Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Weiner owes bump in the polls to black voters, Spitzer Soars Over Stringer, Does Lhota Have a Chance? Moskowitz in Future

I'm ordering pins for the UFT leadership to wear: December 31, 2029.
Weiner owes his bump in the polls to black voters, 31 percent of whom favor him for mayor, compared to Christine Quinn's 16 percent and Bill Thompson's 14 percent. Weiner also leads among men. ... Village Voice

‘Tabloid Twins’ Spitzer and Weiner lead in new NYC poll.... Support from African-Americans boosted Weiner and Spitzer, the “Tabloid Twins,” says Maurice Carroll, poll director. “Whether those numbers hold up in the real poll on primary election day is the big question,” Carroll said in a statement. Weiner earned support from 31% of black Democrats, compared with 16% for Quinn and 14% for former comptroller William Thompson, who is African-American. Quinn takes the support of white voters with 22% compared with 20% for Weiner and 12% for Thompson. Spitzer also has a big margin of support among black voters, who favor him over Stringer 51% to 26%. USA Today

Weiner's candidacy, for now, seems generally healthy: His fund-raising in the latest filing period was better than that of any of his Democratic rivals, too.
Oy! Black voters favor Weiner over Thompson? No wonder the UFT sent out a desperate plea the other day for Thompson support. Remember Bloomberg's prediction? UFT endorsement was the kiss of death. Given current numbers it looks like a Weiner/Quinn runoff. Remember back in 2009 when the UFT didn't endorse Thompson, claiming that at most the UFT endorsement can move the needle is 2? Thompson looks like a dead duck.

That puts the UFT in the position similar to 2001. In a Weiner/Quinn runoff the UFT has no choice but to go for Quinn who at least they have a relationship with, as opposed to Weiner who they always have despised. Imagine if  Weiner wins that too. Then what does the UFT do in a Lhota/Weiner race? Sit on the sidelines or endorse Weiner over the Lhota Bloomberg-like nightmare. Weiner isn't much better but still.....

This is really the UFT's worst nightmare.

You know, from the very beginning I predicted that the entire Merryl Tisch pro-Thomson scenario, while her husband supported Lhota, was to create enough confusion to enable Lhota to win. The idea was to make sure that neither Liu or de Blasio reached the runoff. Check.

If Thompson, de Blasio and Liu all combined their totals in one candidate they might have a chance. I wonder what would happen if the bottom 2 (Liu and de Blasio) dropped out? Would Thompson then be able to compete? I bet he still wouldn't make the runoff but at least it would be close.

For people like me, what to do? I want Liu first and de Blasio second and my vote doesn't move the needle at all. Can I vote for Thompson? I guess NYC Educator's analysis Thompson for Mayor sort of makes sense. My problem is, can I pull the trigger?

Stringer YES
I know that people think that Spitzer will go after people. I don't really believe it. I also know that Stringer is viewed as a weak link. But let's not forget that Stringer has appointed Patrick Sullivan to the PEP time and again. One voice but a strong voice who holds the Bloomberg scum accountable. That alone gives him my vote.

And Stringer also slapped down Eva Moskowitz when she ran for Manhattan Borough President 8 years ago.

Hmmm, maybe that wasn't the best idea given that she is building a massive machine through her charter network. That is why she is making sure to open up in every district in the city. I'm betting we see a Moskowitz mayoral bid in 4 or 8 years.

Let's see now. Lhota for 8 years. Then Moskowitz for 8. Do the math. I'm ordering pins for the UFT leadership to wear: December 31, 2029. 


  1. Wait until after ad season and then see where Weiner's numbers are. Before the independent anti-Quinn ads ran, she was at 37%. Now she's at 22%. Don't be so sure it's Weiner/Quinn in the runoff and don't be so sure the black vote goes for Weiner. Remember how he got elected to City Council by sending out racist mailers. You can be sure that will be used against him to lower those black support numbers. Also, while you and I are paying a lot of attention to this race, most New Yorkers are not. I'm not convinced we're at the Weiner/Quinn runoff just yet. If the numbers still look like this in late August, then yeah, that's we're where at. But there will be some heavy advertising before that.

    1. I'll bet he can talk his way out of that one. Money is coming in and Clintons seem OK with wife campaigning with him. (Where is Spitzer's wife?) If it comes down to Quinn and Weiner in runoff what do you do?

  2. Well, I gotta admit, on a news week like this one, you managed to write something seriously depressing. No mean feat, that.

    1. Depress I must. Sure you don't want to change your endorsement of Thompson to, say, Koch's corpse since we'd be better off?

  3. Barring a major miracle (John Liu) - it doesn't make much of a difference to working NewYorkers...IMHO.

    I'd like to see Spitzer as mayor next time around.


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