Friday, May 27, 2016

#MORE2016 UFT Election Vote Count Report As Day 2 Begins - GOTV Worked - But for Whom?

Election numbers up by 10,000 - but who got those votes?
At MORE victory party - As usual I stick my big head in the way

First let me say it was wonderful hanging out with the MORE folks at the victory party last night - yes a victory for MORE for coming out of some difficult times to unite for this election and work as a team and continue building the blocks of a effective opposition.

Up almost 3000 in elementary schools, about a 1000 in MS, and 1000 in HS -- these are the 3 divisions I focus on.

But we should also note that they are up 3000 in functionals - which includes non-teachers in DOE PLUS (we found out yesterday from Unity) all District 75 teachers - something we must protest in the future -- and non-DOE people -- nurses, charter schools, home day care workers. The UFT is over half non-NYC teachers, which further locks Unity in. Retiree votes went up by 2000, but their share of the vote fell from 52% to around 46% - check my math please. Since they went over the 23,000 vote threshold for the first time their votes will be counted as .9something.

That is why I focus on the 3 divisions where retirees have no role.

You can look at the 10,000 increase in a few way. Take out the 2000 retirees and the 3000 functionals, which leaves around 5000 votes to carve up for the 3 divisions.

Let me do some speculating before seeing the numbers.

Elem: Unity dropped from 7K plus to 5K plus between 2010 and 2013 - so where did those 3000 new elem votes go this time?  I assume Unity may end up somewhere between 2010 and 2013 or maybe even it the 2010 numbers, which if they do will leave around 1000 for MORE and Solidarity to divide- say they come up somewhere around 3000-3500 between them even in a best case scenario for Unity? Maybe a little dent? Best case would be to keep Unity under 7000 and get close to 4000.

MS: 1000 more votes. Hmmm - interesting. Portelos told me he felt Solidarity had some strength in the MS - so if a nice portion of those 1000 went to him and MORE/NA increased their paltry totals from 2013 and Unity took a portion we might see some uptick there.

HS: This is the big battle. Feelings are Unity and MORE/NA are running neck and neck and Solidarity votes make the difference. I do not subscribe the the theory that all Solidarity votes come out of the MORE batch since I assume they brought some new voters to the scene. As Eterno points out, if either MORE/NA or Unity gets in the range of 2370 they win a majority. Thus Solidarity becomes the wild card here.

Since opposition totals have not varied all that much in the elections from 2004 on (Unity totals have bounced around), we use the last election as a base of sorts. If you want to check the 2013 results, see the MORE post:
https://morecaucusnyc.org/2013/04/27/2013-uft-election-results-and-analysis/

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For the first time I can remember we don't have results the same day the count began. Count resumes today at 8AM and I will be there. I couldn't blog yesterday due to bad wifi at the AAA which was in the basement of 120 Broadway. Being in a room from  9 AM-6PM with a batch of Unity/UFT leaders, along with Portelos and some Solidarity people, joined by some MORE/New Action, turned into quite a party.  Spent a lot of time chatting with Portelos and Paul Hogan about all kinds of stuff - he promised me he wasn't taping and wouldn't post any of my comments in the future.

But I'll get into some of those details over the weekend if I have time (see Afterburn for why I may not have time this weekend.)

James Eterno has the details we were calling in to him yesterday and I am repeating his entire reports below. James intends to hobble into town later to meet us at the diner for the ICE rice-pudding fest.

UFT ELECTION NUMBERS STRAIGHT FROM VOTE COUNT

Camille Eterno and Norm Scott are reporting from the American Arbitration Association where votes are being counted in the UFT Election. Here are the latest numbers from Norm:

53,000 voted, that is up 10,000 from 2013.

Only about 2000 of that increase came from retirees who in 2016 make up 46% of the voters. In 2013, retirees made up 52% of the voters.

Updates
We have a breakdown of where the votes came from.

10,026 came from elementary schools compared to 7331 in 2013 and 10,292 in 2010.

2856 came from middle schools compared to 1879 in 2013 and 2881 in 2010.

4747 came from high schools compared to 3808 in 2013 and 5203 in 2010.

10,933 came from functionals (non teachers) compared to 7704 in 2013 and 10,629 in 2010.

24,464 came from retirees compared to 22,462 in 2013.

It looks like it is going to be a very long night as new rules mean slate voters could still vote for individuals under some circumstances.

In addition, all of the Portelos/Solidarity votes are non-slate and will take time to sort out.

As for the possibility of MORE-NEW ACTION winning the high schools, we would need 2374 high school votes to get our candidates majorities. That would mean an increase of 492 from the combined MORE-NEW ACTION's slate totals from 2013 of 1882. It is a bit of a lift.

Unity would need an increase of a combination of their votes and the new Solidarity votes of 782 compared to 2013 Unity totals of 1592 slate votes to win high schools outright.

It might be very close in the high schools. We ask as we did before: where did those new voters go?

UPDATE 2
The total number of ballots that were printed and mailed is 189,469 (53,026 voted; Return Rate=28%)
o   Elementary: 35,606 (10,026 voted; Return Rate=28.2%)
o   JHS: 11,197  (2856 voted; Return Rate= 25.5.%)
o   HS (Academic/CTE): 19,539   (4747 voted; Return Rate=24.2%)
o   Functional Chapters: 46, 731   (10,933 voted; Return Rate=23.4%)
o   Retiree: 62,991   (24,464 voted; Return Rate=38.8%)


Afterburn

It's been an intense few days. Weds night I went to a 5 hour Shakespeare presentation by the Irondale Ensemble in Fort Greene and didn't get back to my apartment until 1AM. I woke up at 4:30, hit the gym for a while and was at AAA from 9-6, then off to the MORE victory party until 10PM, where I proved I don't know how to take a selfie.


I expected a free day in the city today until the 4PM ICE election analysis but now have to head back over to the AAA until who knows what time. And through all this I am missing rehearsals at the Rockaway Theatre Company for Follies which is opening next Friday.

And tomorrow we are getting together with the crew that did our movie - Mollie, Darren, Julie and Lisa D. with all our spouses to see the Red Bulls soccer match - my first ever soccer game - with Lisa's son Alex on the team. Since this is the start of hell week at the RTC there are rehearsals both Sat and Sunday. Monday is the only day off - and these rehearsals last for HOURS.

OK - I'm going to stop bitching - I don't have to go into a school and deal with admin slugs -- and get ready to leave for the AAA.

Looking forward to the ICE gathering today at 4PM to schmooze about the election and eat rice pudding.


1 comment:

  1. Paul Hogan? Crocodile Dundee was invited to the AAA?

    ReplyDelete

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