Thursday, April 3, 2014

NYSUT Update: EIA Analyzes NYSUT Delegate Vote

My unscientific extrapolation estimates Revive NYSUT holds about 56 percent of the delegates, Stronger Together 24 percent, and 20 percent are unknown or undecided... EIA
Mike Antonucci crunches the numbers based on endorsement of big local presidents for the Mulgrew/Weingarten Revive Slate.

Is he missing something by assuming the rest of the delegates from the big locals will vote the way their leaders want them to like the Unity clones? What if that 56% doesn't vote as a block? Other than the roughly Unity controlled NYC 32% the other 24% will not hold firm because those local presidents don't have the control over their people like Unity does.

Other than a few Unity people defecting because they want to leave Unity anyway and maybe some PSC (Prof. Staff Congress - CUNY) defections, we are hearing that there may be a lot more defections from UUP (SUNY), Rochester, Syracuse, Buffalo and maybe even Yonkers.

I at no point believed Stronger Together will win, but have believed that anything from 70-30 to 60-40 is a defeat for Randi with some talk of leaving NYSUT and joining the NEA by some locals. Anything above 40% approaching half the vote is massive.

In case you are not aware, Arthur Goldstein running for Exec VP gets to address the convention Saturday morning -- some of these delegates are bound to be impressed. In addition, MORE, not running on Stronger Together, will send 2 speakers to the podium to explain how the Unity machine operates, amongst other issues  -- Mike Schirtzer and Lauren Cohen -- the new faces of the opposition here in NYC. MORE's other candidates (Julie Cavanagh, Jia Lee, James Eterno and Francesco Portelos have yielded their time). Expect at least some withering away from the big locals. Maybe not enough to win but ....

Here is Antonucci's post with a great graph -- if NYSUT was run like the US Senate where each state gets the same vote it would be a landslide for Stronger Together. Not that I am advocating that. But imagine if our election here in NYC elected delegates by our local school districts rather than winner take all? A reform that might be worth fighting for.
Posted: 03 Apr 2014 07:34 AM PDT
More than two months ago I posted my thoughts on the New York State United Teachers election headlined “Iannuzzi Is Toast.” My conclusion had nothing to do with the policies of the incumbent NYSUT president or his slate, nor did it take into account the policies of his challengers, Revive NYSUT. I simply took a look at the number of delegates and the locals pledged to the challengers, particularly the largest teachers’ union local in the nation, the United Federation of Teachers.
In recent weeks Iannuzzi’s slate, named Stronger Together, has trumpeted its growing list of endorsements by NYSUT local presidents and boards. We started to see graphs like this one.

That’s an impressive show of strength and it would be decisive if the NYSUT Representative Assembly assigned a single vote to each local. But the votes are weighted according to the size of the local, and that’s where Stronger Together gets a lot Smaller Together.

I don’t have a list of delegates and I have no special insight into how individuals might vote on the open floor (no secret ballot in NYSUT). But the two slates are using local endorsements as a proxy for voting power and I will, too. I know how many teachers are in each district they represent and can usually add pretty well.

I took a look at the list of 300 or so local presidents on the Stronger Together web site and discovered: a) there was some double-counting of locals; and b) the total number of teachers those locals represented came to about 60,000.
UFT by itself has 64,000 active full-time K-12 teachers.
So if UFT stood alone, Stronger Together would have a fighting chance to pick up votes from the rest of the delegation. But the Revive slate also boasts the endorsement of virtually all of the largest locals in NYSUT: the Professional Staff Congress, the United University Professions, and the K-12 unions in Buffalo, Rochester, Yonkers and Syracuse. Stronger’s largest declared local is the Brentwood Teachers Association, representing about 1,100 teachers.

My unscientific extrapolation estimates Revive NYSUT holds about 56 percent of the delegates, Stronger Together 24 percent, and 20 percent are unknown or undecided. Iannuzzi’s slate would have to capture all of the undecideds and peel off about 11 percent of Revive’s delegates while holding on to all of its own.

My prediction: Revive NYSUT picks up at least 60 percent of the vote. If it climbs to 70 percent, I would not be surprised.


Anonymous said...

This guy is such an a**hole. I don't know why you keep giving him any credence Norm. Let the election play out and let's see what happens. If the NYC Unity votes are the difference, Mulgrew-Weingarten have lost big time. All of those small locals have delegates, in addition to their presidents. The delegates in small locals will probably vote with their presidents. They average about three each. If there are 250 (let's forget the 300 number for a minute) that is 250+250+250+250. Those presidents plus their 3 delegates = 1000. Even if some delegates defect, it mostly negates the NYC Unity and PSC blocs. This is not over by any stretch of the imagination. UUP is the second largest local and there will be plenty of UUP defections from Revive.

ed notes online said...

Mike calls them as he sees them - he has no dog in this race - no anti-union bias expressed in this situation. I don't agree with where Mike is coming from but I always respect his reporting. I hope to see him in LA at the AFT convention where we can hash things over. Remember - no one reported on the big Puerto Rico break from NYSUT - and if anything he was leaning the PR way - but due to his glee at seeing AFT weakened.

Anonymous said...

How about dealing with the math part of the comment? My sources tell me the momentum is with Stronger Together. They may actually pull this off. Of course Mike has a dog in the race. He is anti union.