes this exact point.
Tomorrow is the referendum in Greece and the rest of the
world has tried every means to force a YES vote, which would lead to the
fall of the Tsipras party. I've been thinking about what that would
mean and went back into post WWI history for an analogy. Germany was
saddled with such horrific reparations that a crippled unstable economy
was guaranteed. And we know where that led.
Greece argues that imposed drastic austerity - like blood letting until you die - is unsustainable without debt relief (Yes screw those hedge funds). Europe says no -- keep paying us those billions and eat out of garbage cans. In fact they finally admitted that the plan they offer to Greece will never remove the debt. So this is in perpetuity. Greece might as well bite the bullet now.
What does Greece have to do with the assault on public education? Well, given that this assault is taking place world-wide by some of the same forces - note the hedge fund involvement in both Greece and Puerto Rico as just one chip in the attack -- I see analogies. Starve the public schools to degrade them to the point where privatization - the removal of controls over public monies - becomes the only option.
Austerity for schools, removal of unions (or buying them off, alla Gates and the AFT and NEA) as an obstacle - which they haven't been too much of -- "freeing" teachers to be contract workers, etc. -- and why we need a more activist union - and sorry you guys, a social justice oriented leadership has the political analysis that leads to activism - especially in its core value of bottom vs top down of the current leadership.
Take Greece under a leftist government that fights more for the common man than the bankers (again an analogy to the UFT) and make a decision it must be smashed and that government removed (also an analogy to Chicago where a left-leaning union must be undermined - see the 1400 layoffs a year before the Chicago union election). They do this by using an economic squeeze play since they can't do it externally - well they can just by having America invade -- or use the CIA to overthrow the government -- and by the way, there is some history of America instigation in Greece since WWII.
I wrote about Greece and the Paul Krugman column last Monday:
Greece is the Word = Ed Deform Agenda, Krugman Endorses Leaving Euro, Why We Need Tsipras Party Running UFT.
On Friday, Krugman once again touched on Greece and the general austerity "solution" imposed by European leaders - and advocated by the conservative/tea party wing here in the states. See:
Europe’s Many Economic Disasters which opens with:
It’s
depressing thinking about Greece these days, so let’s talk about
something else, O.K.? Let’s talk, for starters, about Finland, which
couldn’t be more different from that corrupt, irresponsible country to
the south. Finland is a model European citizen; it has honest
government, sound finances and a solid credit rating, which lets it
borrow money at incredibly low interest rates. It’s
also in the eighth year of a slump that has cut real gross domestic
product per capita by 10 percent and shows no sign of ending. In fact,
if it weren’t for the nightmare in southern Europe, the troubles facing the Finnish economy might well be seen as an epic disaster.
Holy shit: Finland too? The bastion of education nirvana?
Why
are there so many economic disasters in Europe? Actually, what’s
striking at this point is how much the origin stories of European crises
differ. Yes, the Greek government borrowed too much. But the Spanish
government didn’t — Spain’s story is all about private lending and a
housing bubble. And Finland’s story doesn’t involve debt at all. It is,
instead, about weak demand for forest products, still a major national
export, and the stumbles of Finnish manufacturing, in particular of its
erstwhile national champion Nokia. What
all of these economies have in common, however, is that by joining the
eurozone they put themselves into an economic straitjacket.
Krugman feels the Euro was a major mistake, given that there was no political alignment to go with it.
Given that today is July 4th, let's think about the 13 original states in 1781 from 1787-9. The same kind of debates took place - the US could have been separate states and we would be like Europe -- and there still might be slavery in the south. Imagine New Jersey money - Christie could be president of New Jersey. Oh, what a world we missed out on.
I am a Krugman fan, and he is proved right so often - like his call in 2009 for much higher spending not austerity to kill the depression -- and Obama went only halfway which is why things are taking so long. An interesting piece yesterday by The Daily Howler pointed out how mainstream media acts like Krugman doesn't exist as they feign ignorance -- I'll do a follow-up later with the points The Howler makes as he castigates so-called commentators like Chris Matthews.
.....there
are many European officials and politicians who are opposed to anything
and everything that might make the euro workable, who still believe
that all would be well if everyone exhibited sufficient discipline. And
that’s why there is even more at stake in Sunday’s Greek referendum than
most observers realize.
One
of the great risks if the Greek public votes yes — that is, votes to
accept the demands of the creditors, and hence repudiates the Greek
government’s position and probably brings the government down — is that
it will empower and encourage the architects of European failure. The
creditors will have demonstrated their strength, their ability to
humiliate anyone who challenges demands for austerity without end. And
they will continue to claim that imposing mass unemployment is the only
responsible course of action.
Krugman is the possibly the only mainstream commenter urging a NO vote.
What
if Greece votes no? This will lead to scary, unknown terrain. Greece
might well leave the euro, which would be hugely disruptive in the short
run. But it will also offer Greece itself a chance for real recovery.
And it will serve as a salutary shock to the complacency of Europe’s
elites.
Or
to put it a bit differently, it’s reasonable to fear the consequences
of a “no” vote, because nobody knows what would come next. But you
should be even more afraid of the consequences of a “yes,” because in
that case we do know what comes next — more austerity, more disasters
and eventually a crisis much worse than anything we’ve seen so far.
Now on to the Galbreath piece, which does a little wiffle waffle.
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/07/9-myths-about-the-greek-crisis-000131
The citizens of Greece face a referendum Sunday that could
decide the survival of their elected government and the fate of the country in
the Eurozone and Europe. Narrowly, they’re voting on whether to accept or
reject the terms dictated by their creditors last week. But what's really at
stake? The answers aren’t what you’d think.
I have had a close view of the process, both from the US and
Athens, after working for the past four years with Yanis Varoufakis, now the
Greek finance minister. I've come to realize that there are many myths in
circulation about this crisis; here are nine that Americans should see through.
1. The referendum is
about the Euro. As soon as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced the
referendum, François Hollande, David Cameron, Matteo Renzi, and the German
Deputy Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel told the Greeks that a “no” vote would amount
to Greece leaving the Euro. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European
Commission, went further: he said “no” means leaving the
European Union.
In fact the Greek government has stated many times that – yes or no – it is
irrevocably committed to the Union and the Euro. And legally, according to the
treaties, Greece cannot be expelled from either.
2. The IMF has been
flexible. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde claims that her
institution has shown “flexibility” in negotiations with the Greeks. In fact,
the IMF has conceded almost nothing over four months: not on taxes, pensions,
wages, collective bargaining or the amount of Greece’s debt. Greek chief
negotiator Euclid Tsakalatos circulated a briefing on the breakdown that gives
details, and concludes: “So what does the Greek government think of the
proposed flexibility of the Institutions? It would be a great idea.”
3. The creditors have
been generous. Angela Merkel has called the terms offered by the creditors
“very generous” to Greece. But in fact the creditors have continued to insist
on a crushing austerity program, predicated on a target for a budget surplus
that Greece cannot possibly meet, and on the continuation of draconian policies
that have already cost the Greeks more than a quarter of their income and
plunged the country into depression. Debt restructuring, which is obviously
necessary, has also been refused.
4. The European
Central Bank has protected Greek financial stability. A central bank is supposed to protect the financial
stability of solvent banks. But from early February, the ECB cut off direct
financing of Greek banks, instead drip-feeding them expensive liquidity on
special “emergency” terms. This promoted a slow run on the banks and paralyzed
economic activity. When the negotiations broke down, the ECB capped the assistance,
prompting a fast bank run and giving them an excuse to impose capital controls
and effectively shut them down.
5. The Greek
government is imperiling its American alliance. This is a particular worry of some US conservatives, who see
a leftist government in power and assume it is pro-Russian and anti-NATO. It is
true that the Greek Left has historic complaints against the US, notably for
CIA support of the military junta that ruled from 1967 to 1974. But in fact, attitudes
on the Greek Left have changed, thanks partly to experience with the Germans. This
government is pro-American and firmly a member of NATO.
6. Alexis Tsipras
called the IMF a “criminal” organization. That was, charitably, an overheated headline slapped by Bloomberg
onto a very moderate parliamentary speech, which correctly pointed out that the
IMF's economic and debt projections for Greece back when austerity was first
imposed in 2010 were catastrophically optimistic. In fact, every letter from
Tsipras to the creditors has been couched in formal and respectful language.
7. The Greek
government is playing games. Because Finance Minister Varoufakis knows the economic field
of game theory, lazy pundits have for months opined that he is playing
“chicken” or “poker” or some other game. In Heraklion two weeks ago, Varoufakis
denied this as he has done many times: “We're not bluffing. We're not even
meta-bluffing.”
Indeed there are no hidden cards. The Greek red lines – the points of principle
on which this government refuses to budge – on labor rights, against cuts in
poverty-level pensions and fire-sale privatizations – have been in plain view
from day one.
8. A “Yes” vote will save Europe. “Yes” would mean more austerity and social destruction, and
the government that implements it cannot last long. The one that follows will
not be led by Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis – the last leaders, perhaps
anywhere in Europe, of an authentic pro-European left. If they fall, the
anti-Europeans will come next, possibly including ultra-right elements such as
the Greek Nazi party, Golden Dawn. And the anti-European fire will spread, to
France, the UK and Spain, among other countries.
9. A “No” vote will
destroy Europe. In fact, only the “No” can save Greece – and by saving
Greece, save Europe. A “No” means that the Greek people will not bend, that
their government will not fall, and that the creditors need, finally, to come
to terms with the failures of European policy so far. Negotiations can then
resume – or more correctly, proper negotiations can then start. This is vital,
if Europe is to be saved. If there ever was a moment when the United States should
speak for decency and democratic values – as well as our national interest – it
is right now.
James K. Galbraith
holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations at the
Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, the University of Texas at Austin.
He has followed the Greek drama in Greece, Brussels, Paris and Berlin since
January. His most recent book is “The
End of Normal: The Great Crisis and the Future of Growth.”
