Monday, April 7, 2014

NYSUT Election Update: Message to Revive: Now that you broke it, you own it

Well, Revive certainly broke NYSUT with the claim that the Stronger Together leadership wasn't militant enough -- one very big joke. So now they own it.

And Revive will come under the very same attacks they used on Stronger Together starting ---- yesterday. Even with 100% of the Unity block voting for him, Revive's Martin Messner won with 53.7% of the weighted vote while Stronger Together incumbent Lee Cutler came in with 46.3%.

In fact the Julie Cavanagh vs Mulgrew numbers (Julie Cavanagh Defeats Mulgrew Outside NYC With 52.3% of Vote) show just how soft the support for Revive is -- let's split the baby -- say half of Julie's votes were due to people knowing her and the other half anti-Mulgrew. So even the big cities had some clear drift toward the Stronger Together candidates.

James Eterno at the ICE blog (REVIVE WINS; MORE DOES VERY WELL OUTSIDE NYC) shows how Stronger Together incumbent Lee Cutler beat Martin Messer (whose tweets put him in slug territory) with 70% of the vote outside NYC. James explains:
A detailed look at the numbers for the election, which we have said was run on as tilted a playing field as a UFT election, shows it was much closer than most people expected.  Outside of New York City, Revive candidates either lost or only won by a small margin.  The difference in this election was the New York City UFT Unity Caucus bloc of votes. 
These Delegates are bound by their caucus obligations to support the decisions of their caucus in public and union forums (the so called Unity loyalty oath) so we knew 34% of the vote (the percentage the UFT has in this election according to what we looked at) was going to Revive from the start. That is a healthy head start.

For Secretary-Treasurer, Revive's Martin Messner won with 53.7% of the weighted vote while Stronger Together incumbent Lee Cutler came in with 46.3%. We got to know Lee Cutler during the last month and found him to be a decent guy who did a pretty good job as an officer. We are not surprised that he won a huge percentage of the vote outside of New York City. Let's look at some of the details.

There were 328,014 weighted votes that were cast in the election for president.  It was less for other offices which is not unusual in any election. Since 34% of the votes were from the UFT and this was a non secret ballot, we can safely assume that all of the UFT votes were for Revive's Martin Messner.

Outside of NYC we can conclude there were 216,489 weighted votes by simply subtracting 111,525 (34% of the total weighted votes cast) from 328,014 (number of weighted votes cast for president).  Now subtract from Messner's totals the same NYC 111,525 weighted votes from his 175,790 total and he is left with 64,275 votes while Cutler keeps all of his non NYC weighted votes which add up to 151,526.  Outside of NYC, where the election is not a top down mandate from Michael Mulgrew, Cutler won easily with 70% of the vote to Messner's 30%.

The same holds true if we take out the NYC votes from the other officers. Stronger Together's Maria Neira, Kathleen Donahue, and of course Dick Iannuzzi won easily outside of NYC. It was also very competitive outside of the city for Arthur Goldstein against Andrew Pallotta for Executive Vice President.


Anonymous said...

One of my biggest regrets in life is not having Mr.Scott as my math teacher.

Anonymous said...

Like most newly elect officials have experienced the honeymoon will be over quickly!