Friday, May 9, 2008
Hillary in '12
The campaign has begun.
The surprise is that so many pundits don't see it.
They ask"What is the rationale?" for Clinton to continue.
It's all about getting elected president – in 2012, stupid.
Education Notes has been speculating on this for months.
March 26 Education Notes: Is Clinton Strategy Designed to Undermine Obama Chances to Win? We focus on the role the UFT/AFT has played and will continue to play in the goal of making Hillary president.
The Feb. 12 The Randi Weingarten Succession Obsession in where we claim Hill in '12 campaign begins the day Obama gets the nomination.
Randi, Hillary and Oback on April 12 inspired a comment asking what Weingarten has to gain with a Republican administration. A lot to gain in terms of having an enemy to blame all the things Unity can't win for teachers. Dictatorships require enemies. McCain would be perfect.
And if Obama were to win, having him in the White House is not user friendly to the UFT. Better to wait for the big enchilada Clintons, which can inspire so many sleepovers in the Lincoln bedroom. Pajama parties, anyone?
Richard Gizbert's Hillary's $6.4 Million is a Wise Investment, for 2012 in the Huffington Post (May 7) makes many of the same points. "Clinton's only chance, for 2012, is to continue to damage Obama so badly that McCain wins in November. That would allow Clinton to take a run at McCain or some other Republican, four years from now."
I posted the entire piece at Norms Notes.
Scenario: Obama loses to McCain - the bigger the loss the better for Clinton (the longer the Clinton campaign, the better the chance to bloody Obama and the more votes lost).
McCain is a disaster as president.
Voila: Victory in '12 for the old war horse who will have another 4 years to build up resources and power. That is why I think the very idea of an Obama/Clinton ticket is so unlikely – unless they think someone will try to bump Obama off – something in the year 2008, 40 years after MLK, is on so many people's minds. (Imagine the crazy charge to come from the right wing Clinton-haters.)
I still think that no matter what the voting patterns in the primaries, Obama still has the better chance considering the enormous magnet for hatred the Clintons have become for too many people.
While there is truth to the point that Obama is winning the black vote overwhelmingly while losing some of the white vote, the sooner the campaign ends, the better Obama's chances of winning over the Clinton votes, though my feeling is that racism is so endemic that any little excuse – and the Clintons are providing plenty of excuses– and a sizable chunk of people will refuse to vote for Obama under any circumstances. This doesn't necessarily mean he can't beat McCain because of the overwhelming factors of the Republican failures.
So, the Clintons are going to do everything possible to make sure that doesn't happen using the "let everyone have their say" argument. They will then make a big show of supporting Obama -wink, wink - after the convention, knowing it is too late. Remember to do what we always tell you about Randi Weingarten - watch what they really do, not what they say.
At the April Delegate Assembly Weingarten was asked - will you be giving Obama the same level of support you are giving to Hillary, she smiled (sort of) and said, "We don't want McCain to win, do we?" The tone with which she answered gave something away. Then this was followed by a slap at Obama. We've also heard about chapter leader training has been used to slam Obama - a great way to get the word out to members without being on the public record.
After the election, the Clintons - and Weingarten - will spend the next few years mending fences.
And they will be aided by the entire AFT/UFT apparatus. Behind the scenes of course. That will be Weingarten's focus as AFT president.
Important to UFT members is how this plays out in the amount of real support Obama will get considering the UFT/AFT has such a big stake in Hillary.
The fact is that the entire union was manipulated into supporting Hillary with not one debate taking place in bodies like the Delegate Assembly or Executive Board. More intriguing, with Obama winning 90% of black votes, where have the black members of Unity Caucus and their supporters in New Action been hiding? Are we being led to believe that not one black member is for Obama? Not one even is willing to stand up and call for a debate at any level?
Where have the Obama supporters in the UFT been all this time? And will they continue to sit by in silence? Will someone get up at an upcoming DA or Exec Bd meeting and call for the UFT to end the sham and support Obama?
There's a Delegate Assembly on May 14. Will we continue to hear the sounds of silence?